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Sandown Scilly Isles and Leopardstown 4 Grade 1s Thread
- Thread starter Old Vic
- Start date
Looking at the forecast it's likely Sandown will take a dumping of rain that will soften the ground significantly from the current 'good to soft, good places' so for me it's about who handled the conditions best.
My vote is probably for Bristol De Mai, that's not to say that Tea for Two doesn't go in the ground I just think BDM needs cut, 7/4 in what is likely to be a two horse race is a nice price
My vote is probably for Bristol De Mai, that's not to say that Tea for Two doesn't go in the ground I just think BDM needs cut, 7/4 in what is likely to be a two horse race is a nice price
The Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novice Chase takes placed on Saturday, 6th February. A grade 1 chase for novices, run over 2M 4½F. The race should provide some good pointers to the JLT Novice Chase at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-0-6
6yo: 2-2-14
7yo: 5-1-21
8yo: 0-4-7
9yo: 1-0-2
10yo: 0-0-1
All 6 horse aged 5 or 6 to make the frame were French bred.
4 of 6 winners aged 7+ were Irish bred (other 2 French bred)
Gender
The have only been 2 mares (1-0-2) to run in this in past 10 years, Nadiya De La Vega (6th in 2011) and Gitane Du Berlais (1st in 2015).
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (2 exception won their only start)
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time (exception was 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+ (7 of 10 had won over 2M 3½F+)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over fences (2 exceptions run in just 1 chase, 1 won grade 2 and other won by 18 lengths)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a chase (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions unbeaten in completed chases)
6 of last 8 winners had won a graded hurdle
4 of 9 winners at Sandown were previous course winners (4 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start)
Other races
Raymond Mould Memorial Novice Chase winner (More Of That): 71F (1-0-3)
Harry Dutfield Memorial Novice Chase winner (Tea For Two): 3 (0-0-1)
Altcar Novice Chase winner (Bristol De Mai): 3 (0-0-1)
Steel Plate and Sections Novice Chase winner (More Of That): F (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in Dipper Novice Chase last time, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in Henry VIII Novice Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing R2
2 of 10 winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tolworth Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 2P
6 of 10 winners contested a hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival
Since 2005, record of 1st & 2nd from Dipper Novice Chase: 1111F (4-0-5)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-2-11) saddled 4 consecutive winners between 2006 & 2009.
Willie Mullins (1-0-1) has only saddled 1 previous runner, Gitane Du Berlais to win it in 2015.
Nick Williams (1-0-2) trained For Non Stop to win this in 2012.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter
All 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting, with the favourite winning 7 of last 10.
Favourites (7-1-11) have won 7 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.10.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 7 or older
- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (posting an RPR of 144+)
- Has won over 2M 3F+
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (winning at least once or placed in a grade 1)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 or 2 chase (or unbeaten over fences)
- Previous course winner (or having first run here)
- Has won a graded hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Tolworth, Cleeve and/or Tolworth Hurdle in 2015
- Finished in first 2 in the Dipper and/or Berkshire Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Henry VIII and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
- Ran in a hurdle at 2015 Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins
- Price 9/2 or shorter (favourite does well)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2016-1454363900#sthash.pOEPx8hU.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-0-6
6yo: 2-2-14
7yo: 5-1-21
8yo: 0-4-7
9yo: 1-0-2
10yo: 0-0-1
All 6 horse aged 5 or 6 to make the frame were French bred.
4 of 6 winners aged 7+ were Irish bred (other 2 French bred)
Gender
The have only been 2 mares (1-0-2) to run in this in past 10 years, Nadiya De La Vega (6th in 2011) and Gitane Du Berlais (1st in 2015).
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (2 exception won their only start)
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time (exception was 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+ (7 of 10 had won over 2M 3½F+)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over fences (2 exceptions run in just 1 chase, 1 won grade 2 and other won by 18 lengths)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a chase (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions unbeaten in completed chases)
6 of last 8 winners had won a graded hurdle
4 of 9 winners at Sandown were previous course winners (4 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start)
Other races
Raymond Mould Memorial Novice Chase winner (More Of That): 71F (1-0-3)
Harry Dutfield Memorial Novice Chase winner (Tea For Two): 3 (0-0-1)
Altcar Novice Chase winner (Bristol De Mai): 3 (0-0-1)
Steel Plate and Sections Novice Chase winner (More Of That): F (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in Dipper Novice Chase last time, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in Henry VIII Novice Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing R2
2 of 10 winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tolworth Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 2P
6 of 10 winners contested a hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival
Since 2005, record of 1st & 2nd from Dipper Novice Chase: 1111F (4-0-5)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-2-11) saddled 4 consecutive winners between 2006 & 2009.
Willie Mullins (1-0-1) has only saddled 1 previous runner, Gitane Du Berlais to win it in 2015.
Nick Williams (1-0-2) trained For Non Stop to win this in 2012.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter
All 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting, with the favourite winning 7 of last 10.
Favourites (7-1-11) have won 7 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.10.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 7 or older
- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (posting an RPR of 144+)
- Has won over 2M 3F+
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (winning at least once or placed in a grade 1)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 or 2 chase (or unbeaten over fences)
- Previous course winner (or having first run here)
- Has won a graded hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Tolworth, Cleeve and/or Tolworth Hurdle in 2015
- Finished in first 2 in the Dipper and/or Berkshire Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Henry VIII and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
- Ran in a hurdle at 2015 Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins
- Price 9/2 or shorter (favourite does well)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2016-1454363900#sthash.pOEPx8hU.dpuf
Deloitte
DELOITTE NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2016
The 2M 2F Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 6th February as part of a top class card, which includes no fewer than four grade 1 contests. This race has thrown up four subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle winners since 2000 and whatever wins this is sure to have a serious chance at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 3-4-25
6yo: 6-6-33
7yo: 1-1-11
8yo: 0-0-1
6yos have won 6 of the last 10 but they did represent 47.1% of the total runners, so no major trend as far as ages go.
The only 2 horses aged older than 6 to win this in past 15 years have been Dunguib & Like A Butterfly, both had won the Irish grade 1 Champion Bumper & finished in first 2 in Royal Bond.
Gender
Mares (0-0-1) won the race in 2002 & 2003, both winners were multiple graded winners and had won their last 5 races, though both female runners since 2005 have been unplaced.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last completed start (3 exceptions 2nd or 3rd in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR on last completed start (2 exceptions did so on penultimate run)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had posted an RPR of 142+ in their last 2 outings
5 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F+
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 2)
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions were placed in a bumper, 1 other had only run over hurdles and the other was a listed winner on flat)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race at Navan, Punchestown or Cork
8 of 10 winners (last 4) gained their first hurdles win at Cork or Navan
Other Races
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 1211 (3-1-4)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Long Dog): 12221 (2-3-5)
Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (Bellshill): 2U141 (2-0-5)
Future Champion Novices Hurdle winner (Long Dog): 1552 (1-1-4)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 1 (1-0-1)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Anibale Fly): 1 (1-0-1)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Min): 1 (1-0-1)
Clayton Hotel 4YO Maiden Hurdle winner (Coney Island): 43 (0-1-2)
Lawlor's Hotel Novice Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 35 (0-1-2)
Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Supasundae): F58 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners had run in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, finishing 12U
3 of 10 winners ran in the Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in Champion Bumper, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 1d1
2 of 10 winners ran in I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle at Navan on 22nd November, finishing 1U
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-4-13) has saddled the last 3 winners and the runner-up in 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Noel Meade (3-0-5) trained the winner in 2006, 2007 & 2009.
Tony Martin (1-1-5) trained Benefficient to win at 50/1 in 2012 and saddled Wingtips to finish 3rd at 14/1 in 2013.
Jessica Harrington (1-1-6) saddled the winner in 2011 and runner-up in 2008.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
Benefficient was the one shock winner in last 10 years, taking this at 50/1 in 2012.
Favourites (4-5-10) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.93.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Won last completed start (or 2nd/3rd in a graded hurdle)
- Posted a career high RPR of 142+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season
- Previously won a hurdles race at Punchestown, Navan or Cork
- Won a grade 1 or 2 race under NH rules
- Won over 2M 2F+ (or having first run over 2M 2F+)
- Finished in first 2 in Royal Bond, Navan and/or Future Champions Nov’ Hurdle
- Previously won a bumper (or a class 1 winner on flat)
- Won the Champion bumper at Punchestown or Cheltenham in 2015
- Trained by Willie Mullins or Noel Meade
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2016-1454287610#sthash.Fi4seSh2.dpuf
DELOITTE NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2016
The 2M 2F Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 6th February as part of a top class card, which includes no fewer than four grade 1 contests. This race has thrown up four subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle winners since 2000 and whatever wins this is sure to have a serious chance at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 3-4-25
6yo: 6-6-33
7yo: 1-1-11
8yo: 0-0-1
6yos have won 6 of the last 10 but they did represent 47.1% of the total runners, so no major trend as far as ages go.
The only 2 horses aged older than 6 to win this in past 15 years have been Dunguib & Like A Butterfly, both had won the Irish grade 1 Champion Bumper & finished in first 2 in Royal Bond.
Gender
Mares (0-0-1) won the race in 2002 & 2003, both winners were multiple graded winners and had won their last 5 races, though both female runners since 2005 have been unplaced.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last completed start (3 exceptions 2nd or 3rd in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR on last completed start (2 exceptions did so on penultimate run)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had posted an RPR of 142+ in their last 2 outings
5 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F+
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 2)
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions were placed in a bumper, 1 other had only run over hurdles and the other was a listed winner on flat)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race at Navan, Punchestown or Cork
8 of 10 winners (last 4) gained their first hurdles win at Cork or Navan
Other Races
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 1211 (3-1-4)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Long Dog): 12221 (2-3-5)
Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (Bellshill): 2U141 (2-0-5)
Future Champion Novices Hurdle winner (Long Dog): 1552 (1-1-4)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 1 (1-0-1)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Anibale Fly): 1 (1-0-1)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Min): 1 (1-0-1)
Clayton Hotel 4YO Maiden Hurdle winner (Coney Island): 43 (0-1-2)
Lawlor's Hotel Novice Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 35 (0-1-2)
Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Supasundae): F58 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners had run in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, finishing 12U
3 of 10 winners ran in the Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in Champion Bumper, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 1d1
2 of 10 winners ran in I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle at Navan on 22nd November, finishing 1U
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-4-13) has saddled the last 3 winners and the runner-up in 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Noel Meade (3-0-5) trained the winner in 2006, 2007 & 2009.
Tony Martin (1-1-5) trained Benefficient to win at 50/1 in 2012 and saddled Wingtips to finish 3rd at 14/1 in 2013.
Jessica Harrington (1-1-6) saddled the winner in 2011 and runner-up in 2008.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
Benefficient was the one shock winner in last 10 years, taking this at 50/1 in 2012.
Favourites (4-5-10) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.93.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Won last completed start (or 2nd/3rd in a graded hurdle)
- Posted a career high RPR of 142+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season
- Previously won a hurdles race at Punchestown, Navan or Cork
- Won a grade 1 or 2 race under NH rules
- Won over 2M 2F+ (or having first run over 2M 2F+)
- Finished in first 2 in Royal Bond, Navan and/or Future Champions Nov’ Hurdle
- Previously won a bumper (or a class 1 winner on flat)
- Won the Champion bumper at Punchestown or Cheltenham in 2015
- Trained by Willie Mullins or Noel Meade
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2016-1454287610#sthash.Fi4seSh2.dpuf
The Irish Gold Cup (formerly the Irish Hennessy) takes place on Saturday, 6th February, at Leopardstown. A race with a tremendous history, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon. Willie Mullins’ recent record has been strong, though British trained-runners have also been faring well in the race recently, when they’ve been represented.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-1
7yo: 2-1-5
8yo: 3-5-17
9yo: 3-2-21
10yo: 1-2-12
11yo+: 1-1-12
Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 8-9-44.
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 2-3-24.
Since 2000, the 4 winners aged older than 9 were Florida Pearl in 2004 (had won the race 3 times previously) and Beef Or Salmon in 2006 & 2007 (his 2nd & 3rd successes in the race) and Carlingford Lough (2015) who had won the previous season’s Flogas Novice Chase the previous season.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (2 exceptions finished 4th & 5th in Lexus)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times over fences since August
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (exception Quel Esprit was going well in a grade 1 when brought down)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (2 exceptions: Neptune Collonges fallen 2 out when still going well in Lexus and Joncol close 3rd in the Lexus on only course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception placed in the Lexus last time)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Carlingford Lough): 1563 (1-1-4)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 111 (3-0-3)
John Durkan Chase winner (Djakadam): 112 (2-0-3)
Lexus Chase winner (Don Poli): 212 (1-2-3)
Highest placed finisher from Lexus Chase: 12116P2236 (3-2-10)
JNWine Champion Chase winner (Don Cossack): 16 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Flogas Novice Chase winner (Don Poli): 261 (1-1-3)
Previous season's Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 1 (1-0-1)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Don Cossack): 144 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Killiney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 714 (1-0-3)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 2 (0-1-1)
Boomerang Animal Bedding Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 527 (0-1-3)
RSA Chase winner (Don Poli): 266 (0-1-3)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 24476 (0-1-5)
Ryanair Gold Cup winner (Gilgamboa): 2 (0-0-1)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Don Cossack): 44 (0-0-2)
The last 5 RSA Chase winners to run in this have been Florida Pearl 1st in 1999, Rule Supreme 1st in 2005, Cooldine 2nd in 2010, Bostons Angel 6th in 2012 & Lord Windermere 6th in 2014
One Jewson winner - Sir Des Champs won this in 2013
8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase last time, finishing 123F3U45
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing P003
3 of 10 winners ran in the race the previous season, finishing 212
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 1U
5 of 5 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season ran in Growise Champion Novice Chase, finishing 31B11
2 of 5 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season ran in previous Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 5 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season ran in previous RSA Chase, finishing F6
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-3-11) has won 8 of the last 16 renewals, including 3 of the last 4 renewals in which he’s saddled a runner.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-3) has saddled 3 runners in this race: the runner-up in 2008 & 2014 and the winner in 2009.
John Kiely (1-0-1) & Ted Walsh (0-1-2) trained Carlingford Lough and Foxrock to finish 1-2 in 2015.
British trained runners (2-4-9) have won 2 of the 6 renewals since 2006, in which they’ve been represented. 6 of their last 9 runners made the places.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter
Last Instalment’s win at 8/1 in 2014 has been the only winner over 11/2 this century.
Favourite (5-2-10) has a fairly good record, winning 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.52.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9 (or a previous winner of the race)
- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
- Posted an RPR of 157+ last time
- Has run since Christmas
- Run in 1 to 3 chases this season
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Won over 3M to 3M 1F
- Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in Lexus last time)
- Finished in first 3 in 2015 Punchestown Gold Cup or Growise Champion Novice Chase
- Ran in 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race and/or 2015 John Durkan Memorial Chase
- Finished in the first 4 or fell in the Lexus Chase last time out
- Priced 11/2 or shorter
- Trained by Willie Mullins or in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...p-trends-2016-1454273391#sthash.BGhhJlAR.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-1
7yo: 2-1-5
8yo: 3-5-17
9yo: 3-2-21
10yo: 1-2-12
11yo+: 1-1-12
Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 8-9-44.
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 2-3-24.
Since 2000, the 4 winners aged older than 9 were Florida Pearl in 2004 (had won the race 3 times previously) and Beef Or Salmon in 2006 & 2007 (his 2nd & 3rd successes in the race) and Carlingford Lough (2015) who had won the previous season’s Flogas Novice Chase the previous season.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (2 exceptions finished 4th & 5th in Lexus)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times over fences since August
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (exception Quel Esprit was going well in a grade 1 when brought down)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (2 exceptions: Neptune Collonges fallen 2 out when still going well in Lexus and Joncol close 3rd in the Lexus on only course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception placed in the Lexus last time)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Carlingford Lough): 1563 (1-1-4)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 111 (3-0-3)
John Durkan Chase winner (Djakadam): 112 (2-0-3)
Lexus Chase winner (Don Poli): 212 (1-2-3)
Highest placed finisher from Lexus Chase: 12116P2236 (3-2-10)
JNWine Champion Chase winner (Don Cossack): 16 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Flogas Novice Chase winner (Don Poli): 261 (1-1-3)
Previous season's Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 1 (1-0-1)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Don Cossack): 144 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Killiney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 714 (1-0-3)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 2 (0-1-1)
Boomerang Animal Bedding Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 527 (0-1-3)
RSA Chase winner (Don Poli): 266 (0-1-3)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 24476 (0-1-5)
Ryanair Gold Cup winner (Gilgamboa): 2 (0-0-1)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Don Cossack): 44 (0-0-2)
The last 5 RSA Chase winners to run in this have been Florida Pearl 1st in 1999, Rule Supreme 1st in 2005, Cooldine 2nd in 2010, Bostons Angel 6th in 2012 & Lord Windermere 6th in 2014
One Jewson winner - Sir Des Champs won this in 2013
8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase last time, finishing 123F3U45
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing P003
3 of 10 winners ran in the race the previous season, finishing 212
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 1U
5 of 5 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season ran in Growise Champion Novice Chase, finishing 31B11
2 of 5 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season ran in previous Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 5 winners that ran in a novice chase the previous season ran in previous RSA Chase, finishing F6
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-3-11) has won 8 of the last 16 renewals, including 3 of the last 4 renewals in which he’s saddled a runner.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-3) has saddled 3 runners in this race: the runner-up in 2008 & 2014 and the winner in 2009.
John Kiely (1-0-1) & Ted Walsh (0-1-2) trained Carlingford Lough and Foxrock to finish 1-2 in 2015.
British trained runners (2-4-9) have won 2 of the 6 renewals since 2006, in which they’ve been represented. 6 of their last 9 runners made the places.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter
Last Instalment’s win at 8/1 in 2014 has been the only winner over 11/2 this century.
Favourite (5-2-10) has a fairly good record, winning 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.52.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9 (or a previous winner of the race)
- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
- Posted an RPR of 157+ last time
- Has run since Christmas
- Run in 1 to 3 chases this season
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Won over 3M to 3M 1F
- Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in Lexus last time)
- Finished in first 3 in 2015 Punchestown Gold Cup or Growise Champion Novice Chase
- Ran in 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race and/or 2015 John Durkan Memorial Chase
- Finished in the first 4 or fell in the Lexus Chase last time out
- Priced 11/2 or shorter
- Trained by Willie Mullins or in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...p-trends-2016-1454273391#sthash.BGhhJlAR.dpuf
The Flogas Novice Chase (formerly the Dr P.J. Moriarty) is a grade 1 event run over 2M 5F and it takes place on the undercard of Irish Gold Cup day at Leopardstown on Saturday 6th February. It’s often a race that can throw up clues for the novice chases at Cheltenham as the first 2 in 2009 (Cooldine and Forpadydeplasterer) went on to win the RSA Chase and Arkle at the Festival, the runner-up in 2010, Weapon’s Amnesty, won the RSA, the 2011 winner, Bostons Angel, also went on to RSA glory, the 2012 runner-up, Call The Police, was placed in the RSA, the 2013 third, Lord Windermere, was another to go on to win the RSA, while the first 2 home last year were both placed in the JLT.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-2
6yo: 0-2-8
7yo: 7-7-40
8yo: 2-2-17
9yo: 0-0-3
7yos have won 7 of the last 10, though they have represented over 57.1% of the total runners.
No horse aged above 8 has ever won this race and both 5yo runners were French bred mares from the Willie Mullins yard.
Gender
The only 2 female runners in the past 10 years have J’y Vole (1st in 2008) and Adrian Des Mottes (3rd in 2015). Both were French bred 5yos, trained by Willie Mullins that had finished in first 3 in Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle and ran in Triumph Hurdle as a 4yo.
In past 25 years there have been 5 female runners that were sent off 10/1 or shorter, 2 won and the other 3 finished 3rd.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (7 won)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) posted an RPR of 143+ on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had run since Christmas Day (2 exceptions trained by Willie Mullins and had won beginners chase at Navan last time)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August (2 exceptions won a Navan beginners chase on only run that season)
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 2 to 4 chases (2 exception won only chase start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (other 6 had yet to run in a grade 1 chase)
Other races
Topaz Novice Chase winner (No More Heroes): 5611U (2-0-5)
Drogheda Beginners Chase winner (Black Hercules): 231 (1-2-3)
Previous season's Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Free Expression): 1 (1-0-1)
Sportinglife.com Beginners Chase winner (Measureofmydreams): 41U (1-0-3)
Killiney Novice Chase winner (Killultagh Vic): 22 (0-2-2)
Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase winner (Outlander): 4522 (0-2-4)
Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Outlander): 3 (0-1-1)
Irish Racing Yearbook Beginners Chase winner (Sambremont): U2 (0-1-2)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (No More Heroes): 45322 (0-1-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Monksland): 2 (0-0-1)
Betdaq Free Bets Beginners Chase winner (No More Heroes): P (0-0-1)
Ballymaloe Country Relish Beginners Chase winner (Zabana): 3F (0-0-2)
Woodland Park Novice Chase winner (Roi Des Francs): 54P (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 0P2
3 of 10 winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase last time, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in Money Back on Fallers Coral.ie Novice Chase last time, finishing FP
2 of 10 winners ran in Porter & Co Beginners Chase, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse Easter Festival
4 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous Punchestown Festival
3 of 10 winners won their beginners chase at Navan in November or December
Trainers
Willie Mullins (5-3-14) has saddled 5 of the last 8 winners of the race.
Noel Meade (1-2-5) won this in 2002 with Harbour Pilot, and won it again with Apache Stronghold last year.
Jessica Harrington (1-1-4) gained 2 wins (2005 & 2011) and 2 places from last 6 runners.
Price
No strong trends on prices, 4 of the last 10 winners were priced between 8/1 and 16/1 while the other 6 were sent off shorter than 5/1.
Favourites (4-2-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.89.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred aged 7 or 8 (or French bred 5yo)
- Has run since Christmas (or won last time & trained by Willie Mullins)
- Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 143+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (or won only chase start)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Run in no more than 10 hurdles races
- Won or placed in a graded hurdle
- Ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle at 2015 Punchestown Festival
- Finished in first 3 in a graded novice hurdle at 2015 Fairyhouse National Festival
- Ran in 2015 Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham
- Won the Topaz Novice Chase and/or a Navan beginners chase
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Noel Meade or Jessica Harrington
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2016-1454281458#sthash.wsbQKRal.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-2
6yo: 0-2-8
7yo: 7-7-40
8yo: 2-2-17
9yo: 0-0-3
7yos have won 7 of the last 10, though they have represented over 57.1% of the total runners.
No horse aged above 8 has ever won this race and both 5yo runners were French bred mares from the Willie Mullins yard.
Gender
The only 2 female runners in the past 10 years have J’y Vole (1st in 2008) and Adrian Des Mottes (3rd in 2015). Both were French bred 5yos, trained by Willie Mullins that had finished in first 3 in Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle and ran in Triumph Hurdle as a 4yo.
In past 25 years there have been 5 female runners that were sent off 10/1 or shorter, 2 won and the other 3 finished 3rd.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (7 won)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) posted an RPR of 143+ on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had run since Christmas Day (2 exceptions trained by Willie Mullins and had won beginners chase at Navan last time)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August (2 exceptions won a Navan beginners chase on only run that season)
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 2 to 4 chases (2 exception won only chase start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (other 6 had yet to run in a grade 1 chase)
Other races
Topaz Novice Chase winner (No More Heroes): 5611U (2-0-5)
Drogheda Beginners Chase winner (Black Hercules): 231 (1-2-3)
Previous season's Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Free Expression): 1 (1-0-1)
Sportinglife.com Beginners Chase winner (Measureofmydreams): 41U (1-0-3)
Killiney Novice Chase winner (Killultagh Vic): 22 (0-2-2)
Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase winner (Outlander): 4522 (0-2-4)
Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Outlander): 3 (0-1-1)
Irish Racing Yearbook Beginners Chase winner (Sambremont): U2 (0-1-2)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (No More Heroes): 45322 (0-1-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Monksland): 2 (0-0-1)
Betdaq Free Bets Beginners Chase winner (No More Heroes): P (0-0-1)
Ballymaloe Country Relish Beginners Chase winner (Zabana): 3F (0-0-2)
Woodland Park Novice Chase winner (Roi Des Francs): 54P (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 0P2
3 of 10 winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase last time, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in Money Back on Fallers Coral.ie Novice Chase last time, finishing FP
2 of 10 winners ran in Porter & Co Beginners Chase, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse Easter Festival
4 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous Punchestown Festival
3 of 10 winners won their beginners chase at Navan in November or December
Trainers
Willie Mullins (5-3-14) has saddled 5 of the last 8 winners of the race.
Noel Meade (1-2-5) won this in 2002 with Harbour Pilot, and won it again with Apache Stronghold last year.
Jessica Harrington (1-1-4) gained 2 wins (2005 & 2011) and 2 places from last 6 runners.
Price
No strong trends on prices, 4 of the last 10 winners were priced between 8/1 and 16/1 while the other 6 were sent off shorter than 5/1.
Favourites (4-2-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.89.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred aged 7 or 8 (or French bred 5yo)
- Has run since Christmas (or won last time & trained by Willie Mullins)
- Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 143+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (or won only chase start)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Run in no more than 10 hurdles races
- Won or placed in a graded hurdle
- Ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle at 2015 Punchestown Festival
- Finished in first 3 in a graded novice hurdle at 2015 Fairyhouse National Festival
- Ran in 2015 Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham
- Won the Topaz Novice Chase and/or a Navan beginners chase
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Noel Meade or Jessica Harrington
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2016-1454281458#sthash.wsbQKRal.dpuf
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2.05 Ffos Las – Dribuild Ltd Welsh Champion Hurdle
Paul Nicholls has won the last two editions of this race, and last year’s winner, Silsol, is back for more under the same partner, Jack Sherwood. With just a 3lb higher mark than when winning by five lengths in a horrendous bog last year, he’d have to hold claims, but I worry about horses that move back to hurdles after a half-decent start over fences. Two good efforts over the larger obstacles preceded a drubbing by Black Hercules at Warwick, but he certainly didn’t show a hatred of fences so it seems as if this could be an afterthought.
However, Nicholls does have another horse in the race for whom this could well have been the target all along. SAN BENEDETO has the services of the new #1 claimer in the Nicholls Stable and fits the profile of the last two winners for Nicholls in this race. Both Saphir Du Rheu and Silsol won this race the season before they went novice chasing and Nicholls has already spoken of how San Benedeto “will make a lovely chaser next year”. The previous two winners also had the services of the top claimer in the stable, Harry Derham in 2014 and Jack Sherwood in 2015 respectively, a position Harry Cobden now occupies. Cobden’s 7lb claim would make him 11lb lower in the weights than his stablemate, certainly a position from which he can take advantage and given the horse should have no issue with trip or ground judging on his last-time-out close second to the highly-regarded stayer One Track Mind from the Warren Greatrex stable, he has to be way too big a price at 12/1.
Deputy Dan’s second and third behind Thistlecrack on his last two starts read well, but his hurdles mark of 151 worries me, as does the drop in trip to two and a half miles. I know the ground will be tough going, but even so, it’s likely that he’ll be outpaced at a crucial stage before staying on again. He’ll probably run a decent race in suitable conditions but may just fall short.
One very interesting entrant is Rebecca Curtis’ Racing Pulse, who broke his maiden tag over fences last time out and reverts to hurdles and a slightly shorter trip here. His form over timber was decent, registering a mark of 144 when 3rd to Aubusson in a Cheltenham Neptune trial race on New Years’ Day of 2014. He beat Ballyalton home that day, so there’s obviously a fair amount of ability to tap into over the smaller obstacles and he could be a dark horse here.
Advice
SAN BENEDETO – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
2.25 Sandown – The Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1)
This looked to be a most intriguing event on paper but the sensational entries have cut up somewhat and taken the gloss off what looked to be a superb contest. Nevertheless, it’s still a competitive renewal and the winner will likely hold leading Festival claims come March.
With four of the field failing to complete last time, it will probably pay to side with those with an unblemished record over fences given the testing railway fences on Sandown’s chase course. Tea For Two is 2-2 over fences since seeing his form over the sticks tail off earlier in the season. His latest victory in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day was an eye-catching performance However, he drops back down in trip today and given how three miles certainly seemed to suit him last time, I am not overly convinced that the drop back in trip will play to all his strengths.
Therefore, the selection is BRISTOL DE MAI on the back of his barn-storming victory in the Grade 2 Altcar Novices’ Chase at Haydock a fortnight ago. You could question what he beat that day but the manner in which he flew round suggested that that didn’t matter one jot. The five-year-old led for the majority of the contest and jumped like a stag throughout, a most impressive round for one so young. On official handicap ratings, he is 1lb well in on Tea For Two and given that conditions here will suit him down to the ground, he looks great value for that.
Of the remainder, Bitofapuzzle would be next best as she is weighted to win solely on ratings. However, 2m4f may be on the sharp side for her and she is likely to take up her preferred engagement in the Towton at Wetherby in any case. As De Mee will benefit from the drop in trip following his fall behind Tea For Two in December given he looked exhausted when tipping up three out. That run looked to have taken a lot out of him and although he has ran with credit in some hot company, he looks set to play only a supporting role once more. Of more interest would be Maximiser as he still looked to be travelling okay when coming to grief last time out. His trainer’s record is a huge concern however as he hasn’t saddled a winner since back in August and his wellbeing must be taken on trust returning from a two month break. Ubak completes the field and although he looked set to open his account over fences until unseating at the last at Huntingdon in January, this looks to be a tough ask. He was a classy novice hurdler though so is clearly not devoid of ability.
Advice
BRISTOL DE MAI – 1pt win @ 7/4 (William Hill)
2.30 Leopardstown – Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
A superb-looking renewal of this Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and, as you would expect, Willie Mullins trains half the field. Outlander comes into the race off the back of two decent victories in his first two attempts over fences, doing just enough in the closing stages of his races to win. Clearly the trip and ground will be no problem, but he faces a much sterner task here against some extremely smart chasing prospects.
Speaking of which, Ruby Walsh has the ride on PONT ALEXANDRE who was disappointingly beaten one and a half lengths by Roi Des Francs over 3m in a Grade 2 Novices’ chase at Naas last time out. You can make plenty of excuses for that defeat – the winner had a perfect tow into the race behind the two leaders, Pont Alexandre was a bit keen, it was his second run after a long break and it was a tactical affair on heavy ground that suited a dour stayer like Roi Des Francs. Whichever you choose, you can go along with Mullins’ assertion that we didn’t see the best of him.
For the most part, the eight-year-old is a superb jumper, he has tactical speed and stays well, but perhaps most importantly, he has that touch of class that, over this slightly shorter trip, could make all the difference. I think he’ll bounce back to his best here before a trip to Cheltenham for the RSA or the JLT depending on the ground.
Opposing the Mullins pair, Zabana is the hype horse of the moment, having been heavily backed for the JLT in anticipation of a good run here. He is a horse I like and his chase debut victory over the reopposing Blair Perrone was impressive. I can’t see the A J Martin horse reversing that form and it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Zabana, even if he isn’t as well suited to soft ground as he is to a sounder surface. He should run well, but whether he’ll have the class to win is another question.
Monksland beat Roi Des Francs by one and a half lengths over two and a half miles and went down to No More Heroes over the same trip, so must be in with a shout, although his effort over three miles here was a little disappointing last time out. The drop back to an extended two and a half miles could suit and you can’t rule him out, but the same nagging doubt over whether he’ll be good enough remains.
Advice
PONT ALEXANDRE – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Boylesports)
2.45 Wetherby – Totepool Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)
Wetherby’s Towton Novices’ Chase often throws up a smart chaser and this year’s renewal looks no different with a number of potentially useful performers in the line-up despite the small field.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Blaklion currently heads the market at around the 6/4 mark and comes here having chased home Seeyouatmidnight home at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. That was over 2m5f and prior to that he had got off the mark over 3m at Cheltenham in December. A dual Grade 2 winner over hurdles, he looks to have earned a step up to this class but carries a 7lb penalty for his Class 2 novice chase success. He has jumped much better on his last two starts over the bigger obstacles but he gives me the impression that he might find one too good and on that basis I think he is worth taking on at the head of the market.
Native River is likely to have plenty of supporters despite disappointing in the Feltham over Christmas but the combination of slightly quicker ground and the tight turns of Kempton probably didn’t suit the six-year-old. He is a thorough stayer and is likely to go down the four mile route at the Cheltenham Festival so the emphasis on galloping at Wetherby should be right up his street. He already has a Grade 2 success to his name having won at Newbury in November and should run another big race again here.
However I feel they both might find it tough to concede 7lb to DEFINITLY RED who was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles and seems to have taken well to fences on his first two starts. His stamina came to the fore at Catterick at the beginning of January and he turned in an even better effort to chase home Black Hercules at Warwick last time. His jumping was a little in and out last time but the fences come up so fast at Warwick that it can be difficult to pick a stride. Wetherby should be much more suitable for him and in receipt of weight from the top two, at the prices I am happy to go with him.
I should also mention Harry Fry’s Bitofapuzzle who has this as her first preference ahead of the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown. She gets a further 3lb from the top two but she made a silly mistake in Ireland last time and will need to sharpen up her jumping to trouble the front three in the market.
Advice
DEFINITLY RED – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, SkyBet)
3.00 Sandown – Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1)
Last year’s winner, Invicta Lake returns 1lb lower in the handicap than this time twelve months ago and he’s arguably in better form after a solid fourth to Taj Badalandabad, Westren Warrior and So Fine at Huntingdon last time out. Even at a big price, he’s hard to rule out, but this race looks a lot deeper this year than his previous triumph, so he’ll have to improve to win again.
There are two very decent looking novice hurdlers towards the top of the market, starting with Yala Enki, who has won two of his four starts in Britain and was fifth in the Fixed brush Hurdle at Haydock. His win over 2m4f last time out could be the key piece of form here, two lengths ahead of Westren Warrior on close to level weights, who beat Invicta Lake by eleven and a half lengths subsequently, giving him 5lb.
The step up in trip will probably suit Yala Enki as long as he can be kept calm before the race and at the head of affairs, but it will also suit the horse who was third in Yala Enki’s previous victory, IBIS DU RHEU. Related to Saphir Du Rheu, the five-year-old looks to be crying out for this extra distance, staying on from a held-up position to be just three and three quarter lengths behind Yala Enki. That effort should be marked up as he was the only horse to come from a deeper position to contend and he was also giving the winner 10lb – he now gives Yala Enki just 1lb. The combination of the step up in trip and swing at the weights make him a very appealing prospect here and even though he’s just five, he looks just the type to grind the race out.
Another to note is Medinas, past winner of the Long Distance Hurdle, Coral Cup and Welsh Champion Hurdle. Although, at nine years old, carrying top weight and off a break of more than a year, he may not be the force of old, he still has to command respect on ground that will suit. William Featherstone takes a much-needed 7lb off the small horse’s back, but I still suspect he’ll need the run.
Baywing also needs a mention, being on a five-timer, and if the 10lb higher mark doesn’t anchor his improvement he looks sure to run a decent race. However, he is a real mudlark and the ground, while probably soft, won’t be as heavy as would be ideal so I think he could be outpaced by a few before staying on late.
Advice
IBIS DU RHEU – 1pt win @ 5/1 (William Hill)
3.30 Sandown – Betfred Masters Handicap Chase
Course form can often play a big part here at Sandown and this race has a number of contenders with such form to their name. The place to start is with last year’s winner Le Reve who was winning here for the second time when landing this prize twelve months ago. That win came off a mark of 139 and he is now 5lb higher than that mark coming into this year’s race. His best run so far this term came at Kempton last month but he seems to thrive around here and having been fitted with blinkers for the first time tomorrow, he looks likely to play a leading role.
Venetia Williams’ Summery Justice ran a mighty race at the age of twelve in the London National here in December, finding the improving Carole’s Destrier too good on the day. He did however take a little while to get warmed up on that occasion so the drop back to three miles isn’t guaranteed to suit but he should still be considered. As should his stablemate Saroque who was fourth in the Welsh National last month. He won here over 2m4f in February last year and as long as his latest effort hasn’t taken too much out of him, he should be in the mix.
Paul Nicholls’ BLACK THUNDER can boast course and distance winning form having landed the Listed Future Stars Chase in December 2014. He was a pretty smart novice and found himself pretty high in the handicap as a result. The handicapper is now cutting him a bit of slack and he looks well-handicapped if he can produce his best form. He was a little unlucky to unseat in the Welsh National last time and he should run well returned to a quicker surface. He was second to What A Warrior last season off the same mark as he races today and I fancy him to take advantage of his sliding mark.
Advice
BLACK THUNDER – 1pt win @ 6/1 (William Hill)
3.50 Ffos Las – The Dribuild Rail Handicap Hurdle
With little strength in depth, CLYNE is a strong fancy on the back of his course and distance win back in December. He proved that day that he handles the testing ground that will face him this afternoon and the 4lb rise for that latest victory looks exceptionally lenient. He comfortably accounted for Heath Hunter (who landed this last year) and ran out a comfortable winner despite jumping left at the last. With only five runs under his belt, the six-year-old is very unexposed and he wouldn’t need to improve to notch back-to-back victories.
Fellow last-time-out scorer Cappielow Park would be of interest if bringing his game over fences to the smaller obstacles. Ali Stronge’s charge relishes boggy ground so today’s contest will definitely suit him but he does have a career-high mark to contend with and is 5lb higher than his last win over hurdles.
Cotillion is another that arrives here in decent heart having landed a pair of selling hurdles before producing his best effort for some time when second at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. He has gone up another 2lb for that though so it is difficult to see him getting his head in front here.
Consistent veteran Beau Lake has been out of sorts this season but he has been dropped 9lb by the assessor and is now on a more workable mark. He is on favourable terms with Cappielow Park if you look back to his defeat of today’s re-opposing rival on Boxing Day 2014 and is well up to winning a race of this nature if retaining his old vigour for the game at the ripe old age of 12.
Advice
CLYNE – 3pts win @ 2/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
4.05 Sandown – Betfred “Download The App” Novices´ Handicap Hurdle
The final race on Saturday sees Warren Greatrex’s Bon Enfant bid to extend his winning sequence over hurdles to three having won for the second time at Wetherby in December. In a small field, the five-year-old was left in front and made work of it in the end to justify short odds. His connections were keen to point out that the deep ground and being in front wouldn’t have helped and he looks an intriguing runner on his handicap debut. He does show signs of temperament in the preliminaries as well as during his races which would ring alarm bells for me and I think he is worth taking on.
With that in mind I am going to side with the juvenile PERCEUS who is officially rated 2lb higher than Bon Enfant but receives 9lb from that rival here. He has run into two smart juveniles in the shape of Wolfcatcher and Sceau Royal either side of a wide margin win at Uttoxeter and looks a smart prospect. His jumping needs tidying up judged on his latest effort but he has shown that he stays 2m4f already so I wouldn’t have any worries on that front. He gets in here off a relatively low weight and can upset the likely Warren Greatrex favourite.
Of the rest, it will be interesting to see how Nicky Henderson’s Birch Hill gets on having been off the track for about a year. He was largely disappointing in his four runs last term but won his point-to-point well and could be worth keeping an eye on returning from a break.
Advice
PERCEUS – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Paul Nicholls has won the last two editions of this race, and last year’s winner, Silsol, is back for more under the same partner, Jack Sherwood. With just a 3lb higher mark than when winning by five lengths in a horrendous bog last year, he’d have to hold claims, but I worry about horses that move back to hurdles after a half-decent start over fences. Two good efforts over the larger obstacles preceded a drubbing by Black Hercules at Warwick, but he certainly didn’t show a hatred of fences so it seems as if this could be an afterthought.
However, Nicholls does have another horse in the race for whom this could well have been the target all along. SAN BENEDETO has the services of the new #1 claimer in the Nicholls Stable and fits the profile of the last two winners for Nicholls in this race. Both Saphir Du Rheu and Silsol won this race the season before they went novice chasing and Nicholls has already spoken of how San Benedeto “will make a lovely chaser next year”. The previous two winners also had the services of the top claimer in the stable, Harry Derham in 2014 and Jack Sherwood in 2015 respectively, a position Harry Cobden now occupies. Cobden’s 7lb claim would make him 11lb lower in the weights than his stablemate, certainly a position from which he can take advantage and given the horse should have no issue with trip or ground judging on his last-time-out close second to the highly-regarded stayer One Track Mind from the Warren Greatrex stable, he has to be way too big a price at 12/1.
Deputy Dan’s second and third behind Thistlecrack on his last two starts read well, but his hurdles mark of 151 worries me, as does the drop in trip to two and a half miles. I know the ground will be tough going, but even so, it’s likely that he’ll be outpaced at a crucial stage before staying on again. He’ll probably run a decent race in suitable conditions but may just fall short.
One very interesting entrant is Rebecca Curtis’ Racing Pulse, who broke his maiden tag over fences last time out and reverts to hurdles and a slightly shorter trip here. His form over timber was decent, registering a mark of 144 when 3rd to Aubusson in a Cheltenham Neptune trial race on New Years’ Day of 2014. He beat Ballyalton home that day, so there’s obviously a fair amount of ability to tap into over the smaller obstacles and he could be a dark horse here.
Advice
SAN BENEDETO – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
2.25 Sandown – The Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1)
This looked to be a most intriguing event on paper but the sensational entries have cut up somewhat and taken the gloss off what looked to be a superb contest. Nevertheless, it’s still a competitive renewal and the winner will likely hold leading Festival claims come March.
With four of the field failing to complete last time, it will probably pay to side with those with an unblemished record over fences given the testing railway fences on Sandown’s chase course. Tea For Two is 2-2 over fences since seeing his form over the sticks tail off earlier in the season. His latest victory in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day was an eye-catching performance However, he drops back down in trip today and given how three miles certainly seemed to suit him last time, I am not overly convinced that the drop back in trip will play to all his strengths.
Therefore, the selection is BRISTOL DE MAI on the back of his barn-storming victory in the Grade 2 Altcar Novices’ Chase at Haydock a fortnight ago. You could question what he beat that day but the manner in which he flew round suggested that that didn’t matter one jot. The five-year-old led for the majority of the contest and jumped like a stag throughout, a most impressive round for one so young. On official handicap ratings, he is 1lb well in on Tea For Two and given that conditions here will suit him down to the ground, he looks great value for that.
Of the remainder, Bitofapuzzle would be next best as she is weighted to win solely on ratings. However, 2m4f may be on the sharp side for her and she is likely to take up her preferred engagement in the Towton at Wetherby in any case. As De Mee will benefit from the drop in trip following his fall behind Tea For Two in December given he looked exhausted when tipping up three out. That run looked to have taken a lot out of him and although he has ran with credit in some hot company, he looks set to play only a supporting role once more. Of more interest would be Maximiser as he still looked to be travelling okay when coming to grief last time out. His trainer’s record is a huge concern however as he hasn’t saddled a winner since back in August and his wellbeing must be taken on trust returning from a two month break. Ubak completes the field and although he looked set to open his account over fences until unseating at the last at Huntingdon in January, this looks to be a tough ask. He was a classy novice hurdler though so is clearly not devoid of ability.
Advice
BRISTOL DE MAI – 1pt win @ 7/4 (William Hill)
2.30 Leopardstown – Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
A superb-looking renewal of this Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and, as you would expect, Willie Mullins trains half the field. Outlander comes into the race off the back of two decent victories in his first two attempts over fences, doing just enough in the closing stages of his races to win. Clearly the trip and ground will be no problem, but he faces a much sterner task here against some extremely smart chasing prospects.
Speaking of which, Ruby Walsh has the ride on PONT ALEXANDRE who was disappointingly beaten one and a half lengths by Roi Des Francs over 3m in a Grade 2 Novices’ chase at Naas last time out. You can make plenty of excuses for that defeat – the winner had a perfect tow into the race behind the two leaders, Pont Alexandre was a bit keen, it was his second run after a long break and it was a tactical affair on heavy ground that suited a dour stayer like Roi Des Francs. Whichever you choose, you can go along with Mullins’ assertion that we didn’t see the best of him.
For the most part, the eight-year-old is a superb jumper, he has tactical speed and stays well, but perhaps most importantly, he has that touch of class that, over this slightly shorter trip, could make all the difference. I think he’ll bounce back to his best here before a trip to Cheltenham for the RSA or the JLT depending on the ground.
Opposing the Mullins pair, Zabana is the hype horse of the moment, having been heavily backed for the JLT in anticipation of a good run here. He is a horse I like and his chase debut victory over the reopposing Blair Perrone was impressive. I can’t see the A J Martin horse reversing that form and it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Zabana, even if he isn’t as well suited to soft ground as he is to a sounder surface. He should run well, but whether he’ll have the class to win is another question.
Monksland beat Roi Des Francs by one and a half lengths over two and a half miles and went down to No More Heroes over the same trip, so must be in with a shout, although his effort over three miles here was a little disappointing last time out. The drop back to an extended two and a half miles could suit and you can’t rule him out, but the same nagging doubt over whether he’ll be good enough remains.
Advice
PONT ALEXANDRE – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Boylesports)
2.45 Wetherby – Totepool Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)
Wetherby’s Towton Novices’ Chase often throws up a smart chaser and this year’s renewal looks no different with a number of potentially useful performers in the line-up despite the small field.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Blaklion currently heads the market at around the 6/4 mark and comes here having chased home Seeyouatmidnight home at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. That was over 2m5f and prior to that he had got off the mark over 3m at Cheltenham in December. A dual Grade 2 winner over hurdles, he looks to have earned a step up to this class but carries a 7lb penalty for his Class 2 novice chase success. He has jumped much better on his last two starts over the bigger obstacles but he gives me the impression that he might find one too good and on that basis I think he is worth taking on at the head of the market.
Native River is likely to have plenty of supporters despite disappointing in the Feltham over Christmas but the combination of slightly quicker ground and the tight turns of Kempton probably didn’t suit the six-year-old. He is a thorough stayer and is likely to go down the four mile route at the Cheltenham Festival so the emphasis on galloping at Wetherby should be right up his street. He already has a Grade 2 success to his name having won at Newbury in November and should run another big race again here.
However I feel they both might find it tough to concede 7lb to DEFINITLY RED who was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles and seems to have taken well to fences on his first two starts. His stamina came to the fore at Catterick at the beginning of January and he turned in an even better effort to chase home Black Hercules at Warwick last time. His jumping was a little in and out last time but the fences come up so fast at Warwick that it can be difficult to pick a stride. Wetherby should be much more suitable for him and in receipt of weight from the top two, at the prices I am happy to go with him.
I should also mention Harry Fry’s Bitofapuzzle who has this as her first preference ahead of the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown. She gets a further 3lb from the top two but she made a silly mistake in Ireland last time and will need to sharpen up her jumping to trouble the front three in the market.
Advice
DEFINITLY RED – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, SkyBet)
3.00 Sandown – Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1)
Last year’s winner, Invicta Lake returns 1lb lower in the handicap than this time twelve months ago and he’s arguably in better form after a solid fourth to Taj Badalandabad, Westren Warrior and So Fine at Huntingdon last time out. Even at a big price, he’s hard to rule out, but this race looks a lot deeper this year than his previous triumph, so he’ll have to improve to win again.
There are two very decent looking novice hurdlers towards the top of the market, starting with Yala Enki, who has won two of his four starts in Britain and was fifth in the Fixed brush Hurdle at Haydock. His win over 2m4f last time out could be the key piece of form here, two lengths ahead of Westren Warrior on close to level weights, who beat Invicta Lake by eleven and a half lengths subsequently, giving him 5lb.
The step up in trip will probably suit Yala Enki as long as he can be kept calm before the race and at the head of affairs, but it will also suit the horse who was third in Yala Enki’s previous victory, IBIS DU RHEU. Related to Saphir Du Rheu, the five-year-old looks to be crying out for this extra distance, staying on from a held-up position to be just three and three quarter lengths behind Yala Enki. That effort should be marked up as he was the only horse to come from a deeper position to contend and he was also giving the winner 10lb – he now gives Yala Enki just 1lb. The combination of the step up in trip and swing at the weights make him a very appealing prospect here and even though he’s just five, he looks just the type to grind the race out.
Another to note is Medinas, past winner of the Long Distance Hurdle, Coral Cup and Welsh Champion Hurdle. Although, at nine years old, carrying top weight and off a break of more than a year, he may not be the force of old, he still has to command respect on ground that will suit. William Featherstone takes a much-needed 7lb off the small horse’s back, but I still suspect he’ll need the run.
Baywing also needs a mention, being on a five-timer, and if the 10lb higher mark doesn’t anchor his improvement he looks sure to run a decent race. However, he is a real mudlark and the ground, while probably soft, won’t be as heavy as would be ideal so I think he could be outpaced by a few before staying on late.
Advice
IBIS DU RHEU – 1pt win @ 5/1 (William Hill)
3.30 Sandown – Betfred Masters Handicap Chase
Course form can often play a big part here at Sandown and this race has a number of contenders with such form to their name. The place to start is with last year’s winner Le Reve who was winning here for the second time when landing this prize twelve months ago. That win came off a mark of 139 and he is now 5lb higher than that mark coming into this year’s race. His best run so far this term came at Kempton last month but he seems to thrive around here and having been fitted with blinkers for the first time tomorrow, he looks likely to play a leading role.
Venetia Williams’ Summery Justice ran a mighty race at the age of twelve in the London National here in December, finding the improving Carole’s Destrier too good on the day. He did however take a little while to get warmed up on that occasion so the drop back to three miles isn’t guaranteed to suit but he should still be considered. As should his stablemate Saroque who was fourth in the Welsh National last month. He won here over 2m4f in February last year and as long as his latest effort hasn’t taken too much out of him, he should be in the mix.
Paul Nicholls’ BLACK THUNDER can boast course and distance winning form having landed the Listed Future Stars Chase in December 2014. He was a pretty smart novice and found himself pretty high in the handicap as a result. The handicapper is now cutting him a bit of slack and he looks well-handicapped if he can produce his best form. He was a little unlucky to unseat in the Welsh National last time and he should run well returned to a quicker surface. He was second to What A Warrior last season off the same mark as he races today and I fancy him to take advantage of his sliding mark.
Advice
BLACK THUNDER – 1pt win @ 6/1 (William Hill)
3.50 Ffos Las – The Dribuild Rail Handicap Hurdle
With little strength in depth, CLYNE is a strong fancy on the back of his course and distance win back in December. He proved that day that he handles the testing ground that will face him this afternoon and the 4lb rise for that latest victory looks exceptionally lenient. He comfortably accounted for Heath Hunter (who landed this last year) and ran out a comfortable winner despite jumping left at the last. With only five runs under his belt, the six-year-old is very unexposed and he wouldn’t need to improve to notch back-to-back victories.
Fellow last-time-out scorer Cappielow Park would be of interest if bringing his game over fences to the smaller obstacles. Ali Stronge’s charge relishes boggy ground so today’s contest will definitely suit him but he does have a career-high mark to contend with and is 5lb higher than his last win over hurdles.
Cotillion is another that arrives here in decent heart having landed a pair of selling hurdles before producing his best effort for some time when second at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. He has gone up another 2lb for that though so it is difficult to see him getting his head in front here.
Consistent veteran Beau Lake has been out of sorts this season but he has been dropped 9lb by the assessor and is now on a more workable mark. He is on favourable terms with Cappielow Park if you look back to his defeat of today’s re-opposing rival on Boxing Day 2014 and is well up to winning a race of this nature if retaining his old vigour for the game at the ripe old age of 12.
Advice
CLYNE – 3pts win @ 2/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
4.05 Sandown – Betfred “Download The App” Novices´ Handicap Hurdle
The final race on Saturday sees Warren Greatrex’s Bon Enfant bid to extend his winning sequence over hurdles to three having won for the second time at Wetherby in December. In a small field, the five-year-old was left in front and made work of it in the end to justify short odds. His connections were keen to point out that the deep ground and being in front wouldn’t have helped and he looks an intriguing runner on his handicap debut. He does show signs of temperament in the preliminaries as well as during his races which would ring alarm bells for me and I think he is worth taking on.
With that in mind I am going to side with the juvenile PERCEUS who is officially rated 2lb higher than Bon Enfant but receives 9lb from that rival here. He has run into two smart juveniles in the shape of Wolfcatcher and Sceau Royal either side of a wide margin win at Uttoxeter and looks a smart prospect. His jumping needs tidying up judged on his latest effort but he has shown that he stays 2m4f already so I wouldn’t have any worries on that front. He gets in here off a relatively low weight and can upset the likely Warren Greatrex favourite.
Of the rest, it will be interesting to see how Nicky Henderson’s Birch Hill gets on having been off the track for about a year. He was largely disappointing in his four runs last term but won his point-to-point well and could be worth keeping an eye on returning from a break.
Advice
PERCEUS – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
MrMcGoldrick
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mayo
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Anyone else surprised Carlingford Lough can be backed at 25s for this ?
Won the race last year and was well touted as a live Gold Cup horse as a result and ran well for a long way behind Coneygree, run one hurdle race this year and wasn't going a yard on horrific ground over Christmas will appreciate this slightly better ground, I accept there are others in better form but think the 25/1 could be an overreaction
Caught my eye too and very hard to second guess the connections but I suppose the niggle is that Aintree is the long term plan.
Wounded Warrior and Gilgamboa ew.
I've thrown way too many darts today but we keep living the dream:
Sand 2.25 Bristol De Mai
3.00 Ibis Du Rheu e/w
FL 2.05 Racing Pulse e/w
3.15 Cogry
Leop 1.55 Tombstone (and a massive shake up in the Supreme market)
3.40 Carlingford Lough e/w
4.15 On The Fringe
4.45 Kagney e/
Good luck to all who play
Sand 2.25 Bristol De Mai
3.00 Ibis Du Rheu e/w
FL 2.05 Racing Pulse e/w
3.15 Cogry
Leop 1.55 Tombstone (and a massive shake up in the Supreme market)
3.40 Carlingford Lough e/w
4.15 On The Fringe
4.45 Kagney e/
Good luck to all who play
MrMcGoldrick
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Did seem a big price but I drew a line through him because connections don't appear to have any confidence, hence the drift, Gilgamboa looks to be the one they're pinning their hopes on.
It wouldn't be a major surprise to me if On his own ran a big race, just wondering if RTR will be fully wound up 5 weeks before the fez, surely they will have left something to work on and, if so, there could be value elsewhere, First Lieutenant now 11/1, given another 50 yards and he would have collared Don Poli to win the Lexus and if that horse was running he would be around 6/4.
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MrMcGoldrick
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