The Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2M 5F and is generally chosen for novice hurdlers with more stamina than those who go for the Supreme Novices’. As with every other year there are plenty of horses with dual entries making ante post betting in this race a treacherous proposition.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-6
5yo: 5-7-51
6yo: 5-11-66
7yo: 0-2-25
8yo+: 0-0-2
10 of 10 winners have been aged 5 or 6 (10-18-117), though they have represented 78% of the total runners.
No 4yo has made the frame in the past 10 renewals while horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 0-2-27.
Gender
Mares (0-1-7) have gained just one place from 7 runners in the past 10 runnings.
Breeding
Irish breds: 7-8-83
French breds: 2-3-17
British breds: 1-7-40
German breds: 0-2-8
American breds: 0-0-2
9 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred
British bred hurdlers had fared poorly in this prior to Simonsig’s win in 2012, failing to win any of the previous 10 runnings. They have won just 1 of last 10 now, despite representing over 25% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season (winning at least twice)
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle starts that season
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time out
9 of 10 winners were NH bred (exception had won a listed race on the flat & was rated 102)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception had won on only previous hurdles start)
4 of 4 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdle at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse
Other Races
Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (Deputy Dan): 21U1 (2-1-4)
Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 2132 (1-3-4)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 53143 (1-2-5)
Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle winner (Sure Reef): 13 (1-1-2)
10 Euro Admission All Non-Festival Racedays Maiden Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 1 (1-0-1)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 1 (1-0-1)
Geotech Solutions NH Maiden Hurdle winner (Beat That): 81 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Moyle Park): 51 (1-0-2)
Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 74P01 (1-0-5)
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 322 (0-3-3)
Challow Novice Hurdle winner (Captain Cutter): 226 (0-2-3)
Kells 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Vautour): 3 (0-1-1)
Liberty Insurance Novice Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 3 (0-1-1)
Cheltenham Standard Open NH Flat Race winner (Red Sherlock): 02 (0-1-2)
Classic Novice Hurdle winner (Red Sherlock): 03 (0-1-2)
Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Creepy): 72 (0-1-2)
Madigans 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Sure Reef): 37 (0-1-2)
Persian War Novice Hurdle winner (Timesrememberbed): 962 (0-1-3)
Winter Novice Hurdle winner (Kilala Quay): 2606 (0-1-4)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Faugheen): F4 (0-0-2)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Royal Boy): 40 (0-0-2)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 7745440 (0-0-7)
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in the Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Leamington Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Winter Novice Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners had won a bumper at previous year's Fairyhouse Easter meeting
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Champion Bumper, finishing 56
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-4-11) has saddled 2 winners & 3 places from 8 runners in past 6 years.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-0-10) trained the winner in 2004 & 2013.
Mouse Morris (1-2-6) has gained a win, 2 seconds and a fourth from 6 runners since 2004 (other 2 went off 100/1).
Other trainers to have trained the winner recently are Philip Hobbs (1-1-4), Noel Meade (1-1-6), Donald McCain (1-0-2) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-8).
Paul Nicholls (0-2-6) has trained two runners-up from his 6 runners in this.
Irish-trained runners (4-11-44) have won 4 of the last 10 and over a third of their representatives have made the frame since 2004.
Price
9 of 10 winners were 12/1 or shorter & came from first 5 in betting
In the last 5 years 14 of 15 placed finishers went off shorter than 8/1.
Favourites (2-5-11) have a poor record, winning just 2 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 3.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 or 6
- NH bred (or won class 1 race on the flat).
- French or Irish bred gelding
- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
- Run in 3 to 6 hurdles this season (winning at least 2)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs this season
- Finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 or 2
- Won a hurdles race over 2M 4F or further
- Won the Navan, Slaney and/or Leamington Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in Classic and/or Winter Novices’ Hurdle
- From the first 5 in the betting (8/1 or shorter)
- Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins) or by Nigel Twiston-Davies
- See more at:
http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1392047291#sthash.09YyOnc4.dpuf