10/10 2000 Guineas Dosage profiles

[Shrews]

All the last 10 Guineas winners met the Dosage Profile below:

Brilliant - High: 13, Low: 2
Intermediate - High: 5, Low: 1
Classic - High: 26, Low: 7
Solid - High: 12, Low: 0
Professional - High: 4, Low: 0
Dosage Index - High: 3.36, Low: 0.94
Centre Of Distribution - High: 0.96, Low: 0.10


Dawn approach 2 - 4 - 8 - 2 - 0 - 1.67 - 0.38
Camelot 6 - 1 - 17 - 8 - 0 - 0.94 - 0.16
Frankel 5 - 2 - 15 - 7 - 1 - 0.94 - 0.1
Makfi 2 - 4 - 7 - 0 - 1 - 2.11 - 0.43
Sea The Stars 5 - 3 - 8 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 0.81
Henrythenavigator 13 - 2 - 26 - 12 - 0 - 1.16 - 0.31
Cockney Rebel 10 - 5 - 7 - 2 - 0 - 3.36 - 0.96
George Washington 4 - 4 - 19 - 0 - 1 - 1.67 - 0.36
Footstepsinthesand 6 - 1 - 29 - 6 - 0 - 1.05 - 0.17
Haafhd 9 - 1 - 10 - 0 - 4 - 1.67 - 0.46


That can be squeezed a little bit further:

Brilliant range: 2-9 (8 from last 10 winners were in this range)
Intermediate range: 1-4 (9 from 10)
Classic: 7-19 (8 from 10)
Solid: 0-7 (8 from 10)
Professional: 0-1 (9 from 10)
Dosage Index - 0.94-2.11 (8 from 10)
Centre Of Distribution - 0.1-0.81 (9 from 10)

 

[Ron]

That's a bit beyond me Shrews. Couple of questions if I may:

1. How many of the runners each year fitted the profile?
2. Which of the currently engaged fillies fit this profile?

Thanks
Ron

 

[Old Vic]

Sorry guys for delay in responding - the real job has been getting in the way lately !

I had a look at dosage when we first launched the site - http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?FJ-Feature-An-Introduction-to-Dosage-6 but cant say I really use it much in sorting out shortlists. There do seem to be a few people out there who consistently use it to get an edge with their punting - I presume shrews is one !

I am on Ben Aiken's mailing list but have never signed up for the full service ...He has a blog here http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/ ...getting a good handle on dosage is on my bucket list

 

[Old Vic]

Odds

Australia (11/4)out, Kingman (7)in, Toormore (7), Kingston Hill (10)out, Night Of Thunder (12)in, War Command (14), Berkshire (16), Lat Hawill (16), Be Ready (20), Noozhoh Canarias (20), Outstrip (25), Shifting Power (25), Astaire (33), Charm Spirit (33), Geoffrey Chaucer (33), Karakontie (33), Muwaary (33)in, Anjaal (40), Bookrunner (40), Ectot (40)

Dosage

AUSTRALIA (GB) ch. C, 2011 {12-b} DP = 3-1-8-4-0 (16) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.19 - 3 Starts, 2 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: £43,305

KINGMAN (GB) b. C, 2011 {19} DP = 3-5-11-1-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.50 - 2 Starts, 2 Wins, 0 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: £26,565

TOORMORE (IRE) b. C, 2011 {14-b} DP = 2-1-13-0-0 (16) DI = 1.46 CD = 0.31 - 3 Starts, 3 Wins, Places, Shows Career Earnings: £ 141,046 in GB/IRE

KINGSTON HILL (GB) gr. C, 2011 {21-a} DP = 3-1-11-5-0 (20) DI = 0.90 CD = 0.10 - 3 Starts, 3 Wins, Places, Shows Career Earnings: £176,927

NIGHT OF THUNDER (IRE) ch. C, 2011 {2-n} DP = 2-0-5-2-1 (10) DI = 0.82 CD = 0.00 - 2 Starts, 2 Wins, Places, Shows Career Earnings: £19,070 in GB

BERKSHIRE (IRE) b. C, 2011 {9-e} DP = 2-1-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83 - 2 Starts, 1 Wins, 0 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: £34,651

NOOZHOH CANARIAS (SPA) b. C, 2011 {14-f} DP = 2-1-11-6-0 (20) DI = 0.74 CD = -0.05 - 5 Starts, 4 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: €107,510 in Fr/Spa

 

[Old Vic]

Shrews might correct me but Australia a bit light on Brillance along with most of other leading fancies ?

whereas

MUWAARY (GB) C, 2011 {13-c} DP = 6-4-15-3-0 (28) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.46 looks a good fit ?

 

[mayo]

Muwaary cut across the boards today but looks like lower expectations...

Gosden was in no mood for stopping and then sent out 2-1 favourite Muwaary to win the Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Handicap.

Another unexposed and unbeaten three-year-old for the present Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, this Oasis Dream colt made his only appearance last season over course and distance during the summer and showed a good deal of pace to beat the same owner's Zarwaan by two and three-quarter lengths.

Asked if the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot was on the agenda, Gosden said: "That's a possibility. He was off 82 and obviously well handicapped today.

"He'll go up a bit, but that's not a bad idea."

 

[Shrews]

That's a bit beyond me Shrews. Couple of questions if I may:

1. How many of the runners each year fitted the profile?
2. Which of the currently engaged fillies fit this profile?

Thanks
Ron

Generally I use dosage as a mathematical way of cutting down the field with a view to having an antepost multiple bet on the classics (normally a Lucky 15). The maths side of racing I quite enjoy and I find that dosage as a tool appeals to me. Playing the percentages, I think that a horse who conforms to the dosage of the last 10 winners is more likely to win the race than a horse who appears wildly out of place. However, it nearly always leaves you with a shortlist, rather than a standout bet.

Obviously it can be tweaked further but then you're relying on patterns that are 7/10 at best. Yes, it will point to the 'perfect winner' on dosage points, but the 'perfect winner' doesn't usually win as far as I can see. What does seem to win is a horse that's there or thereabouts.

For example last season I eliminated Dawn Approach because I felt his Brilliant Points were too low (2 was at the extreme end) however Makfi had shown that a horse could win the guineas with a score that low and therefore Dawn Approach was in that bracket of likely winners on Dosage. I had simply gone too far in shortlisting the race using Dosage.

Once I've cut the field down a bit I like to take a look to see if the horse fits the 'race trail patterns' I have identified on the other threads e.g 8/10 had not had a prep-race prior to the Guineas. I think 8/10 is significant and that's why I'm not too bothered about any of the upcoming 2000 Guineas trials, I would rather concentrate on what they did last year (the 1000 Guineas is virtually the opposite scenario)

For what it's worth here's what I went for in my 'Classics' Antepost Lucky 15 this year, with some reasoning

2000 Guineas - Australia 5/2 - daft price but he has a decent dosage profile 3-1-8-4-0-1......1.0....0.19, along with Free Eagle and Indian Maharaja who both seem to heading elsewhere. He obviously has the required form and the right trainer.

1000 Guineas - Vorda 20/1 - no filly had the ideal profile other than Al Thakhira and Night Song. Al Thakira needs cut in the ground and I doubt that it will be anything less than Good to Soft. Looks like Night Song is going elsewhere. Therefore I looked at the dosage profiles that weren't quite perfect and this brought up Amazing Maria, Vorda and Flying Jib. Of these I liked the fact that Vorda matched nicely with the amount of American breds in a 1000g winners profile, being by Orpen, Grand Sire Lure and Grand Sire Dam side Observatory. Add this to winning the Cheveley Park, French trainers winning 2 of the last 5, the 1000g confirmed as the target and a slight preference to Arab ownership and 20/1 looked too big a price to ignore.

Epsom Derby - Geoffrey Chaucer 16/1 - all about AOB and his Montjeu or Galileo horses (Montjeu/Galileo winning 5 of the last 7) 16/1. He has the perfect dosage profile of AOB's Montjeu or Galileo horses and therefore fits my criteria with no other challengers.

Epsom Oaks - Casual Smile 50/1 - English trainers or AOB do best. There were a number of perfect dosage profiles : Marvellous, Miss France, Dazzling, Regardez and Casual Smile. Of those I liked the fact that at the price Casual Smile is trained by Andrew Balding and he won in 2003 with Casual Look (Casual Smiles dam) and is by the legendary Sea The Stars. The a classic blueblood pedigree. The owner is also the same owner as for Casual Look and therefore I'm guessing that this race has been the target for connections since before Casual Look was covered.

** I am using the term "Perfect dosage" to mean the horse matches the ranges of the last 10 winners of the race for B-I-C-S-P.....DI.....CD

 

[Shrews]

Shrews might correct me but Australia a bit light on Brillance along with most of other leading fancies ?

whereas

MUWAARY (GB) C, 2011 {13-c} DP = 6-4-15-3-0 (28) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.46 looks a good fit ?

Yep, definitely would be in the bracket 'to consider'. I don't think I considered him in my shortlist as he wasn't in the betting at the time or it might have been due to Gosdens record in the race. Playing the % again, it's probably best to stick to AOB, rest of the Irish and maybe Stoute, from an antepost perspective. I would consider him on the day though as Bolger, Cecil, Dezangles etc have shown that it shouldn't be discounted completely.

2013 JS Bolger
2012 Aidan O'Brien
2011 Henry Cecil
2010 Mikel Dezankles
2009 John Oxx
2008 Aidan O'Brien
2007 Geoff Huffer
2006 Aidan O'Brien
2005 Aidan O'Brien
2004 Barry Hills
2003 Dermot Weld
2002 Aidan O'Brien
2001 Michael Stoute
2000 Michael Stoute
1999 Saeed Bin Suroor
1998 Aidan O'Brien
1997 Michael Stoute
1996 Saeed Bin Suroor
1995 Andre Fabre
1994 Mark Johnston
1993 Andre Fabre

 

[Lester]

Great posts shrews

I couldn't back Australia at the price but stuck the other 3 in a patent.

 

[Old Vic]

Hadn't appreciated Gosdens record in the 2000 guineas was so bad.

Is Anshan back in 1990 his only runner to place ?

Kingman was impressive yesterday but that would put me off.

 

[Ron]

Generally I use dosage as a mathematical way of cutting down the field with a view to having an antepost multiple bet on the classics (normally a Lucky 15). The maths side of racing I quite enjoy and I find that dosage as a tool appeals to me. Playing the percentages, I think that a horse who conforms to the dosage of the last 10 winners is more likely to win the race than a horse who appears wildly out of place. However, it nearly always leaves you with a shortlist, rather than a standout bet.

Obviously it can be tweaked further but then you're relying on patterns that are 7/10 at best. Yes, it will point to the 'perfect winner' on dosage points, but the 'perfect winner' doesn't usually win as far as I can see. What does seem to win is a horse that's there or thereabouts.

For example last season I eliminated Dawn Approach because I felt his Brilliant Points were too low (2 was at the extreme end) however Makfi had shown that a horse could win the guineas with a score that low and therefore Dawn Approach was in that bracket of likely winners on Dosage. I had simply gone too far in shortlisting the race using Dosage.

Once I've cut the field down a bit I like to take a look to see if the horse fits the 'race trail patterns' I have identified on the other threads e.g 8/10 had not had a prep-race prior to the Guineas. I think 8/10 is significant and that's why I'm not too bothered about any of the upcoming 2000 Guineas trials, I would rather concentrate on what they did last year (the 1000 Guineas is virtually the opposite scenario)

For what it's worth here's what I went for in my 'Classics' Antepost Lucky 15 this year, with some reasoning

2000 Guineas - Australia 5/2 - daft price but he has a decent dosage profile 3-1-8-4-0-1......1.0....0.19, along with Free Eagle and Indian Maharaja who both seem to heading elsewhere. He obviously has the required form and the right trainer.

1000 Guineas - Vorda 20/1 - no filly had the ideal profile other than Al Thakhira and Night Song. Al Thakira needs cut in the ground and I doubt that it will be anything less than Good to Soft. Looks like Night Song is going elsewhere. Therefore I looked at the dosage profiles that weren't quite perfect and this brought up Amazing Maria, Vorda and Flying Jib. Of these I liked the fact that Vorda matched nicely with the amount of American breds in a 1000g winners profile, being by Orpen, Grand Sire Lure and Grand Sire Dam side Observatory. Add this to winning the Cheveley Park, French trainers winning 2 of the last 5, the 1000g confirmed as the target and a slight preference to Arab ownership and 20/1 looked too big a price to ignore.

Epsom Derby - Geoffrey Chaucer 16/1 - all about AOB and his Montjeu or Galileo horses (Montjeu/Galileo winning 5 of the last 7) 16/1. He has the perfect dosage profile of AOB's Montjeu or Galileo horses and therefore fits my criteria with no other challengers.

Epsom Oaks - Casual Smile 50/1 - English trainers or AOB do best. There were a number of perfect dosage profiles : Marvellous, Miss France, Dazzling, Regardez and Casual Smile. Of those I liked the fact that at the price Casual Smile is trained by Andrew Balding and he won in 2003 with Casual Look (Casual Smiles dam) and is by the legendary Sea The Stars. The a classic blueblood pedigree. The owner is also the same owner as for Casual Look and therefore I'm guessing that this race has been the target for connections since before Casual Look was covered.

** I am using the term "Perfect dosage" to mean the horse matches the ranges of the last 10 winners of the race for B-I-C-S-P.....DI.....CD

Thanks Shrews. Very interesting