Good tip here for those looking for Ew value (IMO) - Jetson.
The leading Irish contender according to the market is Lieutenant Colonel. Lieutenant Colonel was a smart novice hurdler last season – finished sixth to Faugheen in the Neptune at last season’s Festival – and he’s taken his form to another level this term, winning on both starts over hurdles. He proved his stamina for three miles when again getting the better of Jetson at Leopardstown (Monksland and the Dedigout finished further back) and the return to better ground won’t be a problem. The major issue, however, is simple: is Lieutenant Colonel good enough? If More of That turns up in top form the answer is almost certainly not. Even if More of That completely bombs out Lieutenant Colonel looks no better placed to capitalise than a number of other contenders at a similar price. If anything, a strong case can be made to suggest that, of the Irish contingent, it is Jetson who offers the greatest value. He’s been beaten by Lieutenant Colonel on both starts this season, but there was less than a length separating the pair last time, and Jetson is twice the price. He’s also run well at the Festival twice before and is a thorough stayer, so looks likely to give his running. He has no realistic prospect of overturning an on-song More of That, but he’s not far behind the chasing pack, and looks a far more solid proposition than the likes of Rock on Ruby (stamina) or Beat That (wellbeing).
A horse with rock-solid credentials towards the head of the market, to my mind at least, is Zarkandar. Zarkandar may have been well beaten in last year’s renewal, but he was aggressively campaigned over a variety of trips throughout the season and endured a hard race on heavy ground in the Kingwell just a month before the Festival. He is likely to prove a different proposition this time having had the race as his primary target all season. Confidence is tempered somewhat by his antics late on at Ascot, where he appeared to idle markedly and let Reve de Sivola back in, but his rider will be aware of that quirk and he is likely to be played later.
The race essentially revolves around Jonjo O’Neill’s ability to get More of That back to the kind of form he was in when beating Annie Power last season. If he’s close to his best he will win and 7/2 looks good value, though there’s probably no need to act on that price before the Festival unless it’s announced he’s having a run beforehand. Should More of That fail it’s unclear who will pick up the pieces as a number of horses are rated closely, and it’s probably worth backing Jetson each-way as he’s a likeable horse with proven Festival form who’s more reliable than most.
