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Handicap Shortlist - Cheltenham 2020

billymag said:
He beat a horse rated 127 by about a length given him 7lbs, (Davy looked to give a very easy time) so dont think theyll be terribly disappointed with that
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Think from memory the UK handicapper had him in the 150's over hurdles when Chelt weights came out so that will be an ok start if they are trying to get him a nice mark for the Coral Cup
 
billymag said:
Think from memory the UK handicapper had him in the 150's over hurdles when Chelt weights came out so that will be an ok start if they are trying to get him a nice mark for the Coral Cup
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Yes they did billy. Unless he fancies a tilt at one of the chases if he loses a few pounds. Took 22-1 any race with hills straight after they crossed the line
 
There is no chance the UK handicapper will let The Storyteller win a festival handicap :p

What was that rule last year that somebody found (Jack1092) We all thought he was going to be a handicap goodthing and the UK handicapper just ruined it :highly_amused: His Irish mark was essentially irrelevant if I remember correctly?
 
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It was me, emailed them about it.......they ignore the Irish mark + could use his chase mark as a reference if they wished to. Fairly f'd that nice ante.
 
Excellent yes, so he's a handicap no-hoper sorry fellas
 
Kevloaf said:
There is no chance the UK handicapper will let The Storyteller win a festival handicap :p

What was that rule last year that somebody found (Jack1092) We all thought he was going to be a handicap goodthing and the UK handicapper just ruined it :highly_amused: His Irish mark was essentially irrelevant if I remember correctly?
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You could be right about the hcper not wanting to let him win a hcp hurdle. But last years circumstances were very different. He'd been running in chases and running to 160 and rightly the handicapper assumed the horse had improved from his hurdle days and rated him appropriately because he had no recent evidence to show him otherwise. If they decide to try and get him rated for a go at something like the Coral cup and he runs in 3 hurdle races and runs to the mid 140's then the handicapper has to use that when he assess him. He might look at it and think its stitch up job and chuck some more on but theres the real chance he will rate him on what he sees (and just add the customary few lbs that Irish runners tend to get). I think hes one that should be watched in the any race market depending on what it looks like their cooking up!
 
billymag said:
You could be right about the hcper not wanting to let him win a hcp hurdle. But last years circumstances were very different. He'd been running in chases and running to 160 and rightly the handicapper assumed the horse had improved from his hurdle days and rated him appropriately because he had no recent evidence to show him otherwise. If they decide to try and get him rated for a go at something like the Coral cup and he runs in 3 hurdle races and runs to the mid 140's then the handicapper has to use that when he assess him. He might look at it and think its stitch up job and chuck some more on but theres the real chance he will rate him on what he sees (and just add the customary few lbs that Irish runners tend to get). I think hes one that should be watched in the any race market depending on what it looks like their cooking up!
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I should have the email explaining somewhere in my mailbox- i'll double check to see if that assumptions correct.
 


As this horse is Irish trained we don’t have any published marks for him at present. We only give marks to Irish horses when they are entered for a race over here or connections inquire as to what their mark would be in GB.



We keep our own ratings for all Irish jumps races. Therefore, when an Irish-trained horse is entered for a race over here, we use our own ratings to formulate a handicap mark for the horse in question rather than rely on the Irish handicap mark.



Regarding hurdle/chase ratings, we can (and do) take account of form shown in the alternate code when assessing a horse. So a horse’s hurdle mark could move up or down depending on how it gets on over fences, and vice versa.

Given as of May he was 3rd (albeit hammered) in a G1 and is 158 over the bigger obstacles....i won't be joining the Storyteller trainer this year. Too much uncertainty and i ended up with a awful Ryanair bet because of it!
 
If the horse runs over hurdles this year a number of times those runs will carry far more influence with the UK hcper than his chase run 10 months earlier. Last year he had to use his chase runs coz that was the only evidence available to him of how good the horse was at that time. Any way hes on my list and if runs to around 140 next time over hurdles ill look to get him onside in the any race market if hes around 25/1.
 
Speaking of handicap hurdlers Tout Est Permis entered off low 120s tomorrow....lets just say the 14s was generous
 
Kevloaf said:
I know it's early, but time to start the handicap shortlist thread (don't want to clog up the ante post bets thread)

Column of Fire, 3rd today behind Longhouse Poet and Elixir D'Ainay (in what looks like it'll be a good race)

Last year Dallas Des Pictons was beaten 16L in the same race who went off smashed up for the Martin Pipe.



Lazy connection perhaps but was a decent bumper horse too.
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Column of Fire out again today, same race as Longhouse Poet. 12:35 Navan

Deviated slightly from the exact Dallas Des Pictons route, but I can't find the previous winners of todays race anywhere to check what he may have had in it.


I do not expect Column of Fire to win today. I do expect a nice showing though. Then 1 more run for him and boom, Martin Pipe fav.
 
Kevloaf said:
Column of Fire out again today, same race as Longhouse Poet. 12:35 Navan

Deviated slightly from the exact Dallas Des Pictons route, but I can't find the previous winners of todays race anywhere to check what he may have had in it.


I do not expect Column of Fire to win today. I do expect a nice showing though. Then 1 more run for him and boom, Martin Pipe fav.
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Well I'd say that went as planned!
 
Looks a perfect type for the Martin Pipe doesn't he. Loads of stamina in his breeding.
 
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