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2014 RSA Chase

AP McCoy

Ballycasey won the Moriarty pretty well and I don’t think he will be far away in the RSA Chase. Whether he is good enough or not I don’t know, but he will be in the mix. He did it well despite having just his second run over fences, but I have to add that I thought my horse Carlingford Lough was running really well behind Ballycasey and he has a serious each-way chance in the RSA. I got squeezed for room at the last and my foot got knocked out of the iron, which I didn’t realise until I went to put it down and I unseated, but he was staying on well and I rate his RSA chances.
 
Sam Winner

Sam Winner ran on Saturday when second giving 3lb to Smad Place and he wasn't beaten far. Smad Place is now 8/1 for the RSA and he's 16/1 so I'm thinking he's quite a good price. He won at Cheltenham earlier in the season and likes better ground, he's a big, stuffy horse who needed a run and I was surprised he ran as well as he did on the ground at Newbury. He got a little bit outpaced from the back at the last, but again, I've left plenty to work on and I want him at his very best for Cheltenham in a month's time. He has an entry in the four-miler too, but the way he performed on Saturday to a mark in the high 140's means he's almost certain to run in the RSA. If they go a good gallop that will suit him, he likes Cheltenham, prefers going left handed and I think it's quite an open RSA. Ballycasey could be the one to beat, but Smad Place and him and one or two others have chances and he jumps and stays well.
 
vic,

Don't think your where the fav finished stats are right in the rsa piece - last years not added.
 
Took a small bit of the 40s+ on O'foalions boy
 
mayo said:
Took a small bit of the 40s+ on O'faolians boy
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YeeeeeeeS:D Backed him today couldnt believe his price ( apologies for aftertiming) .

Barry Geraghty's RSA horse now.

Reynoldstown winner will double up some time soon.
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O'Faolains Boy (8-1) bounced back after a poor run last time to shatter the hopes of Gevrey Chambertin and Many Clouds in the RSA Trial Novices' Chase at Ascot.

Found to have been out of sorts when pulled up on his previous start, the Rebecca Curtis-trained seven-year-old was seen in his true colours as he opened his account over fences in this Grade Two, registered as the Reynoldstown.

Gevrey Chambertin and Many Clouds cut out the running, with the former crying enough before the second-last fence, while Barry Geraghty produced O'Faolains Boy, who had finished second on this course on his chasing debut in December, to overtake Many Clouds and go away for a two-and-a-half-length verdict.

Curtis said: "He was wrong after he ran at Haydock - we had something in the yard before Christmas and he scoped dirty, but he is over it now.

"He did it well and it is onwards and upwards for him. He will go on any ground and we've always thought he'd make a really nice three-mile chaser.

"He should also improve and come on a lot for this. We will go straight to the RSA Chase now."
 
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The RSA Chase takes place on day 2 of the Festival and is run over 3 miles and 110 yards. This race attracts novice chasers bred with a pedigree with more of an emphasis on stamina than speed. Horses that run well in this race often go on to glory in the King George or Cheltenham Gold Cup the following season.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-1-5

6yo: 0-5-18

7yo: 8-8-55

8yo: 1-5-26

9yo+: 0-1-14

7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including the last 7) and accounted for 16 of 30 places from approximately 46.6% of the total runners.

From 2008 5yos only receive a 2lb weight for age allowance which means it is much tougher for them to win this contest. Both 5yos to make the frame were French bred.

Only one horse aged 9+ has made the frame in past 10 renewals. The only winner aged 9+ in past 25 years was Miinnehoma in 1992.



Gender

Mares (0-0-5) have failed to make the places with any of their 5 representatives in the last 10 runnings. 3 of the 5 went off shorter than 10/1.



Breeding

Irish Bred: 9-15-74

French Bred: 1-1-21

British Bred: 0-4-19

Other: 0-0-4

Irish bred horses have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race, including the last 7, from approximately 62.7% of total runners.

Both French bred horses to make the frame were aged 5, record of French bred horses aged 6+ is 0-0-16.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (exception 3rd, beaten a 1/2 length in a grade 1)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 150+ last time out

10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 3 to 5 chases

5 of 5 British-trained winner had run in 3 or 4 chases

4 of 5 Irish-trained winners had run in 5 or more chases

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a chase at a left-handed track (exception hadn't run left-handed that season)

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+ (exception beaten a 1/2 Length in grade 1 over 2M 5F last time)

10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase

10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 10 times over hurdles

0 of 10 winners had run under flat rules

The last 10 winners had previously run in a combined 40 chases the season they won the RSA Chase and of those 40 they finished in the first 3 in 38, fell in 1 and 4th in the other (in a grade 1).

The last 7 winners were officially rated 135+ over hurdles and the previous 3 were all rated in the 120's over hurdles.



Other Races

Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 1P514 (2-0-5)

Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Ballycasey): B71F1F (2-0-6)

Roy Blandford 65 Years At Cheltenham Novices' Chase winner (Le Bec): 21P3P (1-2-5)

Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner: 31426 (1-2-5)

Ballymaloe Country Relish Beginners Chase winner (Djakadam): 1 (1-0-1)

Betfred Bingo Novices' Chase winer (Shutthefrontdoor): 174 (1-0-3)

Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase winner (Taquin Du Seuil): 154 (1-0-3)

IJF 50th Anniversary Novices' Chase winner (Smad Place): 1PP4 (1-0-4)

Topaz Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): BF51 (1-0-4)

W.B.Gavin & Co. EBF Beginners Chase winner (Don Cossack): 22 (0-2-2)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Annacotty): 366344 (0-2-6)

Worcester Novice Chase winner (Just A Par): 336PP4 (0-2-6)

Ryman Stationer Novices' Chase winner (Sam Winner): 339665P (0-2-7)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Sizing Gold): 2F (0-1-2)

Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): F2 (0-1-2)

December Novices' Chase winner (Black Thunder): 482 (0-1-3)

Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 277 (0-1-3)

Previous season's Pertemps Final winner (Holywell): 7P (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Feltham Novices' Chase, finishing 323

3 of 10 winners had previously run in the Champion Bumper, finishing 207

3 of 10 winners ran in Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P1

4 of 5 Irish-trained runners (last 4) ran in PJ Moriarty Novice Chase last time, finishing 1213

2 of 5 Irish-trained runners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing 21

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Betfred Bingo Novices' Chase, finishing 12

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Reynoldstown Novices' Chase last time, finishing 12

2 of 5 British-trained winners had won the Berkshire Novice Chase



Trainers

Willie Mullins (2-2-13) has done well in this race when his horses have completed, winning it in ’98, ’04 and ’09 and filling a place in ’00, ’07 & ‘12. However 7 of his 13 runners since 2004 fell or unseated.

Paul Nicholls (2-1-9) has won 2 of the last 10 runnings (’06 and ’07).

Jim Culloty (1-0-1) won this last year with Lord Windermere while Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-3) won it in 2008 with Albertas Run.

Gordon Elliot (0-1-1), Dessie Hughes (0-1-5) & Nigel Twiston Davies (0-1-5) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.

Irish trained runners (5-6-37) have won 5 of last 10 renewals, including 4 of last 5, whilst filling 2nd & 3rd in 2012 and the 1st & 2nd last year.



Price

No strong trends on price as 4 of the last 10 winners went off at prices of 10/1, 14/1, 16/1 & 25/1 but 3 of the last 6 went to favourites.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.45.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7

- Irish bred (or French bred 5yo)

- Finished in first 2 last time

- Posted an RPR of 150+ last time out

- Had last run between 24 and 55 days ago

- Run in 3 to 5 chases

- Finished in the first 3 in all completed chase starts

- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase

- Won a chase at a left-handed track this season

- Won over at least 2M 5F

- Ran no more than 10 times over hurdles & never run on the flat

- Officially rated 136+ over hurdles

- Irish trained that finished in first 2 in PJ Moriarty and/or Topaz Novice Chase

- Finished in first 3 in Feltham, Reynoldstown and/or Berkshire Novice Chase

- Ran in 2013 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

- Trained by Willie Mullins or Paul Nicholls
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1391983040#sthash.eNL8ENo3.dpuf
 
Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner: 31426 (1-2-5)

That actually makes the Reynoldstown the best trial in last few years. Bobs Worth won the RSA after having a run in it too.
 
Davy Russell wasn't there but let told chair Morning Assembly was his best chance of a win at this years Festival at a preview night in Cork last night.
 
I like Morning Assembly but like a many people I would have liked to see him run in 2014. No question he's a good horse but perhaps lacks a bit of experience.
 
Looks very open in my view. Ballycasey looks an impressive animal but would imagine he wont be any bigger on the day and doesnt look like the sort ( too much class) to grind it out in a war of attrition. Smad Place is probably the best of the English but Chocs record at the meeting is dire lately.
 
No horse has won the RSA off just 2 chase runs since Florida Pearl in 1998. Classy types that had had only 1 or 2 chase runs but went off favourite in the last decade are Punchestowns (2/1), Time For Rupert (7/4), Commercial Flyer (9/2) and Our Vic (11/8), with only Our Vic making the frame when finishing 3rd to Rule Supreme. I suspect the issues with RSA favourite Ballycasey have been more physical than lack of opportunities because of the ground, but his lack of experience (2 runs) must be a real concern, even if it was his trainer Willie Mullins who saddled Florida Pearl.
 
Just A Par has just come in to himself after a breathing op and will be ready for RSA or NH Chase #AskPaulNicholls
 
A lot of love for Carlingford Lough at Cill Dara last night. Conor ODwyers nap of the meeting. Interesting that a Frank a Berry confirmed he goes - thought that would never have been in doubt :confused:
 
Davy kinda booked for Morning Assembly but Ruby covers off a bad Ballycasey trip over like 2013

Fahy said: "We've booked Davy to ride the horse on the understanding that if Ruby became available, which I know looks slim at this stage, then things could change.

"We're leaving the door open for Ruby as he has ridden him all season and knows the horse well, but if Davy rides, we'll be 100 per cent happy.

"The horse seems in great form. Davy came to school him on Wednesday and things went very well.

"He'll do his last bit of work next week, so fingers crossed all goes well."

While the RSA Chase remains Morning Assembly's preferred target, the seven-year-old does also hold an entry in the four-mile National Hunt Chase a day earlier.

"We've still got the option of the National Hunt Chase, just in case we change our minds, but at the moment we're aiming towards the RSA," said Fahy.
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excellent summary from Ian McClean in the indo

The Socratic logic that there is no substitute for experience if you are to master your trade is certainly borne out in the novice chase arena at the Festival. It surprises few that Lord Windermere became the 14th consecutive RSA winner to have raced at least three times over fences before the Festival given the exacting demands of that particular race, but it still hasn't prevented punters fancying inexperienced highly-touted contenders in the event.

Since the turn of the century, the likes of Punchestowns, Time For Rupert, Diamond Harry and What A Friend each started at short odds to defy their lack of match practice and all fell short. It is a disturbing fact in the context of race favourite Ballycasey, although the negative is slightly offset by the fact that in the RSA four of the last five winners have run well in the PJ Moriarty the month before and that the last seven runnings have all been won by seven-year-olds (12 of the last 14).

For fans of Morning Assembly or Le Bec in the same race, it is a bit disconcerting to know that the last 50 winners of the race had run in the same calendar year. In spite of that, two of the last three horses to start favourite (7/4 and 6/5 respectively) – Time For Rupert and Grands Crus – had not run since before January 1.

Interestingly, 16 of the last 20 favourites went into the contest undefeated, yet only two preserved their unbeaten record in the race. Significantly, one of those was Willie Mullins' Florida Pearl (the other Denman) which was also competing after just two previous runs over fences. Another plus in the Ballycasey box.
 
OFaolians Boy

A lightly-raced son of Oscar, he showed a good level of ability over hurdles last season including previous Festival form when fourth behind At Fishers Cross in the Albert Bartlett. As his physique suggests he has developed into a better chaser than hurdler. A promising debut at Ascot was followed by him pulling up at Haydock behind Taquin Du Seuil but he is forgiven that as he scoped dirty and the yard were badly out of form. However, he showed his true colours when bouncing back to form and outstaying his rivals in the RSA Trial (Reynoldstown) at Ascot last time. His jumping was fine and in what will be a strongly run RSA his proven ability to stay well will hold him in good stead. In my opinion he should be favourite for the RSA but is still available around 16-1 so has to be backed. (CS)
 
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