bets for saturday 18/7/2015
1.40 Newmarket – Betway Handicap
There doesn’t look to be a shortage of pace in this race with several horses who like to race prominently in the line-up. One of the likely pace-setters is Peter Charalambous’ Boonga Roogeta who has been in good form this season, winning twice since the beginning of April. She pulled very hard on her latest run where she got trapped wide early on but the lay-out of the July course should allow her to settle in front. She has form over further than a mile and it will be a case of her setting a pace and whether the others are good enough to go past her.
There are a couple of three-year-olds who look likely to be thereabouts at the business end of the race including Emirates Skycargo who was narrowly beaten over a mile on the Rowley Mile at the Guineas meeting. He was disappointing on his latest outing where he didn’t find a great deal off the bridle although it is worth bearing in mind that he had a lot of racing over the winter on the all-weather and that might have been one step too far for him. He has had a bit of a break and if he can return to his best, he looks sure to be thereabouts.
However, it may be best to side with Hugo Palmer’s STRONG STEPS who receives weight from all of his rivals on Saturday. He got collared close home at Kempton last time although the first two were a good three lengths ahead of the third. That was just his fifth start and from a wide draw, he may have just used up too much petrol early on getting a position. He has snuck in here at the bottom of the weights and with the yard in good form of late, he looks the one to be siding with.
2.00 Newbury – Al Basti Equiworld EBF Breeding Winners Fillies´ Handicap
Rekdhat carries top weight here and was last seen finishing fourth in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract eleven days ago. She was held up that day in a race which was dominated by those racing prominently and although she ran on well in the closing stages, she could only finish fourth. She was only beaten just over two lengths by the progressive Lightning Spear who was not disgraced in Group 2 company last weekend. She sets the standard and although her weight takes that into account, she still deserves plenty of respect.
Karl Burke’s Little Lady Katie was perhaps a little unfortunate to be disqualified last time when first past the post at Ayr. She made all on that occasion and although she ran around and lost the race, the performance still needs taking note of. With a 2lb rise and Silvestre De Sousa she is racing off a 7lb higher mark so will need to find further improvement but she continues to turn in solid displays and she looks a solid contender.
However, I was quite taken with the way that SEALIFE won on her belated debut at Windsor a couple of weeks ago and I think that a mark of 83 is workable for her. I felt Pat Cosgrave’s move to get out of a pocket was a little unnecessary but she quickened up smartly once in the clear and having shown plenty of signs of inexperience she should have benefitted from that run. It is still early days with her but she is unexposed and she could just prove a good deal better than her rivals.
2.15 Newmarket – Newsells Park Stud Stakes (Listed Race)
Those racing in the Godolphin blue look to hold a strong hand in this contest with recent Listed winner Dream Child certainly deserving of a place on the shortlist. Having been progressive on the all-weather through the winter she has twice finished second in Listed company on the turf behind Miss Marjurie at Goodwood and Mutatis Mutandis at Nottingham. She went to France at the end of last month where she won at Deauville beating a filly of Ed Walker’s by two lengths. She is clearly in good form at present and despite having a penalty, it would be no surprise to see her show up well again here.
However, I slightly prefer the claims of Saeed Bin Suroor’s DESERT SNOW who won her last two starts at the end of last season. Her latest win over two miles saw her canter clear of some smart rivals to win by three and three-quarter lengths and the drop back to 1m4f should be no problem for her. We obviously need to take her fitness on trust but if she can return in the form she was in at the end of last year, she could be the filly they all have to beat.
Perhaps the most interesting runner in the field is John Gosden’s Bright Approach who hasn’t been seen since beating only one home in the Ribblesdale twelve months ago. A winner on her debut at Newbury, she was third behind Anipa in the Cheshire Oaks before her trip to Royal Ascot. She is closely related to Nichols Canyon who the yard did well with and having saddled two recent winners of the race, it could be worth keeping an eye on how she gets on.
2.35 Newbury – JLT Stakes (Listed Race)
Brian Meehan’s Mustadeem has chased home smart rivals on his last two starts and the latest of those efforts saw him finish third behind Time Test and Peacock at Royal Ascot. He hasn’t won since getting off the mark in a Sandown maiden last July but he is clearly improving and it would be no surprise to see him go close again. He would need to take a big step forward on his recent efforts to win, but he is likely to play a major role in the outcome of the race.
Also owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum is Intilaaq who was supplemented for the 2000 Guineas following an eight length success in a Newbury maiden at the beginning of May. As it turned out that sort of assignment came a bit quickly for him and he struggled to land a blow. On breeding he should be suited by the step up 1m2f and Paul Hanagan has opted to ride him ahead of Mustadeem. This is just his fourth start and if he can resume his progress, he looks the one most likely to give the favourite something to think about.
The favourite in question is Sir Michael Stoute’s CONSORT who overcame a long absence to win the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown in May. He lost nothing in defeat when attempting to make all in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot but was overtaken in the closing stages and finished third. I don’t see the extra two furlongs causing him too many issues and he looks a potential top-class performer in the making. This looks a good opportunity for him to get back to winning ways before having another crack at Group company later in the year and although you aren’t going to get rich backing even money shots, I find it difficult to see him getting turned over.
3.10 Newbury – Al Basti Equiworld Hackwood Stakes (Group 3)
Ed Walker’s Aeolus bounced right back to form when getting up to land the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last time. That performance was right back up with there with his best form at both two and three and it will be interesting to see if he can back that up here. He joined the yard of Ed Walker over the winter, who continue to send out the winners and although he carries a penalty for his latest success, I think we can expect another positive showing from this talented four-year-old.
However, the three-year-olds receive 9lb from Ed Walker’s gelding and in a small field it may prove best to side with STRATH BURN who has some good form with the likes of Limato and Profitable to his name. He was dropped into maiden company to get off the mark last time and had no problem justifying odds of 1/10 at Doncaster. The Charlie Hills team could not be in better form at present at in a tight race, he could offer some value at around the 11/2 mark.
3.45 Newbury – Weatherbys Super Sprint (HANDICAP RACE)
With 25 runners set to go to post the Weatherbys sponsored Super Sprint can look a bit daunting but there are some decent trends surrounding it so we should be able to narrow it down to a respectable shortlist. To reduce the field we can discount maidens as only 1 winner in the race’s history had been a maiden. Therefore the nine maidens in this year’s field Phantom Flipper, Sunnua, Field Of Vision, Pacches, David’s Duchess, Back To Bond, Force Awakens, Jessie B Goode and Mermaid can all take an early bath.
An equally strong trend is that only Elhamri in 2006 and last year’s runaway winner Tiggy Wiggy have managed to carry 9st or more to victory in the races history. A stat which puts a major dent in the chances of both Phantom Flipper and Lathom.
When it comes to recent form, it is hardly surprising that the Royal Meeting has been a pretty big influence with 8 of the last 14 winners running at the meeting. Looking at this year’s field, only two went to Royal Ascot in search of glory, Soapy Aitken and Lathom who finished 4th and 19th respectively in the Windsor Castle Stakes.
Richard Hannon unsurprisingly had a great record in this race saddling six winners and that Hannon Jr saddled a seventh victory for the yard last year with Tiggy Wiggy. I’m sure the success will continue and he has no less than six runners this year courtesy of Phantom Flipper, Great Page, Receding Waves, Racquet, Belvoir Bay and Mermaid.
The draw can often have a major effect on races with fields of this size and it is interesting to note that eight of the last ten winners came from stall 13 or lower. Looking at this year’s renewal some of the big names to be drawn poorly include Soapy Aitken (16), Receding Waves (20) and Belvoir Bay (21).
The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and the fact that seven of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting suggests that this isn’t a race in which we should be looking for an outsider. At the time of writing, Excessable and Soapy Aitken are both vying for favouritism at around 7/2 with Great Page just behind them at 5/1.
Shortlist
GREAT PAGE – 5/6
Soapy Aitken – 4/6
Receding Waves – 4/6
Excessable – 4/6
Conclusion
Having taken all of the trends into account, the top pick is Richard Hannon’s GREAT PAGE who won two of her first three starts on the racecourse. Her only defeat saw him finish second to an unfancied stablemate but considering the filly in question was Illuminate who has since followed up in the Albany Stakes and the Duchess Of Cambridge we can probably forgive her that defeat. She missed Royal Ascot to head to the Curragh but things didn’t really drop right for her that day and this drop in class should benefit her. She is already a Listed winner and having slipped just under the 9st threshold, she looks a major player.
Clive Cox has made no secret of the regard in which he holds Soapy Aitken and despite being turned over in Listed company last time, I wouldn’t be too keen on writing him off just yet. He ran very well in the Windsor Castle despite being drawn away from the pace and this sort of race should play to his strengths. The only other trend he misses is regarding the draw having been allocated stall 16 and whilst that it is not ideal, he looks to have an otherwise strong profile.
Receding Waves looks to be one of those horses who saves a bit for himself having won by just a head on his last two starts. He got a little outpaced over five furlongs last time before coming home well in the closing stages so expect him to be doing all of his best work at the finish. He has also not been blessed with the draw and it is fair to say that stall 20 is much more of an inconvenience than what faces Soapy Aitken. Nevertheless, he is an improving member of the Richard Hannon battalion and it would not be the biggest shock to see him hit the frame.
The final member of the shortlist is Tim Easterby’s Excessable who made quite an impression when making a winning debut at Ripon in April. He was unable to peg back a determined winner on his second start at Beverley a couple of weeks ago but he looks to have strong claims in this race. Having been bought for just £6,000 as a yearling he carries just 8st 3lb and the only trends he misses are that he didn’t run at Royal Ascot and he isn’t trained by Richard Hannon. The yard won this in 2012 with Body And Soul and he warrants plenty of respect given his shrewd connections.
4.20 Newbury – Malone Roofing Handicap
A week ago I was quite keen on the chances of WINDFAST in the Bunbury Cup despite the length of time he has been off the track. He has clearly had plenty of problems having only had six starts to date but his close third in Listed company and fourth in the Jersey Stakes last term suggest he could be a bit better than handicap class. It will be hard for him to carry top weight in this race but he is lightly-raced and in a race in which many of his rivals are fairly exposed, I think it might be worth taking a chance on him.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Royal Seal has been knocking on the door of late, having been placed on her last three starts including at Haydock a couple of weeks ago. She has been raised on the back of that effort which should make life a little more difficult for her but it seems that connections are starting to get the hang of her and she is likely to be thereabouts once again.
The one who could give Windfast most to think about is Charlie Appleby’s Strong Chemistry who receives plenty of weight from his rival and is worth forgiving his latest run, where he didn’t seem to get home. He did seem to settle a little better last time and the drop back to seven furlongs should also be in his favour. I would imagine William Buick had the pick of the two Appleby runners and this lightly-raced colt shouldn’t be too far away.
5.50 Curragh – Darley Irish Oaks (Group 1)
Despite the absence of leading fancies Diamondsandrubies and Pleascach, the Irish Oaks still has a strong look to it with Curvy bidding to follow in the footsteps of last year’s winner Bracelet who completed the Ribblesdale/Irish Oaks double twelve months ago. She has improved steadily through the year and her victory over Giovanni Canaletto at the Curragh doesn’t seem as much of a shock as it did at the time. The front two pulled well clear of the rest of the field last time and given that we know she stays the trip, she looks to have plenty going in her favour.
However, I slightly prefer the claims of Aidan O’Brien’s WORDS who despite being off the track for nearly a year, returned to land the Munster Oaks last month. She beat some smart older fillies that day including Carla Bianca who franked the form with a Group 3 win of her own on Thursday. She still showed plenty of signs of inexperience last time, climbing when asked to quicken and carrying her head a little high but she knuckled down and picked up well in the closing stages to win with a bit in hand at the line. Her dam Moonstone won this race in 2008 and with surely more to come from her, I am happy to side with her at around the 7/2 mark.
Of the rest, I think Speedy Boarding could offer some each-way value in the race having taken another step forward when winning in Listed company last time. She finished her race off strongly that day suggesting that the extra couple of furlongs should not be a problem for her. She will obviously need to improve again here but her trainer is not one to tilt at windmills and if you prefer not to take a short price, then at around 16/1 she looks one of the better each-way bets in the race.
