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To Win 'Any Race' 2019

most of my post appears to be missing.
Not suggesting you were attempting to mislead anyone, but your original post mentioned Good ground and not ground with good in the description. Some may have took it at face value, especially coming from you. It also left off the 4th place from last season on goodtosoft
Three of those races you've listed were good to soft, so anyone wanting to produce alternative stats about it preferring soft in the going could own those also.
My main issue is I cannot support the assumption that the horse will improve for good ground as I believe it's form last year was as much down to the rise in class as anything, and connections mentioned the ground as most do, as a form of excuse for it not being the next Big Bucks.
In it's novice season it performed equally well on soft as good, statistically, if not better.
So essentially there are two sides to the story.
I'm taking one side and keeping my money in my pocket with this horse.

Imagine a horse winning 6 on the bounce on good ground and being rated say 140.
Then the owners get ambitious and enter it in grade ones. It runs 6 times in grade ones against horses rated 160ish but on soft ground, and finishes last every time, each time the owners say it didn't like the ground.
It might not just be the ground that explains world's form last year is all I'm saying, and so for it to have gone up from 149 to 155 is also a negative, from a well handicapped point of view
 
And 2 out in the albert bartlett is a long way from home.
From memory I reckon around a dozen horses were within a length or two jumping that fence and penhill was cruising and got hampered.
By the time they jumped the last, Penhill, wholestone and monalee were 10 lengths clear of the rest.
seen similar in many editions of this race also.
 
I looked at backing TWE also last night. But decided not to, solely on the basis of being so ground dependent and he may not be good enough anyway.

However, I certainly see the other point of view and understand why people have taken a view and pulled the trigger.
 
quevega said:
most of my post appears to be missing.
Not suggesting you were attempting to mislead anyone, but your original post mentioned Good ground and not ground with good in the description. Some may have took it at face value, especially coming from you. It also left off the 4th place from last season on goodtosoft
Three of those races you've listed were good to soft, so anyone wanting to produce alternative stats about it preferring soft in the going could own those also.
My main issue is I cannot support the assumption that the horse will improve for good ground as I believe it's form last year was as much down to the rise in class as anything, and connections mentioned the ground as most do, as a form of excuse for it not being the next Big Bucks.
In it's novice season it performed equally well on soft as good, statistically, if not better.
So essentially there are two sides to the story.
I'm taking one side and keeping my money in my pocket with this horse.

Imagine a horse winning 6 on the bounce on good ground and being rated say 140.
Then the owners get ambitious and enter it in grade ones. It runs 6 times in grade ones against horses rated 160ish but on soft ground, and finishes last every time, each time the owners say it didn't like the ground.
It might not just be the ground that explains world's form last year is all I'm saying, and so for it to have gone up from 149 to 155 is also a negative, from a well handicapped point of view
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Quevega, I apologise, I have just re-read it all and can see exactly what you are saying - and should have done that before replying whilst at work.

I wrote the post last night and clearly made a mistake... I didn't include the 4th in the Long Walk Hurdle the year after, and agree with what you've said above in response, it clearly could enable you to create alternative stats.

Not suggesting you were attempting to mislead anyone, but
Click to expand...
Next time I make a mistake, and there will be plenty, feel free to ask me directly about it though, rather than assume I'm trying to mid-lead, or use poetic licence... I didn't appreciate the side-swipe.
 
Well that's certainly got people talking! :p

He's not a horse (The Worlds End this is) I would have expected everyone to follow in having put him up. Can certainly see an argument against and there was some reservation myself before placing the bet. Although ideally choosing horses that aren't ground dependant i'm presuming we get 'normal' festival conditions next March and not a repeat of last season. Could well be wrong and maybe it's best to just leave any such horse alone but i'm more inclined to presume the ground will not be an issue for him.

Like I said I had the Ultima in mind for him as soon as I watched the race yesterday. Much will probably depend on how highly rated he is after that run. Though I can't imagine it will be anymore than 150 myself max...

Ballyoptic won very impressively at Exeter first time out last season beating Elegant Escape and Barney Dwan. I don't expect TWE's victory to be classed in that manner but Ballyoptic got upped to 155 after that run, and 3 runs later having been upped in grade got down to 150. Black Corton won 5 novice chases including a Kauto Star and a Reynoldstown and still went into the RSA off 155. Elegant Escape went into the RSA with a rating of 153 with form very closely matching the above horses.

Come March, I do struggle to see his chase mark at 155 or higher (i.e his hurdles mark) I really do. I mean even Monalee, who had just won one of the best Flogas Novice Chases I'm aware of came into the RSA at 155. Obviously the key difference with TWE is he had the extra season over hurdles in open company to build up his hurdles mark unlike the others but it still shows it's very hard to get such a mark novice chasing. Look at More of That - he beat Annie Power in a World Hurdle and peaked at 169 over hurdles...he went into the RSA a 6/4 fav with a mark of 154!

Santini, Topofthegame, Black Op, Lostintranslation, On The Blind Side - hard to see how he won't line up against one or a few of these at some point this season. He's either going to be up to that grade and deserve his place in the RSA or be beaten and have his sights set lower.

So anything around the 150 mark, as I highlighted a few posts back is no hinderence in this race

Might seem silly thinking about a handicap right now but it's one of the few handicaps which like the other handicap on day 1 is so compressed and always improving in quality that it's not far off the main novice races now so i'll be looking at horses like The Worlds End who start the season with higher targets in mind, aka Coo Star Sivola and Un Temps Pour Tout (novice year) the last 2 winners.

For what it's worth I can easily see a scenario play out where the horse ends up around the 149-150 mark in the Ultima. 'Normal' good to soft ground on the Tuesday, sound jumper, no issue with the trip, decent(ish) course form and a novice who is X pounds lower than his hurdles mark...simple.
Single figure fav :cool:

The fact you have the RSA which probably will be the hope right now or the 4 miler (where a high OR is a huge advantage and actually is imo a bigger factor than jockey booking nowadays) as another option to the race I have earmarked - to me he looks to have options whichever way he progresses through the season, hence the appeal at 25 any race. I saw enough promise in that first run with his round of jumping to make me think he'll have a chance come March.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Quevega, I apologise, I have just re-read it all and can see exactly what you are saying - and should have done that before replying whilst at work.

I wrote the post last night and clearly made a mistake... I didn't include the 4th in the Long Walk Hurdle the year after, and agree with what you've said above in response, it clearly could enable you to create alternative stats.


Next time I make a mistake, and there will be plenty, feel free to ask me directly about it though, rather than assume I'm trying to mid-lead, or use poetic licence... I didn't appreciate the side-swipe.
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Apologies here too, didn't mean for a minute to have a dig mate. Just a little clumsy of me,
Glad you can see I was simply putting a counter argument of the horses form.
It's one of my bug bears with trainers saying their horse needs good ground that many punters tend to latch onto.
The truth is all horses run faster on better ground, .and few are truly ground dependent, unless you're talking about extremes like firm and heavy.
It's similar to when a horse finishes second in the derby but in front of 18 other horses and connections say he didn't stay.
That bugs me as well.
 
jono said:
Well that's certainly got people talking! :p

He's not a horse (The Worlds End this is) I would have expected everyone to follow in having put him up. Can certainly see an argument against and there was some reservation myself before placing the bet. Although ideally choosing horses that aren't ground dependant i'm presuming we get 'normal' festival conditions next March and not a repeat of last season. Could well be wrong and maybe it's best to just leave any such horse alone but i'm more inclined to presume the ground will not be an issue for him.

Like I said I had the Ultima in mind for him as soon as I watched the race yesterday. Much will probably depend on how highly rated he is after that run. Though I can't imagine it will be anymore than 150 myself max...

Ballyoptic won very impressively at Exeter first time out last season beating Elegant Escape and Barney Dwan. I don't expect TWE's victory to be classed in that manner but Ballyoptic got upped to 155 after that run, and 3 runs later having been upped in grade got down to 150. Black Corton won 5 novice chases including a Kauto Star and a Reynoldstown and still went into the RSA off 155. Elegant Escape went into the RSA with a rating of 153 with form very closely matching the above horses.

Come March, I do struggle to see his chase mark at 155 or higher (i.e his hurdles mark) I really do. I mean even Monalee, who had just won one of the best Flogas Novice Chases I'm aware of came into the RSA at 155. Obviously the key difference with TWE is he had the extra season over hurdles in open company to build up his hurdles mark unlike the others but it still shows it's very hard to get such a mark novice chasing. Look at More of That - he beat Annie Power in a World Hurdle and peaked at 169 over hurdles...he went into the RSA a 6/4 fav with a mark of 154!

Santini, Topofthegame, Black Op, Lostintranslation, On The Blind Side - hard to see how he won't line up against one or a few of these at some point this season. He's either going to be up to that grade and deserve his place in the RSA or be beaten and have his sights set lower.

So anything around the 150 mark, as I highlighted a few posts back is no hinderence in this race

Might seem silly thinking about a handicap right now but it's one of the few handicaps which like the other handicap on day 1 is so compressed and always improving in quality that it's not far off the main novice races now so i'll be looking at horses like The Worlds End who start the season with higher targets in mind, aka Coo Star Sivola and Un Temps Pour Tout (novice year) the last 2 winners.

For what it's worth I can easily see a scenario play out where the horse ends up around the 149-150 mark in the Ultima. 'Normal' good to soft ground on the Tuesday, sound jumper, no issue with the trip, decent(ish) course form and a novice who is X pounds lower than his hurdles mark...simple.
Single figure fav :cool:

The fact you have the RSA which probably will be the hope right now or the 4 miler (where a high OR is a huge advantage and actually is imo a bigger factor than jockey booking nowadays) as another option to the race I have earmarked - to me he looks to have options whichever way he progresses through the season, hence the appeal at 25 any race. I saw enough promise in that first run with his round of jumping to make me think he'll have a chance come March.
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There is definitely a chance that he turns up at the festival on an attractive mark and I'd consider him off a mark around 150 like you mentioned. But he would probably have had one or two iffy runs to excuse for this to happen. If he beats a higher rated horse or two then that would be tricky and I think he will struggle to win the top novice chases. I think you're right that if he turned up in a festival handicap he could go off single figures, but theres as good a chance that he's available NRNB at 20s 25s in february.

The reason I mentioned his hurdle mark is as far as i understand it. the british handicapper uses that as a starting point. irish handciapper starts from scratch.
So if he was entered in a chase handicap tomorrow he'd be given 155, unless handicapper has dropped him after his win the other day.
So it will depend on who he comes up against and how he performs, like you've said.

we've probably done the worlds end to death for now, and i'm one to blame.
He'll probably have pulled up lame in a couple of weeks and be out for the year
 
Delta Work declared tomorrow with Davy Russell on board even though Chris Jones has a runner in the race.
 
For anyone interested Annamix 9/1 with Skybet for supreme but 10/1 Any Race with same firm!
 
I’ve just gone in on The Storyteller in this market at 18/1 (boosted with Ladbrokes). I think he wins the Coral Cup!

Two important reasons behind this bet:
- A festival winner already, GE will surely want him to be part of his squad again this year
- I believe Gordon will have him in the race he has the best chance of winning which means he will not go off anywhere near 18/1 because either:

a) He’ll be running in the Ryanair after having proved himself good enough in this sphere by winning something like the John Durkan. If he does so, he becomes one of the favourites for the Ryanair being a C&D winner and Grade 1 performer.
b) He’ll be running in the Coral Cup after not quite proving himself in the big league over fences. If this happens he becomes one of the hot pots of the festival and goes off at 4/1.

GE in his stable tour: “Don’t be surprised if he ends up back over hurdles, as he looks well-handicapped and could have a big one in him.”

I just can’t imagine there’s anywhere he’d rather exploit that mark than at the Festival.
 
Yeah completely with you on this one VF.

One of my only bets under 20/1 that I mentioned yesterday! The hurdles comment was a huge light bulb during his stable tour. Hoping no one alfa for a coral cup price. They mentioned him on a podcast last week too (on the hunt I think) ...

Good bet imo
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah completely with you on this one VF.

One of my only bets under 20/1 that I mentioned yesterday! The hurdles comment was a huge light bulb during his stable tour. Hoping no one alfa for a coral cup price. They mentioned him on a podcast last week too (on the hunt I think) ...

Good bet imo
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I get the bet completely. However I don't think it's such a good bet personally. He'll have atleast a couple of runs over fences at the very top grade which is very unlikely he'll win. So he'll prob drift in that market as not everyone's on the ball of what else he could go for. Also he could switch at the Dublin racing festival where there's also big handicap hurdle pots worth winning and do his mark over hurdles
 
Scooby91 said:
I get the bet completely. However I don't think it's such a good bet personally. He'll have atleast a couple of runs over fences at the very top grade which is very unlikely he'll win. So he'll prob drift in that market as not everyone's on the ball of what else he could go for. Also he could switch at the Dublin racing festival where there's also big handicap hurdle pots worth winning and do his mark over hurdles
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I'll be staggered if he's ever a bigger price than 18/1 any race.

The hope is obviously that a NRNB price for the Coral appears at 25/1 or something like that.

I think he'd be a shorter price if he ran in the Ryanair too on the day.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'll be staggered if he's ever a bigger price than 18/1 any race.

The hope is obviously that a NRNB price for the Coral appears at 25/1 or something like that.

I think he'd be a shorter price if he ran in the Ryanair too on the day.
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I genuinely think he'll drift. Maybe I'm being hopeful
 
Well I hope you're right.
 
Didn’t know where to put this but Hills have a ‘To Remain Unbeaten In The 2018/19 UK & Irish National Hunt Season’ market

Altior 4/1
Footpad 7/1
Buveur d’air 7/1
Laurina 10/1

Going in on Altior
 
charlie said:
Didn’t know where to put this but Hills have a ‘To Remain Unbeaten In The 2018/19 UK & Irish National Hunt Season’ market

Altior 4/1
Footpad 7/1
Buveur d’air 7/1
Laurina 10/1

Going in on Altior
Click to expand...

What's the rules ?
How many times do they have to run ?
 
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