this race is usually won by a horse who skipped cheltenham would be suprised if vautour showed up what about vroumvroummag won easy last time the tullow tank could run hyped up last year hes won a grade 1 over hurdles here and won his debut over fences herewhat do yous think
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grade 1 ryanair gold cup
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MrMcGoldrick
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Could well run in this, I reckon VVM could be the Ricci runner in next years Cheltenham Ryanair, that would leave them free to sweep up with Vautour in the QM, Annie in the World hurdle, Faugheen in the champ, and Djakadam in the Gold cup, Oh to be Rich Ricci, throw in Douvan for the Arkle, and fill in the blanks with a Ricci Supreme/Neptune/Albert Bartlett/JLT.
I thought the two mares would be Mullins runners. I have a sneaking feeling vautour will go for the 3 mile novice at Aintree.
The problem with Vautour for QMCC theory is that Ruby has UDS and Ricci likes Ruby on his horses.
The problem with Vautour for QMCC theory is that Ruby has UDS and Ricci likes Ruby on his horses.
MrMcGoldrick
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Looking at the likely runners for this they all seem to have something to prove except Gitane Du Berlais, I might give it a watching brief because there are several that could take it with a return to form, Tullow Tank being the one I would probably risk each way if I was to have a bet, but would only be small stakes. If Vautour turns up they have to be running for places.
Old Vic
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PP not quoting Vautour now.
Id be in the Gitane camp - this was always the plan along with a trip to france as far as I can see.
Old Vic
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Odds Table
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Old Vic
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Previous Winners
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Old Vic
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Ryanair Gold Cup thread
<a href="http://t.co/1OvRxlyYRY">http://t.co/1OvRxlyYRY</a>
Vautour for Aintree ? <a href="http://t.co/aNuTVanpvq">pic.twitter.com/aNuTVanpvq</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/583955632312733697">April 3, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<a href="http://t.co/1OvRxlyYRY">http://t.co/1OvRxlyYRY</a>
Vautour for Aintree ? <a href="http://t.co/aNuTVanpvq">pic.twitter.com/aNuTVanpvq</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/583955632312733697">April 3, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Ruby
With Bryan Cooper suspended I could have ridden Valseur Lido in the Ryanair Gold Cup (4.20) tomorrow but opted for Gitane Du Berlais.
She beat Irish Saint in Sandown with no five-year-old allowance.
She gets that allowance here and, with the mare’s allowance as well, is getting 15lbs off Valseur Lido. Irish Saint was just behind Valseur Lido in the JLT.
She was very good in France when Jacques Ricou rode her. She only had 9-10 on her back but bolted in in a decent hurdle race. It’s a toss of a coin but I think with the weight she’s getting, she could be hard to beat.
It’s a very good race with Gilgamboa, Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido. Without Don Poli, Vautour and Un De Sceaux, these are the best novices around in Ireland or England.
I rode Valseur Lido in work Thursday. He worked well but the massive weight allowance and likely testing ground is what swung me towards Gitane.
With Bryan Cooper suspended I could have ridden Valseur Lido in the Ryanair Gold Cup (4.20) tomorrow but opted for Gitane Du Berlais.
She beat Irish Saint in Sandown with no five-year-old allowance.
She gets that allowance here and, with the mare’s allowance as well, is getting 15lbs off Valseur Lido. Irish Saint was just behind Valseur Lido in the JLT.
She was very good in France when Jacques Ricou rode her. She only had 9-10 on her back but bolted in in a decent hurdle race. It’s a toss of a coin but I think with the weight she’s getting, she could be hard to beat.
It’s a very good race with Gilgamboa, Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido. Without Don Poli, Vautour and Un De Sceaux, these are the best novices around in Ireland or England.
I rode Valseur Lido in work Thursday. He worked well but the massive weight allowance and likely testing ground is what swung me towards Gitane.
another one for the mare
Richard Forristal
Vautour skips tomorrow's Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse where in his absence Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido get the opportunity to complement his stunning Cheltenham triumph.
They were the two horses that got closest to the early favourite for the 2016 Gold Cup last month and this will be the fourth time that they have clashed over fences.
On the first occasion, Valseur Lido slammed Apache Stronghold over tomorrow's two-and-a-half-mile course and distance to announce his arrival as a chaser of enormous potential in the Drinmore.
In Apache Stronghold's defence that day, he never looked happy at the head of affairs and more patient tactics have since enabled Noel Meade's seven-year-old to turn the tables on his conqueror.
He came from behind courtesy of a Paul Carberry masterclass to deny the Willie Mullins-trained Gigginstown Stud charge in the old DR PJ Moriarty Chase and he again made him look one-paced when shading second to the exceptional winner in the JLT.
There will doubtless be little between the two again and the forecasted deep ground may suit the Paul Townend-ridden Valseur Lido by bringing his stamina into play.
However, this nine-runner €100,000 contest is not just about two horses.
It is a cracking affair, with Enda Bolger's AP McCoy-ridden Gilgamboa of real interest as he encounters a suitably sufficient test for a first time since impressing so much at Limerick over Christmas.
Tony Martin's Noble Emperor is another exciting JP McManus-owned prospect, while Mullins will also saddle Gitane Du Berlais in his quest to secure an elusive breakthrough win in the race.
Ruby Walsh's mount landed the Grade One mares' novices' hurdle on this card in 2014 and she has been irrepressible in both of her starts over fences.
A bona fide mudlark, the five-year-old daughter of Balko hosed up on her chasing bow at Limerick, before trouncing the opposition in a weak edition of the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown in January.
EASIER
She couldn't possibly have won the Grade One any easier than she did and it is worth noting that Irish Saint, which got within a few lengths of the placed duo in the JLT, was all of eight lengths behind her at the Esher venue.
Needless to say, the allowances that Gitane Du Berlais received helped her cause, as they did when she made short work of Grade Three opposition on a switch back to hurdles at Auteuil last month.
Tomorrow, Gitane Du Berlais receives 15lbs from the field.
It is the toughest test she has faced so far, but it is quite possible that she is simply too good a horse not to exploit the opportunity under her peerless rider.
Richard Forristal
Vautour skips tomorrow's Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse where in his absence Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido get the opportunity to complement his stunning Cheltenham triumph.
They were the two horses that got closest to the early favourite for the 2016 Gold Cup last month and this will be the fourth time that they have clashed over fences.
On the first occasion, Valseur Lido slammed Apache Stronghold over tomorrow's two-and-a-half-mile course and distance to announce his arrival as a chaser of enormous potential in the Drinmore.
In Apache Stronghold's defence that day, he never looked happy at the head of affairs and more patient tactics have since enabled Noel Meade's seven-year-old to turn the tables on his conqueror.
He came from behind courtesy of a Paul Carberry masterclass to deny the Willie Mullins-trained Gigginstown Stud charge in the old DR PJ Moriarty Chase and he again made him look one-paced when shading second to the exceptional winner in the JLT.
There will doubtless be little between the two again and the forecasted deep ground may suit the Paul Townend-ridden Valseur Lido by bringing his stamina into play.
However, this nine-runner €100,000 contest is not just about two horses.
It is a cracking affair, with Enda Bolger's AP McCoy-ridden Gilgamboa of real interest as he encounters a suitably sufficient test for a first time since impressing so much at Limerick over Christmas.
Tony Martin's Noble Emperor is another exciting JP McManus-owned prospect, while Mullins will also saddle Gitane Du Berlais in his quest to secure an elusive breakthrough win in the race.
Ruby Walsh's mount landed the Grade One mares' novices' hurdle on this card in 2014 and she has been irrepressible in both of her starts over fences.
A bona fide mudlark, the five-year-old daughter of Balko hosed up on her chasing bow at Limerick, before trouncing the opposition in a weak edition of the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown in January.
EASIER
She couldn't possibly have won the Grade One any easier than she did and it is worth noting that Irish Saint, which got within a few lengths of the placed duo in the JLT, was all of eight lengths behind her at the Esher venue.
Needless to say, the allowances that Gitane Du Berlais received helped her cause, as they did when she made short work of Grade Three opposition on a switch back to hurdles at Auteuil last month.
Tomorrow, Gitane Du Berlais receives 15lbs from the field.
It is the toughest test she has faced so far, but it is quite possible that she is simply too good a horse not to exploit the opportunity under her peerless rider.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-13
7yo: 3-9-34
8yo: 3-1-17
9yo: 2-0-13
11yo: 1-0-1
No very strong age trends though 7 & 8 year olds have won 7 of last 10, including the last 5, though they have represented 65% of the total runners in past 10 years.
Gender
Like A Butterfly, who won this in 2005, has been the only female runner in past 10 years. She was also anomalous by virtue of being aged 11, only winner aged over 9 in past 30 years.
Breeding
Irish bred: 9-8-56
French bred: 1-2-12
British bred: 0-2-7
USA bred: 0-1-1
German bred: 0-0-2
9 of last 10 winners have been Irish bred, though they have represented almost 71.8% of the total runners. French-bred Rebel Fitz broke the sequence of Irish bred winners, though benefitted from Ballycasey’s fall 2 out, who was leading at the time.
The two USA bred horses to run in this since 2000 gained a win and a place.
Progeny of Beneficial: 6141 (2-0-4)
Progeny of Old Vic: 721 (1-1-3)
Progeny of Flemensfirth: P1 (1-0-2)
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out (exception finished 5th in the RSA Chase)
10 of 10 winners won on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138+ last time (last 4 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time)
9 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception yet to run over further than 2M 2F)
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on chase debut (2 exceptions fell)
7 of 10 posted an RPR of 129+ on first chase start
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (1 exception was 3rd in a Grade B Handicap Hurdle worth 51K+ & other was a 14 length winner on only completed hurdles start)
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 127+ over hurdles (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 4 in a grade 2 hurdle but had no hurdles rating)
7 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (3 exceptions had won just once over fences)
9 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 13K+ (exception had yet to run in a race worth 13K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a pt to pt, bumper or hurdles race
Other races
Highest placed finisher from Irish Arkle: UF27115U (2-1-8)
Crystalski.ie EBF Beginners Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 33P1 (1-2-4)
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): F241 (1-1-4)
Follow Navan On Facebook Beginners Chase winner (Azorian): 1 (1-0-1)
Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 13 (1-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Vautour): 1F (1-0-2)
Previous year's Rathbarry And Glenview Studs Novices Hurdle winner (Valseur Lido): 1P (1-0-2)
Previous year's Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 2 (0-1-1)
Flogas Novice Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 73F (0-1-3)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 344 (0-1-3)
Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): P274 (0-1-4)
Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 6P52U (0-1-5)
Kiliney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 8F (0-0-2)
Fairyhouse Supporting Ratoath Beginners Chase winner (Noble Emperor): P2 (0-0-2)
Drogheda Beginners Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 45F (0-0-3)
Ballymore November Festival Beginners Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): P86 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Arkle Novice Chase, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing PU1
2 of 10 winners ran in Like A Butterfly Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won a novice chase at Killarney the previous July over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) gained their first chase win at Navan
3 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle over 2M to 2M 4F at previous year’s National meeting
Cheltenham Festival
Record of horses that ran at Cheltenham: 31FF64357PF432164FU (2-3-19)
Since Like A Butterfly won this in 2005, after finishing 5th in the RSA, a total of 17 horses have come from Cheltenham to run in this, with only 1 winning and 2 others placing. The winner and 1 of the 2 places came in 2011, when there was 40 gap between start of Cheltenham and this race. Also in that race 5 of the 7 runners had raced at Cheltenham, the other 2 runners were sent off 40/1 & 25/1.
Trainers
Noel Meade (2-1-6) has won the race 3 times since 2003 from just 7 representatives.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-3) won this race in 2013.
Willie Mullins (0-3-16) has gained just 3 places from his 19 runners since 2000 and several of those were well fancied (3 were sent off favourite). He has yet to train the winner of this.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up three times in past 10 years.
Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Tony Martin (0-1-2) have all saddled the runner-up in past 4 years.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter, though there have been some upsets recently with Jadanli at 25/1 in 2010 and Realt Mor at 10/1 in 2013.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.40.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred (progeny of Beneficial & Old Vic do well)
- Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days
- Posted an RPR of 138+ last time
- Finished in first 2 on their chasing debut
- Won one or both of their last 2 completed chase starts
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)
- Won a NH race worth 19K+
- Finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (rated 129+ over hurdles)
- Had first ever run in a bumper, point to point or hurdles race
- Gained first chase success at Navan
- Ran in the Racing Post and/or Drinmore Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle, Craddockstown and/or Like A Butterfly Novice Chase
- Avoid horses that ran at Cheltenham
- Trained by Noel Meade
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-13
7yo: 3-9-34
8yo: 3-1-17
9yo: 2-0-13
11yo: 1-0-1
No very strong age trends though 7 & 8 year olds have won 7 of last 10, including the last 5, though they have represented 65% of the total runners in past 10 years.
Gender
Like A Butterfly, who won this in 2005, has been the only female runner in past 10 years. She was also anomalous by virtue of being aged 11, only winner aged over 9 in past 30 years.
Breeding
Irish bred: 9-8-56
French bred: 1-2-12
British bred: 0-2-7
USA bred: 0-1-1
German bred: 0-0-2
9 of last 10 winners have been Irish bred, though they have represented almost 71.8% of the total runners. French-bred Rebel Fitz broke the sequence of Irish bred winners, though benefitted from Ballycasey’s fall 2 out, who was leading at the time.
The two USA bred horses to run in this since 2000 gained a win and a place.
Progeny of Beneficial: 6141 (2-0-4)
Progeny of Old Vic: 721 (1-1-3)
Progeny of Flemensfirth: P1 (1-0-2)
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 3 last time out (exception finished 5th in the RSA Chase)
10 of 10 winners won on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138+ last time (last 4 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time)
9 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception yet to run over further than 2M 2F)
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on chase debut (2 exceptions fell)
7 of 10 posted an RPR of 129+ on first chase start
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (1 exception was 3rd in a Grade B Handicap Hurdle worth 51K+ & other was a 14 length winner on only completed hurdles start)
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 127+ over hurdles (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 4 in a grade 2 hurdle but had no hurdles rating)
7 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (3 exceptions had won just once over fences)
9 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 13K+ (exception had yet to run in a race worth 13K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a pt to pt, bumper or hurdles race
Other races
Highest placed finisher from Irish Arkle: UF27115U (2-1-8)
Crystalski.ie EBF Beginners Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 33P1 (1-2-4)
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): F241 (1-1-4)
Follow Navan On Facebook Beginners Chase winner (Azorian): 1 (1-0-1)
Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Gilgamboa): 13 (1-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Vautour): 1F (1-0-2)
Previous year's Rathbarry And Glenview Studs Novices Hurdle winner (Valseur Lido): 1P (1-0-2)
Previous year's Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 2 (0-1-1)
Flogas Novice Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 73F (0-1-3)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 344 (0-1-3)
Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): P274 (0-1-4)
Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 6P52U (0-1-5)
Kiliney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 8F (0-0-2)
Fairyhouse Supporting Ratoath Beginners Chase winner (Noble Emperor): P2 (0-0-2)
Drogheda Beginners Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 45F (0-0-3)
Ballymore November Festival Beginners Chase winner (Shanahan's Turn): P86 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Arkle Novice Chase, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing PU1
2 of 10 winners ran in Like A Butterfly Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won a novice chase at Killarney the previous July over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) gained their first chase win at Navan
3 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle over 2M to 2M 4F at previous year’s National meeting
Cheltenham Festival
Record of horses that ran at Cheltenham: 31FF64357PF432164FU (2-3-19)
Since Like A Butterfly won this in 2005, after finishing 5th in the RSA, a total of 17 horses have come from Cheltenham to run in this, with only 1 winning and 2 others placing. The winner and 1 of the 2 places came in 2011, when there was 40 gap between start of Cheltenham and this race. Also in that race 5 of the 7 runners had raced at Cheltenham, the other 2 runners were sent off 40/1 & 25/1.
Trainers
Noel Meade (2-1-6) has won the race 3 times since 2003 from just 7 representatives.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-3) won this race in 2013.
Willie Mullins (0-3-16) has gained just 3 places from his 19 runners since 2000 and several of those were well fancied (3 were sent off favourite). He has yet to train the winner of this.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up three times in past 10 years.
Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Tony Martin (0-1-2) have all saddled the runner-up in past 4 years.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter, though there have been some upsets recently with Jadanli at 25/1 in 2010 and Realt Mor at 10/1 in 2013.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.40.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred (progeny of Beneficial & Old Vic do well)
- Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days
- Posted an RPR of 138+ last time
- Finished in first 2 on their chasing debut
- Won one or both of their last 2 completed chase starts
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)
- Won a NH race worth 19K+
- Finished in first 4 in a graded hurdle (rated 129+ over hurdles)
- Had first ever run in a bumper, point to point or hurdles race
- Gained first chase success at Navan
- Ran in the Racing Post and/or Drinmore Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle, Craddockstown and/or Like A Butterfly Novice Chase
- Avoid horses that ran at Cheltenham
- Trained by Noel Meade
MrMcGoldrick
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Might go with my original ew choice, a small interest in The Tullow Tank hoping for a return to form, he faded approaching the last on his previous run, so if that's brought him on he could be involved
Old Vic
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Finished very strongly today.
Always thought the horse was better on quicker ground so to eat up the ground as he did on todays surface surprised me, could be a serious player over 3m next season