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Triumph Hurdle 2019

I've had a decent lump on Pic D'Orhy, it's exciting to be on the forum gamble and probably one of my bigger bets to date this year.

But I'd definitely recommend people are cautious, seeing phrases like "biggest bet in years" is a bit unnerving, time and time again French formlines do NOT translate to UK&I national hunt, and that is even more relevant with juveniles who let's remember are very young and improving at a rate of knots past each other
 
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bobbyvalentino said:
I've had a decent lump on Pic D'Orhy, it's exciting to be on the forum gamble and probably one of my bigger bets to date this year.

But I'd definitely recommend people are cautious, seeing phrases like "biggest bet in years" is a bit unnerving, time and time again French formlines do NOT translate to UK&I national hunt, and that is even more relevant with juveniles who let's remember are very young and improving at a rate of knots past each other
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http://www.france-galop.com/fr/cheval/b3ptc1VBVUdtOGlSSWtGRjZ4OVZSZz09

.he's not coming in of 1 run. He has 6 hurdles runs in the highest quality races, in all the land. If that dosent translate. I'll be shocked

Would be the same if master dino had been purchased and came over last year for the triumph. Would be the exact same scenario.

Or if de bon Coeur went for the mares hurdle.

We're lucky to have pic over here. No one's ever managed to buy 1 like that before. And I wish the owners all the best.
Instead of buying 5 at 150- 200k with decent form like munir souede/ JP. And gone scatter gun. They've gone all in with pic D'orhy. They should be recommended imo for having the stones to go and do that.
 
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bobbyvalentino said:
I've had a decent lump on Pic D'Orhy, it's exciting to be on the forum gamble and probably one of my bigger bets to date this year.

But I'd definitely recommend people are cautious, seeing phrases like "biggest bet in years" is a bit unnerving, time and time again French formlines do NOT translate to UK&I national hunt, and that is even more relevant with juveniles who let's remember are very young and improving at a rate of knots past each other
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That's what I was getting at really.
The triumph IMO is not a race where you ought to have your biggest bet in years.
There has to be more solid races for that sort of thing.
I'd like to think he (MoM) meant his biggest potential winnings. Not actual bet.
I'm pretty cautious gambler myself but my biggest bets have been on Quevega, Annie Power and Don Cossack.
And Ireland in the prestbury cup
They've not all won everytime either.
The average Harrington horse beating Q at punchestown was particularly painful. But that's racing.
 
quevega said:
biggest bet in years ?
That's a bit dangerous based on juvenile form, developing and growing and all that.
No pressure on scooby there then.
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I listened to Scooby a reasons. I went through the form lines after and agreed with him completely.

For me, he’s my biggest bet since OFA in the National in 2017.

Because I believe there’s a clear edge. NRNB for most of the bet at 12s and a bit at 22/1 (boosted from 20s). If he wins the Adonis like I expect, I will lay some of that off. I won’t be having it all running.

If you think there’s an obvious clear decisive angle (which is rare imo), I believe a betting person should act accordingly (to the extent of betting within their means).

It’s not a 4-figure bet like some will have on him but it’s a big enough chunk for me.

If it loses, I won’t complain. Nor would I moan at Scooby. Nobody forces us to listen to him. It’s gambling at the end of the day.
 
quevega said:
That's what I was getting at really.
The triumph IMO is not a race where you ought to have your biggest bet in years.
There has to be more solid races for that sort of thing.
I'd like to think he (MoM) meant his biggest potential winnings. Not actual bet.
I'm pretty cautious gambler myself but my biggest bets have been on Quevega, Annie Power and Don Cossack.
And Ireland in the prestbury cup
They've not all won everytime either.
The average Harrington horse beating Q at punchestown was particularly painful. But that's racing.
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No. Biggest stake since OFA on the night and following day of his Classic Chase win at Warwick for the Grand National.

I have no reason to lie.

I just really fancy him. So I’ve backed the horse accordingly. For me, it’s the sensible call. Because rarely would I fancy something to this level so may as well back my thoughts or what’s the point.
 
Kevloaf said:
With the respect that's due, you just said Pic D'Ohry is with Nicholls. That's it.

If you're looking for credit, perhaps you should put forward your reasons for wanting to back horses, or WHY you find them interesting?

I'm sure I speak for others when I say, as a pro punter, I'd find your input and working's out really beneficial.

You aren't under any obligation to, but in my opinion that'd give people reasons to thank you and give credit where its due
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It was just a heads up there's no mystique to it. Anyone can look up the horse and see he has high class French form.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
I listened to Scooby a reasons. I went through the form lines after and agreed with him completely.

For me, he’s my biggest bet since OFA in the National in 2017.

Because I believe there’s a clear edge. NRNB for most of the bet at 12s and a bit at 22/1 (boosted from 20s). If he wins the Adonis like I expect, I will lay some of that off. I won’t be having it all running.

If you think there’s an obvious clear decisive angle (which is rare imo), I believe a betting person should act accordingly (to the extent of betting within their means).

It’s not a 4-figure bet like some will have on him but it’s a big enough chunk for me.

If it loses, I won’t complain. Nor would I moan at Scooby. Nobody forces us to listen to him. It’s gambling at the end of the day.
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Didn't think you were the moaning type to be fair, you come across as fairly well balanced.
I agree there was an edge with the early information he'd been brought over, and the form lines.
But it's still juvenile form and there's dangers coming from all angles in a race like the triumph.
It's not a narrow division by any means, so I'd always be 'stake' wary personally.
But you bets the money, you takes the risks, and sometimes they pay off.
Like with One for Arthur, who I was against (due to him being on his highest mark) and stood to win well over 4 figures on CoC.:highly_amused:
Good luck with it, I had 2 points on myself at 22's.
Think O'Brien might have the best of them though.
 
quevega said:
Didn't think you were the moaning type to be fair, you come across as fairly well balanced.
I agree there was an edge with the early information he'd been brought over, and the form lines.
But it's still juvenile form and there's dangers coming from all angles in a race like the triumph.
It's not a narrow division by any means, so I'd always be 'stake' wary personally.
But you bets the money, you takes the risks, and sometimes they pay off.
Like with One for Arthur, who I was against (due to him being on his highest mark) and stood to win well over 4 figures on CoC.:highly_amused:
Good luck with it, I had 2 points on myself at 22's.
Think O'Brien might have the best of them though.
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Good to hear I come across balanced. That’s good.

Of course I see your point with juvenile form. But then again I weighed it up and made him a NRNB price of far shorter than 12/1. Because on the form (which despite being just juvenile form, is still 6 runs), he’s clear of the principles that he’s faced and could face here by a street.

The only one he’s not taken on at the head of the market is Sir Erec. And whilst I was impressed by him, I can always whack a saver on him should he win at the Dublin festival (which he may not - be a very competitive race). And the pros for me with PD just significantly outweighed the cons.

Plus I expect him to shorter significantly soon (probably after the Adonis) and can just lay some off then. Should he not run to form and be beaten, would they run him cos there would have to be a solid reason should he not win that imo. Assuming that’s the plan.

Good luck to all who’ve had a bet.
 
Scooby91 said:
http://www.france-galop.com/fr/cheval/b3ptc1VBVUdtOGlSSWtGRjZ4OVZSZz09

.he's not coming in of 1 run. He has 6 hurdles runs in the highest quality races, in all the land. If that dosent translate. I'll be shocked

Would be the same if master dino had been purchased and came over last year for the triumph. Would be the exact same scenario.

Or if de bon Coeur went for the mares hurdle.

We're lucky to have pic over here. No one's ever managed to buy 1 like that before. And I wish the owners all the best.
Instead of buying 5 at 150- 200k with decent form like munir souede/ JP. And gone scatter gun. They've gone all in with pic D'orhy. They should be recommended imo for having the stones to go and do that.
Click to expand...

I can see the form, it reads great and he's got plenty of high class experience for a juvenile. But there are many reasons form might not translate. The fences are different, the style of racing is different etc - I see all his races to date have been on very soft or heavy

Like quevega I'd be wary of my biggest bet in years being ante-post on the triumph. If we say horses are improving over jumps till the age of 6 or 7 it stands that some horses e.g. Fakir D'Oudairies simply were not mature enough in during their time in France and go rattling off at unsustainable pace. Add in to the mix that you've got completely unexposed types, and then those that have been competing in the flat, no real evidence on ground preference, I simply don't know how you can get truly confident on an opinion at this stage

That said, I'm on the bandwagon and want it to do the f*cking business for you and the forum.
 
boopa said:
It was just a heads up there's no mystique to it. Anyone can look up the horse and see he has high class French form.
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Absolutely they can ... and you did and backed him I'd assume?

You don't seem to like to go over two sentences at a time, but if you'd squeezed in "he's got high class French form, look it up" I'm sure you'd get more 'thanks'?

If you're not looking for the recognition I'm not sure what your post was for, stating you highlighted him first?
 
I personally only have the choice to back pic d' orhy without nrnb. Anyone who can get nrnb. I'd strongly advise that they take that and the shorter price. Just in case
He's still value at the shorter price.
 
Patrick Mullins mentioned on friday they didnt even get tiger tap tap out on grass and did hardly any work with him before his run and expects him to improve past sir erec.
 
Scooby91 said:
I personally only have the choice to back pic d' orhy without nrnb. Anyone who can get nrnb. I'd strongly advise that they take that and the shorter price. Just in case
He's still value at the shorter price.
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Yep. Absolutely 100% agree.
 
If any ones backed with 365. Might want to cash and re back nrnb after entries just incase he's not entered. Same for paddy. And betfair.
 
Scooby91 said:
If any ones backed with 365. Might want to cash and re back nrnb after entries just incase he's not entered. Same for paddy. And betfair.
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This is the last time I'll mention this. And I CANT BE ANY CLEARER, So I don't want any moaning if anyone dosent listen. STRONGLY THINK ABOUT TAKING THE ADVICE ABOVE. I can't be any fairer than that.
 
Scooby91 said:
This is the last time I'll mention this. And I CANT BE ANY CLEARER, So I don't want any moaning if anyone dosent listen. STRONGLY THINK ABOUT TAKING THE ADVICE ABOVE. I can't be any fairer than that.
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crystal :highly_amused:
 
Scooby91 said:
This is the last time I'll mention this. And I CANT BE ANY CLEARER, So I don't want any moaning if anyone dosent listen. STRONGLY THINK ABOUT TAKING THE ADVICE ABOVE. I can't be any fairer than that.
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Agree with this.

Mine are split 75/25 in favour of NRNB/Boosted WH price, and I am happy with that.

Out of interest, would you still be expecting him to turn up? No reason you know of to doubt he won't be?
 
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