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2015 JLT Novices Chase 2.5 miles

Old Vic

Old Vic

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Odds

Vautour (7/2), Ptit Zig (4), Valseur Lido (7), Gilgamboa (10), Un De Sceaux (10), Apache Stronghold (16), Splash Of Ginge (16), Irish Saint (20), Josses Hill (20), Kings Palace (20), Le Vent DAntan (20), Vroum Vroum Mag (20), Champagne West (25), Close Touch (25), Saphir Du Rheu (25)out, Virak (25), Gods Own (28)out, Deputy Dan (33), Don Poli (33), Jarry Dhonneur (33), Melodic Rendezvous (33), Shanahans Turn (33), Smashing (33)in, Stellar Norton (33), The Tullow Tank (33), Un Ace (33), Adriana Des Mottes (40), Mala Beach (40), Puffin Billy (40), Rule The World (40), Stellar Notion (40), Three Kingdoms (40), Top Gamble (40), Apache Jack (50), Cause Of Causes (50), Colour Squadron (50), Florishwells Dete (50), Grumeti (50), Noble Emperor (50), Noble Endeavor (50), Real Steel (50), Val De Ferbet (50), Cheltenian (66), Deep Trouble (66), Gitane Du Berlais (66), Hollow Penny (66), Killala Quay (66), Kings Lad (66), Knock House (66), Little Jon (66), Tango De Juilley (66), Caroles Destrier (80), Arthurs Secret (100), Balbir Du Mathan (100), Band Of Blood (100), Big Water (100), Cold March (100), Fine Rightly (100), Perfect Gentleman (100), Urano (100), Landscape (150), Mister Spingsprong (150), Seventh Sky (150), Traffic Fluide (150), Draycott Place (200)
 
Colour Squadron each way ? Hard to believe he is still a novice.
 
Matt Tombs kinda negative on the big two

The only British horse at shorter than 16/1 is Ptit Zig (4/1). He was a high-class hurdler, (14½l 6th in the Champion Hurdle and rated 157.) He was careful early on in his chasing career but has got more fluent with each run. He’s won a pair of Grade 2s, beating two of the top British novices – Josses Hill at Ascot and Champagne West at Cheltenham. He looks a high class novice but is priced accordingly in what could be a strong renewal. It’d be a concern if the ground was quick, as he looks like he needs a bit of cut.
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and

That said, I think it’s virtually Ptit Zig versus Ireland. With Un De Sceaux’s demolition job in the Irish Arkle, the plans for Willie Mullins’ novices have become a bit clearer and Vautour (3/1) runs in this. He was a top class novice hurdler last season but his novice chase form isn’t easy to assess. He bombed at Christmas, (apparently suffered a muscle problem,) before winning what was effectively a match over 2m3f last time.

I think Real Steel is a good novice so it was probably a classy performance, but I get the feeling he’s not been straightforward to train this season. Up until that Christmas flop, Willie Mullins had continually said he was better than Faugheen when both were over hurdles, and then that he was his number one novice chaser. Un De Sceaux probably exceeded expectations in the Irish Arkle but Mullins was clear afterwards that he was now his number one novice chaser – the vibes on Vautour seem to be cooling. He won’t run again before the Festival and I think he’ll be a similar price on the day, when we’ll have had the chance to read the vibes on his wellbeing.
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and Tips

At this stage I want to back Apache Stronghold, (16/1). He had an interrupted season as a novice hurdler but came back in the spring to split Vautour and Lieutenant Colonel in the 2m4f Grade 1 at Punchestown. He was 8l 2nd to Valseur Lido, (who received 1lb,) in a vintage Drinmore, (2m4f, yielding to soft,) but that doesn’t tell the story as he looked to get distracted by Real Steel jumping miles to his left and he followed suit, surrendering lots of ground, (mistake 2 out not helping). He then looked a non-stayer when 3l 2nd to Don Poli, (who received 1lb,) in the 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown, (soft to heavy).

He might get 3m later in his career but the RSA doesn’t look his race at the Festival as that’s a really attritional test - I’m convinced the JLT is the right target for him. He was entered for the Irish Arkle but Noel Meade said he thought the trip would be too sharp so he heads for a rematch with Valseur Lido over 2m5f in the Flogas. Apache Stronghold jumps well, loves good ground and I can see him improving past Valseur Lido on a sound surface at Cheltenham. The likes of Vautour and Ptit Zig will be formidable opponents, but I think Apache Stronghold is good enough to put it up to them and he’s much too big a price.
 
Willie Mullins’s extraordinary ability to produce new talent was in evidence once more here as the unheralded Gitane Du Berlais made all to beat the best novice chasers Britain could muster for the Scilly Isles, a Grade One contest. The five-year-old mare pounded home eight lengths clear of Irish Saint and is now prominent in the betting for three Cheltenham Festival races, having been a 50-1 shot in the morning.

The bookmakers rate the JLT Novice Chase as her best chance of glory next month, offering her at no bigger than 16-1, but she is also in the Arkle and the RSA Chase.

Mullins was not present to offer an opinion as to which would suit her best but he would doubtless have kept his options open in any case, being among the most cagey of trainers.

Indeed, the owners of Gitane Du Berlais revealed they had learned of the final decision to run here only on Thursday, when the trainer’s office in County Carlow sent an email declaring she was en route. “We thought we were tilting a bit high but she’s loved it,” said Anthony Bromley, the bloodstock agent who speaks for Simon Munir, the winning owner.

“She’s a nightmare to place. She’s not EBF qualified, so we can’t run her in any of the mares’ chases in Ireland, which is why I had to come up with a plan to come here. It was a bit of a big jump to go Grade One, second run over fences. But [the alternative] was to take on Vautour or Un De Sceaux from the same stable in Ireland.

“I said, ‘can we bring her to England?’ [Mullins] said, well, if you can find a race that would be fine, it would suit me. So we did. But I thought it was aiming a bit high, I thought this race was really hot.

“First we knew we were coming was an email saying, she’s on the wagon, on Thursday. She was entered in Ireland this weekend as well. But he’s a great trainer, isn’t he? Can’t argue about that. He just has his own way of doing it.”

The outcome was disappointing for Paul Nicholls, whose Irish Saint finished second, 61 lengths clear of the only other finisher. It was one of many attritional races on a day when the surface, both here and at Ffos Las, seemed about as testing as it could be while remaining raceable.

“That could turn out to be a good race because the others couldn’t raise a gallop down the back,” Nicholls said. “I think he’s got a bit more class and wants better ground.

“He’s run OK. Horses get a break and they do a bit well and some of them have come on for the run. He might just improve a bit. He was heavy enough today.

“I see him a bit like Dodging Bullets in that next year, with another summer, he’s going to be a real nice horse to run all the time in the top races. What we do between now and then, I don’t know. We haven’t got a plan.”
 
Gilgamboa - JLT - PP

Gilgamboa - JLT - PP

Does anyone know why he has drifted to 14's on PP?
 
Are grand annual entries out ?

What about the novices handicap chase - too highly rated ?
 
Not to worry Mayo, just panicking a bit after backing him for the JLT. Probably best to wait for the actual entries as you mentioned.

Thanks for the replies. :)
 
Chamoagne West out for season
 
Boyles NRNB

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Will Close Touch make the cut :confused: for the 140 Handicap
 
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Nicholls added: "Ptit Zig was unlucky to fall after getting in a bit tight to the ninth fence. It was the first mistake he has made and he will learn from it.

"He was sound when he returned to Ditcheat, but we will give him an easy week before tuning him up for the JLT Chase."
 
Old Vic said:
Nicholls added: "Ptit Zig was unlucky to fall after getting in a bit tight to the ninth fence. It was the first mistake he has made and he will learn from it.

"He was sound when he returned to Ditcheat, but we will give him an easy week before tuning him up for the JLT Chase."
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Cant be too many novices win at Cheltenham of the back of a fall. I wouldnt go as far a Hoof has on the PFN thread but with the benefit of hinsight I am sure they had waited for the Pendil. From looking an open race its starting to look like another Mullins benefit.
 
mayo said:
Cant be too many novices win at Cheltenham of the back of a fall. I wouldnt go as far a Hoof has on the PFN thread but with the benefit of hinsight I am sure they had waited for the Pendil. From looking an open race its starting to look like another Mullins benefit.
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Have to agree with that mayo, a fall so close to the fez is bad news in my view, the horse will still remember it and the last thing you want at Cheltenham is for a horse to start stepping at his fences.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Have to agree with that mayo, a fall so close to the fez is bad news in my view, the horse will still remember it and the last thing you want at Cheltenham is for a horse to start stepping at his fences.
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Same problem with Briar Hill in the World Hurdle.
 
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