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Grand Annual 2019

Interesting that Paul has Capeland sublemented for JLT, I think the form with with Tree of Liberty looks worth a second look and ive backed him at 33/1 for this.
 
Top Gamble - Kerry Lee - 143

Negatives

He will be coming into the race off the back of 2 falls. However watching the races back - he fell at the 3rd fence at Chepstow last time out so nothing to gauge there. And at Chepstow he was coming into contention when falling 5 out. For me he hasn't looked out of form this season and actually the falls could have helped keep his mark down if you are happy to believe they won't have taken an effect on the horse going into the festival. It's not a race where you want to have question marks over your jumping, far from it but he otherwise has a faultless round having never fallen in 23 chase runs before this. His seasonal debut was a 19L defeat in 4th however he didn't have the smoothest rides being hampered and he is a horse who not only at the age of 11 would be more likely to need a run and he is a horse who has always needed his first run back after a long break. His seasonal debut form reads 4-PU-5-PU-1-F-9 so he would have certainly needed that run in December. I would have ideally liked to have seen him get a run out around Feb time so he's not coming off the back of what will be 78 days, but it's not such a long time to get me too worried and I do wonder if connections decided to pull stumps and keep him back for this.

Onto the positives

His only entry at the festival. Everyone is well aware of the record of horses coming back into this race and he came 3rd off 6lbs higher last season. He will now be running off 143 this season and at the declaration stage is number 20 on the list so is guaranteed a run and to be near the foot of the weights. Just taking the 2 ahead of him in this race last season:

Le Prezien - (151 this year) Ran off 150, 11-8
Gino Trail - (152 this year) Ran off the same mark last year, 11-10

Top Gamble carried 1lb less than the winner last year beaten 4.5L - now has a 8lb in his favour
and carried 3lb less than Gino Trail beaten a neck - now has 9lb in his favour

He was making up plenty of ground at the finish last year and though the winner would have been untroubled he may well have got 2nd place if it wasn't for being hampered 3 out at a crucial stage

His overall course form is more than fair with the 3rd in this race last year, 4th in the Queen Mother in 2017 (just missed out for 3rd) and 3rd in the re-arranged Clarence House that same year. Add in a couple of placed efforts in course handicaps through his career.

Despite being 11 years old, Kerry Lee has a knack with these older types, as she showed when his stablemate Gino Trail came 2nd in this race last year at the age off 11 (and is still running well this season at 12). The fears of soft or even heavy ground would be no hinderence at all to the horse but I don't think he is completely ground dependent (came 4th in the Queen Mother 2017 on Good to Soft) even if it does dry out by the Friday.

It's also fairly likely imo that he will once again have the services of Davy Russell onboard, as per last season. Following the latest declarations today, Elliott took out all of his entries bar Doctor Pheonix but with him having run today (and broke blood vessels) Elliott will not have a runner in the race this year (as is often the case) which would free up Davy for a ride elsewhere. Top Gamble is of course owned by Dai Walters who the pair have a great relationship with. He's a jockey who has excelled in recent handicap races at the festival over the last few years and in this specific race has finished 3rd, 4th and 2nd in the last 3 runnings of the race

I do expect there to be probably at least 1 too good in all likelyhood but for me his price is completely wrong

33/1 4 places NRNB with b365
33/1 5 places WH (36.75 with boost)
 
Now it really must be time for serious business when jono can be arsed to get involved!

Welcome back ;)



Certainly like the fact he's weighted to do well.

I'm just trying to remember what Kerry Lee said about the ground when I saw her interviewed a few days back...

Definitely wants some cut, but that's looking okay? I'd take the NRNB .

If you're right abou the jockey he'll go off shorter...
 
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If it rains all over TG
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Magic Saint could be a group horse in a handicap.
Click to expand...

:highly_amused:

I'm glad I don't have to pay for this forum :devilish:


Good bet at 5/1?


COuld have the Nicholls "hyped-up double"..... agic Saint and Give Me A Copper.

Absolute shocking prices on their form?
 
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused:

I'm glad I don't have to pay for this forum :devilish:


Good bet at 5/1?


COuld have the Nicholls "hyped-up double"..... agic Saint and Give Me A Copper.

Absolute shocking prices on their form?
Click to expand...

It was supposed to be as a quote. From everyone connected to the horse on the preview night, FFP podcast, etc.

Give me a copper I don’t fancy. Magic Saint I do.
 
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused:

I'm glad I don't have to pay for this forum :devilish:


Good bet at 5/1?


COuld have the Nicholls "hyped-up double"..... agic Saint and Give Me A Copper.

Absolute shocking prices on their form?
Click to expand...

Bit unfair, he wasn't 5/1 a few weeks back, I got 8/1 and I am sure the few in the know got much bigger prices... when they say things like a G1 horse in a handicap and reminds people of master mind, you have to take note... and if he romps home then 5/1 will look pretty tasty, but would not be shocked if he lost or won by 10L at much less odds than 5/1... IMHO
 
Sirbetalot said:
Bit unfair, he wasn't 5/1 a few weeks back, I got 8/1 and I am sure the few in the know got much bigger prices... when they say things like a G1 horse in a handicap and reminds people of master mind, you have to take note... and if he romps home then 5/1 will look pretty tasty, but would not be shocked if he lost or won by 10L at much less odds than 5/1... IMHO
Click to expand...

Indeed


He goes off 7/2 at the most in my opinion
 
Sirbetalot said:
Bit unfair, he wasn't 5/1 a few weeks back, I got 8/1 and I am sure the few in the know got much bigger prices... when they say things like a G1 horse in a handicap and reminds people of master mind, you have to take note... and if he romps home then 5/1 will look pretty tasty, but would not be shocked if he lost or won by 10L at much less odds than 5/1... IMHO
Click to expand...

What bit was unfair? I asked if he's a good bet at 5/1 and said he's a shocking price on his actual form?



I disagree that you HAVE to take note of Paul Nicholls being bullish about his horses... he may well win, but 5/1 is a short price to find out if he is.... and I am certain he isn't the next Masterminded.




Comes down to personal preferences, but 5/1 in a 20 runner 2 mile handicap chase isn't going to be value in my opinion without knowing he was already a group horse running off a low weight.

He can win and win well at that price?

....and I did have him in two multiples at 8/1.... as ever, it's all price related. I don't think 8/1 is outstanding value either
 
He has an engine, and could turn out to be extremely well handicapped, but I'm really worried about his jumping. He doesn't attack his fences like a top class 2 miler imo, and in a big field, I could easily see him being knocked out of his jumping rhythm.

I'd snap your hand off for double figures but I'm not remotely interested at 5/1 or shorter.
 
Kevloaf said:
What bit was unfair? I asked if he's a good bet at 5/1 and said he's a shocking price on his actual form?



I disagree that you HAVE to take note of Paul Nicholls being bullish about his horses... he may well win, but 5/1 is a short price to find out if he is.... and I am certain he isn't the next Masterminded.




Comes down to personal preferences, but 5/1 in a 20 runner 2 mile handicap chase isn't going to be value in my opinion without knowing he was already a group horse running off a low weight.

He can win and win well at that price?

....and I did have him in two multiples at 8/1.... as ever, it's all price related. I don't think 8/1 is outstanding value either
Click to expand...

I do not think it was only Paul Nicholls that put him up, in nearly every preview one of the panel named him as a good thing, I am sure it wasn't just because paul liked him.. 5/1 is crap but he is only that price because people keep backing him...
 
I've added Bun Doran at 22/1 with PP - 5 places

Just missed out last year on getting in by 1 last year, no chances taken this year...higher in the ratings.

Has good course form - 6212 (the 6th was in the Close Brothers where he didn't get home)

Ground no issue
 
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