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Scottish Grand National Meeting

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
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One of the last big NH meetings takes place this Sat when Ayr hosts the Scottish Grand National, the meeting isn't however just about the big race itself, there's almost half a million pounds in prize money on offer through the card.

The big race itself has some fairly strong trends with 8-11 year olds and those rates 132-143 fairing very well.
With stamina needed it won't surprise anyone that you need a proven stayer and a horse who has won a class 1 or 2 event.

One I really like is Colin Tizzards Golden Chieftan, this one had the Midlands National at his mercy before tipping up at the last just over a month ago.
A previous winner of Cheltenhams day one 3m handicap chase he was rated as high as 148, he tumbled down to 121 before enjoying a resergent season which has seen him win over 3m 3f at Fontwell and Wincanton over 3m 2f before Midland National mishap, a race which has seen him rise 4lb to 139.
Jonjo's Cause of Causes will be all the rage after his Cheltenham win and no qualification for Aintree but with a rating in the mid 150s he would be a real trends buster should he oblige.

The card is deep in talent and will no doubt attract some of the Mullins army as he attempts to win the trainer championship, a cracking day beckons....
 
Cause of causes new rating would have got him into the aintree national comfortably. Others better handicapped. Heathfield for a start in the same colours if he showed, Rogue Angel to give Mouse a hat trick ??
 
I wouldnt rule Folsom Blue out for Mouse either.

Tizzards are still running well and GC was very unlucky in Midlands National. Does he definitely run ?
 
I backed Highland Lodge 25/1. Well fancied him to the big one, so backing him here for compensation.
 
I'm interested in heathfield if he turns up, the same applies to Gallant Oscar. Also like Zaidiyn if Ellision runs him in the Scottish Champion hurdle.
 
Heathfield looks like being my pick. Measureofmydreams form has had a boost with Native River winning at Aintree and Black Hercules winning the JLT, and is tempting at the 8/1 available, but I fear he lacks a bit of experience to win this
 
Morning Glory said:
Tizzards are still running well and GC was very unlucky in Midlands National. Does he definitely run ?
Click to expand...

Not sure MG but his machine price isn't way off his high st price (20s) so nothing stands out.
I think he's better on ground with some give and there's no guarantee he gets that at Sandown next week, Ayr probably the right option but not yet confirmed...
 
Istabraq said:
Not sure MG but his machine price isn't way off his high st price (20s) so nothing stands out.
I think he's better on ground with some give and there's no guarantee he gets that at Sandown next week, Ayr probably the right option but not yet confirmed...
Click to expand...

Only found this

"Colin Tizzard able to chose from Masters Hill and Golden Chieftain"

Sound like he is he only running one ?
 
Morning Glory said:
Only found this

"Colin Tizzard able to chose from Masters Hill and Golden Chieftain"

Sound like he is he only running one ?
Click to expand...

Masters Hill 30 on the machine with nothing on the lay side, suggets he's the less likely to run if any.....
 
Another I'm keen to get with Sat is Hobb's Wait for Me in the Champ hurdle,nicely rested and weighted and looks sure to go well, currently 8s
 
Highland lodge was one of mind that didn't make the national so i'll be on that and Golden Cheiftan who let me down in the midlands, still gutted about that!
 
Golden Chieftain and Heathfield backed.
 
Another Heathfield backer signing in!!
 
I saw Vyta Du Roc was well backed earlier, I didn't check the record of novices when I did the trends earlier this week but I can't imagine they have a great record....
 
Istabraq said:
Don't remember the Irish having a great record either....
Click to expand...

Irish trained runners: F000BP8PF8P0PP9PP02 (0-1-19) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 19 runners since 2006. Last Irish-trained winner was back in 1869, :D though Goonyella (2nd in 2015) went close to breaking that barren spell last year.

Top Weight: 0P2PP6PP7P (0-1-10)

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower

In past 4 years, horses rated 132 to 140 have won all 4 and filled 13 of 16 places.

2 of 2 novice chaser winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase, finishing 23

Paul Nicholls (0-1-16) has saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 1 place from 16 runners.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 to 9 (or a 10/11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 139+)

- French & GB bred horses have done well recently

- Carrying 10-6 or less

- Officially rated 143 or lower (ideally rated 132 to 140)

- Respect any horse carrying a penalty

- Run 3 to 6 times this season

- Finished in the first 6 last time

- Posted an RPR of 140+ in one or all of last 3 chase starts

- Won over 3M+

- Posted their career high RPR of 140+ in a chase over 3M 4F+

- Won a class 2 or 3 chase in last 18 months but no higher

- Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)

- Run in 10 to 22 chases (or placed in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)

- Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)

- Had first career start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race

- Bypassed 2016 Aintree Grand National

- Respect horses that finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

- Ran in the Grimthorpe, 4M NH Novice Chase or Somerset National last time

- Trained in Great Britain (ideally by N Twiston-Davies, P Hobbs or A King)

- Irish trained runners have not fared well (last winner in 1869)
 
the new Queen of staying chases, Kerry Lee, runs Goodtoknow in this.
Currently around 25s, might have to have a pound just in case, she's won just about every staying pot she's competed in this season...
 
Winner comes from 140 down. COC cant win and Cooper has picked wrong one too ;)
 
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