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1.45 York – Sky Bet Best Odds Guaranteed EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap)
David O’Meara’s Supreme Occasion had some good form as a two-year-old and she showed the first glimpse of a return to that when second at Ascot on her latest start. She was dropped back to a mile on that occasion and settled much better before staying on in the closing stages to chase home the winner. It will be important to the way she finishes how well she settles early on and it will be interesting to see how she is ridden. She also seemed to benefit for the return to handicaps and with the David O’Meara team continuing to fire in the winners, it would be no surprise to see her right in the shake-up here.
However, she may have her work cut out to beat Henry Candy’s CHAIN OF DAISIES who has improved no end since stepping up to a mile and a quarter. She has made all on her last two starts, the latest of which saw her draw clear impressively in the closing stages to score by three and a quarter lengths at the line. She has gone up 9lb for her latest success but the way in which she galloped clear last time suggests to me that may not be enough to stop her. She looks a progressive filly and I think her rivals will have their work cut out to beat her here.
2.05 Ascot – Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes (Group 3)
William Haggas’ BESHARAH has had plenty of racing already with this being her fifth start of the campaign but she was beaten just a nose in the Duchess Of Cambridge at the July meeting. She beat Richard Hannon’s filly Whatdoiwanthatfor at Windsor although she did have the benefit of experience that day and she has also finished in front of Mick Channon’s Kassia on two occasions this term. She had the worst of the draw at Royal Ascot but made good late headway to finish third and she seemed to relish the extra furlong at Newmarket last time. She sets a very high standard for her rivals and I am sure she is the one to beat.
Whatdoiwantthatfor followed her debut defeat by winning impressively at Leicester next time out by three lengths. She stepped into a conditions event at Windsor last time and although she took a little while to get going, she was well on top at the finish and is clearly improving with her racing. The Hannons have won two of the last three renewals of this race and the return to six furlongs should be right up her street. If Besharah should show any ill effects from so many runs it could be this filly that is the one to benefit.
I should also mention Salvo who made quite an impression when winning on debut at the July meeting. The yard are not noted for their first time out winners and her trainer confessed to be a little surprised with the way she did it on debut. She has some nice entries later in the year in the Rockfel and the Cheveley Park Stakes and having had just one run to date, she offers a different form line here. In truth she could be anything and given the way she won first time, she deserves plenty of respect.
2.20 York – Win £5,000 With Sportinglife.Com Pick 6 Stakes (Handicap)
David O’Meara’s course and distance winner Alejandro’s handicap mark continues to fall and he is now 4lb lower than when winning this race last year. He got upset in the preliminaries at Haydock last time which was unlike him and having led, he just didn’t seem to finish his race off, finishing fourth at the line. He showed up well for a long way again there and it is possible that the ground was slow enough for him that day. York are forecast to have fast ground on Saturday which should suit the six-year-old much better and if he is allowed to dictate in front, on his best form it will take a good one to peg him back.
One of the more interesting runners in the lineup is INTENSE STYLE who has his first start for Les Eyre having been previously in the care of Jim Bolger. He was sold privately a few weeks ago and was last seen on the racecourse when chasing home Anthem Alexander in fourth in a Group 3 back at the beginning of June. He hasn’t been overly raced and beat Dick Whittington in his maiden victory last year. He gets a three-year-old allowance which should help him off a mark of 100 and having been beaten a short-head off this mark at the beginning of the season, he looks well-placed to go close on his first start for new connections.
Kevin Ryan’s Salateen is also of interest on the best of his two-year-old form having finished fifth in the Acomb over course and distance last August. He was also third behind Elm Park in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket but was not seen this year until being well beaten at Haydock at the end of May. He was heavily eased in the closing stages that day having led so it may be best to put a line through that effort. This race should suit him better and although he will need to bounce back from a below-par effort, it would be no surprise to see him leave that form well behind.
2.40 Ascot – Weatherbys Private Banking Handicap
Sir Michael Stoute’s Grand Inquisitor has started to show signs of repaying his sizeable price tag on his last two starts, most recently when dropped back to seven furlongs at Sandown. He was ridden patiently last time but having made a sweeping move down the outside to hit the front and draw clear, he was driven out to score by three-quarters of a length at the line. He was just looking around a little in front that day and over a furlong further, I think he will be ridden towards the rear of proceedings here and delivered late. He is clearly heading the right way and whilst 11lb is a sharp enough rise considering the winning margin, I anticipate that he will be in the shake-up.
Laidback Romeo justified strong market support when winning in taking fashion at Windsor last month. He was keen early on that day but ran on strongly inside the final furlong to win by two and three-quarter lengths. The form of that race has not really worked out but he was only raised 6lb and with Cam Hardie taking off a valuable claim, 3lb is not much of a rise to overcome. He ran well here over course and distance on his return to action in May and having appeared to take a big step forward last time, he can’t be ruled out.
However, I like the look of Andrew Balding’s ROCKET PUNCH who did plenty wrong at Kempton a couple of weeks ago but finished his race off really well to get up and land the spoils. He showed plenty of signs of inexperience having been slowly away from the stalls and had to be ridden along to pick up the bridle. However he was well on top at the finish and he should be able to overcome a 5lb rise in the handicap. He will need to step forward and improve mentally for his latest run but he is clearly a nice horse in the making and I think he could prove a good deal better than his current mark of 85.
2.55 York – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)
The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Tha’ir has been pretty consistent over the last eighteen months and having tasted success at Meydan in the Spring, he made all to win a Listed contest at Sandown on his return to action at the beginning of July. There were only four runners that day but he dictated from the front and pulled clear in the style of a good horse on the run to the line. Kirklees came here on the back of victory in the same race to win in 2009 for connections and he looks likely to be in the shake-up. As long as there are no non-runners we have a field of eight and at around the 8/1 mark, he looks to hold solid each-way claims.
The only three-year-old in the line-up Castlelyons may be 25/1 but I wouldn’t be too quick to rule him out of contention despite having only run once. He looked like he had the potential to be a very good horse when winning an admittedly fairly average Cork maiden in April and he was subsequently sold to these connections for 170,000 guineas in May. His trainer is perhaps better known for his exploits over obstacles and it could be that is the plan with this gelding but he bounced off the summer ground on debut and he could be anything. He would obviously have to be very smart to win this on just his second start against some experienced performers but I think he can outrun his sizeable odds.
In terms of who will win the race, I think PRINCE GIBRALTAR has plenty going in his favour despite not having won since May last year. He was twice placed in Group 1 company last season and ran well to finish seventh in the Arc behind Treve. He showed very little on his return to action in May but took a big step forward when running Manatee close at the end of that month. He would probably prefer a bit of cut in the ground but he could just be the class horse in the line-up here.
3.15 Ascot – Gigaset International Stakes (HANDICAP)
The 7f International Handicap is always a competitive affair and this year’s renewal looks no different. The first thing to consider is that six of the last ten winners had finished in the first five places on their most recent outing, suggesting that horses in form often do well here. When applying that to this year’s field there are sixteen qualifiers including the likes of Speculative Bid, Heaven’s Guest and Donncha.
In terms of age, by far the most successful group are the four-year-olds who have accounted for seven of the last ten winners of the race. They have no less than eleven representatives this time around and look well placed to add further to that tally. On a more negative note, there has been no three-year-old winner in the last decade which is bad news for supporters of Burnt Sugar and Enlace with the same stat also applying to runners aged six or older in the line-up.
The draw at Ascot is always a hot point of contention as, quite simply, if your selection races down the ‘wrong side’, they have little chance of winning. Of course, working out which is the ‘wrong side’ is easier said than done and usually requires watching the first few races to try and get an idea. Writing this in advance, I am virtually blind but personal experience is suggesting to me that the stands rail will be the place to be tomorrow. When they redeveloped Ascot, they did a fine job on the drainage system on the straight course and to be fair to them it does seem to be a lot fairer. One thing is almost guaranteed a draw close to a rail is an advantage in any race and it is interesting that 7 of the last 10 winners had been drawn 5 stalls off either rail.
Horses carrying big weights in handicaps can often struggle and this race seems no exception as nine of the last ten winners carried 9st 4lb or less. Only five of the line-up for this year’s renewal sit outside this bracket with Zarwaan (9st 10lb), Balty Boys (9st 9lb), Field Of Dream (9st 6lb), Lincoln (9st 5lb) and Speculative Bid (9st 5lb) all hoping to defy this trend.
It is also worth noting that there are two notable trials for this race, the Royal Hunt Cup and the Bunbury Cup, with six of the last ten winners having taken part in at least one prior to running here. This splits the field just about in half with fourteen of the field having run in either race.
The final factor worthy of a mention is the betting and given the competitive nature of the race, it is little surprise that it has been something of a graveyard for favourites over the years. There has been no winning favourite in the last decade and with winners priced at 25/1, 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1 in recent years, this looks like a race in which it can pay to take a chance on one at a big price.
Shortlist
JALLOTA – 6/6
Lincoln – 5/6
Brazos – 5/6
Suzi’s Connoisseur – 5/6
Conclusion
JALLOTA tops ours shortlist having matched all six of our trends and comes here on the back of finishing fifth in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. Prior to that run, he got up close home to deny One Word More in a valuable handicap at York and another bold bid is expected here. He has been drawn on the stands side rail in stall 27 and just sneaks in on the right side of the weights at 9st 4lb. He is in good form at the moment and at around the 20/1 mark, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.
Also towards the head of the weights is Mick Channon’s Lincoln who with 9st 5lb on his back misses the weight trend by just 1lb. Other than that he looks likely to run well having finished second over course and distance in the Victoria Cup back in May and he was unfortunate to be drawn on the wrong side in the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal meeting. He was not disgraced in Group 3 company on his latest start and on his return to handicap company, he looks to have a strong profile.
Twelve months ago, Brazos was the only three-year-old in the line-up and could finish only eighteenth behind Heavy Metal but as we know the Classic generation tend to struggle in this race. He didn’t run in either the Bunbury Cup or the Royal Hunt Cup and was last seen on a racecourse in May when third of eight at Chester. He has previously won over course and distance and having had a break, he could just be a bit fresher than some of his rivals who have been on the go for a little while.
The final member of the shortlist is Suzi’s Connoisseur who has performed consistently well on his last three starts. The latest of those came in the Bunbury Cup where he finished sixth behind Rene Mathis but he wears a visor for the first time today in a bid to bring about further improvement. He is drawn on the opposite side of the track to the rest of the shortlist in one so it will be interesting to see how he fares against the far-side group. Having been sixth last time he just misses out on the full house and makes plenty of appeal at around the 16/1 mark.
David O’Meara’s Supreme Occasion had some good form as a two-year-old and she showed the first glimpse of a return to that when second at Ascot on her latest start. She was dropped back to a mile on that occasion and settled much better before staying on in the closing stages to chase home the winner. It will be important to the way she finishes how well she settles early on and it will be interesting to see how she is ridden. She also seemed to benefit for the return to handicaps and with the David O’Meara team continuing to fire in the winners, it would be no surprise to see her right in the shake-up here.
However, she may have her work cut out to beat Henry Candy’s CHAIN OF DAISIES who has improved no end since stepping up to a mile and a quarter. She has made all on her last two starts, the latest of which saw her draw clear impressively in the closing stages to score by three and a quarter lengths at the line. She has gone up 9lb for her latest success but the way in which she galloped clear last time suggests to me that may not be enough to stop her. She looks a progressive filly and I think her rivals will have their work cut out to beat her here.
2.05 Ascot – Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes (Group 3)
William Haggas’ BESHARAH has had plenty of racing already with this being her fifth start of the campaign but she was beaten just a nose in the Duchess Of Cambridge at the July meeting. She beat Richard Hannon’s filly Whatdoiwanthatfor at Windsor although she did have the benefit of experience that day and she has also finished in front of Mick Channon’s Kassia on two occasions this term. She had the worst of the draw at Royal Ascot but made good late headway to finish third and she seemed to relish the extra furlong at Newmarket last time. She sets a very high standard for her rivals and I am sure she is the one to beat.
Whatdoiwantthatfor followed her debut defeat by winning impressively at Leicester next time out by three lengths. She stepped into a conditions event at Windsor last time and although she took a little while to get going, she was well on top at the finish and is clearly improving with her racing. The Hannons have won two of the last three renewals of this race and the return to six furlongs should be right up her street. If Besharah should show any ill effects from so many runs it could be this filly that is the one to benefit.
I should also mention Salvo who made quite an impression when winning on debut at the July meeting. The yard are not noted for their first time out winners and her trainer confessed to be a little surprised with the way she did it on debut. She has some nice entries later in the year in the Rockfel and the Cheveley Park Stakes and having had just one run to date, she offers a different form line here. In truth she could be anything and given the way she won first time, she deserves plenty of respect.
2.20 York – Win £5,000 With Sportinglife.Com Pick 6 Stakes (Handicap)
David O’Meara’s course and distance winner Alejandro’s handicap mark continues to fall and he is now 4lb lower than when winning this race last year. He got upset in the preliminaries at Haydock last time which was unlike him and having led, he just didn’t seem to finish his race off, finishing fourth at the line. He showed up well for a long way again there and it is possible that the ground was slow enough for him that day. York are forecast to have fast ground on Saturday which should suit the six-year-old much better and if he is allowed to dictate in front, on his best form it will take a good one to peg him back.
One of the more interesting runners in the lineup is INTENSE STYLE who has his first start for Les Eyre having been previously in the care of Jim Bolger. He was sold privately a few weeks ago and was last seen on the racecourse when chasing home Anthem Alexander in fourth in a Group 3 back at the beginning of June. He hasn’t been overly raced and beat Dick Whittington in his maiden victory last year. He gets a three-year-old allowance which should help him off a mark of 100 and having been beaten a short-head off this mark at the beginning of the season, he looks well-placed to go close on his first start for new connections.
Kevin Ryan’s Salateen is also of interest on the best of his two-year-old form having finished fifth in the Acomb over course and distance last August. He was also third behind Elm Park in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket but was not seen this year until being well beaten at Haydock at the end of May. He was heavily eased in the closing stages that day having led so it may be best to put a line through that effort. This race should suit him better and although he will need to bounce back from a below-par effort, it would be no surprise to see him leave that form well behind.
2.40 Ascot – Weatherbys Private Banking Handicap
Sir Michael Stoute’s Grand Inquisitor has started to show signs of repaying his sizeable price tag on his last two starts, most recently when dropped back to seven furlongs at Sandown. He was ridden patiently last time but having made a sweeping move down the outside to hit the front and draw clear, he was driven out to score by three-quarters of a length at the line. He was just looking around a little in front that day and over a furlong further, I think he will be ridden towards the rear of proceedings here and delivered late. He is clearly heading the right way and whilst 11lb is a sharp enough rise considering the winning margin, I anticipate that he will be in the shake-up.
Laidback Romeo justified strong market support when winning in taking fashion at Windsor last month. He was keen early on that day but ran on strongly inside the final furlong to win by two and three-quarter lengths. The form of that race has not really worked out but he was only raised 6lb and with Cam Hardie taking off a valuable claim, 3lb is not much of a rise to overcome. He ran well here over course and distance on his return to action in May and having appeared to take a big step forward last time, he can’t be ruled out.
However, I like the look of Andrew Balding’s ROCKET PUNCH who did plenty wrong at Kempton a couple of weeks ago but finished his race off really well to get up and land the spoils. He showed plenty of signs of inexperience having been slowly away from the stalls and had to be ridden along to pick up the bridle. However he was well on top at the finish and he should be able to overcome a 5lb rise in the handicap. He will need to step forward and improve mentally for his latest run but he is clearly a nice horse in the making and I think he could prove a good deal better than his current mark of 85.
2.55 York – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)
The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Tha’ir has been pretty consistent over the last eighteen months and having tasted success at Meydan in the Spring, he made all to win a Listed contest at Sandown on his return to action at the beginning of July. There were only four runners that day but he dictated from the front and pulled clear in the style of a good horse on the run to the line. Kirklees came here on the back of victory in the same race to win in 2009 for connections and he looks likely to be in the shake-up. As long as there are no non-runners we have a field of eight and at around the 8/1 mark, he looks to hold solid each-way claims.
The only three-year-old in the line-up Castlelyons may be 25/1 but I wouldn’t be too quick to rule him out of contention despite having only run once. He looked like he had the potential to be a very good horse when winning an admittedly fairly average Cork maiden in April and he was subsequently sold to these connections for 170,000 guineas in May. His trainer is perhaps better known for his exploits over obstacles and it could be that is the plan with this gelding but he bounced off the summer ground on debut and he could be anything. He would obviously have to be very smart to win this on just his second start against some experienced performers but I think he can outrun his sizeable odds.
In terms of who will win the race, I think PRINCE GIBRALTAR has plenty going in his favour despite not having won since May last year. He was twice placed in Group 1 company last season and ran well to finish seventh in the Arc behind Treve. He showed very little on his return to action in May but took a big step forward when running Manatee close at the end of that month. He would probably prefer a bit of cut in the ground but he could just be the class horse in the line-up here.
3.15 Ascot – Gigaset International Stakes (HANDICAP)
The 7f International Handicap is always a competitive affair and this year’s renewal looks no different. The first thing to consider is that six of the last ten winners had finished in the first five places on their most recent outing, suggesting that horses in form often do well here. When applying that to this year’s field there are sixteen qualifiers including the likes of Speculative Bid, Heaven’s Guest and Donncha.
In terms of age, by far the most successful group are the four-year-olds who have accounted for seven of the last ten winners of the race. They have no less than eleven representatives this time around and look well placed to add further to that tally. On a more negative note, there has been no three-year-old winner in the last decade which is bad news for supporters of Burnt Sugar and Enlace with the same stat also applying to runners aged six or older in the line-up.
The draw at Ascot is always a hot point of contention as, quite simply, if your selection races down the ‘wrong side’, they have little chance of winning. Of course, working out which is the ‘wrong side’ is easier said than done and usually requires watching the first few races to try and get an idea. Writing this in advance, I am virtually blind but personal experience is suggesting to me that the stands rail will be the place to be tomorrow. When they redeveloped Ascot, they did a fine job on the drainage system on the straight course and to be fair to them it does seem to be a lot fairer. One thing is almost guaranteed a draw close to a rail is an advantage in any race and it is interesting that 7 of the last 10 winners had been drawn 5 stalls off either rail.
Horses carrying big weights in handicaps can often struggle and this race seems no exception as nine of the last ten winners carried 9st 4lb or less. Only five of the line-up for this year’s renewal sit outside this bracket with Zarwaan (9st 10lb), Balty Boys (9st 9lb), Field Of Dream (9st 6lb), Lincoln (9st 5lb) and Speculative Bid (9st 5lb) all hoping to defy this trend.
It is also worth noting that there are two notable trials for this race, the Royal Hunt Cup and the Bunbury Cup, with six of the last ten winners having taken part in at least one prior to running here. This splits the field just about in half with fourteen of the field having run in either race.
The final factor worthy of a mention is the betting and given the competitive nature of the race, it is little surprise that it has been something of a graveyard for favourites over the years. There has been no winning favourite in the last decade and with winners priced at 25/1, 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1 in recent years, this looks like a race in which it can pay to take a chance on one at a big price.
Shortlist
JALLOTA – 6/6
Lincoln – 5/6
Brazos – 5/6
Suzi’s Connoisseur – 5/6
Conclusion
JALLOTA tops ours shortlist having matched all six of our trends and comes here on the back of finishing fifth in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. Prior to that run, he got up close home to deny One Word More in a valuable handicap at York and another bold bid is expected here. He has been drawn on the stands side rail in stall 27 and just sneaks in on the right side of the weights at 9st 4lb. He is in good form at the moment and at around the 20/1 mark, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.
Also towards the head of the weights is Mick Channon’s Lincoln who with 9st 5lb on his back misses the weight trend by just 1lb. Other than that he looks likely to run well having finished second over course and distance in the Victoria Cup back in May and he was unfortunate to be drawn on the wrong side in the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal meeting. He was not disgraced in Group 3 company on his latest start and on his return to handicap company, he looks to have a strong profile.
Twelve months ago, Brazos was the only three-year-old in the line-up and could finish only eighteenth behind Heavy Metal but as we know the Classic generation tend to struggle in this race. He didn’t run in either the Bunbury Cup or the Royal Hunt Cup and was last seen on a racecourse in May when third of eight at Chester. He has previously won over course and distance and having had a break, he could just be a bit fresher than some of his rivals who have been on the go for a little while.
The final member of the shortlist is Suzi’s Connoisseur who has performed consistently well on his last three starts. The latest of those came in the Bunbury Cup where he finished sixth behind Rene Mathis but he wears a visor for the first time today in a bid to bring about further improvement. He is drawn on the opposite side of the track to the rest of the shortlist in one so it will be interesting to see how he fares against the far-side group. Having been sixth last time he just misses out on the full house and makes plenty of appeal at around the 16/1 mark.
