I only like RPRs for the bumper, classical creek (118) is one ill avoid for that race now, that debut rpr number is important in regards to that race
Excerpt from RPR Diary in Members Section
Winners
CHAMPION BUMPER Ratings:
Latest: 137, 137, 141, 138, 141, 135, 142*, 132*, 136, 140,
(High 142, Low 135,
Avge 138)
Pre-Race Ratings:
Latest: 128, 140, 136, 131, 139, 137, 133*, 136*, 137,
(High 140, Low 128,
Avge 135)
Improvement to Win: - taken over 9 yrs as trend has changed
Latest: +9, -3, +5, +7, +2, -2, +9, -4, -1,
(High +14, Low -2,
Avge +2lb)
Seasonal Debut Rating:
128, 113, 128, 131, 128, 131, 106, 88, 102, 131,
(High 131, Low 88, Avge 122) - excl 88 outlier
First 2 Runs Best:
128, 114, 136, 131, 128, 131, 133, 109, 127, 131,
(High 136, Low 109, Avge 127)
*
Tend to need a 131/139 RPR horse pre-race to be good enough to win this (Jasmin DV 128 off 1 RUN).
* Seasonal Debut:
random - avge 122 excl 1 outlier)
* First 2 Runs:
solid for 6 of the last 7 years, at 128-136 after 2 runs
Summary
Horses have posted seasonal debut Bumper ratings of 88, 102, 106, 113, 128, 128, 128, 131, 131, 131
on their way to winning the Champion Bumper
Don't dismiss any debut Bumper winner, based on that first RPR, as its so random for assessment purposes, particularly in early season Bumpers with no depth to the opposition. (completely different to winning a Leopardstown Christmas Bumper on debut).
Very much opinion really, on whether you want to have Classical Creek in mind or not, for Cheltenham,
Rather than him being dismissed due to an initial rating.
Second time out could be D-Day for anyone whose backed him at double his current price, finding out if he's a live one for a Grade 1 or not.