ATR have a good piece in their trend spotting ssection
Grand National 2015
David Myers looks at the key trends behind the Grand National meeting, from the records of trainers and jockeys at the race through to runners from the Cheltenham Festival and racing styles of the winners.
http://www.attheraces.com/national/...+Navigation&nav=fitzgerald+focus&sub=&day=Sat
Trendspotting
by David Myers
Aintree is a rich source of stats for the trends fanatic, so whilst we've dealt with the individual races in our Stats Guide section, David Myers has uncovered more gems of information that apply to the historic meeting as a whole.
He will cover every aspect of the three-day Aintree spectacular, in which the last ten Grand National meetings have been firmly placed under the spotlight in the search of some winner-finding angles.
We start with jockeys and trainers.
TRAINERS
Aintree Grand National meeting 2005-2014
Trainer Total £1 levels Chase Hurdle NHF Non-Hcp Handicap
N Henderson 26-209 -10 12-87 13-99 1-23 20-103 6-106
P Nicholls 23-262 -139 12-156 11-96 0-10 18-132 5-130
A King 15-100 +37 5-23 7-54 3-23 13-73 2-27
J O Neill 11-95 -1 5-54 6-34 0-7 4-34 7-61
N Twiston-Davies 8-112 -1 2-64 3-42 3-6 7-39 1-73
P Hobbs 8-114 -45 5-49 3-59 0-6 3-42 5-72
P Bowen 6-63 +53 4-39 1-18 1-6 1-19 5-44
D Pipe 6-112 -52 4-60 2-50 0-2 3-34 3-78
N Richards 4-36 -6 1-14 3-18 0-4 4-26 0-10
D McCain Jnr 4-88 -55 2-31 2-45 0-12 2-40 2-48
K Bishop 3-4 +13 2-3 1-1 -- 1-1 2-3
J Quinn 3-22 +16 0-4 3-16 0-2 1-9 2-13
G Elliott 3-28 +36 1-19 1-8 1-1 1-13 2-15
T George 3-32 -4 3-22 0-9 0-1 2-18 1-14
H Daly 3-34 -23 0-17 3-12 0-5 3-15 0-19
Miss V Williams 3-92 +43 3-51 0-39 0-2 0-26 3-66
NICKY HENDERSON
2014: 4-29 (-£4)
2013: 5-31 (£0)
2012: 6-27 (+£13)
2011: 3-24 (-£11)
2010: 3-19 (-£1)
Henderson’s Cheltenham Festival winners here: 3-9 (33%) £0
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 8-26 (31%) +£8
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 7-74 (11%) +£11
Overview: An average time of things here last season when sending out four winners across the three days, where once again punters found it hard to profit via his runners blind. It was a similar story at the recent Cheltenham Festival, where he sent out a treble, but to the tune of -£15 to level stakes – clearly the market has got his runners right in recent years.
With that in mind it could pay to specialise with Henderson’s runners, with those in non-handicaps having returned a much healthier strike-rate, while those who were beaten from Cheltenham last time out also represented value here. It’s also worth noting the SP his runners went off last time out, as those from 9/4 to 15/2 returned at 13-59 (+£46), compared to those at 7/4 or shorter last time out 2-34 (-£32). Here are several further pointers:
6yos: 14-46 (+£73)
Officially rated 130-138: 7-54 (+£52)
Non-Graded/Listed: 4-30 (+£42)
PAUL NICHOLLS
2014: 2-26 (-£17)
2013: 1-26 (-£19)
2012: 4-28 (+£15)
2011: 3-27 (-£17)
2010: 3-23 (-£13)
Nicholls’s Cheltenham Festival winners here (last 10 years): 8-18 (44%) +£3
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 4-34 (12%) -£11
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 5-85 (6%) -£60
Overview: Having enjoyed a decent Cheltenham courtesy of a memorable treble on day two, it should pay to take a positive view of Paul Nicholls’s runners at Aintree, despite having proved difficult to profit via them over the last 10 years. Indeed, there are no specific areas or clues leading to profit for Nicholls at this meeting, although Grade 1 and 2 events did provide 18 of his 23 winners (at a loss of -£56), compared to others event at 5-140 (4%). Nicholls also struggled in handicap hurdles at 1-35 (-£29), along with his Irish-bred runners here at 3-75 (-£61).
No doubt Nicholls will have a few winners at least across the three days, but the overall message has to be tread carefully from a profit perspective, bar the following runners:
Cheltenham Festival winners: 8-18 (44%) +£3
JONJO O’NEILL
2014: 1-10 (-£5)
2013: 0-7 (-£7)
2012: 0-8 (-£8)
2011: 0-9 (-£9)
2010: 3-8 (+£23)
O’Neill’s Cheltenham Festival winners here: 3-10 (30%) +£2
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 2-9 (22%) -£3
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 3-39 (8%) -£9
Overview: A winner at this meeting last season put an end to three barren years since Jonjo O’Neill’s treble in 2010, which included landing the Grand National. With just the aforementioned winner from 34 runners since, confidence in O’Neill’s runners here is tinged somewhat, although he will of course be looking to provide a winner or two for Tony McCoy’s final Aintree. The pair have returned a profitable 9-47 (+£15) partnership over the last 10 years, while handicaps at 7-56 (+£21) also proved more fruitful than non-handicaps 4-39 (-£22).
Other areas in which O’Neill did well were…
2m4f-3m1f: 10-59 (+£24)
6-9yo’s: 10-65 (+£18)
ALAN KING
2014: 3-11 (+£23)
2013: 1-11 (£0)
2012: 2-27 (+£6)
2011: 0-12 (-£12)
2010: 1-3 (+£14)
King’s Cheltenham Festival winners here: 2-7 (29%) +£3
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 5-19 (26%) £0
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 4-24 (17%) +£37
Overview: Having left this meeting with a loss just once in the last five years, punters may want to give extra attention to Alan King’s runners, especially his Cheltenham Festival runners. Another area of strength for King came in the non-handicaps (+£9), although more precise pointers were as follows:
2m-2m4f: 13-71 (+£51)
British or French-bred: 13-70 (+£56)
Raced 2-3 times during last 90 days: 13-69 (+£59)
Elsewhere, make a note of any Nigel Twiston-Davies runners in non-handicaps, especially those away from novice races, as they returned at 6-22 (+£63), while Peter Bowen delivered over trips of 2m-2m5f at 6-30 (+£86) – five of which were in handicaps. Each of his six winners also moved up in class by two grades or more. Another to look for in handicaps is Philip Hobbs, with four of his five winners in this sphere having arrived fit following a run during the last 25 days (+£21).
But, what of the leading trainer from Cheltenham, Willie Mullins, who punters may once again look to for one of their main sources of profit? Well, his record here couldn’t be more different than at the festival, as he struck just once with his last 53 runners, which came via Boston Bob (5/1) 12 months ago. The jury remains out.
JOCKEYS
Aintree Grand National meeting 2005-2014
Jockey Total £1 levels Chase Hurdle NHF Non-Hcp Handicap
R Walsh 24-145 -34 10-67 12-65 2-13 19-97 5-48
A McCoy 22-146 -15 10-58 12-74 0-14 14-95 8-51
R Johnson 10-117 -24 4-51 6-54 0-12 7-61 3-56
P Brennan 9-86 -12 5-40 4-40 0-6 6-46 3-40
T Murphy 6-71 -15 3-38 3-28 0-5 5-33 1-38
P Carberry 5-42 +11 0-20 4-19 1-3 3-20 2-22
N Fehily 5-60 +13 1-25 3-26 1-9 3-33 2-27
Mr S Waley-Cohen 4-25 +7 4-20 0-4 0-1 3-11 1-14
D Jacob 4-35 +31 2-22 1-9 1-4 2-15 2-20
D Costello 3-24 +15 1-10 2-11 0-3 1-8 2-16
W Hutchinson 3-31 -4 1-14 2-11 0-6 2-13 1-18
J Moore 3-45 +14 1-19 1-21 1-5 2-21 1-24
S Twiston-Davies 3-44 -19 0-22 1-17 2-5 3-20 0-24
D O'Regan 3-60 -34 2-25 1-28 0-7 2-36 1-24
T Scudamore 3-86 -61 2-38 1-42 0-6 2-43 1-43
RUBY WALSH
2014: N/A (injured)
2013: 1-14 (-£7)
2012: 3-15 (-£6)
2011: 3-18 (-£8)
2010: 3-15 (-£6)
Cheltenham Festival winners here (last 10 years): 6-14 (40%) -£2
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 2-14 (14%) £0
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 5-46 (11%) -£20
Overview: With a tally of 24 winners at this meeting over the last nine years (injured 12 months ago), there can be no questioning Ruby Walsh’s ability in riding this track, having won from the minimum trip of 2m to the Grand National marathon of 4m4f. Punters had to work hard in showing a clear profit on Walsh’s rides, however, even during the years of 2010-2012 when he left showing a level stakes loss despite riding a treble on each occasion.
Another slight concern is that Willie Mullins hasn’t exactly shone at Aintree in the past (pair are 1-10 here), suggesting his outside rides could provide more value. Walsh also returned a profit on runners in the 9/4 to 7/1 range at 18-70 (+£30) – his record on those shorter still reads well at 6-17, but for a loss of -£7.
TONY MCCOY
2014: 3-16 (-£2)
2013: 2-15 (-£11)
2012: 1-10 (-£7)
2011: 0-12 (-£12)
2010: 3-13 (+£18)
Cheltenham Festival winners here (last 10 years): 6-14 (43%) +£13
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 7-27 (26%) -£5
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 4-45 (9%) -£9
Overview: So often a meeting that has proven more receptive to Tony McCoy than the Cheltenham Festival, punters all across the country will again be backing him to have a memorable final Aintree. With five winners at the fixture during the last two years alone, McCoy will be looking for more of the same, especially on those that made the top three at Cheltenham (13-41, +£8).
McCoy will also hold a leading chance of landing a second Grand National on Shutthefrontdoor, trained by Jonjo O’Neill, for whom McCoy is 9-47 (+£15) over the three days here, while other profits came via the following:
Last time out winners: 9-42 (+£14)
8/1 to 14/1: 7-55 (+£21)
RICHARD JOHNSON
2014: 1-12 (+£1)
2013: 0-10 (-£10)
2012: 1-10 (-£6)
2011: 2-11 (+£26)
2010: 1-11 (+£2)
Cheltenham Festival winners here: 1-5 (20%) -£1
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 5-13 (38%) +£14
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 1-37 (3%) -£24
Overview: Richard Johnson usually rides a winner or two at this fixture, and it’s always worth noting anything he rides arriving in-form, as 9 of his 10 Aintree winners made the top three last time out (+£19). While he has ridden 6 winners for Philip Hobbs, they did come at a loss, though the following criteria did produce a profit:
19 runners or less: 9-71 (+£11)
10st7lb to 11st4lb: 8-70 (+£16)
PADDY BRENNAN
2014: 1-3 (+£14)
2013: N/A (injured)
2012: 0-10 (-£10)
2011: 1-7 (-£2)
2010: 1-15 (-£10)
Cheltenham Festival winners here: 0-4 (0%) -£4
Cheltenham Festival 2nd & 3rd placed runners here: 3-9 (33%) +£3
Cheltenham Festival 4th or worse runners here: 2-25 (8%) -£9
Overview: Paddy Brennan left empty-handed just once in the last nine years at this fixture, and while he is more than capable of riding winners in fields with large numbers, the fact remains that 8 of his 9 winners came in races with 17 runners or less (+£18). Brennan was also seen to best effect on those with a realistic chance in the market at 16/1 or shorter, where he struck at a tidy strike-rate of 9-45 (+£29).
Seven years have passed since Timmy Murphy rode a winner at this meeting, as some of the choice rides that were once supplied have dried up, though Wayne Hutchinson rode three winners here since 2012, all of which came over trips of 2m-2m4f. Daryl Jacob has also been a friend to punters here courtesy of a level profit of +£31.
SIRES
Leading sires at Aintree from 2005-2014
Sire Total £1 2m-2m1f 2m4f-2m6f 3m-3m3f 4m4f
Presenting 16-158 +40 1-35 6-56 8-53 1-10
Old Vic 14-121 +79 2-20 2-34 8-44 2-20
Oscar 14-125 -40 2-38 8-49 4-30 0-5
Kings Theatre 12-107 -48 1-38 10-40 1-25 0-2
Beneficial 10-93 -47 7-34 1-33 2-22 0-2
Flemensfirth 9-101 -26 4-25 4-33 1-34 0-6
Kayf Tara 9-93 +16 6-41 2-26 1-22 0-2
Cadoudal 8-39 -3 1-6 2-16 5-16 --
Bob Back 8-70 -28 3-14 3-23 2-26 0-4
Accordion 8-96 -6 1-17 4-37 3-31 0-10
Dom Alco 8-37 +25 2-6 1-6 4-22 1-3
Karinga Bay 8-45 +34 3-12 2-14 3-19 --
Anshan 8-92 -27 1-15 3-45 4-26 0-5
Alflora 7-86 -40 2-30 2-31 3-22 0-1
Milan 7-54 +11 2-13 2-14 3-23 --
Supreme Leader 7-87 -42 2-18 3-29 2-28 0-11
Roselier 7-45 +8 -- 4-20 3-19 0-6
Unfuwain 7-37 +124 3-12 3-13 1-11 --
Saddlers Hall 6-61 -29 0-19 1-17 5-24 0-1
Sir Harry Lewis 6-44 +14 2-8 2-14 2-21 --
Lord Americo 6-61 +33 1-14 3-19 2-22 0-6
Heading the table is Presenting, who continues to churn out the winners at this venue, producing three in the last 12 months alone for a level stakes profit of +£27 – amongst them, Doctor Harper at this meeting 12 months ago (8/1), prior to Chicoria scoring at 33/1 during the October meeting here. Presenting is also the sire of Goonyella, who recently won the Midlands National, and would be an interesting runner in the Grand National should the rain arrive.
There are several other sires well in profit with their progeny at Aintree, and have been climbing the above leaderboard during the last 12 months, including Kayf Tara and Milan…
Aintree last 12 months
Kayf Tara 4-26 +23
Milan 3-13 +15
Presenting 3-21 +27
Oscar 3-21 +21
Mamool 2-3 +9
Flemensfirth 2-15 -6
Bob Back 2-10 0
Beneficial 2-19 -3
Kings Theatre 2-25 -18
Having produced four winners at Aintree in the last year alone, Kayf Tara’s runners will certainly command respect over the three days upon Merseyside, having sent out two big priced winners in Ballybolley (14/1) and Avispa (25/1) at this meeting 12 months ago.
Milan meanwhile, also sent a pair of winners at this fixture 12 months ago in Beat That (6/1) and Duke Of Lucca (12/1), and looks to have good prospects this time around in Night Of Milan. This good jumper has already finished a runner-up at Aintree, and looks sure to go well if getting his preferred good ground in either the Topham or National.
Graded/Listed races – all tracks 2014/15 season (GB & Ire)
Kings Theatre 23-137 -60
Kayf Tara 11-96 -42
Beneficial 8-81 -12
Oscar 8-79 -17
Westerner 7-48 +6
Stowaway 7-23 +12
Voix Du Nord 6-22 -6
Flemensfirth 6-76 -22
Presenting 6-101 -52
Kings Theatre is enjoying another good season in the top Graded/Listed events, and as he currently lies fourth in the Aintree leaderboard, his runners will need a second look, as will the second-season sire, Stowaway. This sire made an excellent start to his stallion career, sending out six individual Graded/Listed winners since September, and with a clear +£12 level stakes profit to boot, the market may not have caught on yet.
As for those horses who have already proven themselves around Aintree, then the following list highlights some names who could be worth looking out for over the three days.
Aintree specialists
Unioniste: 2 wins 0 places 1 unplaced 3 runs 67% Each-way strike-rate
Vinnie My Boy: 2 wins 0 places 1 unplaced 3 runs 67% E/W
Bear’s Affair: 2 wins 1 places 2 unplaced 5 runs 60% E/W
Edgardo Sol: 2 wins 1 places 2 unplaced 5 runs 60% E/W
Solway Sam: 2 wins 1 places 2 unplaced 5 runs 60% E/W
Tidal Bay: 3 wins 2 places 5 unplaced 10 runs 50% E/W
Zarkandar: 2 wins 0 places 2 unplaced 4 runs 50% E/W
Saint Are: 2 wins 1 places 4 unplaced 7 runs 43% E/W
Wayward Prince: 2 wins 0 places 4 unplaced 6 runs 33% E/W
(Only runners that raced this jumps season with two course career wins and a 33% each-way strike-rate or better at Aintree are featured).
Having already won here twice, Unioniste will be an interesting proposition in the National, and has long time shaped as though this marathon trip would suit. Bear’s Affair has also scored here twice before, along with a runner-up slot on his last visit in December and will be of interest over either hurdles or fences.
PROFILING
Pointers From Cheltenham
Did the difference in days and ground between Cheltenham to Aintree make a difference?
Year Cheltenham ground Aintree ground Days gap Aintree winners from Cheltenham Profit/loss £1
2014 Gd-soft/Good Gd/Gd-soft 18 days 13-129 (10%) -30
2013 Soft/Good to soft Gd/Gd-soft 20 days 10-100 (10%) -31
2012 Good Gd/Gd-soft 27 days 11-94 (12%) -1
2011 Good/Gd to soft Gd/Gd-soft 21 days 10-109 (9%) -47
2010 Gd-soft/Soft Gd/Gd-soft 20 days 13-113 (11%) +27
2009 Gd to soft Gd/Gd-soft 20 days 12-140 (9%) +1
2008 Gd to soft Good 20 days 9-112 (8%) -45
2007 Soft/Good to soft Good 27 days 9-97 (9%) -44
2006 Good to soft/Good Gd/Gd-soft 20 days 14-147 (10%) -38
2005 Good Gd/Gd-soft 20 days 8-134 (6%) -£94
The ground at the two big festivals was fairly consistent down the years, though it’s worth noting that on the two occasions it came up genuinely fast at Aintree in 2007 and 2008 (with no soft in the description), the strike-rate of Cheltenham runners returned in single figures both times. Single-figure strike-rates for Cheltenham runners were returned at Aintree in four of the five years from 2005 to 2009, but double-figure strike-rates were achieved in four of the last five years, suggesting an improvement, especially for those coming via the following races:
Arkle Chase supplied 14 of the last 17 Maghull Novices’ Chase winners
Champion Chase supplied 11 of the last 17 Melling Chase winners
Triumph Hurdle supplied 9 of the last 12 nniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle winners
Gold Cup supplied 6 of the last 11 Bowl Chase winners
Grand Annual Chase supplied 6 of the last 12 Red Rum Handicap Chase winners
World Hurdle supplied the last 8 Liverpool Hurdle winners
The number of days rest didn’t seem to have an effect, with a 27-day gap – which it is this year – bringing mixed results in 2007 and 2012. However, with a total of 116 Aintree winners coming via the Cheltenham Festival since 2005, it could pay to look for areas that proved stronger than others, such as handicaps or non-handicaps, hurdles or chases?
Aintree winners from Cheltenham Wins Runs % Profit/loss to £1
Overall 116 1226 9% -290
Non-handicaps 83 598 14% -138
Handicaps 33 628 5% -152
Chases 60 643 9% -208
Hurdles 53 560 9% -107
NHF 3 23 13% +25
First at Cheltenham 28 99 28% +19
Second at Cheltenham 28 105 27% +16
Third at Cheltenham 13 103 13% +46
Fourth at Cheltenham 9 99 9% -31
Fifth to tenth at Cheltenham 23 408 6% -168
Eleventh or worse at Cheltenham 6 230 3% -81
Fell at Cheltenham 3 61 5% -46
Unseated at Cheltenham 3 28 11% -7
Pulled up at Cheltenham 3 81 4% -56
There are some very revealing statistics from the above table, none more so than the poor record of Cheltenham runners in handicaps at Aintree, compared to non-handicap runners that struck three times as often, despite showing an overall loss. Instead, when it comes to looking for Cheltenham runners that showed a clear profit here, then those that made the made the top three at Prestbury Park could be worth noting, as they combined for an overall level stakes profit of +£111.
Those that arrived via the Cheltenham Festival and ran in bumper events here at Aintree also came out in profit, in the process supporting the final key statistic (not in the above table) involving distance. Indeed, Cheltenham runners that ran over trips of 2m½f-2m1f (not 2m) here, returned a record of 21-151 for a level stakes profit of +£107.
