Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[SeanRock]

I get we're hard wired to study form but it will forever remain a mystery to me why the form of a class 5 flat race won that easily matters.

It’s visually all we have to go by Charlie. Unless you have a link to his PTP’s? A truely rubbish field can sugar coat a winning margin considerably. I know I’m trying to pick holes and it’s just making me think twice.


Edit: Having watched the Kempton bumper back again way too many times he was galloping away nicely at the line in 2nd gear probably with his ears pricked, he probably has loads more in the tank. I’d have just liked a little glimpse of it before parting with my few bob.

I’m only prolonging the inevitable really, I’m going to back him now!

 

[Scooby91]

I think both would realistically be Ballymore horses myself. Shishkin looked pacy at Kempton but it really was a dire field of future chasers. I’m a fan and expect him to be competitive but I wouldn’t hang my hat on the Supreme.

Couldnt have been a worse field In his bumper, was as bad as dlauro's.

But on the hype alone. When you've got the likes of the unibet PR man tweeting pics saying here's your supreme winner etc...

I'd be pretty sure they've hyped him before they realised how ad the bumper was, but
If your building a book you'd have to have him with cashout. As hes sure to shorten at decs, and a free swing at it.

 

[SeanRock]

Couldnt have been a worse field In his bumper, was as bad as dlauro's.

But on the hype alone. When you've got he likes of the unibet PR man tweeting pics saying here's your supreme winner etc...

If your building a book you'd have to have him with cashout. As hes sure to shorten at decs, and a free swing at it.

If you had to pick one or the other of Nicky’s two Scooby who would you side with! Looking back are Chantry House he was very green, how much more streetwise will he be in a few months time? Maybe Shishkin is probably the more forward of the two & the safer bet!

 

[Scooby91]

If you had to pick one or the other of Nicky’s two Scooby who would you side with! Looking back are Chantry House he was very green, how much more streetwise will he be in a few months time? Maybe Shishkin is probably the more forward of the two & the safer bet!

I already have, iv backed chantry house any race before today. And will most deffinately will stick with him as the better horse. Wherever he goes.

 

[SeanRock]

I already have, iv backed chantry house any race before today. And will most deffinately will stick with him as the better horse.

Would you side with CH too, purely with a view to winning this race?

Taking the JP bingo out of the equation obviously.

 

[Scooby91]

Would you side with CH too, purely with a view to winning this race?

I dont know Sean, I think hes the superior horse, but I don't know if he'll go further.

If I had 365 i'd back shiskin @33s, as it would be a sensible bet, and a bet to nothing. But In all honesty i dont think he'll win the supreme, I think hes overhyped yet he's useful, so it may not be until the day, that he's found out unless he meets a top notcher along the way.


If you want one that will shorten, he's your 1.

 

[SeanRock]

I dont know Sean, I think hes the superior horse, but I don't know if he'll go further.

If I had 365 i'd back shiskin @33s, as it would be a sensible bet, and a bet to nothing. But In all honesty i dont think he'll win the supreme, I think hes overhyped yet he's useful, so it may not be until the day, that he's found out unless he meets a top notcher along the way.


If you want one that will shorten, he's your 1.

Talked myself into it anyway & Blackbow at 50’s as I imagine he’ll shorten considerably on Sunday unless Mr. Lingo is a freak & is fit as a flea after 3 years off!

50’s is just too big a price about a sort they fancied so much last year. He needs to settle far better than he has been tho! B365 freezing markets mid race means you need to take a leap of faith.

 

[Morley Street]

Based on what we saw today I'm fairly confident there wont be much talking of Chantry House in this thread. For me, the Henderson horse in the supreme is Shishkin @ 33's and I think that price will go soon.

'Shishkin and Chantry House would be among our brightest novice hurdlers'

Both have lofty reputations which Chantry House has just lived up to (without blowing anyone away) and Nicky has stated publicly that they will be kept apart.

Many people have asked about Shishkin and he worked very well this morning so is ready to go. Ascot is a possible starting point for him as I'm keen to keep him and Chantry House apart'

Shishkin has an entry next week at Newbury but I believe the plan is the Kennel Gate at Ascot. We know Nicky's leading novice hurdlers tend to start at Ascot, Kempton or Newbury and I think if he wins he'll go from 33's to a single figure price.

He appears to be completely undiscovered in the market. PP & Betfair go 20's whilst B365 go 33's. If you have a B365 account with cash out then this for me is a no brainer. As I mentioned about a week ago, I've been told by someone connected to the stable that Henderson holds Shishkin in the highest regard of their novice hurdlers. He sounds fairly hopeful (always does tbf) - 'He’s got a considerable amount of talent and we’re relishing novice hurdling'.

You’ve convinced me Charlie, I’ve took the 33s as it does seem a no brainer to have in the book... also added a small Mrs Donnelly first day double with Melon in the Arkle at 20s. Thanks.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Shiskin pedigree:
£170,000 Chelt Dec 2018; third foal; half-brother to point/3m1f hunter chase winner Marcle Ridge and point winner Shometheway; dam triple point winner, half-sister to high-class bumper/2m-3m hurdle winner Voler La Vedette.

 

[AnFiieLD.]

[1QUOTE=AnFiieLD.;128593]Fly Smart set to appear in the new year. Looks like it’ll be 1 run and the Supreme if he’s up to it.

As per a reply from Joe Chambers on Twitter. The fact he’s so big a price is worrying for me given connections but we live in hope!

 

[Penzance]

Don’t know if I’ve missed anything but Henderson’s Son of Camas is 20s with 365. Is he not considered a Henderson horse for this or is he just underpriced.

 

[charlie]

Couldnt have been a worse field In his bumper, was as bad as dlauro's.

But on the hype alone. When you've got the likes of the unibet PR man tweeting pics saying here's your supreme winner etc...

I'd be pretty sure they've hyped him before they realised how ad the bumper was, but
If your building a book you'd have to have him with cashout. As hes sure to shorten at decs, and a free swing at it.

I get where your coming from and if I’m right your point is hype based on bumpers with a view to novice hurdlers is the fast way to the poor house? Of course I don't disagree with that but I still don’t see why the bumper form of a meaningless class 5 debut won with that much in hand comes into the equation. Exchanged hands for decent money, trained by Henderson, being kept apart from a horse that’s just proved he’s decent, bought by the Donnelly’s and being (potentially) aimed at the Kennel Gate. To think he might be very good off the back of all that is no more outlandish than deducing Chantry House is the better of the two after what we saw yesterday.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I get where your coming from and if I’m right your point is hype based on bumpers with a view to novice hurdlers is the fast way to the poor house? Of course I don't disagree with that but I still don’t see why the bumper form of a meaningless class 5 debut won with that much in hand comes into the equation. Exchanged hands for decent money, trained by Henderson, being kept apart from a horse that’s just proved he’s decent, bought by the Donnelly’s and being (potentially) aimed at the Kennel Gate. To think he might be very good off the back of all that is no more outlandish than deducing Chantry House is the better of the two after what we saw yesterday.

It’s natural for there to be a lot of trouser talk about the relative merits of one horse versus another after backing one of them and not the other. It’s what makes the forum great when sound reasoning is used to back up a selection. Of course it’s reasoned guesswork, particularly in novice company, until horses run against each other, or have some collateral form.

For a Henderson Novice I like the pathway Shiskin is being touted for, the Kennel Gate at Ascot, for a Supreme prospect, or even better the 2M Kempton Novice on Boxing Day - but that’s my guesswork.

 

[charlie]

It’s natural for there to be a lot of trouser talk about the relative merits of one horse versus another after backing one of them and not the other. It’s what makes the forum great when sound reasoning is used to back up a selection. Of course it’s reasoned guesswork, particularly in novice company, until horses run against each other, or have some collateral form.

For a Henderson Novice I like the pathway Shiskin is being touted for, the Kennel Gate at Ascot, for a Supreme prospect, or even better the 2M Kempton Novice on Boxing Day - but that’s my guesswork.

Trouser talk :highly_amused: I think you mean pocket talk

It’s speculation at the end of the day, he could be rubbish.

 

[Muswell]

Don’t know if I’ve missed anything but Henderson’s Son of Camas is 20s with 365. Is he not considered a Henderson horse for this or is he just underpriced.

Nope I like him backed him for this between his bumper win and his win LTO

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Trouser talk :highly_amused: I think you mean pocket talk

It’s speculation at the end of the day, he could be rubbish.

Always preferred Trouser Talk, Charlie, it wasn’t a misquote, I meant it. :highly_amused:

 

[charlie]

Always preferred Trouser Talk, Charlie, it wasn’t a misquote, I meant it. :highly_amused:

Never heard that before! Sounds a bit saucy

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Shishkin not entered for Kennel Gate on Friday at Ascot. Henderson/JP entry is Time Flies By, recently beaten in a Listed NHF race by Israel Champ at Cheltenham.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Shishkin not entered for Kennel Gate on Friday at Ascot. Henderson/JP entry is Time Flies By, recently beaten in a Listed NHF race by Israel Champ at Cheltenham.

Shishkin is entered at Newbury though which is an easier task on debut.

 

[Scooby91]

Talked myself into it anyway & Blackbow at 50’s as I imagine he’ll shorten considerably on Sunday unless Mr. Lingo is a freak & is fit as a flea after 3 years off!

50’s is just too big a price about a sort they fancied so much last year. He needs to settle far better than he has been tho! B365 freezing markets mid race means you need to take a leap of faith.

Blackbow is the benchmark tomorrow, but I half fancy the 66/1 shot fiston de becon, Robert tyner always runs a good one in the goffs landrover, and I know he was well fancied going into it, he bombed in the race itself, but he may be seen in a little better light tomorrow over hurdles. I wouldnt put anyone off having there 50p EW @ 66s