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2017 Mares Hurdle

That would be one of the bigger Mullins s**tstorms...

10am 8/3; VVM is confirmed for the Mares
12:30pm 8/3; VVM is staying at home
 
loveracing said:
Ive always thought VVM would go Stayers.
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Same here and wrote in the Stayers Thread end of January that she has never looked like a 2 miler this season anyway, looks sluggish or lack of pace over that trip, can't see her going CH route.
 
Hard to believe Ruby won't have anything for the CH though?
 
Think will have to give up this ante post lark. Still none d wider on vvm target or Moon racer both still multiple entries. It's a hard game
 
Yanworth 9/1
UDS 7/1
Wholestone 16/1
VVM 10/1 stayers

Looks so good if she runs there!!!
 
I'm hoping VVM is going for Champion hurdle, for me shes a better mare than Limini and a fast run 2m will suit.I dont think shes an out and out stayer and think in an open year the Champion Hurdle is the race for her.
 
From Mullins:

We just decided not to do it,” Mullins said shortly after Limini’s name failed to appear on the list of horses entered for the Champion Hurdle. “I really don’t want to say much more about it now. I imagine she’ll run in the mares’ race.”

Asked what his decision about Limini means for Vroum Vroum Mag, Mullins said: “I really don’t know. We don’t have to make that decision yet, anyway. The only decision we’ve made this morning is not to pay the £20,000 to put Limini in the Champion.”

Asked for the main reason why he had ruled out the Champion Hurdle for Limini, Mullins replied: “We just decided it wasn’t worth it.”
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From the RP: Willie Mullins said on Wednesday: "Limini is fine, but we just decided not to supplement her for the Champion Hurdle. The plan now is for her to go for the Grade 1 OLBG Mares' Hurdle.

"No decision has been made on which race Vroum Vroum Mag will run in. She has plenty of options so we'll wait and see."

I'd imagine it's one of 3 options for VVM now, CH, Stayers' or doesn't turn up at all, don't think they'll have them against each other personally.
 
Tuesday's runners travel over on Saturday so you'd imagine that a piece of work between now and then will make their decision for them. I'd heard the Champion or the Mares for VVM but there's been time for a dozen changes of mind since then.
 
Just had to take some of the 6/4 Sky kindly offer on Limini...
 
Rich Ricci:

"What you can do is to be too clever by half, spread yourself too thin and walk away with nothing. I'm not interested in that after the year we've had so, although it wouldn't be my usual stance, I wouldn't be against both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag taking each other on.

Both are working well, there is still a week to go and we won't be calling that until the weekend I'd imagine."

Surely not?!
 
It'll be Limini for me in this now. The vibes about VVM aren't great and if Limini doesn't run here, I'll be firmly in the Apples Jade camp
 
Originally I've been saying I think VVM is a better mare than Limini ... and that is why VVM would/should go CH (2m G1 winning fomr) but that can't be the right reasoning....

They've also said she DOESN'T get 3 miles...... Ricci has contradicted himself yet again saying they might run against each other.

My gut now thinks VVM might "spark" this week and go for the CH..... but I feel like I've have got the right answer by the wrong method.***

Almost a waste of time thinking about it until we know, the prices are pretty accurate. If they do run against each other I'll have to spend AGES working out which one is better for me :devilish:




*** what was that brilliant quote... "it's like spending 20 minutes studying the owners colours and horses names and coming up with the right answer"
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
It'll be Limini for me in this now. The vibes about VVM aren't great and if Limini doesn't run here, I'll be firmly in the Apples Jade camp
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I REALLY can't see them both running in this at all, but if they do...

Bit of a catch 22 with VVM now. I actually really liked Limini's last run and thought she would have had as good a chance as most of the field in the CH and a better chance than VVM as I just don't think 2 miles is enough of a trip for her (VVM), with the 2m4 trip absolutely ideal.

If this was the only entry for each horse and say Graham Wylie trained one or the other i'd be siding with VVM 100%. But...

The problem I have now though is if VVM improves in her work and shows that spark at home over the next few days - they'll go CH.

If she doesn't, then it comes down to 2 options : bypass the festival and hope she comes good later in the Spring (a possibility maybe with the fight for the Irish Championship - keep her back for Punchestown and get her back to full form then??) or go up against Limini.
So if they take on Limini they still haven't been able to get her right and that would have to be a concern - as good as Mullins and co are for getting a horse to raise their game on the day. With it being the easiest race she could line up in maybe they decide to have Limini in there as number 1 and VVM to pick up the pieces in the race if needed as they might as well run her just incase...

I hate siding for a horse primarily on who the jockey riding is (a factor but not a deciding factor) but then add in Ruby's choice and if he sided with Limini i'd have to switch over from fancying VVM

But anyway I don't think they'll both run so nonsense really...:highly_amused:
 
The OLBG Mares Hurdle is one of the newer races, introduced in 2008, and is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4F. The one horse that has dominated this race is Quevega, who has won 6 of the 9 runnings. For obvious reasons, her dominance means that looking at some trends based on the winners will be meaningless but if you omit her from some statistics, we may be able to find the mare most likely to take over her mantle.

http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-day-1/mares-hurdle-trends-2017-1487879108

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Quevega won the 6 runnings between 2009 & 2014 (aged 5 to 10), it may be more enlightening to look at age stats when removing her from the race.

Age stats w/o Quevega (i.e. the 2nd to Quevega is counted as winner)

4yo: 0-0-3

5yo: 1-1-23

6yo: 4-4-44

7yo: 3-5-38

8yo: 1-6-27

9yo+: 0-2-9

10yo+: 0-0-2

The only horse to ever win it aged older than 8 was Quevega, as a 9 & 10 year old. 6yos have done best of the runners, when excluding Quevega, winning 4 of 8.



Breeding

The French-bred Quevega has won 6 of the 9 runnings, but when excluding her from the 9 renewals, breeding stats read:

Irish Bred: 3-12-61

British Bred: 3-5-53

French Bred: 2-1-22

German bred: 1-0-1

USA bred: 0-0-1



Recent/Past Form of 11 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega

10 of 11 finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 completed starts (exception 5th in grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)

11 of 11 finished in first 2 on last completed start (8 won)

10 of 11 won 1 of last 2 starts

9 of 11 posted an RPR of 140+ last time

10 of 11 had run in past 55 days

8 of 11 had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles races

11 of 11 had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August

10 of 11 had won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F

9 of 11 had won a class 1 NH flat race or hurdle (2 exceptions were 2nd in a grade 2)

10 of 11 had contested a grade 1 or 2 under NH rules (exception had won two listed hurdles)



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 11111 (5-0-5)

Warwick OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Rons Dream): 210 (1-1-3) War 8 Feb

Irish Stallions EBF Mares Champion Hurdle winner (Whiteout): 035U2F (0-2-6)

Grabel Mares Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 030 (0-1-3)

Doncaster OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 3P04 (0-1-4)

Willis Towers EBF Mares Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 0306 (0-1-4)

32Red.com Mares' Hurdle winner (Lifeboat Mona): 37890 (0-1-5)

Trisoft Mares Handicap Hurdle winner (Lifeboat Mona): 57 (0-0-2)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Final winner (Jer's Girl): 040 (0-0-3)

Kempton OLBG Mares Hurdle winner (Surtee Du Berlais): 850 (0-0-3) Kem 25 Nov

Record of first 4 from World Series Hurdle: 211111 (5-1-6)

5 of 9 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 11114

2 of 9 winners ran in Prix La Barka, finishing 97



Other Races (11 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega)

5 of 11 ran in Warfield Hurdle, finishing 2112

2 of 11 ran in Mares listed bumper at previous year's Aintree Festival, finishing 01

2 of 11 ran in World Series Hurdle, finishing 14

2 of 11 ran in the Inkerman EBF Mares Novice Hurdle, finishing 11

2 of 11 ran in Warwick Mares Listed Hurdle, finishing 11



Trainers

Willie Mullins (8-1-12) has won last 8 runnings, 6 with Quevega and with Glens Melody & Vroum Vroum Mag in last 2 years.

Harry Fry (0-1-4) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-6) have each trained 1 placed finisher in the last 2 runnings.

Alan King (0-1-5) trained the 3rd in 2014, his four other runners finished 4th, 5th, 4th & fell.

Irish trained runners (8-6-36) have won last 8 (6 of those were Quevega). If you remove Willie Mullins runners from the Irish contingent, their record becomes 0-5-24.



Price

6 of 9 winners were Quevega, who was sent off favourite on each occasion. Vroum Vroum Mag was an odds on winner in 2016, Whiteoak won it in 2008 at 20/1 and 2nd favourite Glens Melody winning it in 2015 as a result of Annie Power’s final hurdle fall.

Removing Quevega’s 6 wins, 14 of the other 21 places have been filled by double-figure priced runners and at least one horse price 16/1 or bigger has made the frame in every renewal (2nd & 3rd in 2016 were 66/1 & 40/1, 3rd in 2015 was 16/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2014 were 14/1 & 25/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2013 were priced 33/1 & 40/1, while in 2012 the 2nd & 3rd went off at 14/1 & 66/1).

Favourite (7-1-10) has won 7 of 9 (6 of 7 were Quevega), giving a level stakes profit of 5.03.



Summary:

Based on trends from past 8 runnings of horses that ran well (not Quevega) look for a horse:

- Aged 6 or 7

- Finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts

- Finished in first 2 last time (in past 55 days)

- Won 1 of last 2 starts

- Posted an RPR of 140+ last time

- Had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August

- Has won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F

- Had won a class 1 race under NH rules (or placed in a graded hurdle)

- Made racecourse debut in a NH race

- Finished in first 2 in Warfield, Warwick OLBG.com Mares and/or 2015 World Series Hurdle

- Trained by Willie Mullins
 
Couldn't have Limini for this with anyones money.

Not at all convinced she is ready for 2m 4f up that Cheltenham hill. Looks a speed horse to me. Quevega used to stay really well to win these.

Think the mares novice was perfect for her last year at 2m 1f against inferior opposition, and Apples Jade can make this a real test, as we saw in her Triumph run last year.
 
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