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If you had a tenner with three more zeros

loveracing

loveracing

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Please don't laugh guys :D:D:D, but I have a friend that wants me to help pick an e/w horse with value for a nice bet. He's not interested in any short price favourites. Can be any race and will wait for NRNB from all bookies.

Who would you choose and why?
 
loveracing said:
Please don't laugh guys :D:D:D, but I have a friend that wants me to help pick an e/w horse with value for a nice bet. He's not interested in any short price favourites. Can be any race and will wait for NRNB from all bookies.

Who would you choose and why?
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I have had a decent bet on Bobs Worth at 16s. Reason: Cheltenham Form and I will always forgive one dodgy run. I think last years Gold Cuo was just one of those days.

He may be gone but price reflects that.
 
Mr. Mole e/w in the Champion Chase. The head of the market is poor, and with a good ride from the front, he'll run into a place.
 
It would be Lord Windermere for me, has come on nicely for each run, is proven over course and distance and connections have only one race on their minds for him all season, prepared to the minute.
 
stephensmith84 said:
Mr. Mole e/w in the Champion Chase. The head of the market is poor, and with a good ride from the front, he'll run into a place.
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Sorry Stephen but cant see that being a nice bet, he mite lose his race at the start, health warning with that bet ha, get on Jezki ew, wont be out a place and a good a chance as any, you can still get 6's.
 
I would probably say each way on Up For Review in the Bumper. 10/1 NRNB with BET365 and flagged up by them that know.

I think Douvan is the best price of the Mullins shorties but your mate is probably better to wait for the offers if going that way.
 
Sorry the reason for Jezki,is a better horse in spring, loves the chelt hill, contrary to some has actually got closer to the fly this yr than last in prep runs in ireland and has been there and done it...proven.
 
I like your choices with many of them with valid chances. It don't think I will personally choose a horse for him so I will let this thread ride for a couple days and go for your most popular choice. This way he can't blame me. :)
 
Bygones Sovereign in the Pertemps hurdle March 12th.

Won last two races by a landslide. This is much tougher, but worth a punt at 16/1 IMO.
 
I've got several big fancies at a price I can recommend to you LR for a variety of reasons. My 3 best are probably:

1) Caracci Apache in the Albert Bartlett @ 12/1 NRNB with Bet365--- slightly quirky and underrated, he won a Grade 2 lto against Blacklion on his first attempt in graded company and at 3miles. Appeared to stay very well and not shy of a battle he should do well coming off a strong pace up the hill. Fits well with some trends and winners of this race nearly always from top 5 in the betting

2) Valseur Lido in the RSA @ 10/1 NRNB with Boyles --- not at all guaranteed to line up, but this is where Willie wants him and if you look at the market more closely there arguably isn't that much quality as many have other targets. If he gets the nod here over Don Poli who many think (I'm not one) already has this race won then 12/1 will look huge. I would however wait to see where Coneygree goes however because if he lines up in the RSA then it could be over before it begins IMO

3) Ordo ab Chao in the Neptune @ 16/1 NRNB with Bet365 --- Another horse who I believe is well overpriced and I have liked for a while. Lto he won a grade 2 at cheltenham over 2m 4f from the highly thought of pair Value at Risk and Vago Collognes, so he is improving and has course form. Trained by Alan King, he was 4th in the Champion Bumper at Aintree last year so certainly has a few gears and King is quoted as saying he is one of their best novices. The Neptune looks a good but open race and several of those towards the head of the market such as Windsor park, shaneshill and tell us more are likely going elsewhere which would make him 4th in the betting and as such that 16/1 will contract so he is currently fantastic value
 
Lessey said:
I've got several big fancies at a price I can recommend to you LR for a variety of reasons. My 3 best are probably:

1) Caracci Apache in the Albert Bartlett @ 12/1 NRNB with Bet365--- slightly quirky and underrated, he won a Grade 2 lto against Blacklion on his first attempt in graded company and at 3miles. Appeared to stay very well and not shy of a battle he should do well coming off a strong pace up the hill. Fits well with some trends and winners of this race nearly always from top 5 in the betting

2) Valseur Lido in the RSA @ 10/1 NRNB with Boyles --- not at all guaranteed to line up, but this is where Willie wants him and if you look at the market more closely there arguably isn't that much quality as many have other targets. If he gets the nod here over Don Poli who many think (I'm not one) already has this race won then 12/1 will look huge. I would however wait to see where Coneygree goes however because if he lines up in the RSA then it could be over before it begins IMO

3) Ordo ab Chao in the Neptune @ 16/1 NRNB with Bet365 --- Another horse who I believe is well overpriced and I have liked for a while. Lto he won a grade 2 at cheltenham over 2m 4f from the highly thought of pair Value at Risk and Vago Collognes, so he is improving and has course form. Trained by Alan King, he was 4th in the Champion Bumper at Aintree last year so certainly has a few gears and King is quoted as saying he is one of their best novices. The Neptune looks a good but open race and several of those towards the head of the market such as Windsor park, shaneshill and tell us more are likely going elsewhere which would make him 4th in the betting and as such that 16/1 will contract so he is currently fantastic value
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Thanks Lessey. I think all 3 are pretty good e/w bets. Especially number 1.

Which of those 3 would you have most confidence with? I am thinking which race has the weakest opposition and your first choice looks looks interesting.

I think this years RSA is highly competitive if they all turn up. Would it be worth a nrnb if all the top contenders turn up? I validate your points though.
 
loveracing said:
Thanks Lessey. I think all 3 are pretty good e/w bets. Especially number 1.

Which of those 3 would you have most confidence with? I am thinking which race has the weakest opposition and your first choice looks looks interesting.

I think this years RSA is highly competitive if they all turn up. Would it be worth a nrnb if all the top contenders turn up? I validate your points though.
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Probably Carraci Apache. I'm 95% certain this is his target and they skipped a race recently so he could take up his chance at the festival. He should have Geraghty on board who really likes him although the Nico de Boinville has won on him the last twice so it's not imperative but the Henderson/Geraghty record over hurdles at the festival is fantastic so he'd be my AP shout e/w
 
Lessey said:
Probably Carraci Apache. I'm 95% certain this is his target and they skipped a race recently so he could take up his chance at the festival. He should have Geraghty on board who really likes him although the Nico de Boinville has won on him the last twice so it's not imperative but the Henderson/Geraghty record over hurdles at the festival is fantastic so he'd be my AP shout e/w
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At least we both agree CA is a good value bet.
 
Lessey said:
I've just talked myself into putting more on him now...if that's not confidence :cool:
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I just had a small cover bet on CA. ;)

I have actually backed Thomas Brown for this race some weeks ago. I think TB has slip under the radar and should be bang there with a tidy round of jumping.
 
loveracing said:
I just had a small cover bet on CA. ;)

I have actually backed Thomas Brown for this race some weeks ago. I think TB has slip under the radar and should be bang there with a tidy round of jumping.
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I keep seeing people mention TB but know virtually nothing about him.

Fancy selling him to me quickly LR...
 
Lessey said:
I keep seeing people mention TB but know virtually nothing about him.

Fancy selling him to me quickly LR...
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Lessey - please read the brief notes I made in the Albert thread on page 4, 5 &6 (don't want to upset OV). I just realised the last quote was to you mentioning CA was one of the reasons how I picked out TB, ie his form against zeroshadesofgrey. TB always seems to be running on while giving weight.

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?4887-Albert-Bartlett-2015/page6
 
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