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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

My concerns with Altior stepping up is how he times his finishing. Whether the competition was better last year, the ground not ideal in his big races or he was another year older but he had to dig in a lot deeper and rely on timing his acceleration at the right time and only scrapped home at the Festival. I think if he steps up the races will become more tactical for him and he may blow up into if he’s let go too early or his jumping in the last few furlongs may become even more irrational. He won’t get many opportunities to try the longer distances before Cheltenham. I think the time to step up in trip should have been at some point last season but it’s that super run of win’s he may probably spoil by trying to find out. I think they should keep him at 2 miles, they’ve more to lose than gain by stepping him up and think 4/1 is a brilliant price ante post in a market with very limited opposition once again this year by the look of it.
 
archie said:
I said it elsewhere but I'm fairly clear in my own mind that Altior has been regressing since he won his first CC. I suspect they'll duck a clash with Cyrname at Ascot (which I believe they would lose) and, in the end, also opt out of the KG.
His Cheltenham chances hinge on what opposes him but a fully firing Chacun Pour Soi would be almost certain to beat the Altior that was on show last season. However, he could likely beat the ones who raced the last time.
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Do you know something about Chacun Pour Soi that we don't?
 
Only that that he wasn't fully firing in time for Cheltenham last season.
 
Archie,
I think charlie was politely saying (with the highlighting of the comment in bold).
WTF makes you think that a twice raced novice over fences (very impressive looking novice) would be almost certain to beat Altior.

I would add that he could well end up beating him though. Bit of a stretch to think it's be almost certain though.
 
archie said:
Only that that he wasn't fully firing in time for Cheltenham last season.
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Ah I see. I thought you might have heard some inside info or something. I do like the confidence though. Don't get me wrong, I thought he was impressive at Puncehstown, I just don't think a 5L beating of Defi Du Seuil over 2m at the end of the season puts him near an Altior at 80% (which is probably what we saw in March).I take your point and you might be spot on about Altior regressing, but didn't he just do what all champions do sometimes which was win ugly? The division needs that new blood / superstar to serve it up to Altior and I do hope you are right about CPS.
 
Only an opinion, quevega, but it's a twice raced novice who is already rated 167 over a regressing champion who ran to 167/168 in his major target races at the end of last season.
 
quevega said:
Archie,
I think charlie was politely saying (with the highlighting of the comment in bold).
WTF makes you think that a twice raced novice over fences (very impressive looking novice) would be almost certain to beat Altior.

I would add that he could well end up beating him though. Bit of a stretch to think it's be almost certain though.
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Fancy being my new interpreter Quevega? :)
 
I hope we see CPS continue to improve also, and it could be an exciting division for a bit.
But we've kind of been here before with Altior's challengers.
However, the sweet spot may just be about to be hit and we get a novice who is upwardly mobile vs a champion who's a bit more vulnerable.
 
I think the thing that gives me most pause for thought is that 4/1 is considered a good price for Altior when his very presence in the race would appear to depend on him falling short of hopes/expectations over the longer trip.
Given the general bloodymindedness of life, any single figure price 6 months ahead of the event doesn't even get a maybe in my book and that applies to both Altior and CPS.
Absolutely though, everyone to their own.
 
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quevega said:
He got a pretty poor ride in the Queen mother IMO.
He ended up leading 3 or 4 out but Nico seemed pretty determined to go steady enough and it just gave the speedier finishers a better chance. If he'd made any sort of serious mistake at the last 2 then he'd have been beat. And I personally think he should have gone for him way sooner and also set a stronger pace.
Eight of them were within a couple of lengths of each other and going well jumping the second last and that was never going to suit the FAV.
He clearly has the ability to go harder and sooner and let his stamina really hurt the others up the hill.
I'd mark him up after that race rather than the opposite. Not the Jockey though.
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Absolutely agree.

Couldn’t believe my ears at the back of the Club Enclosure that day when the blokes behind me were saying what a brilliant ride it was. I thought it was the complete opposite. I think Nico is one of the best jockeys in training but I think Altior got him out of jail abit there with his will to win.

With a horse with bundles of stamina at the he trip, and an ability to power up the hill, surely you go hard early on and stretch the field. Instead they took a breather coming down the hill and the pack closed on him. Couldn’t quite believe my eyes.
 
Those comments from Henderson about him needing am extra half mile now would give me sleepless nights if I was taking single figure prices about Altior for the QMCC.

It proves it isn't a CERTAIN target and even if things play out like many expect (they dodge the challenge or get beaten) he's then much more vulnerable than he's ever been (due to his age). The rating Chacun Pour Soi achieved may be flattering however it doesn't make Altior's task any easier.


Who knows what price Altior could be on the day, he could be even money ... but I don't think you need to take 4/1 now to find out. I'd rather increase my stake on the day with all the new evidence we'll gather ...
 
His recent comments lean more towards a similar path to me.
And they definitely seem keen on the 1’s.
Needing an extra half mile don’t scream gold cup either.
Ryanair it is :highly_amused:
 
Will do well to keep Altior in love with the game imo.
 
Been looking at the bigger prices in the market and the one that stuck out to me was Dynamite Dollars at 50/1. Plenty of reasons to oppose at those odds, as always with such high-odds, however in theory he was probably the best British Novice Chaser over 2 miles last season and if he comes back from injury okay than those odds would be far too high.
 
Native River said:
Been looking at the bigger prices in the market and the one that stuck out to me was Dynamite Dollars at 50/1. Plenty of reasons to oppose at those odds, as always with such high-odds, however in theory he was probably the best British Novice Chaser over 2 miles last season and if he comes back from injury okay than those odds would be far too high.
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Nicholls has come out and said this is the end of season target too. Certainly worse 50-1 shots
 
Native River said:
Been looking at the bigger prices in the market and the one that stuck out to me was Dynamite Dollars at 50/1. Plenty of reasons to oppose at those odds, as always with such high-odds, however in theory he was probably the best British Novice Chaser over 2 miles last season and if he comes back from injury okay than those odds would be far too high.
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*nod nod*

Wouldn't be the only dart you'd want at the race but in a likely small field it's not a bad idea.

Nicholls got that absolute horror show Dodging Bullets to win the race, so he can do it :highly_amused:
 
Native River said:
Been looking at the bigger prices in the market and the one that stuck out to me was Dynamite Dollars at 50/1. Plenty of reasons to oppose at those odds, as always with such high-odds, however in theory he was probably the best British Novice Chaser over 2 miles last season and if he comes back from injury okay than those odds would be far too high.
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Yep,
Magic Saint at 66's with 365 not daftest bet either.
They clearly like the horse and the improvement he got from Frodon, Clan des Obeaux and Cyrname make these types pretty interesting.
Think I'll back Magic Saint.
 
Kevloaf said:
*nod nod*

Wouldn't be the only dart you'd want at the race but in a likely small field it's not a bad idea.

Nicholls got that absolute horror show Dodging Bullets to win the race, so he can do it :highly_amused:
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Agree with all of this. Personally don't think he's anywhere near good enough to win, but field cuts up you're on a biggie at least!
 
quevega said:
Yep,
Magic Saint at 66's with 365 not daftest bet either.
They clearly like the horse and the improvement he got from Frodon, Clan des Obeaux and Cyrname make these types pretty interesting.
Think I'll back Magic Saint.
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If you can't win a Grand Annual you ain't placing in a QMCC.

Cash out :p
 
Few points here.

Altior - I think that race with UDS took a chunk out of him that he might never get back think he has lost his invincibility.

Magic Saint - Grand Annual is the bet for him see Le Prezien as the case for that bet.

CPS - I'm still sick about this having backed him at stupid odds for the Arkle the last 2 years and not backing him for the QMCC. Convinced this thing goes off 6/4 or less if he turns up.

Le Richebourg - The value for me at the moment, think we can be confident he'd have won the Arkle, 20/1 for a horse in a race where historically there has been 7 or fewer runners the last few years.
 
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