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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
Kevloaf said:
Yeah all 10/11 shots

I think BVD would beat AJ at 2 miles
and
AJ would reverse it over 2 and a half.

I think. I think, I think that.
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Jesus kev. You genuinely think that?

Please oleary go mares take the easy one. But then go for the Aintree hurdle. He says that's her trip she gets the allowance. Why not?
 
Your right Scooby,no form to go on,just gut instinct on visual clues.I think Laurina would run Apples into the ground in the Mares,let's hope we see that.
 
Anyone know what time it took Apples Jade to cover the distance from second last hurdle to the line over 3 miles at christmas ?
Compared to Sharjah and Melon over the same (second last to line) distance over 2 miles.
The ground was pretty much the same if not faster for the 2 mile race.
I do. And she was eased down.
Hasn't got the pace, my arse.
 
Kevloaf said:
Another one for you then, if Buveur D'air wasn't running, you have AJ or Laurina in the CH
(No Sharjah for you - just the match bet)
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I can't back Apple's jade as she doesn't go left handed at 2 miles. Wouldn't be possible to win a CH doing that. I can't back laurina as she's done nothing imo. Id have to flip a coin as I wouldn't fancy either in a 2 horse race.
 
quevega said:
Anyone know what time it took Apples Jade to cover the distance from second last hurdle to the line over 3 miles at christmas ?
Compared to Sharjah and Melon over the same (second last to line) distance over 2 miles.
The ground was pretty much the same if not faster for the 2 mile race.
I do.
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I couldn't care less. Melon was fat as a pig. He wasn't asked for anything.
 
quevega said:
Anyone know what time it took Apples Jade to cover the distance from second last hurdle to the line over 3 miles at christmas ?
Compared to Sharjah and Melon over the same (second last to line) distance over 2 miles.
The ground was pretty much the same if not faster for the 2 mile race.
I do. And she was eased down.
Hasn't got the pace, my arse.
Click to expand...

Melon was first time out for season,not as fit as Apples was,let's see on Sumday,I think Melon will beat her.
 
Kevloaf said:
Another one for you then, if Buveur D'air wasn't running, you have AJ or Laurina in the CH
(No Sharjah for you - just the match bet)
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Kev - this isn't an argument that is going to resolve things. People look at horses (and betting) in different ways. You appear to me to be what I call an x factor punter - you go by your impressions of a horse and look for potential. Presenting P, Laurina for example. These are horses who may not have rock solid form but give the impression they may be out of the ordinary. It's this that leads you to having 40/1 tickets on PP and big prices on Laurina. Others just don't see that = they just want established form and regard racing as more of a science. They get their edge by spotting formlines earlier than others and secure their value that way. It is a rare thing when the two methods coincide. From your angle, you take your punt and sit on your big price hoping that your opinion is proved right by the form. The other angle is to try to get on horses with the form in the book before they win and shorten. Both work. Neither is right or wrong, just different.
 
Scooby91 said:
Jesus kev. You genuinely think that?

Please oleary go mares take the easy one. But then go for the Aintree hurdle. He says that's her trip she gets the allowance. Why not?
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Buveur D'air has shown two bits of form that have me doubting him being as good as I thought (Last years CH and this seasons Christmas Hurdle)

So at Aintree, having to give her 7 lbs, I'm not sure I'd back him at 10/11. I'd chance her.

It's not bullish, the price (in real life) would sway me one way or the other....but I really rate AJ too
 
delsie777 said:
Kev - this isn't an argument that is going to resolve things. People look at horses (and betting) in different ways. You appear to me to be what I call an x factor punter - you go by your impressions of a horse and look for potential. Presenting P, Laurina for example. These are horses who may not have rock solid form but give the impression they may be out of the ordinary. It's this that leads you to having 40/1 tickets on PP and big prices on Laurina. Others just don't see that = they just want established form and regard racing as more of a science. They get their edge by spotting formlines earlier than others and secure their value that way. It is a rare thing when the two methods coincide. From your angle, you take your punt and sit on your big price hoping that your opinion is proved right by the form. The other angle is to try to get on horses with the form in the book before they win and shorten. Both work. Neither is right or wrong, just different.
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I think you've taken quite a small snap shot to form that opinion Delsie. (The opening post in the Stayers Hurdle thread is an example)

I am sure you have better things to do than look this up, but I've gone in to detail about my approach on a few threads over the years (as it's evolving), and I wouldn't say I could be pigeon-holed like that :p

...and with all due respect, I wasn't asking that question to 'solve' the Champion Hurdle, neither was I doing it to 'argue', it was part of a discussion about the horses in this race. I take it on myself to ensure questions are asked and debates carry on so we don't have threads without any news for days :)
 
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Scooby91 said:
DRF is left handed. All he has to do is sit on the tail. She'll go violently out to the right on the bend I think it's 3 out where Nichols canyon did against faugheen. Melon slips up the inside. Game over .
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I don't recall AJ ever going violently out to her right.
 
Scooby91 said:
DRF is left handed. All he has to do is sit on the tail. She'll go violently out to the right on the bend I think it's 3 out where Nichols canyon did against faugheen. Melon slips up the inside. Game over .
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Can see this too, just a few weeks before he claims his deserved Champion Hurdle too :devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
I think you've taken quite a small snap shot to form that opinion Delsie. (The opening post in the Stayers Hurdle thread is an example)

I am sure you have better things to do than look this up, but I've gone in to detail about my approach on a few threads over the years (as it's evolving), and I wouldn't say I could be pigeon-holed like that :p

...and with all due respect, I wasn't asking that question to 'solve' the Champion Hurdle, neither was I doing it to 'argue', it was part of a discussion about the horses in this race. I take it on myself to ensure questions are asked and debates carry on so we don't have threads without any news for days :)
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Wasn't in any way a criticism. I admire people with the ability to spot potential. It's a great thing and much more fun than science!
 
delsie777 said:
Kev - this isn't an argument that is going to resolve things. People look at horses (and betting) in different ways. You appear to me to be what I call an x factor punter - you go by your impressions of a horse and look for potential. Presenting P, Laurina for example. These are horses who may not have rock solid form but give the impression they may be out of the ordinary. It's this that leads you to having 40/1 tickets on PP and big prices on Laurina. Others just don't see that = they just want established form and regard racing as more of a science. They get their edge by spotting formlines earlier than others and secure their value that way. It is a rare thing when the two methods coincide. From your angle, you take your punt and sit on your big price hoping that your opinion is proved right by the form. The other angle is to try to get on horses with the form in the book before they win and shorten. Both work. Neither is right or wrong, just different.
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Far too simplistic as Kev, says.
Claiming the study of formline's and the edge is spotting them first is a scientific way of punting is not the best description I've ever heard. And not a science.
Anyone who doesn't factor all aspects, potential, historical evidence, actual form in the book, and most importantly PRICE. Shouldn't be betting to a serious level.
although to what degree of these aspects hold the most sway is definitely an individual thing.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Watched all her races Jack. She jumped slightly to the right but at no point would I describe it as violent.
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Like a lot of horses, she does it when fatigued, like in the mares last year, but she's not finished tired this year yet.
So I've not spotted anything too untoward.
Although if she does what Nichols canyon used to do at leopardstown then she'll struggle.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Watched all her races Jack. She jumped slightly to the right but at no point would I describe it as violent.
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Watch Nichols canyon v faugheen. It's the track configuration. The hurdle is on a left handed bend. If you jump right, and she markedly does. you'll go violently right at that one. Its a crucial stage. Faugheen slips up the inside and gets a huge advantage.
 
Scooby91 said:
Watch Nichols canyon v faugheen. It's the track configuration. The hurdle is on a left handed bend. If you jump right, amd she markedly does. you'll go violently right at that one. Faugheen slips up the inside and gets a huge advantage.
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I remember it well and must have watched it a dozen times.

She hasn't been jumping right this season so I think it's overplayed. I don't have a strong opinion on who will win at the weekend but I'll be surprised if she goes 5 or 6 wide at that bend.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I remember it well and must have watched it a dozen times.

She hasn't been jumping right this season so I think it's overplayed. I don't have a strong opinion on who will win at the weekend but I'll be surprised if she goes 5 or 6 wide at that bend.
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Shes jumped right notably all year. It will be more noticeable over 2m. It's 2 out. Watch her on Sat.
 
Scooby91 said:
Watch Nichols canyon v faugheen. It's the track configuration. The hurdle is on a left handed bend. If you jump right, and she markedly does. you'll go violently right at that one. Its a crucial stage. Faugheen slips up the inside and gets a huge advantage.
Click to expand...

It is a crucial stage, I agree, but she was OK at christmas, so we'll see
 
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