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Supreme Novices 2017

Melon is strong enough on the machine today LR but he was weak yesterday afternoon.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think it's the Nrnb bookies realising that he was completely the wrong price for the supreme, rather than people following the crowd.
Click to expand...

:encouragement: Money in their satchels for a week or so .... they can boast about the money taken overall .... I think NW is nailed on to go for the Neptune and this is just a bit of bookies hoping ther money that went in, never comes back out.... easier to spend when it is already in there?
 
Fehily said at preview last night it would have to be very soft for Neon wolf to go here
 
26 left

Azzuri
Ballyandy
Beyond Conceit
Bravissimo
Bunk Off Early
Capital Force
Cilaos Emery
Crack Mome
Elgin
Glaring
High Bridge
Labaik
Magna Carter
Melon
Mohaayed
Montalbano
Moon Racer
Movewiththetimes
Neon Wolf
Peter The Mayo Man
Pingshou
Pleasant Company
Riven Light
River Wylde
Airlie Beach
Let's Dance

No Finians Oscar, so he looks Neptune bound. Surprised to see Let's Dance left in.
 
Sorted by RPR

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
26 21111 Let´s Dance44 5 11-0 W P Mullins75 — 126 160
19 1-111 Neon Wolf52 6 11-7 Harry Fry67 148 116 159
25 111111 Airlie Beach100 7 11-0 W P Mullins75 — 129 158
2 4-2321 Ballyandy31 6 11-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies40 135 143 158
18 1-1512 Movewiththetimes31 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls47 Mark Walsh 136 143 158
24 10111 River Wylde17 6 11-7 Nicky Henderson75 135 135 153
9 21122 Elgin17 5 11-7 Alan King33 Wayne Hutchinson 142 134 152
5 12 Bunk Off Early30 5 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 127 152
12 11RR6 Labaik16 6 11-7 Gordon Elliott30 — 116 150
20 11123 Peter The Mayo Man17 7 11-7 Neil Mulholland69 142 139 149
8 1-12 Crack Mome59 5 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 119 149
7 112 Cilaos Emery37 5 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 130 149
3 11 Beyond Conceit24 8 11-7 Nicky Henderson75 — 124 147
17 11/211 Moon Racer121 8 11-7 David Pipe29 141 93 147
14 1 Melon44 5 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 112 145
11 16-111 High Bridge31 6 11-7 Ben Pauling40 140 119 143
21 8/414 Pingshou72 7 11-7 Colin Tizzard100 133 125 142
15 241 Mohaayed37 5 11-7 Dan Skelton42 134 117 141
23 148 Riven Light30 5 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 113 139
6 2431 Capital Force33 6 11-7 Henry De Bromhead50 — 113 136
16 2-15 Montalbano44 5 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 90 136
1 523-21 Azzuri9 5 11-7 Dan Skelton42 134 103 136
13 351107 Magna Cartor102 7 11-7 John Joseph Hanlon100 — 105 135
10 15 Glaring78 6 11-7 Amanda Perrett — 105 134
4 3/17 Bravissimo30 6 11-7 W P Mullins75 — 107 132
22 3P-141 Pleasant Company17 9 11-7 W P Mullins75 — — —
 
Lets Dance still left in the Supreme at this declaration stage. My 14/1 ticket is still live, but for how long lol
 
This is how i've priced up the Supreme.

Note that i haven't included some horses that are 50/50 for that reason- Neon Wolf the main absentee but he's probably less than 50/50 to come here. Lets dance no chance + Airlie Beach same.

Factored in WPM comments re Melons work at home + Ruby rides.
MWTT eye catching last nov in chelt, and ran ok vs BA in Betfair giving pound..upgraded him.


TOTAL %
4 / 1 Moon racer
6 / 1 Ballyandy
6 / 1 BOE
6 / 1 Melon
6 / 1 Movewiththetimes
12 / 1 Crack Mome
12 / 1 River Wylde
16 / 1 High Bridge
25 / 1 Pingshou
33 / 1 Beyond Conceipt
33 / 1 Elgin

Do any of these prices astound you or interest you?
 
jack1092 said:
This is how i've priced up the Supreme.

Note that i haven't included some horses that are 50/50 for that reason- Neon Wolf the main absentee but he's probably less than 50/50 to come here. Lets dance no chance + Airlie Beach same.

Factored in WPM comments re Melons work at home + Ruby rides.
MWTT eye catching last nov in chelt, and ran ok vs BA in Betfair giving pound..upgraded him.


TOTAL %
4 / 1 Moon racer
6 / 1 Ballyandy
6 / 1 BOE
6 / 1 Melon
6 / 1 Movewiththetimes
12 / 1 Crack Mome
12 / 1 River Wylde
16 / 1 High Bridge
25 / 1 Pingshou
33 / 1 Beyond Conceipt
33 / 1 Elgin

Do any of these prices astound you or interest you?
Click to expand...

Pingshou much shorter than I was hoping for :devilish:
 
Paddy Power Racing‏ @pphorseracing
Ruby says it's not confirmed he rides Melon. Heard today Neon Wolf might go in the Supreme.
 
So many mixed messages about Lets dance anything is possible. Champagne Fever made a late switch too. They have been at this for years.
 
No Bunk Off Early jack?
 
Moon Racer for me if he turns up in this. He's just got that extra gear that I don't think many of these have and they won't be able to live with him when he turns it on. Should be a Champion Hurdle horse for a reason in my humble opinion.

Still intrigued by Crack Mome on a bit of good ground, and also still like Elgin as an each way punt - think he'll look better on a stiffer track if he can jump a little better. That's well priced in for me though.
 
The more I look at this the more I think Crack Mome could be value, well regarded and excuses last time out. Those that were in behind him have by and large done well since, looks sure to improve for better ground and a strong pace
 
I think it's telling that Willie picked Crack Mome for the Moscow Flyer and that he went off 4/11. But I thought he looked a long way from the finished article that day. Will need to have matured an awful lot in a short space of time.

But looks a lively outsider.
 
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