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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

cwright23 said:
Saying that I do remember backing our Conor at 18/1 in October..
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I'll leave it to you then ... better luck than I've had ... must have had a run though so I'd still be cautious before the season starts?
 
Blow By Blow @ 16/1 spud
Fagan @ 20/1 4 miler
Barters Hill @ 14/1 rsa
Rawnaq @ 20/1 w hurdle
Blaklion @ 33/1 gc
Lucky 31, 31 bets * £0.50 EW - £2m
 
Have to say mayo I'm getting keener on Rawnaq by the day, will keep a close eye on his progress this year as this WH looks a weak renewal to me
 
Istabraq said:
Have to say mayo I'm getting keener on Rawnaq by the day, will keep a close eye on his progress this year as this WH looks a weak renewal to me
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I just keep perming a few different ones from my own gut and lads on here. I am a follower on Rawnaq,
 
Nice bet I like that too ... big big fan of Rawnaq's chance from early on in the WH thread!

Barters Hill lovely, BBB good choice, Fagans very solid and Blacklion the kind of unsexy horse that could grind out a result under the radar
 
How much importance do you place on right or left handed track bias?
Looking at options/value for the Champion Chase, Ar Mad looks intriguing at 25's BUT has a tendency to jump right on occasions. Is this something that can be trained out of a horse, or is Ar Mad going to fall short at tracks like Cheltenham, when up against the best horses??
 
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Leman - course form is vital, absolutely vital, but remember there are two courses at Cheltenham (New course being much more stamina sapping) and not all horses perform on both.
Any horse jumping out to the right will struggle at Cheltenham and I'd usually want evidence a horse acts at the track before I back them, though sometimes this is a muscle issue so not so much an action problem.
 
Thanks Istabraq. I thought as much, but wanted other opinions. Much appreciated.
 
I'm a big fan of Ar Mad and think he's a good price at 25's. I'd like to see him properly tested left handed early season and ideally run at Cheltenham. It's a big ask to have question marks over the track coming into a Champion Chase. Would be great to see him line up in something like the Schloer Chase at the Open meeting. They would then know for sure whether it's an issue. They can still take in the a tingle creek in December whatever the outcome. If Cheltenham suits go for the Chapion Chase if not they can always bypass that and target the Celebration Chase back at Sandown after the festivals and maybe punchestown. At least they'd be no doubts come March.

I'm not sure the left handed track issue is so big either. I think it was Gary Moore making a rash statement after that first chase run that he would have to go right handed from now on (he made statements about Sire de Grugy not suited to Cheltenham and not running at the festival but he then went and won it later that year)
 
I think Course form is really important. The left and right handed thing not so much. It is definitely an angle I consider, but I consider it as just another variable. The example that sticks in my mind from fairly recently is Vautour in the King George. Some said he was losing a length at each fence he jumped out to the right. Now that might be true, and he only lost by a head... so if you took it literally then it is very important. My own opinion is though, that there are so many other variables that something like jumping out to the right is comparable to 'taking a wider route', yes you avoid perceived trouble and might be nicer ground to run on, but you're covering more ground and therefore have further to go.

Ista is right, in that any horse that has a tendancy to jump right will be at a disadvantage, but in Ar Mad's case, I believe that is firmly factored in to his price. jno too is right, Moore did say very similar about SDG. He is a great example, because he probably is BETTER right handed, but still won a Champion Chase at Cheltenham...
 
I've had a fun EW Lucky 15 on the championship races: (97681/1)
CH - Yanworth
CC - Ar Mad
WH - Apples Jade
GC - Coneygree

Little bit of thought behind them...
Yanworth was thought of as a Champion Hurdler in waiting before Yorkhill lowered his colours but I haven't given up hope, and Annie and Faugheen are fragile?

Ar Mad I just think is too big at 25s. Douvan and SS are better but I only really see God's Own in the betting that I would be tempted by and I think he'll end up here and stablemate Traffic Fluide in the Ryanair.

Apples Jade - I've just convinced myself in the World Hurdle thread that this is the target...

Coneygree is an obvious contender, been there and done it and although I fancy others more, I thought getting him in a lucky 15 covers me a bit.
 
A mad bet at low stakes



Three Musketeers @ 16/1 - hennessy
Smad Place @ 25/1 - King G


Blow By Blow @ 16/1 AB
Yorkhill @ 6/1 JLT
Old Guard @ 33/1 Arkle
Simonsig @ 20/1 Ryanair
Josies Orders @ 7/2
Champers On Ice @ 25/1 4 miler
Barters Hill @ 14/1 RSA
On the Fringe @ 5/1

Block, 1013 bets
 
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Three musketeers Ryanair?

Blow by Blow Potato?

Simonsig Ryanair?

Barters RSA :)
 
An interesting horse of Hendersons coming back this season, not sure if any of the lads may remember him, the name is ok corral, finished 2nd in the punchestown bumper 2 years ago finishing about 2/3 lengths behind yorkhill but some 17 lengths clear of up for review in 3rd, could be a nice prospect this season over 2m 4f and one to maybe keep an eye on for the festival
 
I'm also really keen to see how Ok Corral gets on gjt. I had actually forgotten Up For Review was in 3rd that day but remember putting him in my tracker early last season. Here's a quote from Henderson after his first bumper win at Kempton in February 2015:

That was a really impressive run,” Henderson told the Racing Post. “OK Corral is a tank and gives the impression he will just keep on galloping. We´ve always liked him and this division (of the bumper) looks the better one on paper.
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Best price 33's for both the Neptune and Albert Bartlett which is very interesting. I'd favour the 3 mile option based on those quotes but he may have a bit more class than that. I'm waiting to see his first entry this season before I get involved though
 
Thanks for adding the quote, totally agree with you, I'm definitely doing a lot more digging this season and hoping to catch a few "forgotten" horses that might just slip under the radar initially, this sort of horse in ok Corral is right up my street for now, is interesting how Henderson tends to send his nicer horses to the punchestown bumper, could be a good sign for Jenkins
 
I like that gjt, very good spot. The bookies don't miss a trick do they, 33s just is a shade skinny with the season out being a factor.

Really interesting though!
 
Katie on board? Seems the Cross country route didn't work
 
gjt7756 said:
Thanks for adding the quote, totally agree with you, I'm definitely doing a lot more digging this season and hoping to catch a few "forgotten" horses that might just slip under the radar initially, this sort of horse in ok Corral is right up my street for now, is interesting how Henderson tends to send his nicer horses to the punchestown bumper, could be a good sign for Jenkins
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He got a mention on here for the bumper last year after some Hendo comment but never showed. Anyone know what kept him out ?
 
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