ATR stats
AGE
If you are looking towards younger horses then you might want to think again as, during the last quarter of a century, 20 winners were aged nine or older. Even nine-year-olds have had a fairly tough time of it with just three winners in that time span meaning that experienced horses aged 10+ have won 17 times in the last 25 years. If you prefer to ally yourself to a seven-year-old then good luck as there has been no such winner for 75 years. In fact, no seven-year-old has even placed in the first four since 1971. Only nine of their 45 contenders have completed the course since 1992. The Druids Nephew, Unioniste and Cause Of Causes are well fancied seven-year-old contenders this season.
Since the safety modifications were brought in two years ago, the advantage has moved even more in the favour of the older horses. In 2013, five of the first six places were filled by horses aged 11+ and, last year, the winner and runner-up were aged 11 and 10. Pineau De Re became the third consecutive winning 11-year-old last season (and the fifth consecutive winner aged 10+) which is highly unusual for any leading race. One possible explanation for the even stronger performance from horses aged 11+ lately could be that smaller fences means less time in the air therefore ensuring a faster pace which, in turn, brings stamina-laden horses even more into the equation. The older the horse, the more stamina they pick up by and large.
Although there have been nine 12-year-old winners stretching back to 1962, no teenager has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923 and no horse aged 13+ has placed since Rondetto in 1969 which what the 14-year-old, Oscar Time, will attempt to overcome. No novice has won since Mr What in 1958. The least amount of chases previously contested by a Grand National winner in the last 25 years is ten when Numbersixvalverde won in 2006.
STAMINA
The race distance was cut in 2013 but the Grand National remains the longest race in Great Britain so possessing sufficient stamina levels is clearly still a prerequisite. In fact, as daft as it sounds, maybe even more so following the reduction of the race distance by a furlong in tandem with making the fences easier to negotiate that has led to a faster overall gallop to there is even less of a let up in the pace ensuring that horses have to stay extra well to win. Maybe it was a coincidence or maybe it wasn’t, but the 1-2-3-4-5 in 2013 had all finished in the first four of an Aintree, Scottish, Welsh or Irish National before underlining the stamina argument. Last season’s winner, second and fourth had all won races over at least the best part of 3½ miles.
Contrary to what is often quoted by ultra positive-thinking connections, you certainly do not “need a two-and-half miler for the Grand National”. There is no better evidence than that to scan the records and note that we have to search back to Gay Trip in 1970 for the last such winner. The very minimum requirement is that our selection should have won over three miles like the last 43 winners.
WEIGHT
The consensus view after Neptune Collonges became the first winner since Red Rum to carry over 11st 5lb three years ago (98 horses had tried and failed in the intervening 24 years) was that it was time to raise the white flag regards opposing the top weights given the Handicapper’s policy of compressing the weights to favour the classier horses. The more compressed nature of the handicap appeared to suggest that this once-critical trends factor had seemingly run its course but, not so fast, as the last two Grand Nationals have been dominated by lower-weighted horses which has coincided with the timing of the safety modifications. In the first year since the safety modifications, 17 horses carried 10st 12lb or more but just one could finished in the first 11 in a race dominated by out-and-out stayers. As for the second year since the safety modifications, only two of the eight horses carrying 11st+ finished the course, one of which finished a tailed-off seventeenth. True, that is only two years’ worth of evidence but it will still provide an argument to those who believe that the Grand National is now an even a greater test of staying prowess as the lower fences lends to a stronger pace which places more emphasis on stamina which, in turn, has led to the higher-weighted horses starting to struggle again. Incidentally, coincidence punters might be interested to know that last year’s winner, Pineau De Re, was originally allocated 10st 6lb when the weights were first announced just like all four winners between 2006 and 2009. Now that is some coincidence!
JUMPING
The modifications to the fences ahead of the 2013 renewal produced an immediate impact as all 40 horses were still racing after seven fences and only two horses fell throughout the whole contest and 33 got past half-way. Therefore it can be argued that being on a super-safe jumper is not quite the advantage it used to be. In fact, the winner of that first running since the modifications where the fence frames were altered from wood to EasyFix plastic birch, Auroras Encore, became statistically the worst jumper to win the Grand National since Maori Venture in 1987 (who had seven previous falls/unseats) judging by pure number of previous falls/unseats which had totalled six. Good jumpers still have to be preferred of course and the first five horses past the post in last year’s race had run in 64 chases between them and had only fallen or unseated their riders three times. Fifteen of the last 18 winners had no more than two falls/unseats to their name beforehand but, that said, two of those winners came in the last three years.
HURDLING
Since Lord Gyllene won in 1997, only Ballabriggs of subsequent winners had won more than once earlier in the season and those successes were achieved in novice hurdles. On the subject of hurdling, nine of the last 12 winners had run over hurdles at some point earlier in the season, the latest being Pineau De Re last season who, like Don’t Push It four years earlier, had his previous start in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival. The last six Irish-trained winners going back to 1999 had run over hurdles in one of their previous two races.
DAYS SINCE RAN
Pineau De Re became the busiest Grand National winners for 25 years last season as he had raced on eight occasions since the start of August whereas all other winners since Little Polveir in 1989 had run between three and six times. A total of 56 days had passed since Neptune Collonges had his previous start when just touched off in the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock meaning that he became the first Grand National winner since Aldaniti in 1981 to have been off the course for over 50 days. In the whole scheme of things six days is neither here nor there, the underlying point is that a fairly recent run is important and it also doesn’t necessarily have to be a good one. Unless the ante-post favourite, Shutthefrontdoor, is given a prep race, he will not have run for 152 days and last season’s runner-up, Balthazar King, will have been off the course for 148 days.
‘WELL IN’ AT THE WEIGHTS
This is my favourite Grand National stat in recent seasons. Three of the last eight winners were officially at least 5lb ‘well in’ having improved since the weights were unveiled in mid-February. Sunnyhillboy was also only beaten by a nose attempting likewise. This is significant as few contenders are ‘well in’ at all, let alone to the tune of 5lb+. Trying to find the best handicapped horse is usually the best way of attacking handicaps but that sometimes gets lost in all the facts and figures and luck-in-running required to win the Grand National and last year’s officially best-in horse to the tune of 9lb, Balthazar King, only found one too good. The Druids Nephew, The Package and Goonyella are 10lb ‘well in’ so come out as officially the best handicapped horses in this season’s race ahead of Rocky Creek (9lb), Rebel Rebellion (7lb), Rubi Light (7lb) and Soll (7lb).
BREEDING
Twelve of the last 16 winners were bred in Ireland from marginally over 50% representation but, with Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges and Pineau De Re successful in the last six years from just 20% representation, the days of opposing French-breds (no winner for 100 years up until 2009) are well and truly over. There were four French-bred runners-up between 1996 and 2005 so it had been coming. Red Marauder was the last British-bred winner in 2001. Old Vic is the sire with the best recent record having produced Comply Or Die in 2008 and the 1-2 two years later when Don’t Push It beat Black Apalachi. Another of his progeny, Sunnyhillboy, was just a nose away from giving him a third Grand National winner three years ago.
TACTICS
Regarding race tactics, although 19 of the last 25 winners raced very prominently after the first circuit enjoying themselves in front or just off the pace, very recent winners have been given more patient rides. In fact, of those six most-recent Grand National winners not to have raced bang on the pace once the field head out for the second circuit, four have come in the last six years including both winners since the safety modifications so perhaps this once strong trend which was a factor in-running punters liked to latch onto has now runs its course?
EXPERIENCE IN NATIONALS
The 1-2-3-4-5 in 2013 had all finished in the first four in an Aintree, Scottish, Welsh or Irish National before so checking out the form from other Nationals is a more than worthwhile exercise. Of the last 18 winners as many as 12 had won or finished placed in a National of one description or another. Seven Grand National winners going back to 1991 ran at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month. However, just one Cheltenham Festival winner from the same season has followed up in the Grand National since Nicolaus Silver won in 1961.
WHERE TRAINED
Seven years have now passed since we witnessed the last Irish-trained winner when Silver Birch was successful which has to be considered as a mini drought given that they had plundered six of the previous eight runnings between 1999 and 2007. Nigel Twiston-Davies is the only trainer currently holding a licence to have won the Grand National more than once courtesy of Earth Summit and Bindaree from his 45 runners but Nicky Henderson has yet to win the Grand National from 37 attempts of which four have placed, notably his very first runner, Zongalero in 1979. Jonjo O’Neill never completed the Grand National course in eight attempts as a jockey but one victory, two seconds and three thirds from 27 runners as a trainer is a superb return. Willie Mullins has saddled a winner, second and third from his 28 runners. The only Welsh-trained winner was Kirkland in 1905 but they went close supplying the runner-up and third two years ago. The only Scottish-trained winner was Rubstic in 1979.
JOCKEYS’ RECORDS
All being well this will be AP McCoy’s 20th ride in the Grand National and therefore he will break the record of most ever rides in the race. From 19 previous rides, the soon-to-be 20-times Champion Jockey won on Don’t Push It and has finished third on five occasions. Ruby Walsh has the best record of current jockeys having won on Papillon and Hedgehunter and he has completed the course on seven other occasions (four of which finishing second, third or fourth) from 11 rides. Paul Moloney has not ridden the winner but he has remarkably reached a place for the last six years. Richard Johnson has had most Grand National rides without winning (18) but has finished second on What’s Up Boys and Balthazar King.
SP
Despite the Grand National’s public reputation as being a lottery, the fact that two-thirds of the last 24 winners were sent off in the first eight in the betting would suggest it is not as impossible as many believe. However, winner finding has undeniably got much tougher of late with five of the last eight winners sent off at 100/1, 66/1, 33/1 (x2) and 25/1.
COURSE EXPERIENCE
And finally, so how important is the much-discussed ‘Aintree Factor’? It cannot be a bad thing to have performed creditably or better over these fences before of course and the recent facts are thus: five of the last 14 winners ran in last season’s Grand National and eight winners over the same period of time had run in any race of the Grand National course before. If you are referring back to last year’s race for clues then perhaps concentrate on horses that were not involved at the business end as since 1984 only Amberleigh House had won having finished in the first four 12 months earlier. Since Hallo Dandy won in 1984 after finishing fourth the previous year, as many as 17 defending title holders and 53 horses placed second, third and fourth returned the following year and, of those, just Amberleigh House was successful. They do have an excellent completion record the following season however with 45 of those 70 top-four finishers successfully negotiating all 30 fences again with ten of the placed horses placing again and three of the winners also hitting the frame.
dog with a bone