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Neptune Novices Hurdle 2017

Does anyone fancy Let's Dance for this.

Airlie Beach looks to be going to the Mares Novice and Limini/VVM in the same ownership in the Mares race.

She is rated 147 plus the Mares allowance she gets. I think she is capable of running very well in this in what looks a mediocre year. There is only Neon Wolf that I would be particularly worried about so I am going to back the pair of them NRNB.
 
I haven't seen a performance so far this season where I've thought I have to back that horse for the Neptune (apart from Robin Roe :sorrow:) Plenty of good horses but nothing that had stuck me as being a bit special. Neon Wolf has put up the best performance too my eye but I've missed the fancy prices on him.

I'd be interested in Let's Dance if she turned up here.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I haven't seen a performance so far this season where I've thought I have to back that horse for the Neptune (apart from Robin Roe :sorrow:) Plenty of good horses but nothing that had stuck me as being a bit special. Neon Wolf has put up the best performance too my eye but I've missed the fancy prices on him.

I'd be interested in Let's Dance if she turned up here.
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Im the same and theres nothing in my book for this race. I'm thinking I might take a bit of the 9/2 NRNB on Neon Wolf as I think FO will go the Supreme route which could leave NW a short price
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
Does anyone fancy Let's Dance for this.

Airlie Beach looks to be going to the Mares Novice and Limini/VVM in the same ownership in the Mares race.

She is rated 147 plus the Mares allowance she gets. I think she is capable of running very well in this in what looks a mediocre year. There is only Neon Wolf that I would be particularly worried about so I am going to back the pair of them NRNB.
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I think she will go here or the spud race. And a proper contender in either.
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
Does anyone fancy Let's Dance for this.

Airlie Beach looks to be going to the Mares Novice and Limini/VVM in the same ownership in the Mares race.

She is rated 147 plus the Mares allowance she gets. I think she is capable of running very well in this in what looks a mediocre year. There is only Neon Wolf that I would be particularly worried about so I am going to back the pair of them NRNB.
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I'm all over it - personally think this is the race - especially with the mares allowance. Don't see why they'd drop in trip for a grade 2 when they can go for this grade 1 over the 2m 5 having campaigned all year over further than 2 m.
 
I think Let's Dance would have very good, solid claims in this race too.

I have 0.5 pts on Let's Dance and Airlie Beach at 59/1 but that is the only race I have her in.

10/1 NRNB is a bit tempting but I'd want one of FO or NW to not turn up to feel I had good place claims so I will leave this for now. I backed her 1.5 pts each way at 14s in the AB and much earlier in the season 1 pt ew at 10s in the mares version... so I've done my money with her I think!

I thought Ruby might ride Saturnas in this race, but surely not after the weekend... I would absolutely mirror FM's comments though. Robin Roe was the one and I did get 6/1 NRNB on Neon Wolf who I would very very very much fancy on the day... I think he will show Finian's Oscar up and he is one that I would go in on again on the day. (As it stands)
 
CauseofCauses said:
Said they hadn't really learnt anything from the race with the small field, still expect(hope!) they go for this race!
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I'd imagine it will be the Neptune still, I'm just looking at previous runnings of the Tolworth, and runners from that don't have a great record in the Supreme, interestingly more have run in the Supreme than the Neptune from that race though.

Not sure in anyone had already done a list of previous Tolworth winners than subsequently ran at Cheltenham that same year, but here are what I have found:

2011: Minella Class - Tolworth winner - 8th in Neptune
Megastar - Tolworth runner-up - 5th in Neptune

2012: Colour Squadron - Tolworth runner-up - 13th in Supreme
Magnifique Etoile - Tolworth 3rd - 10th in County Hurdle
Prospect Wells - Tolworth 4th - 5th in Supreme

2013: Pendra - Tolworth runner-up - 17th in Coral Cup

2014: Josses Hill - Tolworth runner-up - 2nd in Supreme
Upazo - 3rd in Tolworth - 22nd in County Hurdle
Garde La Victoire - 4th in Tolworth - 14th in Supreme
The Liquidator - 5th in Tolworth - 11th in Supreme
Prince Siegfried - 6th in Tolworth - PU in Albert Bartlett

2015: L'ami Serge - Tolworth winner - 4th in Supreme
Jolly's Cracked It - Tolworth runner-up - 9th in Martin Pipe Cond. H.C
Shelford - Fell - 5th in Martin Pipe Cond. H.C

2016: Yorkhill - Tolworth winner - 1st in Neptune
O O Seven - Tolworth runner-up - 8th in Neptune
Welsh Shadow - Tolworth 4th - 5th in Neptune

Unfortunately not much of it makes for good reading, or a strong case for FO, 17 runners at Cheltenham that have run in the Tolworth the same year since 2011 and just 1 winner, 1 second and a LOT of unplaced horses.

Yorkhill blunted the poor run of Tolworth winners last year, but in all honestly he is a cut above the rest that ever contested it anyway.

The Neon Wolf form does look stronger, but for him I'd be undecided which race he goes for, if he turns up at all.
 
rumours on twitter by an apparant credible source that Invitation Only not firing atm and may not go to cheltenham
 
I'd almost written him off anyway so that doesn't matter too much. Who is the source, I haven't seen it on my tweet machine?

Good post regarding the Tolworth CoD. Hard to know exactly what Finian's Oscar is yet. Only 2 placed horses (1 a winner) doesn't make fantastic reading. Hard to know exactly why, but quite a ferw of them we're well talked up and fancied so at the price he is now, maybe FO should be opposed!
 
Willie said that he was coming to life and starting to really please him a few weeks ago :grumpy:
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd almost written him off anyway so that doesn't matter too much. Who is the source, I haven't seen it on my tweet machine?

Good post regarding the Tolworth CoD. Hard to know exactly what Finian's Oscar is yet. Only 2 placed horses (1 a winner) doesn't make fantastic reading. Hard to know exactly why, but quite a ferw of them we're well talked up and fancied so at the price he is now, maybe FO should be opposed!
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@michaellooby2 is the source of the tweet
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Willie said that he was coming to life and starting to really please him a few weeks ago :grumpy:
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Robin Roe would have beat him anyway :highly_amused:
 
They should have it like the NFL where you have no choice but to give an injury report every friday and get fined if you fail to disclose even split ends.:highly_amused:

See how Willie deals with hiding info then
 
Jonnymac05 said:
They should have it like the NFL where you have no choice but to give an injury report every friday and get fined if you fail to disclose even split ends.:highly_amused:

See how Willie deals with hiding info then
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I agree with that.
I've also said for years there should be a limit to the number of entries any one horse can have, VVM gets 6 entries ?
25 days out and they still don't know whether the horse will be a 2m hurdler or 3m chaser ? Really ?
Connections have obligations to the industry...
 
Istabraq said:
I agree with that.
I've also said for years there should be a limit to the number of entries any one horse can have, VVM gets 6 entries ?
25 days out and they still don't know whether the horse will be a 2m hurdler or 3m chaser ? Really ?
Connections have obligations to the industry...
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That is exactly what should happen or enter up a horse in whatever amount you like but at around the 6 week to go mark you can only have a max of maybe 2 entries and thats it.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd almost written him off anyway so that doesn't matter too much. Who is the source, I haven't seen it on my tweet machine?

Good post regarding the Tolworth CoD. Hard to know exactly what Finian's Oscar is yet. Only 2 placed horses (1 a winner) doesn't make fantastic reading. Hard to know exactly why, but quite a ferw of them we're well talked up and fancied so at the price he is now, maybe FO should be opposed!
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I've had a little look further into this, not a thorough one but briefly, Peddlers Cross won what looks like he same race as Neon Wolf did at Haydock before winning this race and The New One finished 2nd in the same race William Henry finished 2nd in on his latest start before going on to win this race.

I see some like the Royal Bond & Deloitte as pointers for this race but tbh I don't see any one particular race that points to a potential winner anymore than any other race tbh.

On a side note, and I know I mentioned William Henry as a horse I put in a bet with 2 other horses of Hendersons on a different thread, but he's aged 7 and 7 year olds don't win this race, maybe something I should have looked at before backing him but hey ho, what's done is done, and in defence of his age he is still very lightly raced for that 7 years of his, so maybe!
 
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