Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

My reasoning behind backing royal rendezvous.

Ruby Walsh said: "Jumping has brought a bit of improvement from his bumpers; he looked a bit quicker today than he did in bumpers. He settled reasonably well.

"Today's ground isn't usual Galway ground in October and it's nearly good ground; it's barely slow."

After race at Tipperary Sun, 7th Oct, 2018 (1st) We were very disappointed in Galway when he just ran a bit keen and the atmosphere probably got to him a bit too. We put the hood on him and it has helped him to relax. Sometimes horses that work so well at home need their first run back but I think he is a horse with a high cruising speed and I hope to get a third bumper out of him. He could also go jumping so we'll have to sit down and argue that one!. Last season he had a setback when he had been doing good work but is back now and he has stood up to three runs. They have done a fantastic job with the ground here and deserve an awful lot of credit. W P Mullins

After race at Downpatrick Mon, 27th Aug, 2018 (1st) We got a little messed around at the start in Galway. It didn't go to plan and he ran very keen. Today we decided we would just let him use his stride and let him gallop and that's what we thought he might do in Galway. We think he is a very good horse. I'm not sure whether he'll go for a winners' bumper or he'll go jumping. I think what he shows us at home says he's a good horse, so hopefully onwards and upwards from there. W P Mullins


And I also know that he's very well thought of at home.
I'm in the annamix camp but there's no guarentee any horse makes to the festival so I loke to have a plan b when they're at there biggest prices.

25s 365 rather than 33s elsewhere I'm assuming?

 

[charlie]

20/1 on a horse that dots up in his maiden and goes 9/2 for the supreme with cash out available. Pretty shrewd move I'd think.

I was referring to the wave of money over the last 24 hours taking him from 10's into 8's. I applaud those on at bigger prices

 

[JackieMoon33]

I was referring to the wave of money over the last 24 hours taking him from 10's into 8's. I applaud those on at bigger prices

I’m not sure anyone should be applauded for getting 20’s either as you were right with your original assessment that no one has seen him run properly. Yes it may be a good position to take at 20/1 but it’s not a good bet with regards to skill or knowledge of racing.

I’m interested in people’s opinion - Do you think any professional, full time punters would be going in big on Annamix?

 

[Scooby91]

I’m not sure anyone should be applauded for getting 20’s either as you were right with your original assessment that no one has seen him run properly. Yes it may be a good position to take at 20/1 but it’s not a good bet with regards to skill or knowledge of racing.

I’m interested in people’s opinion - Do you think any professional, full time punters would be going in big on Annamix?

Myself ....

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m not sure anyone should be applauded for getting 20’s either as you were right with your original assessment that no one has seen him run properly. Yes it may be a good position to take at 20/1 but it’s not a good bet with regards to skill or knowledge of racing.

I’m interested in people’s opinion - Do you think any professional, full time punters would be going in big on Annamix?

Yes.

Mullins’ comments and the way he knows how to prime his best Novices for the race, combined with the fact he rates Annamix so highly are two big positives. Add to that so many dissapoinments at this stage of the season from market rivals Annamix begins to look like a very solid favourite.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Myself ....

You earn a living from betting?

 

[somer1]

Annamix was the 1st horses i hit into for nexts years fest.On at 20s in singles,doubles and trixies

 

[Scooby91]

You earn a living from betting?

I do. Not a huge luxurious life style. But comfortably get by.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Yes.

Mullins’ comments and the way he knows how to prime his best Novices for the race, combined with the fact he rates Annamix so highly are two big positives. Add to that so many dissapoinments at this stage of the season from market rivals Annamix begins to look like a very solid favourite.

I know a couple of guys who are full time and they barely touch ante post as the risk versus reward is too great when you factor in injury along with everything else. That’s not to say that’s the right approach but if I was relying on a living from betting, I can see their point especially when you’re tying up large amounts of money for a long period of time.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I know a couple of guys who are full time and they barely touch ante post as the risk versus reward is too great when you factor in injury along with everything else. That’s not to say that’s the right approach but if I was relying on a living from betting, I can see their point especially when you’re tying up large amounts of money for a long period of time.

I make a lot more money over a year antepost than I do betting on the day.

One for Arthur at 40/1 for the National being the biggest example of that. Paid for a large amount of that years umps season for me.

 

[jono]

Have to say, i'm pretty staggered by the support and stance on Annamix on the forum, just in this thread and also seeing how well he is backed in thistlecrackers most backed / profit thread.

Now before i say this I am on the horse at 20/1 for 1.5pts and he is also in a 3 or 4 multiples but for me he's quite far behind in terms of biggest winner and also how highly I view his chance here...

Without sounding like a dig - can I ask the reasons why he is so fancied? As we have nothing but hype to judge him on? Literally the bare minimum bar good snippets talk from connections. Don't get me wrong I absolutely take these onboard - some don't but for me you have to consider what the likes of Mullins and Walsh say just because of the ammo and horses they have been associated with over the seasons.

Again, this isn't meant to be a dig or calling out people. If anything I want to see if i'm missing something!!

Is it a combination of the positive vibes and the fact that so far he looks the standout horse? (more on this below..)

I view this forum up there with the very best opinions on horse racing, far better than a host of mainstream or publicised views. I'd expect plenty of people to want to pile into the Mullins/Walsh/Ricci combo purely for that reason but not on here. So I'm assuming there's more basis to it it...? Would love to hear a bit more detail on why the forumers who have a strong view on him and have backed accordingly fancy him so much?

And on that point on it looking a poor market which i've seen a view times now

In regards to it looking like a poor Supreme...surely not only is it far too early to think this but of all years, this year is the one where we can't judge how the race is shaping up until much much later than normal with the dryer conditions?
Markets almost always often look very different as the year progresses and I think this year could do even more so.

If you took the last 3 years in the Supreme and the placed horses and the 'top 3' (mullins / henderson / elliott main horse) and what they achieved and what price they were for this race at this stage this season

2018
1st - Summerville Boy
2nd - Kalashnikov
3rd - Mengli Khan Elliott / Kennedy
---
(5th - Claimintakakinforgan Henderson / deBoinville)
(11th - Getabird Mullins / Walsh)

Summerville Boy
21st Oct - Stratford 2nd/9
19th Nov - Cheltenham 2nd/5
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON -unsure but Slate House, the winner at Cheltenham in Nov was still 20/1

Kalshnikov
4th Nov - Wetherby 1st/16
2nd Dec - Doncaster 1st/8
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON - 25/1

Mengli Khan
(15th Jan - Fairyhouse 2nd/16)
(25th Feb - Fairyhouse 4th/9)
23rd Sep - Navan 1st/30
12th Nov - Navan 1st/6
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON - 12/1 (fav?)

Claimintakakinforgan
9th Nov - Newbury 1st/9
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON - 25/1

Getabird
Yet to run

----

2017
1st - Labaik Elliott / Kennedy
2nd - Melon Mullins / Walsh
3rd - River Wylde Henderson / deBoinville

Labaik
13th Oct - Punchestown 1st/9
13th Nov - Navan 1st/5
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON -unsure don't remember ANY mention of him until early Spring (mostly Jamie Codds tip)

Melon
Yet to run but was a hype horse

River Wylde
22nd Oct - Cheltenham 12th/16 BUMPER
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON - not in the betting

----

2016
1st - Altior Henderson / deBoinville
2nd - Min Mullins / Walsh
3rd - Buveur D'Air Henderson / Fehily
---
(4th - Tombstone Elliott / Cooper)

Altior
10th Oct - Chepstow 1st/10
31st Oct - Ascot 1st/9
15th Nov - Cheltenham 1st/5
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON - 20/1

Min
Yet to run but was a hype horse

Buveur D'Air
Yet to run

Tombstone
30th Oct - Down Royal 1st/11 BUMPER
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON - not in the betting



For me the key things to take out of it:

- Mullins horse unlikely to have been seen on the track yet. Whilst it's clear Annamix is THE hype horse now, he's had few of his horse out as he never does and that may be even longer with the weather.

- Henderson - look for his runners at the Newbury winter festival meeting in novice/maiden hurdles. Buevur D'Air ran there, as did Jenkins who at the time was the hype horse. Other good types in My Tent Or Yours, L'Ami Serge) and then secondly at Kempton on Boxing Day. Whilst right now I couldn't name a strong Supreme horse with imo Mister Fisher underwhelming, Pym even more and the rest of his novice hurdlers being more staying types, some could come through unknown.

To summarise the 12 horses above:

- 2 horses had ran in a bumper in their seasonal debut and weren't in the betting
- 3 Mullins runners had yet to run (nor had Douvan or Vautour yet) nor did Buveur D'Air
- Of the runners only Mengli Khan was at the top of the market at 12/1 (i think fav). The other horses had odds of at least 20/1 inc Altior


Think it's pretty crazy to be taking a view of how strong this race is already.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I make a lot more money over a year antepost than I do betting on the day.

One for Arthur at 40/1 for the National being the biggest example of that. Paid for a large amount of that years umps season for me.

Are you full time too?

 

[Kevloaf]

Haha jono ruffling feathers like a flirty fox in a chicken coup.

I'll have my two pennies in very early on... I have 2.5 pts on Annamix for the Supreme, but decided because he was THE hype horse, he'd be one I'd build up a nice return on with free bets where I could. (currently 92.5 pts return for 2.5 pts real money stake).

I therefore hope he IS THE ONE - but have not put my 'actual money' where my mouth is, because on the whole, I agree, we cannot KNOW where we stand yet.


I do think the angle to trade out is a huge part though that not everybody uses effectively. For all that we can say Annamix is TOO SHORT, we all knew he'd be 'too short' because of the hype around him. We had a similar debate last year with Samcro before he went novice hurdling which is a different case but some of the same points will come up.

 

[charlie]

Good post Jono, I am equally perplexed. Quite a few on here have backed him at 20's+ with a view to laying off after a debut win and an inevitably short price. Decent play IMO. Other than that, it is people taking Mullins and Riccis confidence, nothing more. Fear of loss is a powerful motivator in general

 

[Scooby91]

Have to say, i'm pretty staggered by the support and stance on Annamix on the forum, just in this thread and also seeing how well he is backed in thistlecrackers most backed / profit thread.

Now before i say this I am on the horse at 20/1 for 1.5pts and he is also in a 3 or 4 multiples but for me he's quite far behind in terms of biggest winner and also how highly I view his chance here...

Without sounding like a dig - can I ask the reasons why he is so fancied? As we have nothing but hype to judge him on? Literally the bare minimum bar good snippets talk from connections. Don't get me wrong I absolutely take these onboard - some don't but for me you have to consider what the likes of Mullins and Walsh say just because of the ammo and horses they have been associated with over the seasons.

Again, this isn't meant to be a dig or calling out people. If anything I want to see if i'm missing something!!

Is it a combination of the positive vibes and the fact that so far he looks the standout horse? (more on this below..)

I view this forum up there with the very best opinions on horse racing, far better than a host of mainstream or publicised views. I'd expect plenty of people to want to pile into the Mullins/Walsh/Ricci combo purely for that reason but not on here. So I'm assuming there's more basis to it it...? Would love to hear a bit more detail on why the forumers who have a strong view on him and have backed accordingly fancy him so much?

And on that point on it looking a poor market which i've seen a view times now

In regards to it looking like a poor Supreme...surely not only is it far too early to think this but of all years, this year is the one where we can't judge how the race is shaping up until much much later than normal with the dryer conditions?
Markets almost always often look very different as the year progresses and I think this year could do even more so.

If you took the last 3 years in the Supreme and the placed horses and the 'top 3' (mullins / henderson / elliott main horse) and what they achieved and what price they were for this race at this stage this season

2018
1st - Summerville Boy
2nd - Kalashnikov
3rd - Mengli Khan Elliott / Kennedy
---
(5th - Claimintakakinforgan Henderson / deBoinville)
(11th - Getabird Mullins / Walsh)

Summerville Boy
21st Oct - Stratford 2nd/9
19th Nov - Cheltenham 2nd/5
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON -unsure but Slate House, the winner at Cheltenham in Nov was still 20/1

Kalshnikov
4th Nov - Wetherby 1st/16
2nd Dec - Doncaster 1st/8
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON - 25/1

Mengli Khan
(15th Jan - Fairyhouse 2nd/16)
(25th Feb - Fairyhouse 4th/9)
23rd Sep - Navan 1st/30
12th Nov - Navan 1st/6
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON - 12/1 (fav?)

Claimintakakinforgan
9th Nov - Newbury 1st/9
AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON - 25/1

Getabird
Yet to run

----

2017
1st - Labaik Elliott / Kennedy
2nd - Melon Mullins / Walsh
3rd - River Wylde Henderson / deBoinville

Labaik
13th Oct - Punchestown 1st/9
13th Nov - Navan 1st/5
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON -unsure don't remember ANY mention of him until early Spring (mostly Jamie Codds tip)

Melon
Yet to run but was a hype horse

River Wylde
22nd Oct - Cheltenham 12th/16 BUMPER
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON - not in the betting

----

2016
1st - Altior Henderson / deBoinville
2nd - Min Mullins / Walsh
3rd - Buveur D'Air Henderson / Fehily
---
(4th - Tombstone Elliott / Cooper)

Altior
10th Oct - Chepstow 1st/10
31st Oct - Ascot 1st/9
15th Nov - Cheltenham 1st/5
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON - 20/1

Min
Yet to run but was a hype horse

Buveur D'Air
Yet to run

Tombstone
30th Oct - Down Royal 1st/11 BUMPER
AT THIS POINT THAT SEASON - not in the betting



For me the key things to take out of it:

- Mullins horse unlikely to have been seen on the track yet. Whilst it's clear Annamix is THE hype horse now, he's had few of his horse out as he never does and that may be even longer with the weather.

- Henderson - look for his runners at the Newbury winter festival meeting in novice/maiden hurdles. Buevur D'Air ran there, as did Jenkins who at the time was the hype horse. Other good types in My Tent Or Yours, L'Ami Serge) and then secondly at Kempton on Boxing Day. Whilst right now I couldn't name a strong Supreme horse with imo Mister Fisher underwhelming, Pym even more and the rest of his novice hurdlers being more staying types, some could come through unknown.

To summarise the 12 horses above:

- 2 horses had ran in a bumper in their seasonal debut and weren't in the betting
- 3 Mullins runners had yet to run (nor had Douvan or Vautour yet) nor did Buveur D'Air
- Of the runners only Mengli Khan was at the top of the market at 12/1 (i think fav). The other horses had odds of at least 20/1 inc Altior


Think it's pretty crazy to be taking a view of how strong this race is already.

Connections, where he came from (maccaire )
JC and ricci have confirmed he was there best novice last year, they had the fav in getabird. I can see what they've bought for this year and I find that quite revealing As to where they are with annamix. Mullins and ruby have confirmed his work.

No brainer for cash out / lay off a little to cover stake if your so inclined .

You know when your backing him at 20s for certain that bar injury he'll never be bigger than 20s after 1 run. Even if he lost you can get your cash back

 

[opatcho]

For me, there's more reasons to lay Annamix at this point than to back it!

Hasn't even ran and already backed into 10/1 in placed. CRAZY!

For me, I'm looking for a novice that has some experience whilst having scope for improvement, and looking at the winners from previous years it pays to look at those who have ran 4 times (give or take) over osbecotles


Champagne Fever - 4 hurdle runs
Vautour - 3 Fr hurdles + 2 Irs hurdle = 5 Hurdle runs
Douvan - Fr Flat - 2 Fr flats + 2 hurdles in Ire - 4 hurdle runs
Altior - 4 hurdles
Labaik - entered in 6, ran in 3 hurdles
Summerville Boy - 4 hurdles

I have to admit, nothing has set me alight so far this season, but I'm not rushing in to back a novice who has shown absolutely nothing to date

Can see Annamix has a entry on 2nd December, lets just say the horse runs here.. how many more times will it run prior to the Supreme

Just think at 10/1, antepost.... I'm going to have to side with Jono on this one!

 

[Scooby91]

For me, there's more reasons to lay Annamix at this point than to back it!

Hasn't even ran and already backed into 10/1 in placed. CRAZY!

For me, I'm looking for a novice that has some experience whilst having scope for improvement, and looking at the winners from previous years it pays to look at those who have ran 4 times (give or take) over osbecotles


Champagne Fever - 4 hurdle runs
Vautour - 3 Fr hurdles + 2 Irs hurdle = 5 Hurdle runs
Douvan - Fr Flat - 2 Fr flats + 2 hurdles in Ire - 4 hurdle runs
Altior - 4 hurdles
Labaik - entered in 6, ran in 3 hurdles
Summerville Boy - 4 hurdles

I have to admit, nothing has set me alight so far this season, but I'm not rushing in to back a novice who has shown absolutely nothing to date

Can see Annamix has a entry on 2nd December, lets just say the horse runs here.. how many more times will it run prior to the Supreme

Just think at 10/1, antepost.... I'm going to have to side with Jono on this one!

He won't run in the royal bond.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I have Annamix covered but it's not a bet that I'll claim as being skilful or knowledgable given the reasons for placing the bet. It will potentially prove to be profitable but does not give me the same satisfaction as using my own two eyes and judgement to find that early season good thing.

 

[Willdunn99]

My view on Annamix is considering Rich Ricci Ruby and willie’s record on this race as soon as i knew this was the hype horse I just faced the fact that at some point I would be persuaded to back him. I couldn’t really wait until the day or nearer to the time to back as the price is only heading one way and I would regret not taking the early price at some point im sure. It’s pretty much lazy betting and the fear of having to take a short price on the day if he does turn out to be a good one. I accepted the fact I would cave into the hype and back at some point, so may as well jump on the EW 20/1 price. I don’t regret it either with the cash out option on 365 and chucking free bets at it I know I don’t have to throw money at him later along the line at a rubbish price. Like I said lazy betting but it just makes sense to me some how.

 

[JackieMoon33]

My view on Annamix is considering Rich Ricci Ruby and willie’s record on this race as soon as i knew this was the hype horse I just faced the fact that at some point I would be persuaded to back him. I couldn’t really wait until the day or nearer to the time to back as the price is only heading one way and I would regret not taking the early price at some point im sure. It’s pretty much lazy betting and the fear of having to take a short price on the day if he does turn out to be a good one. I accepted the fact I would cave into the hype and back at some point, so may as well jump on the EW 20/1 price. I don’t regret it either with the cash out option on 365 and chucking free bets at it I know I don’t have to throw money at him later along the line at a rubbish price. Like I said lazy betting but it just makes sense to me some how.

I agree with this completely