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Supreme Novices 2017

Ruby said at tonight's paddy power preview night that it was not a certainty that he'd ride Melon. Huge negative for Melin backers, if he was that special there wouldn't be a decision to be made
 
David Mullins maybe?

fair point! forgot about them and no back numbers either! i have a docket for 50/1...fair to say its not been straight forward but wouldnt disagree he has a squeak...but he looks relatively clueless to me still so as you say would need have grown up massively for this!
 
Ruby said at tonight's paddy power preview night that it was not a certainty that he'd ride Melon. Huge negative for Melin backers, if he was that special there wouldn't be a decision to be made

Not sure I'd take this at face value myself. I'd think Ruby knows pretty well what he's riding... he just likes to say stuff like this, in my opinion.
 
Not sure I'd take this at face value myself. I'd think Ruby knows pretty well what he's riding... he just likes to say stuff like this, in my opinion.

Yeah, agree 100%.

Just like he wasn't sure if he'd ride Hurricane Fly, or Faugheen...
 
If Ruby jumped off Melon, Melon would be 20/1 again.

To be fair to him, if Melon gets injured in the next few days, he'd have looked pretty dumb. You can understand why he leaves it as late as possible
 
My pricing i put up earlier was the first time I've properly sat down and looked at the form and markets...obviously i have been looking 100s of times daily as the prices etc.. but now we know roughly the runners it allowed me to get looking a bit deeper.

Re Moon Racer, i certainly think he should be fav on all known form. There are many that crab him, his connections, trainer etc. but that doesn't change things. I wouldnt be a massive fan of Pipe either + to be honest this form this season his form has been awful. i think this horse is incredibly fragile, but why give him such a big race first time out in a lowly race at Perth? Couldnt they have started him off in say the Grade 2 at Cheltenham that he won + progressed from there to say the Tolworth or something? I understand we are dealing with a fragile being who hasn't been seen much at all but this would be one of the worries i would have.

At this moment in time i wont be taking any of the odds on offer about MR, but on the day with that Skybet offer, if he is still around the price he is now, i probably will. I would think the bookies will try and take Melon on early doors on the Tues, but plenty of the Mullins fans will mean he wont drift too much like his "form" would almost warrant.

I can't have Ballyandy as a betting proposition...I could see Movewiththetimes being interesting, but watching back his race vs BA, he does seem to either be still very clueless about the game, or have a slight attitude issue. Either or, this is a -ve for Tuesday, but long term he could be the best here.

As many have said Bunk Off Early was the one to take out of the Deloitte for the Supreme, and i would love a Supreme winner in the Supreme lol. I wouldnt think he would be my bet, but if the weather stays quite dry, he could be a danger to all.

I like both Crack Mome and Cilaos Emery. Crack Mome as mentioned above may be still too immature for this but the ground should see improvement. I would say the ground will also see massive improve from Cilaos Emery...one in which i have noticed i have missed off my pricing lol duh! I would say he will be the 4th jockey booking so be slightly bigger in the market than Crack Mome- i wouldnt discount him at all though. He looked decent in his bumper like year at Punchestown, and i thought was quite electric vs Joey Sasa. He let himself down against Mick Jazz which i didn't see coming at all! Still he could be a play.

I sound like i am backing about 4 in the above, but it'll be more based on Tuesdays market- i have 50/1 on Crack Mome, and will possibly be laying that off. Leaving me with possibly 2 plays to consider from the above....
 
Ruby said at tonight's paddy power preview night that it was not a certainty that he'd ride Melon. Huge negative for Melin backers, if he was that special there wouldn't be a decision to be made

He wants Lets Dance he wants her i can feel it :devilish:
 
Melon been given a rating of 153 after ONE run by Phil Smith, anyone know where I can apply for his job?
 
Even worse Broken Soul is on 140.

He did say it was the work of David Dickinson. I assume he means the cheap as chips bloke.

Virtually every other runner should have a higher rating than Melon.

As for Walsh he love's punters doesn't he? I wouldn't take any notice of him.
 
Phil Smith on the hype wagon. 5lbs clear on ratings for Melon after 1 run. Jeez if he wins what will he be 178 lol
 
Any ideas wen actual runners will be declared or will we need to wait until monday
 
Moon Racer decision on Saturday:
Conversation

12m
Harry Drew‏ @thechop333
Just to let people know, Saturday is when the decision will be made on Moon Racer


1

10


5m
Colin Rice‏ @colin_rice84
@thechop333 easy decision. Do the right thing. #supreme





4m
Harry Drew‏ @thechop333
@colin_rice84 not what I want!





3m
Colin Rice‏ @colin_rice84
@thechop333 if you're in racing you must be a winner? And your chances of winning the supreme are so much greater than CH.




in reply to @colin_rice84

Harry Drew‏ @thechop333

@colin_rice84 he's 8, fragile,already a festival winner and already beaten the favourite and is 3/3 at the course.. why not?
7:24 pm · 9 Mar 2017
 
He make a good point - 8, fragile, beat Yanworth and great course form. It's a no brainer me - have a shot at glory!
 
Can see why they are struggling with this one TBH. Really tricky decision.
 
I priced him up for CH as a 12/1 shot...He has some lovely form, but its from previous seasons and as i said on this thread previously, i don't like his campaign. Fragile or not.
 
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Sounds like they've made their minds up for the CH a few weeks ago. Fair enough if they gave us something to justify how they feel it's going to improve by a stone on it's last run but instead, Pipe has openly said it took a while to get it back afterwards and they are holding onto course form and beating Yanworth in the bumper. I'd want double figures CH although the popularity of it all will see it go about 5/1 if CH decision made on Saturday. Based on ratings of recent supreme winners, moon racer will have to be a whole lot better than douvan, altior and faugheen. He's never as good as those for me.
 
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Not keen on his campaign myself Jack but if I was in their boots I'd need about 5 seconds to make my decision. It will realistically be his only chance to win a champion hurdle