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Stayers Hurdle 2019

Stayers Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .
Innoko said:
Cracking Smart, who was a leading fancy for the Albert Bartlett last season before injury intervened, is in the top six at the summit of the RSA Chase market at 20-1 but Elliott has decided to keep him over hurdles.

"Cracking Smart has an operation for kissing spines and that all seems to be sorted now," he said.

"He's a very good horse and, given the fact so much of the season has gone, we might as well keep him over hurdles now. He's a proper horse."

Stumbled upon it by chance on the RP app...
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Thanks Innoko, late to the party but price hasn't changed - have taken the 33/1

I really, really fancied Cracking Smart to turn the tables on Next Destination in the Albert Bartlett (and neither ran!) and I've backed him any race already at 17/1.

He'll have to step up on the actual hurdles form we've seen, but it's not hard at all to see him making an almighty dent in this division.

Not abandoning Penhill at all, but Cracking Smart is now very much of interest.
 
I'm onboard the Cracking Smart train too lads, cheers for the heads up Innoko.....

Have Penhill in a few multis but hadn't settled on a single for this race yet so hard say no at that price. Was burned for the Albert Bartlett last season so hopefully some retribution. The Long Distance hurdle at Newbury last Friday shows the staying division in GB is very weak and in Ireland presuming Apples Jade goes for the Mares you only really have Penhill in the equation. If Supasundae was good enough he'd be the reigning champ and can't have Faugheen as much as I love him.
 
Cheers Innoko, I am as well. Horse be 16/1 by the time the FJ crew have finished :)
 
Have CS 'any race' so won't be in a rush to jump back on board for a specific race just yet.

Good spot though Innoko :)
 
The Don said:
Gonna throw this out their..... Samcro - travels like a dream but doesn’t have a change of gears and finds little off the bridle. A grinder not a speedster..... assuming Newcastle is too sharp for him I personally think this should be his target
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This is the first and only mention in this thread of Samcro being a potential for the Stayers Hurdle.

10/1 available with 365 (not checked if cashout is available but assume so).... noiw he has the entry in the Long Walk Hurdle, worth a bet now, see if he's declard, if not, cash out ASAP?


https://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/11572301/faugheen-and-samcro-in-long-walk-hurdle
 
Kevloaf said:
This is the first and only mention in this thread of Samcro being a potential for the Stayers Hurdle.

10/1 available with 365 (not checked if cashout is available but assume so).... noiw he has the entry in the Long Walk Hurdle, worth a bet now, see if he's declard, if not, cash out ASAP?
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I took 14s straight after Buveur Dair smashed him.

Samcro is still a monster. But he’s just not got the pace to beat a superstar in Buveur Dair. So surely he goes Stayers?
 
Middle_Of_March said:
I took 14s straight after Buveur Dair smashed him.

Samcro is still a monster. But he’s just not got the pace to beat a superstar in Buveur Dair. So surely he goes Stayers?
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I'd disagree with the fact he's 'a monster' myself.
 
One thing I keep thinking is a little bit strange, is that now every single pundit seems absolutely convinced he's a 3 miler and a stayer.

He didn't stay on particularly well in the Ballymore did he, he showed a lot of crusing speed in his novice season.

I was sure he'd make up in to a staying chaser, but are we in danger of assuming he gets 3 miles before we see it?

He may well just not be quick enough for 2 and not see out 3? A supasundae type perhaps?
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Or not as good as everyone thought!
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Hard to quantify that though.

I'd say it's fair to say on at least 50% of his runs, he belongs at the business end of a grade 1.

If he's going for any Championship Hurdle race, the one that he'd be most likely to win, would be this one.

However, I would be pretty disappointed if he does end up winning this race, as I've sitting on some nice prices for him in this season's RSA :highly_amused: - to find out he's not quick enough for two miles but it be over the wrong code will be a kick in the face, as I was pretty bold making a case for him being in the RSA the majority of the summer :grumpy:
 
Does cracking Smart staying hurdling and being aimed at this not lessen the chances of Samcro coming here?

Would think they would prefer a dart at each rather than two at ‘the lesser’ race
 
Kevloaf said:
I can't help myself.... I'm starting the first individual 2019 thread and Cheltenham only finished yesterday. So sorry! (The 2019 ante-post thread is already live and kicking too) :)

Oddschecker have already got the market up and it looks like this:

8/1 - Penhill
12/1 - Apple's Jade
14/1 - Supasundae
14/1 - Colin's Sister
16/1 - Sam Spinner
20/1 - Bacardys
20/1 - Wholestone
20/1 - Next Destination
33/1 - Apple's Shakira
33/1 - Ok Corral
40/1 - Kilbrecken Storm

No other horses quotes. My opinion on the horses in that list whittles a few away...

Bacardys will be reverting back to novice chasing which was the plan all along as he retains novice status. Falling again this season won't help his cause though!

Kilbrecken Storm, the unfancied Albert Bartlett winner, will be novice chasing next season according to Tizzard after the race.

Two of the three mares, Apple's Shakira and Colin's Sister aren't worth considering. Shakira too young and would have other options, Colin's Sister clearly held and not up to this grade in open company.

Apple's Jade if I KNEW the target and it was a definite target would be on the shortlist. Certainly not a backable price to take the chance, but I don't believe her true running would have her behind Midnight Tour. However, she's been to the festival three times and only won once of the three which would also need a bit of examining.

Next Destination was eye-catching in the Ballymore... I have no idea if he's going novice chasing or not... if not, I'd be keen to have him onside at 20/1. Nothing else in the Ballymore has given me any reason to think they'd be in the Stayers with a meaningful chase.

Same comment applies to the Albert Bartlett because the winner goes chasing, I'm not sure of the plan for Ok Corral but he isn't quoted yet. 3rd placed Santini will be novice chasing.

Ballyward is a possible because he was lightly raced and owned by Wylie who does like a runner in the Stayers but no idea what the plan in.

The other four I haven't mentioned yet (Penhill, Supasundae, Sam Spinner, Wholestoner) all ran in the Stayers hurdle this year. Supasundae is a possible to go novice chasing... if he didn't 14/1 is interesting as better ground would perhaps see him in better light. I'd need to KNOW he wasn't going chasing but I would back this e/w if not (let me know if anyone has seen the plan).
Sam Spinner and Wholestone give me absolutely no reasons that they'd improve next year to the standard required to win this race...

....which is why PENHILL at 8/1 is a SUPERB price

The positives for me:

1. Two time festival winner
2. Two time course and distance winner
3. Won at the festival on Good
4. Won at the festival on Soft
5. Trained by Willie Mullins is a plus (won the last two renewals)
6. Three from Four over 3miles (the defeat a 2nd to another festival winner in Champagne Classic)
7. Would suit Ruby Walsh's riding style, he's amazing at cruising through beaten horses (NC last year)
8. If for whatever reason Ruby wasn't on, Paul Townend is unbeaten on him and has given him two no-nonsense rides at Cheltenham
9. Easy to ride...likes to be out the back, widest of all, probably travelled further than any other horse in the race and stayed on strongest
10. Trainer wants to win the race again...
Mullins said: "It's fantastic for connections. I want to put him away now for Cheltenham next year.
"He's not suited to training to the Flat and he's able to do this job so well."

The negatives:

1. He might get injured
An obvious concern as with any antepost bet. Knowing he can win from a huge layoff, first time out though makes that less of a concern for me, as he should be trained for 1 day in mind, Quevega style

2. Owner might force a flat campaign
A slight concern too, however you'd hope he listens to the best trainer in the world who advises that he isn't suited to training for the flat

3. He got beaten by a handicapper at Punchestown
Could be a negative, however Champagne Classic that beat him had also won at the festival and hasn't run since, so no idea how good he is. What I would say though is that he still came 2nd and had Presenting Percy, Monalee, Al Boum Photo and Moulin A Vent all behind him that day and they'll all won this season so it isn't a bad defeat by any stretch

I can't see any other negatives at all.

8/1 I believe to be excellent value even at this stage. It is only available in two places, 7s 6s and 5s are all available and I will be chipping away until he gets to less than 4/1.
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Since the opening post back in March :highly_amused:

Samcro has entered the market at 10/1 - Target not certain and no proof he stays yuet, although if you KNEW he'd be running you'd have to have a serious look at him.

Faugheen - Entered calculations by beating Penhill (which I didn't see coming at the time) but is best price 12/1 and not an ante post prospect unless you don't like money. NRNB contender if the price is right!

Thistlecrack 25/1 - would obviously appeal if he was running, but Tizzard won't run him I wouldn't expect. Big enouhg price for some to take a gamble on probably.

33/1 Cracking Smart - Didn't mention in the opening post as wasn't quoted as it seemed he was going chasing, but he's of interest.


however.... .... PENHILL is still 7/1 - STILL a SUPERB price



What a boring division :highly_amused: - One of the negatives has gone (the potential flat campaign) although another arose, which was that he was beaten by Faugheen.
 
I definitely want to get him in the book Kev but with a limited amount of funds (and free bets) to invest each week, the fact that he ain't going to be out anytime soon (may go straight there again), means there are always more pressing punts to be had. Can see it getting to February when I suddenly remember I still haven't backed him.
 
Redzonebet boosted Penhill 8/1 if you want it in the book.
 
Top Notch entered in Long WAlk next week, has henderson said he's hurdling this season ?
Interesting entries from Henderson also with Soul Emotion and Call me Lord
 
quevega said:
Top Notch entered in Long WAlk next week, has henderson said he's hurdling this season ?
Interesting entries from Henderson also with Soul Emotion and Call me Lord
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He always has a pipe opener. Ryanair.
 
quevega said:
Top Notch entered in Long WAlk next week, has henderson said he's hurdling this season ?
Interesting entries from Henderson also with Soul Emotion and Call me Lord
Click to expand...

Yeah Top Notch will just be a cobweb blower I suspect. Call Me Lord will likely be number 1 for the Stayers' this season.
 
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