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2016 Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle

Old Vic

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Donn


Sternrubin

Sternrubin put up a fairly remarkable performance to dead-heat with Jolly’s Cracked It for the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday, given how hard he went up front from flagfall.

Philip Hobbs’ horse was fully four lengths clear of habitual pace-setter Rayvin Black as they passed the winning post on the first circuit, and if you are ahead of Rayvin Black after two furlongs, you are probably going too fast. At that point, the first three were clear of the field, and the third, fourth and fifth horses home, Renneti, Some Plan and Song Light, were all out the back, they occupied three of the last five positions in the field of 21, while fellow-dead-heater Jollys Cracked It was also towards the rear.

Sternrubin settled into a lovely rhythm in front. He pinged along down the side of the course to Swinley Bottom, then he turned and pinged along up the other side. By the time he got to the home turn, he was travelling nicely in front, his immediate pursuers had dropped away, and just about everything else was coming under pressure in behind.

You would have forgiven Sternrubin if he had folded tamely from that point, but he didn’t. He jumped the last two flights well, and he stayed on strongly all the way to the line. Jolly’s Cracked It actually passed him half way up the run-in, he went at least a neck up and looked set for victory, so there was a lot to like about the manner in which Sternrubin battled back to force a dead heat. That was the action of a horse with a willing attitude and lots of strength. It was a massive performance in a race in which he almost certainly went too fast, and the winning time was seriously impressive, by far the fastest comparative time on the day.

The Authorized gelding had clocked a good time too when he won on his previous run, his seasonal debut at Newbury. He made all that day too, and he stayed on well to beat John Constable by four lengths. There was a general feeling around that he had been afforded an easy lead that day, but the winning time there was good too, he still had to physically cover the ground in the time.

The handicapper has raised him 8lb to a mark of 142 for this performance, but the performance merited that. He is only four, and this was just his eighth run over hurdles, so it is probable that he is still improving. He has only once been out of the first two in those eight runs, he finished second in four of his first five, and now he has won his next three. He is tough, he has pace, he stays well and he jumps well. He has all the armoury to progress further. He has never run at Cheltenham, but he could out-strip his new rating now. He handles this easy ground well, but he also goes well on good ground, he is an exciting young hurdler and he should continue to progress.



19th December 2015
 
Henry Higgins ? Dads race.
 
Plenty of blue on oddschecker for Blue Hell again today. The handicap hurdle he won before Christmas is turning out to be some race.

Will the handicapper put him up for being stood in his box?!
 
Here is one

The next Willie Mullins County Hurdle/Martin Pipe Hurdle winner may have run on Sunday…

He may not be too crash-hot in handicap chases on this side of the Irish Sea but he knows how to nail a handicap hurdle or two, specifically the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Hurdle.

Since 2010 he has landed three County Hurdles and three Martin Pipe Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. All six of those winners could be found by using the following little angle…

Willie Mullins County Hurdle/Martin Pipe Hurdle runners | Aged 5yo or 6yo | SP 25/1 or less

Applying those filters gives the following set of figures…

6/17 | 35% S/R | +£75.81 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/17 | 71% S/R

All six of his winners from only 17 qualifiers.

There were no qualifiers in 2012 and his two qualifiers in 2013 both placed.

The others years under scrutiny provided winners and a healthy profit.

It’s an extremely simple angle but also extremely profitable.

So who could be the likely candidate this year?

Step forward 5yo KALKIR, who ran an excellent second in the Coral.ie Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.

It was his first run for 10 months, since pulling up in last seasons Triumph Hurdle, but the promise he showed in the early part of his juvenile campaign is clearly still there and there is every chance he will improve a bundle for this outing.

He holds an entry for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury although that track hasn’t been the happiest hunting ground for Mullins raiders in recent seasons, with his 18 runners all finishing un-placed.

A solid mid-division finish there for Kalkir would be the ideal prep run for a tilt at the County Hurdle (or Martin Pipe Hurdle should they fancy stepping him up in trip) and providing he isn’t strung out with the no-hopers in the betting at Cheltenham (he shouldn’t be) then he will be a snug qualifier on my Mullins County/Martin Pipe Hurdle angle.

Even if he doesn’t end up heading to the festival he’s well worth keeping on the radar as he is surely some way better than his current mark of OR 137 (will go up for this).

Keep Kalkir on the radar, he’s definitely got a handicap hurdle in him somewhere before seasons end…

- See more at: http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.u...ekend-16th-17th-january/#sthash.6ouRfklh.dpuf
 
Was looking for something else and found an interview with Ricci is November 2014, not sure how well known his French form is but this is useful to know:

"Kalkir is three and ran a great race in a newcomers race at Auteuil when only just behind Bonito Du Berlais, who has gone on to win four on the trot, including a Grade 1 by 12 lengths in the newcomers race at Auteuil. He's one we are really looking forward to, and is hopefully a Triumph Hurdle horse."
 
Was looking for something else and found an interview with Ricci is November 2014, not sure how well known his French form is but this is useful to know:

"Kalkir is three and ran a great race in a newcomers race at Auteuil when only just behind Bonito Du Berlais, who has gone on to win four on the trot, including a Grade 1 by 12 lengths in the newcomers race at Auteuil. He's one we are really looking forward to, and is hopefully a Triumph Hurdle horse."

Nov 2013 ? PU in Triumph last year.

There were a couple more pulled out of Kalkirs race by notebook on sporting life

Desoto County (Gordon Elliott), After Rain (Shay Barry)

This is a race where the form stacks up well, year after year, and I have no hesitation in suggesting that this is a video replay that should be watched at least twice for future clues - at least half a dozen of last year's field ended up at the Cheltenham Festival in a variety of contests a couple of months later. My colleague above has already made passing mention of Desoto County. There is always the risk that horses who look as if they may potentially have been unlucky losers could be over-bet next time, but I can't reach any other conclusion about Desoto County other than had the race been run at a decent gallop, or had he not been trapped between a wall of horses coming off the final bend, he would have won - and this coming from a man who backed the actual winner Henry Higgins. He probably won't get in the County Hurdle, but could go for the Martin Pipe, although the same trainer also has Diamond King for that. Frankly, wherever he goes, I don't want to be taking him on. Favourite After Rain was a shade uneasy in the betting in the final minutes before the race and I suspect the owner couldn't make his mind up between his eight runners in the race. He was better positioned than most, but the way the race panned out didn't suit. When Barry Geraghty asked him suddenly for a change of gear, he took half a dozen strides too many to find it, was quickly swamped and his ride abandoned hope. There will be another day for him in a similar contest. (Will Hayler)
 
Kalkir gets a mention from Pat Keane too

Mullins’ lightly-raced Kalkir is a most interesting horse going forward, having made a belated seasonal debut when runner-up behind Henry Higgins in the valuable Coral Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.

He is a five-year-old and we know horses of that age can be notoriously difficult to place. He was a useful juvenile last season, having come from France.

Kalkir only ran once in his native country, finishing fourth at Auteuil, and then took a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse on his first outing for Mullins.

But then he was beaten three times after that, concluding with being pulled up in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.

He had 11-0 to carry in the fiercely competitive — at least in theory — Coral Hurdle and beat everything out of the gate, except the easy winner, Henry Higgins.

The handicapper had his say this week and has bumped Kalkir up by 7lbs to a mark of 144. What will be Mullins’ next move?
 
Dicky

Wait For Me

Just a quick word on Wait For Me who won again last week.

He really is still a big baby, but jumped much better when in behind horses.

Then, when he hit the front he jumped like he’d never seen a hurdle before. I’m convinced he’ll be better in a better race where they’ll go a lot faster.

As for Cheltenham plans, we’ll just have to see. He’s in the novice hurdles, but could end up in a race like the County Hurdle.
 
Just doing some trends for this race and noted that the Irish have won 9 of the last 11 renewals including the first 6 home last year.
Even when Lac Fontana won for Nicholls in 2014 the Irish managed 4 of the first 6 home.
So I would certainly be looking at the Irish entries before any UK challenger, though this fact/trend is unlikely to have missed the attention of the 'capper....
 
Hobbs in Weekender: Sternrubin & Wait For Me to County
 
The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3, £90,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 2.10pm, Friday, March 18, two miles and one furlong (2m 179yds). For five-year-olds and upwards. Penalties: after February 28, a winner of a hurdle race 5lb. No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed February 23 (96 entries), entries released February 25, weights revealed March 2. Six-day confirmation stage March 12, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 17. Maximum field of 26.

Horse Age Owner Trainer
A HARE BREATH (IRE) 8 Mrs S N J Embiricos Ben Pauling
AFFAIRE D'HONNEUR (FR) 5 Holt Robinson Kronbauer Macnabb O'Connor Harry Whittington
ALL YOURS (FR) 5 Mr&MrsPKBarber&Potensis Bloodstock Ltd Paul Nicholls
ALLEE BLEUE (IRE) 6 Andrew L Cohen Philip Hobbs
ARBRE DE VIE (FR) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
ARISTO DU PLESSIS (FR) 6 Mrs J M Dodd James Ewart
ART OF PAYROLL (GER) 7 Bishopsgate Syndicate Sandra Hughes IRE
ASTRE DE LA COUR (FR) 6 The Front Runners Partnership Robert Walford
AURORE D'ESTRUVAL (FR) 6 Carl Hinchy Rebecca Curtis
BALL D'ARC (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
BAMAKO MORIVIERE (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
BANK BONUS 7 STU Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
BENTELIMAR (IRE) 7 James Ryan Shay Barry IRE
BIGMARTRE (FR) 5 P J Dixon Harry Whittington
BLUE HELL (FR) 6 Barry Connell Alan Fleming IRE
BLUE RAMBLER 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
CARDINAL WALTER (IRE) 7 Fitri Hay Nicky Henderson
CASTLEMORRIS KING 8 Darrel Elswood Brian Barr
CHARBEL (IRE) 5 Mrs Julie Martin and David R Martin Kim Bailey
CHELTENIAN (FR) 10 Roger Brookhouse Philip Hobbs
CLONDAW WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Act D Wagg Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
CURIOUS CARLOS 7 Carl Pyne Peter Bowen
CYRIUS MORIVIERE (FR) 6 The Pillar P Partnership Ben Pauling
DAYS OF HEAVEN (FR) 6 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
DELL' ARCA (IRE) 7 Prof Caroline Tisdall David Pipe
DESOTO COUNTY 7 Paul & Clare Rooney Gordon Elliott IRE
DEVILMENT 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
DICOSIMO (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
DRACO 7 J P McManus Aidan O'Brien IRE
DUBAI PRINCE (IRE) 8 Bloomfields John Ferguson
EBADANI (IRE) 6 The Brook House Syndicate Jamie Snowden
EBONY EXPRESS 7 ValueRacingClubcouk Dr Richard Newland
FETHARD PLAYER (IRE) 9 William Treacy William Treacy IRE
FLEMENTIME (IRE) 8 Figjam II Martin Keighley
FLYING ANGEL (IRE) 5 R J Rexton Nigel Twiston-Davies
FOR GOOD MEASURE (IRE) 5 J P McManus Philip Hobbs
FRANCIS OF ASSISI (IRE) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
GABRIAL THE GREAT (IRE) 7 Paul & Clare Rooney David Pipe
GRAND PARTNER (IRE) 8 Mrs H Mullins Thomas Mullins IRE
GREAT FIELD (FR) 5 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
HAWK HIGH (IRE) 6 Trevor Hemmings Tim Easterby
HENRY HIGGINS (IRE) 6 J P McManus Charles O'Brien IRE
HOLLY BUSH HENRY (IRE) 5 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Graeme McPherson
IRVING 8 Axom XLIX Paul Nicholls
ITS'AFREEBEE (IRE) 6 Rebel Jumping Dan Skelton
ITTIRAD (USA) 8 Bloomfields John Ferguson
IVAN GROZNY (FR) 6 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
JOHN CONSTABLE (IRE) 5 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Evan Williams
KALKIR (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
KAYF BLANCO 7 Mrs LDay, HBurdett & GMcPherson Graeme McPherson
LOUGH KENT 7 Caroline Mould Nicky Henderson
MAD JACK MYTTON (IRE) 6 J C & S R Hitchins Jonjo O'Neill
MARRACUDJA (FR) 5 Potensis Bloodstock Limited Paul Nicholls
MATORICO (IRE) 5 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
MODUS 6 J P McManus Paul Nicholls
MONTBAZON (FR) 9 David Sewell Alan King
MONTDRAGON (FR) 6 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
NABUCCO 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson
ONE FOR THE GUV'NR (IRE) 7 Bradley Partnership Nicky Henderson
ORDINARY WORLD (IRE) 6 Chris Jones Henry de Bromhead IRE

PENGLAI PAVILION (USA) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
QEWY (IRE) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
RAYVIN BLACK 7 R White & V J Walsh Oliver Sherwood
ROYAL CAVIAR (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
SGT RECKLESS 9 Tim Radford Mick Channon
SIGN OF A VICTORY (IRE) 7 Matt & Lauren Morgan Nicky Henderson
SIR SCORPION (IRE) 7 J P McManus Thomas Mullins IRE
SIZING TENNESSEE (IRE) 8 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
SLOWFOOT (GER) 8 Slowfoot Partnership Jim Best
SOLSTICE STAR 6 E&G Racing Ltd Martin Keighley
SOME PLAN (IRE) 8 Roger Brookhouse Paul Nicholls
SQUOUATEUR (FR) 5 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE
STARCHITECT (IRE) 5 Paul & Clare Rooney David Pipe
STEPHANIE FRANCES (IRE) 8 Miss Mandy Hall Dan Skelton
STERNRUBIN (GER) 5 Terry Warner Philip Hobbs
SUPERB STORY (IRE) 5 A Holt, J Robinson, A Taylor & S Miller Dan Skelton
TARA FLOW 6 Kate & Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
TEMPO MAC (IRE) 6 John P McGovern Gordon Elliott IRE
THE GAME CHANGER (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
THE PLAN MAN (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
THE STOMP (FR) 6 Jean-Claude Rouget Francois Nicolle FR
THEATRE FLAME (IRE) 6 CWB LLP David Bridgwater
THREE KINGDOMS (IRE) 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson
TIGER ROLL (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
TOTALIZE 7 D Gilbert, M Lawrence, A Bruce Brian Ellison
TOWNSHEND (GER) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
TULLY EAST (IRE) 6 Barry Connell Alan Fleming IRE
TYCOON PRINCE (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
VERCINGETORIX (IRE) 5 Simon Munir/Isaac Souede Gordon Elliott IRE
VIEUX LILLE (IRE) 6 Louisville Syndicate III Philip Hobbs
WAIT FOR ME (FR) 6 Andrew L Cohen Philip Hobbs
WAR SOUND 7 The Englands and Heywoods Philip Hobbs
WAXIES DARGLE 7 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE
WINNER MASSAGOT (FR) 5 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King
ZAIDIYN (FR) 6 P J Martin Brian Ellison
ZAMDY MAN 7 Muhammad Nadeem Khan Venetia Williams
96 entries
31 Irish-trained
1 French-trained
 
Great Field the new favourite - but chance totally in the handicappers hands ?
 
I wonder what mark he'll get. Beat a horse with an Irish rating of 135 virtually on the bridle.
 
I haven't seen anything yet. I think the Coral Cup would be favorite, if he goes.
 
I haven't seen anything yet. I think the Coral Cup would be favorite, if he goes.

What do you make of this WM quote from Sporting Life..."He's really a chaser as he's a fine big, strong horse. I thought he jumped fantastically and he's a horse for the future, I think."

Now looks at the Mullin's handicap hurdle winners in the last 5 years and see how they developed...

Martin Pipe - 2011 Sir Des Champs, 2014 Don Poli, 2015 Killultagh Vic. (all developed into top staying chasers)
County Hurdle - 2010 Thousand Stars, 2011 Final Approach, 2015 Wicklow Brave. (all stayed as graded hurdlers)
Coral - none

If he's really chaser and as good as he says he is, then the Martin Pipe has got to be the route?
 
I'm fairly sure he'll be rated to highly to run in the Martin Pipe LR. Horses rated over 145 can't run in the MP and I'd imagine he'll be pushing 150.
 
I just watched his race back and he looks a serious horse.

When will we know the weights so that we can judge which race he will target?
 
I'm fairly sure he'll be rated to highly to run in the Martin Pipe LR. Horses rated over 145 can't run in the MP and I'd imagine he'll be pushing 150.

If you are 100% sure F_M I might lump on the ap 16's.
 
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