• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2015 Grand National

MrMcGoldrick said:
Mon Parrain has to be considered with Sean Bowen up, can't do much wrong that lad at the mo
Click to expand...

Amazing when jockeys get in a streak how these races just keep going their way.
 
I'm strong on Alvarado, nicked some 25s a couple of weeks ago and likely to go off shorter.
Alwasy back a few rags at cricket score prices, managed to get The Rainbow Hunter, Super Duty, Wyck Hill and Rebel Rebelion all at 90s or bigger last night
 
Paul Kealys tips


I have backed Spring Heeled ante-post and should have backed Shutthefrontdoor when he was 20-1, but having sifted through my accounts can't find any bets.
If taking a fresh look now my top four at the odds would be: 1 Al Co, 2 Royale Knight, 3 Rocky Creek, 4 Soll.
by Paul Kealy 7:14 PM ↑0
 
Royale Knight will shorten more imo.
 
Here is my latest field:

<style type="text/css"><!-- body,div,table,thead,tbody,tfoot,tr,th,td,p { font-family:"Liberation Sans"; font-size:x-small } --> </style>
NoFORMHORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR
1 1-373P Lord Windermere29 9 11-10 J H Culloty Robbie McNamara 161
2 4-1116 Many Clouds29 8 11-9 Oliver Sherwood71 Leighton Aspell 160
3 38-613 Unioniste63 7 11-6 Paul Nicholls53 Noel Fehily 157
4 25-2P1 Rocky Creek49 9 11-3 Paul Nicholls53 Sam Twiston-Davies 154
5 24683 First Lieutenant23 10 11-3 M F Morris20 Ms N Carberry 154
6 12-F11 Balthazar King148 11 11-2 Philip Hobbs59 Richard Johnson 153
7 2461-1 Shutthefrontdoor152 8 11-2 Jonjo O´Neill40 A P McCoy 153
8 1-0P80 Pineau De Re30 12 11-0 Dr Richard Newland50 Daryl Jacob 151
9 2173P Ballycasey30 8 10-13 W P Mullins69 Ruby Walsh150
10 015-44 Spring Heeled49 8 10-12 J H Culloty Nick Scholfield 149
11 454121 Rebel Rebellion21 10 10-12 Paul Nicholls53 Ryan Mahon 149
12 028180 Dolatulo30 8 10-11 Warren Greatrex20 Dougie Costello 148
13 1-P015 Mon Parrain42 9 10-11 Paul Nicholls53 Sean Bowen 148
14 32213 Carlito Brigante42 9 10-10 Karen McLintock Brian Harding 147
15 40233 Night In Milan42 9 10-9 Keith Reveley James Reveley 146
16 545211 Rubi Light25 10 10-9 Robert Alan Hennessy A E Lynch 146
17 12751 The Druids Nephew32 8 10-9 Neil Mulholland75 Aidan Coleman 146
18 20-751 Cause Of Causes32 7 10-9 Gordon Elliott18 Paul Carberry 146
19 23-P50 Godsmejudge21 9 10-8 Alan King42 Wayne Hutchinson 145
20 1-0P33 Al Co21 10 10-8 Peter Bowen60 145
21 24430 Monbeg Dude32 10 10-7 Michael Scudamore Liam Treadwell 144
22 10-33P Corrin Wood84 8 10-7 Donald McCain44 144
23 261U-P The Rainbow Hunter49 11 10-7 Kim Bailey44 David Bass 144
24 F-3331 Saint Are61 9 10-6 Tom George33 Paddy Brennan 143
25 0-800B Across The Bay30 11 10-6 Donald McCain44 Henry Brooke 143
26 31P0-5 Tranquil Sea42 13 10-5 Warren Greatrex20 Gavin Sheehan 142
27 111U14 Oscar Time52 14 10-5 Robert Waley-Cohen Mr S Waley-Cohen 142
28 120P1P Bob Ford28 8 10-4 Rebecca Curtis 141
29 P2-67 Super Duty42 9 10-4 Ian Williams33 141
30 P16-2F Wyck Hill49 11 10-4 David Bridgwater50 141
31 P11P4 Gas Line Boy56 9 10-4 Philip Hobbs59 James Best 141
32 P46-55 Chance Du Roy62 11 10-4 Philip Hobbs59 Tom O'Brien 141
33 8P1292 Portrait King25 10 10-3 M Phelan Davy Condon 140
34 3-8256 Owega Star34 8 10-3 Peter Fahey Robbie Power 140
35 U58P14 River Choice49 12 10-3 R Chotard David Cottin140
36 265-11 Court By Surprise154 10 10-3 Emma Lavelle25 Richie McLernon 140
37 51P4-5 Alvarado52 10 10-3 Fergal O´Brien67 Paul Moloney140
38 50-P11 Soll42 10 10-2 David Pipe73 Tom Scudamore 139
39 0115-P Ely Brown70 10 10-2 Charlie Longsdon40 139
40 3-4132 Royale Knight23 9 10-2 Dr Richard Newland50 Will Kennedy 139
41 113625 Baileys Concerto42 9 10-2 Dianne Sayer25 Brian Hughes139
42 5F57U8 Duke Of Lucca31 10 10-2 Philip Hobbs59 139
43 38-842 Raz De Maree28 10 10-1 Ms Sandra Hughes80 138
44 30-6P1 The Package30 12 10-0 David Pipe73 137
45 3515F2 Broadway Buffalo32 7 10-0 David Pipe73 Katie Walsh137
46 5-4323 Maggio54 10 10-0 Patrick Griffin 137
47 P-114F Guess Again30 10 10-0 A J Martin63 137
48 2U731 Goonyella28 8 9-13 J T R Dreaper75 J J Burke 136
49 12243 Gallant Oscar32 9 9-13 A J Martin63 136
50 2383P Vintage Star30 9 9-13 Sue Smith22 136

<colgroup width="28"></colgroup> <colgroup width="60"></colgroup> <colgroup width="115"></colgroup> <colgroup width="37"></colgroup> <colgroup width="42"></colgroup> <colgroup width="146"></colgroup> <colgroup width="143"></colgroup> <colgroup width="41"></colgroup> <tbody>
</tbody>
 
Whats the chances of Broadway Buffalo sneaking in?

He looks a huge price compared to Cause Of Causes "if" he gets in.
 
loveracing said:
Whats the chances of Broadway Buffalo sneaking in?

He looks a huge price compared to Cause Of Causes "if" he gets in.
Click to expand...

Probably just misses out imo. Not sure the list is accurate - the 10-0 all need to be ballotted or reassessed by Phil Smith ?

Bob Forde and Wyck Hill are two I havent heard much about but think everything else runs. Paul Townend to ride Rebeccas horse ? Denis O'regan and Dougie Costello to fill in another couple of the blanks ? I am still not sure that Ballycasey will actually run but do remememver Ruby saying on morning line on day of Ascot Chase that he could !

Presume katie walsh might be in running for Raz De Maree ride if make the cut ?
 
Last edited:
jonny burke on Raz

Hughes said: "I'm just hoping we get in at the moment and if he does, I wouldn't want the ground to be too good as h e's a soft-ground horse."

She added: "If he does run I've provisionally booked Johnny Burke to ride him, assuming the horse that beat him at Uttoxeter, Goonyella, doesn't get a run.

"He is below us in the list."
 
Final elimination order 10-2s not all in yet
40) ROYALE KNIGHT 9
 10-02 Chris Stedman & Robert Corsan Dr Richard Newland/Will Kennedy

41) BAILEYS CONCERTO (IRE) 9
 10-02 United Five Racing & Andrew Sayer Dianne Sayer/Brian Hughes
42) DUKE OF LUCCA (IRE) 10
 10-02 Lesley Field Philip Hobbs/Micheal Nolan
43) RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 10
 10-01 James Swan Sandra Hughes IRE
44) THE PACKAGE 12
 10-00 The Johnson Family David Pipe
45) BROADWAY BUFFALO (IRE) 7
 10-00 Jo Tracey David Pipe
46) MAGGIO (FR) 10
 10-00 Douglas Pryde & Jim Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE
47) GUESS AGAIN (IRE) 10
 10-00 Malcolm Denmark Tony Martin IRE

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
I think Royale Knight can run a big race and Baileys Concerto will love the ground if he gets in.
 
mayo said:
Ruby



:devilish: must be backed then
Click to expand...

Other reasons to back include the sire :encouragement:


On the other hand and stating the bleeding obvious Jims form is not even patchy.
 
Jockey update

Paul Townend on Bob Ford if Oscar doesn't get in

Will Kennedy on Suoer Duty

David Casey on Corrin Wood

Brendan Powell on Royale Knight

ORegan on Al co
 
Donn keen on the Carberrys

Cause Of Causes is the shortest-priced Irish-trained horse at present, and he is a player. Okay, so we know the stat about seven-year-olds, that no seven-year-old has won it since we weren’t sure who was going to win the War, but JP McManus’ horse is an unusual seven-year-old in that he has run 27 times in National Hunt races, 16 times over hurdles, 11 times over fences.

He had the class to win a Ladbroke Hurdle and to finish second in a Galway Hurdle and a Paddy Power Chase and a Kim Muir Chase, and he proved his stamina when he landed the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham four weeks ago. Also, he is trained by Gordon Elliott, who sent out Silver Birch to win the National in 2007 before he had trained a winner in Ireland. (He has trained a few now.)

So AP McCoy has passed Cause Of Causes over, but you always felt that the champ was going to ride Shutthefrontdoor in his National finale if Shutthefrontdoor was okay, and Elliott has secured the services of Paul Carberry (Tommy’s son, remember?), who is also a massive asset around Aintree. The Dynaformer gelding gets to race off a mark of 146, which is 6lb lower than his peak over hurdles, and that gives him a real chance.

First Lieutenant also has a real chance. He has plenty of weight, 11st 3lb is a little more than you would ideally want, but he is a top-class staying chaser who, despite his relatively high weight, is still a potentially well-handicapped horse for the National.

Third in a Hennessy Gold Cup and second in a Ryanair Chase and in two Lexus Chases, the Mouse Morris-trained gelding proved his liking for Aintree and for this time of year when he landed the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at the 2013 Grand National meeting, staying on well to get the better of Menorah, with subsequent dual King George winner Silviniaco Conti back in third.

The Gigginstown House horse has not won since then, but he has run some fine races in defeat, including when he finished second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus Chase last season, and when he finished second behind Boston Bob in the Punchestown Gold Cup last April.

He has been well beaten in his three chases this season, but he ran well for a long way over hurdles at Thurles last time when he had to make his own running, and he stuck on well after he had been passed. That run should have put him spot on for Saturday.

He has been trained all season for the National by Morris, a man who knows how to prepare one for a big day, and he will get to race off a handicap rating of 154, which is 16lb lower than his peak. As a 10-year-old he is the right age for the race, he will love the good ground, he will have the excellent Nina Carberry (Tommy’s daughter, Paul’s sister) for company, and he shapes like the extreme distance will suit. He is in reportedly in fine form, this is his time of year, and looks over-priced at 33/1.
 
The least amount of chases previously contested by a Grand National winner in the past 26 years is ten, when Numbersixvalverde was successful in 2006.
Grand National favourite Shutthefrontdoor looks too inexperienced having raced just six times over fences, alhtough he has never fallen or unseated his rider and proved he could handle such a race when he won last season's Irish National. Numbersixvalverde was also the last Grand National winner to have never fallen or unseated his rider.
Stamina.
Every winner of the Grand National during the past 40 years had won over at least three miles. The entry criteria was changed in the autumn of 2012 whereby to qualify for the Grand National a horse had to have been placed in a chase over three miles or more.
Watch Graham Cunningham's video analysis of the newcomers set to take their chance at Aintree:

Previous Grand Nationals:
Only Amberleigh House has won the Grand National having finished in the first four in the previous season’s Grand National in the past for 31 years from 70 horses to try. There were 17 defending champions, and 52 horses placed second, third, or fourth who tried, with Teaforthree, unseating last year, the latest. Balthazar King, who was second last season, and Alvarado, who was fourth, bid to snap that sequence.
Eight of the last 14 winners had contested at least one race over the Grand National fences previously, with Pineau De Re falling in the 2013 Becher Chase.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom