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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Arkle said:
If your in front can’t be brought down :highly_amused:
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Haha, a pillar to post ride from Derek O'Connor? :p Looks a great bet to me, that'd be a ridiculous Friday. I reckon it'd end me.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
��WILLIAM HILL - we will not be going Non-Runner No Bet this year, we are paying extra places on all the handicap races and we have gone best odds guaranteed on all races at the Cheltenham Festival from now
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I like that as it gives the punter options to take on better prices. Obviously more of a risk but I would rather that then them all doing the same
 
Glad somebody isn’t

Said previously we are at a stage now where I’m happy to take on the risk of an injury in order for a better price

However most of their prices are no real change from Sky
 
Kevloaf said:
They didn';t do NRNB last year either properly...

Wasn't it something like, Non runner, money back if they run in another race? Or Money back if they DON'T run in another race... was definitely one of those two!
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It was called Non runner insurance I think and you got money back if the horse ran in another race
 
Not that it matters much but Hills last year was NRNB if your horse missed the fez , if they ran in another race it was tough luck , as I found out with "Pendra" . Longsdon stated yep Ultima this year not the Kim Muir again , so took few early prices as you do with Runners who run a stormer year before , low and behold had two entries and week before "he's going to try to go one better " cheers Charlie :(
 
quevega said:
Seriously thinking about my biggest bet being on N Henderson as top trainer.
Think he has a nice hand and the two big Irish trainers will split their differences.
Want bigger than 5-2 WH though.
Antone seen any specials on this anywhere ??

B365 would be best as the first two days look really strong for him - so cash out would be an option.
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Decided to crunch some numbers on this for the last 5 and 10 festivals in particular looking at the split between the handicaps and non-handicaps. I imagined that Henderson was some way behind on the handicaps but over the last 10 years average Festival handicap winners per Festival is:

Henderson: 0.7
Elliot: 0.9
Mullins: 0.8

So negligible difference, over the last 5 years though:

Henderson: 0.4
Elliot: 1.4
Mullins: 1

So if you are more inclined to use the last 5 years you could say that Hendo is likely to have 1 less handicap winner than Elliot

This for the non-handicaps last 10 years average winners per Festival:

Henderson: 2.7
Elliot: 2.2
Mullins: 4.7

And the last 5 years:

Henderson: 2.4
Elliot: 3.8
Mullins: 6.4

So what does this tell us? Firstly, and unsurprisingly Mullins significant advantage has been in the non-handicaps with Elliot having a lesser advantage in the handicaps over the other two.

Now depending on how you see the current non handicap markets it would not be unfair to say that Henderson has a whopping 7 favs compared to two each for the other two (not included Eliiots Bumper favs). I appreciate the number of favs does not give you the full picture of strength in depth per race but it is an indicator. I also appreciate that this will change over the next couple of months. That said I'll be surprised if Hendo does not still have a decent advantage and with his handicap disadvantage unlikely to be too big as things stand I think he should be chalked up fav in the top trainer market, and I think I'll be getting involved if 3s or bigger is available
 
Hills offer last year was money back if your horse missed the festival altogether but you did your money if it ran in an alternative race. Best odds guaranteed isn’t a bad offer tbh, plenty of other bookies going NRNB if that’s the offer you want
 
If you need BOG antepost you need to think about whether it's the right bet.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Decided to crunch some numbers on this for the last 5 and 10 festivals in particular looking at the split between the handicaps and non-handicaps. I imagined that Henderson was some way behind on the handicaps but over the last 10 years average Festival handicap winners per Festival is:

Henderson: 0.7
Elliot: 0.9
Mullins: 0.8

So negligible difference, over the last 5 years though:

Henderson: 0.4
Elliot: 1.4
Mullins: 1

So if you are more inclined to use the last 5 years you could say that Hendo is likely to have 1 less handicap winner than Elliot

This for the non-handicaps last 10 years average winners per Festival:

Henderson: 2.7
Elliot: 2.2
Mullins: 4.7

And the last 5 years:

Henderson: 2.4
Elliot: 3.8
Mullins: 6.4

So what does this tell us? Firstly, and unsurprisingly Mullins significant advantage has been in the non-handicaps with Elliot having a lesser advantage in the handicaps over the other two.

Now depending on how you see the current non handicap markets it would not be unfair to say that Henderson has a whopping 7 favs compared to two each for the other two (not included Eliiots Bumper favs). I appreciate the number of favs does not give you the full picture of strength in depth per race but it is an indicator. I also appreciate that this will change over the next couple of months. That said I'll be surprised if Hendo does not still have a decent advantage and with his handicap disadvantage unlikely to be too big as things stand I think he should be chalked up fav in the top trainer market, and I think I'll be getting involved if 3s or bigger is available
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Good post RC.

The DRF may have an impact in that market, with the performaces of Willie and Gordons... I'd they do well, perhaps NHendo will drift top 3/1+? .... the problem then is the markets probably right haha
 
I've already had a few quid on at 2.7/1 with the boost. Think the price is fair enough tbh. If he gets to 3/1 I will be going in again. I really struggle to see why Willie is so much shorter. Price based on reputation alone. He'd normally have the fav for most of the novice races by this stage and currently doesn't have any.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I've already had a few quid on at 2.7/1 with the boost. Think the price is fair enough tbh. If he gets to 3/1 I will be going in again. I really struggle to see why Willie is so much shorter. Price based on reputation alone. He'd normally have the fav for most of the novice races by this stage and currently doesn't have any.
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He has literally no novice chasers except for outsiders.
And with his hurdlers I can see him sending more runners which will make it even more difficult. Wouldn't surprise me to see at least three or four in each of the novice hurdles and maybe more depending on jockey availability. He does tend to fire a few at a race when he has no stand out operator. Having lived off him and the Irish for the last few years, at the moment I'd be favouring the UK trained horses, possibly because we've seen more of them and one or two have not had a bad one yet ?
 
William Hill also have their Prestbury Cup betting up; after paying for the festival lumping on Ireland last year I was suprised to see Great Britain as big as 7/4 this year, you’d expect it to be a lot closer if nowt else
 
...be interested on a price for Jonjo O’Neill junior riding a winner at the Festival.
 
jonthehammer said:
I like that as it gives the punter options to take on better prices. Obviously more of a risk but I would rather that then them all doing the same
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I concur with this - if you're sure of something, it's nice to have someone with a price out there that's got a bit more vig to it.

As to the poster saying it doesn't make sense - one of the primary rules of branding and marketing is to differentiate yourself from your competitors, especially in categories where it comes down to price. Pretty basic approach, but being best price everywhere once ppl go NRNB is a big stand out
 
4/6 Ireland. Same price as last year when at this stage Ireland seemed to have a far stronger hand
 
Sorry after timing I took the 11/4 when Prestbury Cup was opened by Hills, still see 7/4 as a really good bet, surely they should be closer we have the edge in the non handicap races ( I accept that might change after the Dublin Fest) and I wonder if our handicapper might be out to prove a point after last year.

I actually placed the bet thinking, this should pay for the beer for the week!!!!
 
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