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As usual relatively small fields today but have had a look at the card
2:10 The first of the Neptune roads to the festival races race of the year but only TNO has doubled up in the past decade. Nicholls has a good strike rate in the race but no runner. 5/10 favourites have won and no winner bigger than 11/2. The two heading the market are De Bromheads Exarro and Ferguson's Penglai Pavilion. I am going to pass over both and take a chance on SANDYMOUNT DUKE at the prices(7/1 Bet365). He was well beaten by Exarro ( given an inspired stirupless ride in finish by Geraghty) in Killarney back in August but had run up a four timer previously and I will take a chance that was not his true running.
2:45 Cant see an angle on the race and think any one of the four could win.If I had to bet SIZING CODELCO at 4/1 would be the selection.
3:20 I believe Buena Vista qualified for the Pertemps Final via this race and always had a theory that its might be worth looking out for horses that get qualified for Pertemps early in the season of course that doesnt mean they are likely winners today. 5/6 carried 10-13 or less and there have been 5/6 beaten favourites with 5/6 returned 17/2 or more. There are afew meeting these trends and I have taken a guess that KING BORU might be the one.
3.55 Some familar names have won this is recent seasons with Paul Nicholls training 3/10 winners. VINCENTE won at this meeting in 2014 and is the most likely winner in my view. Shantou Flyer seems overpriced at 14/1 and may give the selection most to do.
4:30 Newsworthy is jointly owned by Mr Buckley and Mrs Ricci and as such may be over hyped and underpriced on the other hand Hendersons seem further forward that other years. Drumlee Sunset looks the one to beat. He changed hands at Brightwell sale in 2014 and is a previous p2p winner. Judge his form for your self here http://tv.p2p.ie/?tube=953. A race to watch with aview to the future I think.
17:05 Nigel Twiston Davies and Neill Mullholland have targeted this race in recent years and their two runners must make the shortlist. However the Gordon Elliott/ JJ Codd combo is the one I like to be onside with and DEFINITE RUBY is the selection. Gordon Elliott at the meeting is 7/32 | 22% S/R | +£20. 10 BFLSP Win & Place 14/32 | 44% S/R and will carry my ew monies.
17:40 The favourite Clondaw Banker has been a bookies friend and is passed over. OLD GUARD ran in the Triumph finishing down the field but Nicholls form at the meeting and placing of these types is respected. Damefirth and Mantou might also be worth a second look.
Good Luck all and DYOR :encouragement:
news and previous winners
http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Cheltenham-Showcase-Day-1-405
a few stats
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some excellent <a href="https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces">@CheltenhamRaces</a> showcase stats from <a href="https://twitter.com/Narrowthefield">@Narrowthefield</a>
<a href="https://t.co/6SYWaJpTqa">https://t.co/6SYWaJpTqa</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/657471288848613376">October 23, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
2:10 The first of the Neptune roads to the festival races race of the year but only TNO has doubled up in the past decade. Nicholls has a good strike rate in the race but no runner. 5/10 favourites have won and no winner bigger than 11/2. The two heading the market are De Bromheads Exarro and Ferguson's Penglai Pavilion. I am going to pass over both and take a chance on SANDYMOUNT DUKE at the prices(7/1 Bet365). He was well beaten by Exarro ( given an inspired stirupless ride in finish by Geraghty) in Killarney back in August but had run up a four timer previously and I will take a chance that was not his true running.
2:45 Cant see an angle on the race and think any one of the four could win.If I had to bet SIZING CODELCO at 4/1 would be the selection.
3:20 I believe Buena Vista qualified for the Pertemps Final via this race and always had a theory that its might be worth looking out for horses that get qualified for Pertemps early in the season of course that doesnt mean they are likely winners today. 5/6 carried 10-13 or less and there have been 5/6 beaten favourites with 5/6 returned 17/2 or more. There are afew meeting these trends and I have taken a guess that KING BORU might be the one.
3.55 Some familar names have won this is recent seasons with Paul Nicholls training 3/10 winners. VINCENTE won at this meeting in 2014 and is the most likely winner in my view. Shantou Flyer seems overpriced at 14/1 and may give the selection most to do.
4:30 Newsworthy is jointly owned by Mr Buckley and Mrs Ricci and as such may be over hyped and underpriced on the other hand Hendersons seem further forward that other years. Drumlee Sunset looks the one to beat. He changed hands at Brightwell sale in 2014 and is a previous p2p winner. Judge his form for your self here http://tv.p2p.ie/?tube=953. A race to watch with aview to the future I think.
17:05 Nigel Twiston Davies and Neill Mullholland have targeted this race in recent years and their two runners must make the shortlist. However the Gordon Elliott/ JJ Codd combo is the one I like to be onside with and DEFINITE RUBY is the selection. Gordon Elliott at the meeting is 7/32 | 22% S/R | +£20. 10 BFLSP Win & Place 14/32 | 44% S/R and will carry my ew monies.
17:40 The favourite Clondaw Banker has been a bookies friend and is passed over. OLD GUARD ran in the Triumph finishing down the field but Nicholls form at the meeting and placing of these types is respected. Damefirth and Mantou might also be worth a second look.
Good Luck all and DYOR :encouragement:
news and previous winners
http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Cheltenham-Showcase-Day-1-405
a few stats
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some excellent <a href="https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces">@CheltenhamRaces</a> showcase stats from <a href="https://twitter.com/Narrowthefield">@Narrowthefield</a>
<a href="https://t.co/6SYWaJpTqa">https://t.co/6SYWaJpTqa</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/657471288848613376">October 23, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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