• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2017 Ultima Handicap

I was on Cause of Causes but seeing as he hasnt been entered back to the drawing board. The Druids Nephew could creep into the equation here for me
 
After an initial glance I will be looking at the following to start

Mall Dini - bit of an obvious one but if he was lucky enough to get in below 145 then he should be of interest. Course form and Novices have a good record here.

Belami Des Pictons - might be high enough in the weights off 148 but I think last years winner was off something similar. Again a Novice which is the angle I like in this race. Venetia has a habit of picking up a handicap at the festival and although this one has been winning on softer ground, she has stated that he should handle good ground too. Also, other significant progeny have won on genuine good ground.

Singlefarmpayment - has multiple entries but if he does take in a handicap I think it will be this one. Has course form over this trip and is again a Novice. Looks like he is still on an upwards curve and may have been fortunate to be brought down in his last run as his mark will remain unchanged. Should get a nice racing weight off 142.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Singlefarmpayment - has multiple entries but if he does take in a handicap I think it will be this one. Has course form over this trip and is again a Novice. Looks like he is still on an upwards curve and may have been fortunate to be brought down in his last run as his mark will remain unchanged. Should get a nice racing weight off 142.
Click to expand...

I think it will be a handicap for Singlefarmpayment but wouldn't be surprised if it was the Kim Muir. He hasn't been missed in the market for either race though. I backed him in his last race when he was brought down and he was still traveling as well as Royal Vacation, when many of the field were just starting to get pushed along.

To be honest, I'll be backing him wherever he turns up but I'd hope for bigger than 12/1.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think it will be a handicap for Singlefarmpayment but wouldn't be surprised if it was the Kim Muir. He hasn't been missed in the market for either race though. I backed him in his last race when he was brought down and he was still traveling as well as Royal Vacation, when many of the field were just starting to get pushed along.

To be honest, I'll be backing him wherever he turns up but I'd hope for bigger than 12/1.
Click to expand...

The reason I think he could end up here is that Tom George has A Good Skin in the Kim Muir again. Last years runner up, now on a lower mark and no Cause Of Causes to deal with ;-)
 
Well spotted JM. I can only get 10/1 Nrnb - I'd like to think he'd be bigger than that the night before, especially as he isn't from a high profile stable.

What do you make of Southfield Royals for the Kim Muir? He was favourite when finishing 4th in last season's 4 miler, after tiring up the hill. He's got a mark of 141 and has only raced once this season when running down the field in a big handicap in January. His mark looks very lenient and connections managed to book Nina for the ride last season - I wonder if they could get another high profile amateur for this race.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Well spotted JM. I can only get 10/1 Nrnb - I'd like to think he'd be bigger than that the night before, especially as he isn't from a high profile stable.

What do you make of Southfield Royals for the Kim Muir? He was favourite when finishing 4th in last season's 4 miler, after tiring up the hill. He's got a mark of 141 and has only raced once this season when running down the field in a big handicap in January. His mark looks very lenient and connections managed to book Nina for the ride last season - I wonder if they could get another high profile amateur for this race.
Click to expand...

Potentially he is well in on last years form and he also had Derek O'Connor jocked up at one point before he jumped ship. My only reservation is his lack of race time this season and I was not overly impressed with his come back. However, if he came right for Cheltenham he'd be a major player.
 
You couldn't be impressed by his comeback but he needed to be dropped at least 2lb to qualify for the Kim Muir so it was hopefully part of the plan. That's how I'm reading it anyway.
 
Had a message from a good mate who has quite a few contacts and he has been told by the girl who rides out singlefarmpayment that this is the target and the stable is pretty confident.
 
jonthehammer said:
Had a message from a good mate who has quite a few contacts and he has been told by the girl who rides out singlefarmpayment that this is the target and the stable is pretty confident.
Click to expand...

Could be very useful that.
We're at a stage with AP punting where all the value has gone, every bookie will push out prices on the day and include a multitude of special incentives such as 5/6 places, bonus for winning by certain distance etc, the only advantage us punters can gain right now is by betting to known target, e.g Singlefarmpayment is 10/1 with NRNB or 14/1 without.

I use the Minella Rocco example once again, last years 4 miler he was general 5/1 fav two weeks from the race with NRNB, 3 places 1/5 odds, the market was formed and he could be backed at 10/1, 4 places 1/4 odds.
The lesson here is that patience can pay, unless you have known target info...
 
Hoorah! I'd backed Singlefarmpayment in the 4m, Kim Muir and Ultima but my biggest stake is in the Ultima - where I have 14/1 NRNB with PP.

I guess there is a small angle if you fancy something and Bet365 are at a price you're happy with as they've been not only NRNB but also BOG for some weeks now, which helps a bit with potential drifters at SP, if not necessarily horses that drift a couple of days before but then get backed in again on the day (i.e. you wouldn't have got the very best 10/1 about Minella Rocco but you would have got the 8/1 SP).
 
Has anyone heard where Martello Tower is likely to go? (entered in both this and the 4-Miler)

Seems to meet a lot of the "criteria" for having a good crack at this (Chase mark still fairly well below his hurdles mark, festival form over 3 miles, lightly raced Chaser/room for improvement)

Especially keen to know your thoughts JackieMoon... :encouragement:
 
Leman14 said:
Has anyone heard where Martello Tower is likely to go? (entered in both this and the 4-Miler)

Seems to meet a lot of the "criteria" for having a good crack at this (Chase mark still fairly well below his hurdles mark, festival form over 3 miles, lightly raced Chaser/room for improvement)

Especially keen to know your thoughts JackieMoon... :encouragement:
Click to expand...

I do like Novices in this race and he has course and distance form so he should be on any shortlist. As with all the Irish horses it's difficult to form a strong opinion without knowing their UK rating. He has strong form in the book from early in the season but has been inconsistent his last 2 runs (maybe to protect his mark). His Irish rating of 143 seems fair and his form with A Genie In a Bottle is strong too.

The only thing I did read was that Patrick Mullins may ride him in the 4 miler but as Willie will likely have something for that race too, they may opt to send Martello Tower here or the Kim Muir.

NRNB essential.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I do like Novices in this race and he has course and distance form so he should be on any shortlist. As with all the Irish horses it's difficult to form a strong opinion without knowing their UK rating. He has strong form in the book from early in the season but has been inconsistent his last 2 runs (maybe to protect his mark). His Irish rating of 143 seems fair and his form with A Genie In a Bottle is strong too.

The only thing I did read was that Patrick Mullins may ride him in the 4 miler but as Willie will likely have something for that race too, they may opt to send Martello Tower here or the Kim Muir.

NRNB essential.
Click to expand...

Thanks Jackie - had already taken 16's NRNB (rather than 20's without the security).
As you say, it depends on how harshly he gets treated at the weights, but if treated favorably - the price crashes, if treated harshly - you could see him ending up in the 4-miler
 
Istabraq said:
Could be very useful that.
We're at a stage with AP punting where all the value has gone, every bookie will push out prices on the day and include a multitude of special incentives such as 5/6 places, bonus for winning by certain distance etc, the only advantage us punters can gain right now is by betting to known target, e.g Singlefarmpayment is 10/1 with NRNB or 14/1 without.

I use the Minella Rocco example once again, last years 4 miler he was general 5/1 fav two weeks from the race with NRNB, 3 places 1/5 odds, the market was formed and he could be backed at 10/1, 4 places 1/4 odds.
The lesson here is that patience can pay, unless you have known target info...
Click to expand...

Totally agree Ista - some of the nrnb prices are ridiculously bad.
 
Hadn't looked at this race much since CoC had that cross country entry.
Would definitely, definitely, definitely be interested in Martello Tower though if he turned up, moreso than I would in the 4 miler. 14s/16s? Will wait and see...

I like Noble Endeavor too in this. Was well, well fancied in the 4 miler, and the Troytown before winning the PaddyPower chase against the well handicapped The Crafty Butcher? Placed at the festival before too....? Any other fans? Could be Davy Russell's ride too?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom