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4.30 Epsom – Investec Derby (Group 1)
The best place to start is with the favourite Golden Horn and for me he looks likely to be the best horse in the race but that is not to say that he will win. His performance in the Dante was mightily impressive and one thing you do need in the Derby is a turn of foot which this colt certainly has. His owner previously expressed concerns about him seeing out the 1m4f trip and looking at his pedigree those concerns seem to be valid. One thing that time has told us is that horses need to stay to win the Derby and if he stays I think he will win but there is enough to doubt there to be taking him on at around 7/4.
His stablemate Jack Hobbs looks likely to stay and still showed enough greenness in the Dante to suggest that there is plenty more to come from him. Pieces of work shouldn’t be taken too much notice of as a rule but he was impressive at Breakfast With The Stars and looks as though he is rapidly improving. His draw in 10 should be fine and if he can improve on his Dante run, he should go close.
The only one I haven’t mentioned in the Dante was Elm Park and whilst I think he will stay, I just don’t think he is up to this sort of level. I think that there are holes in his juvenile form and the way he changed his legs at Breakfast with the Stars raises serious concerns about his ability to handle the track. He should step forward from his York run but I would be surprised if he was able to go close.
It is interesting that following the Dante, two of Aidan O’Brien’s prospective Derby runners were ruled out of contention and it is now felt that his three runners are outsiders. However, it is worth bearing in mind that all three of his horses are bred to stay and they may offer some each-way value in the race.
I have backed HANS HOLBEIN for the St Leger as he is a strong stayer and looked to need every yard of the trip when winning the Chester Vase. He has improved enormously since being fitted with cheekpieces and whilst I think he will be better over further, in a race in which there are doubts about a few of these getting home, I fancy him to hit the frame. He offers some solid each-way value at around 16/1 I think he looks worth a bet despite Moore appearing to favour his stablemate.
As I have mentioned Ryan Moore has sided with his stablemate Giovanni Canaletto who was due to take part in the Chester Vase but was ruled out because of a bad scope. He instead ran in the Gallinule Stakes a couple of weeks ago and was turned over and still looked very inexperienced on just his third start. The step up in trip should suit him and it is interesting that he has been fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, the same equipment that his brother Ruler Of The World wore to victory a couple of years ago. He should stay, is open to improvement and could also go close if he steps forward from his latest run.
5.15 Epsom – Investec Out Of The Ordinary Handicap
Amanda Perrett’s BLACK SHADOW ran on this day last year when he finished second to What About Carlo in the opening contest. That was just the fourth start of his career and he didn’t go on from that during the rest of the season. However on his reappearance three weeks ago he shaped much better but got a little tired in the closing stages to finish fourth. The winner has since come out and won a Listed race and that run should have put Perrett’s gelding spot on for this. He races here off 4lb lower than the mark he was second off last year and with the yard having won this twice in recent years, he looks well-placed to go well again here.
Another horse with course form is the Graham Mays-trained Barwick who was last seen finishing third over course and distance in April. On three visits to Epsom he has never finished outside of the first three and the way he was staying on last time suggests he may have got a little nearer had he been fitter on his return to action. He comes here on a career high mark but has already shown he can be effective around here and with the excellent Jim Crowley on board, he could offer some each-way value.
Andrew Balding’s Montaly should also be straighter for his seasonal reappearance where he failed to get involved in a conditions race at Chelmsford at the beginning of May. The race has already thrown up one winner in the shape of Lycidas and the runner-up has also run well since then. He took a keen hold last time which sees connections reach for the hood in a bid to settle him down and there is definitely more to come from this four-year-old. He is likely to get a truer run race than he did last time and looks to have solid each-way claims.
5.50 Epsom – Investec Asset Management Stakes (Handicap)
Brian Ellison’s Polski Max was having just his third start for this yard when finishing fifth at Ripon on Wednesday evening. At the peak of his powers a couple of years ago he was a winner off a mark of 97 but made a winning start for this yard in October. There should be plenty more to come from a mark of 83 and drawn pretty well in eight, he should be thereabouts once again.
Another runner who has recently changed yards is PEARL BLUE who was claimed out of the Jamie Osborne yard in May and has his second start for David O’Meara on Saturday. He was ridden tentatively on his last start, making late ground to take fourth at Chester and he should be cherry ripe for this assignment. He won a Newmarket handicap off 1lb higher last season and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, he looks primed to give a big showing for a trainer who has made his name with such horses.
The final one of most interest could be last year’s winner Ashpan Sam who returns in search of a second win in the race off a 3lb lower mark. The concern would be that he hasn’t shown much form since then and that he would need to be right back to his best to go close again here. This is likely to have been the plan for a while and having had a pipeopener at Goodwood the other week, he should be fit enough to do himself justice.
The best place to start is with the favourite Golden Horn and for me he looks likely to be the best horse in the race but that is not to say that he will win. His performance in the Dante was mightily impressive and one thing you do need in the Derby is a turn of foot which this colt certainly has. His owner previously expressed concerns about him seeing out the 1m4f trip and looking at his pedigree those concerns seem to be valid. One thing that time has told us is that horses need to stay to win the Derby and if he stays I think he will win but there is enough to doubt there to be taking him on at around 7/4.
His stablemate Jack Hobbs looks likely to stay and still showed enough greenness in the Dante to suggest that there is plenty more to come from him. Pieces of work shouldn’t be taken too much notice of as a rule but he was impressive at Breakfast With The Stars and looks as though he is rapidly improving. His draw in 10 should be fine and if he can improve on his Dante run, he should go close.
The only one I haven’t mentioned in the Dante was Elm Park and whilst I think he will stay, I just don’t think he is up to this sort of level. I think that there are holes in his juvenile form and the way he changed his legs at Breakfast with the Stars raises serious concerns about his ability to handle the track. He should step forward from his York run but I would be surprised if he was able to go close.
It is interesting that following the Dante, two of Aidan O’Brien’s prospective Derby runners were ruled out of contention and it is now felt that his three runners are outsiders. However, it is worth bearing in mind that all three of his horses are bred to stay and they may offer some each-way value in the race.
I have backed HANS HOLBEIN for the St Leger as he is a strong stayer and looked to need every yard of the trip when winning the Chester Vase. He has improved enormously since being fitted with cheekpieces and whilst I think he will be better over further, in a race in which there are doubts about a few of these getting home, I fancy him to hit the frame. He offers some solid each-way value at around 16/1 I think he looks worth a bet despite Moore appearing to favour his stablemate.
As I have mentioned Ryan Moore has sided with his stablemate Giovanni Canaletto who was due to take part in the Chester Vase but was ruled out because of a bad scope. He instead ran in the Gallinule Stakes a couple of weeks ago and was turned over and still looked very inexperienced on just his third start. The step up in trip should suit him and it is interesting that he has been fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, the same equipment that his brother Ruler Of The World wore to victory a couple of years ago. He should stay, is open to improvement and could also go close if he steps forward from his latest run.
5.15 Epsom – Investec Out Of The Ordinary Handicap
Amanda Perrett’s BLACK SHADOW ran on this day last year when he finished second to What About Carlo in the opening contest. That was just the fourth start of his career and he didn’t go on from that during the rest of the season. However on his reappearance three weeks ago he shaped much better but got a little tired in the closing stages to finish fourth. The winner has since come out and won a Listed race and that run should have put Perrett’s gelding spot on for this. He races here off 4lb lower than the mark he was second off last year and with the yard having won this twice in recent years, he looks well-placed to go well again here.
Another horse with course form is the Graham Mays-trained Barwick who was last seen finishing third over course and distance in April. On three visits to Epsom he has never finished outside of the first three and the way he was staying on last time suggests he may have got a little nearer had he been fitter on his return to action. He comes here on a career high mark but has already shown he can be effective around here and with the excellent Jim Crowley on board, he could offer some each-way value.
Andrew Balding’s Montaly should also be straighter for his seasonal reappearance where he failed to get involved in a conditions race at Chelmsford at the beginning of May. The race has already thrown up one winner in the shape of Lycidas and the runner-up has also run well since then. He took a keen hold last time which sees connections reach for the hood in a bid to settle him down and there is definitely more to come from this four-year-old. He is likely to get a truer run race than he did last time and looks to have solid each-way claims.
5.50 Epsom – Investec Asset Management Stakes (Handicap)
Brian Ellison’s Polski Max was having just his third start for this yard when finishing fifth at Ripon on Wednesday evening. At the peak of his powers a couple of years ago he was a winner off a mark of 97 but made a winning start for this yard in October. There should be plenty more to come from a mark of 83 and drawn pretty well in eight, he should be thereabouts once again.
Another runner who has recently changed yards is PEARL BLUE who was claimed out of the Jamie Osborne yard in May and has his second start for David O’Meara on Saturday. He was ridden tentatively on his last start, making late ground to take fourth at Chester and he should be cherry ripe for this assignment. He won a Newmarket handicap off 1lb higher last season and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, he looks primed to give a big showing for a trainer who has made his name with such horses.
The final one of most interest could be last year’s winner Ashpan Sam who returns in search of a second win in the race off a 3lb lower mark. The concern would be that he hasn’t shown much form since then and that he would need to be right back to his best to go close again here. This is likely to have been the plan for a while and having had a pipeopener at Goodwood the other week, he should be fit enough to do himself justice.
