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2015 Novices Handicap Chase

Peoples thoughts on Thomas Crapper?

2nd in Martin Pipe splitting Don Poli and Caid Du Berlais but getting a stone from them.

I'm on the fence.
 
Good shout imo.

Have had a look at stats

http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham...t-Centenary-Novices-Handicap-Chase-Trends-115

Winner's Market Position: 2 1 0 3 2 5 4 1 0 3
Fate of the Favourite: P 1 7 F 0 7 5 1 5 0
4 of last 5 winners won last time out
8/9 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
7 year olds have won 6 of the 9 renewals
6/10 won by horses running in first handicap chase
Tom Taaffe has the best record of Irish trainers with a win and a third
Nicky Henderson trained winner in 2013 and the the runner up 3 times
JP McManus owned horses have finished second on 3 occasions ( and third in 2014)
Only one horse getting in under a penalty has placed
Headgear: No winners from 35 qualifers however
First Time Headgear: 5 horses placed wearing first time headgear since 2008

Seven year olds finishing in first two last time out gives us

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92-111LEAP DEARG (IRE)713911-09Robert Tyner IRE
4112GORSKY ISLAND713811-08Tom George
2321HORIZONTAL SPEED (IRE)713711-07Philip Hobbs
S5131GENEROUS RANSOM (IRE)713611-06Nick Gifford
16F21MONKEY KINGDOM713511-05Rebecca Curtis
6251OSCAR FORTUNE (IRE)713511-04Jonjo O'Neill
23242CHAMPAGNE JAMES (IRE)713411-04Ted Walsh IRE
412232WILTON MILAN (IRE)713211-02Paul Nicholls
308F72FLAMING DAWN (IRE)713111-01Edward O'Grady IRE

<colgroup><col style="width: 49px"><col width="175"><col width="13"><col width="27"><col width="38"><col width="130"></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

Flaming Dawn is owned by JP and would be of interest if getting in.

CJ's novice hurdle form was pretty decent and a never nearer 11L second to Valseur Lido on chasing debut makes decent reading. He seems to be a classy sort, so I think he has been pretty leniently treated by the handicapper. Hopefully he's going to get a run, doesn't need masses to come out, but you never know.
I think he's my EW bet of the meeting along with General Principle and Hostile Fire for a nice treble :)
 
Champagne James still under the radar imo.
 
Novices Handicap Chase Odds Table

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Ian McClean

Novices Handicap Chase

It's a relatively recent addition to the Festival menu and even at that it has changed title more frequently than Chelmsford City (or was that Great Leighs, or?).

A 0-140 handicap with a guaranteed maximum field and a weight-range that's as tight as a conditions race, it's an unlikely source for a selection. However, I was taken enough with Generous Ransom's victory during trials' day over course and distance to believe then he was tailor-made for this event.

In a very strongly run event, Nick Gifford's chestnut travelled easily before picking off the leaders at will and winning with any amount in hand. His idling finish means he was raised just 8lbs.

The fourth that day won a much stronger race at Ascot next time and is now rated 152 as a result. Generous Ransom will obviously need luck in running, but Daryl Jacob is having a very confident year and off just 136 I'll be extremely surprised if there's a better handicapped horse in the race.

Selection: Generous Ransom
 
Ian McClean

Novices Handicap Chase

It's a relatively recent addition to the Festival menu and even at that it has changed title more frequently than Chelmsford City (or was that Great Leighs, or?).

A 0-140 handicap with a guaranteed maximum field and a weight-range that's as tight as a conditions race, it's an unlikely source for a selection. However, I was taken enough with Generous Ransom's victory during trials' day over course and distance to believe then he was tailor-made for this event.

In a very strongly run event, Nick Gifford's chestnut travelled easily before picking off the leaders at will and winning with any amount in hand. His idling finish means he was raised just 8lbs.

The fourth that day won a much stronger race at Ascot next time and is now rated 152 as a result. Generous Ransom will obviously need luck in running, but Daryl Jacob is having a very confident year and off just 136 I'll be extremely surprised if there's a better handicapped horse in the race.

Selection: Generous Ransom

I'd agree with much of this. Backed GR. Can I throw another into the mix. Stellar Notion, jumps nicely from the front and was in the process of running another nice race before knuckling on landing 3 out at Cheltenham last time. By presenting and his form also suggests he is better on good ground.

Quite an odd stat is that he is by the same sire as Rajdhani Express who finished 1st in the same Kempton handicap and 7th in the same Cheltenham handicap before winning this race.

Presenting also had the winner of this last year with Present View.
 
Creepy Generous Ransom Bold Henry the 3 course winners. I think one of them will win. Thomas Crapper if he gets in also a course winner.
 
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Has anyone got any news re Killala Quay for this, I thought he ran on quiet nicely last year and 20/1seems pretty fair to me
 
Has anyone got any news re Killala Quay for this, I thought he ran on quiet nicely last year and 20/1seems pretty fair to me

Got a couple of mentions on the race hour preview. Longsdon names Killala and Pendras his best chances. Killala wearing cheek pieces for first time. Noel Fehily rides and per @FehilyFans: @racinggroups #racehour Noel too a has talked up chances of Killala Quay - tough task at the weights but has been prepared with race in mind
 
Disappointing Champagne James doesn't go, but I hear he's being targeted for the Irish National and he's in the Kim Muir which i'd not noted. Transferred my money-back onto that at 25/1.