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Aintree Day 1

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  • Aintree Day 1

    My selections so far

    Manifesto Novice chase
    The Shunter

    I dont think this looks a very strong grade 1 at all, and I am happy to give the shunter a chance out of handicap company. Haven't backed him yet so this will be price dependant.

    Betway Bowl
    Mister Fisher e/w 10/1 (AP)

    Think Clan is opposable going left handed, Tiger is opposable over normal fences, Waiting Patiently never wins these days, Native River would prefer softer ground and a stiffer track.

    So sided with the younger horse e/w hoping he can get into a better jumping rhythm over 3 miles, though I'm worried about how hard a race the ryanair was but the double figures tempted me in.

    Aintree Hurdle
    Mcfabulous 7/2 (AP)

    Horse hated Fontwell, didnt look happy from some way out going around such a tight track, back at a proper track I expect him to be back to his best and have had him pencilled in as the winner of this race all season.

    Brewinupastorm looks the main danger but I'm hopeful he will reverse the form.

    Red Rum handicap
    Zanza e/w 10/1 (AP)

    If staying on his feet, on a line though sky pirate and ibleo he is very very well handicapped.

    Any day 1 fancies for you guys?

  • #2
    Manifesto Novices Chase - The Shunter @ 5/1
    Doom Bar Juvenile Hurdle - Adagio @ 11/4
    Betway Bowl - Tiger Roll @ 4/1
    Aintree Hurdle - Abacadabras @ 4/1
    Hunters' Chase - Bishops Road @ 66/1
    Red Rum Handicap Chase - Zanza (NAP) @ 14/1 & 12/1
    Mares NHFR - Eileendover @ 5/4






    Comment


    • #3
      Joining you on 5/1 with the shunter charlie

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
        Joining you on 5/1 with the shunter charlie
        I have never actually backed The Shunter before, but I was very impressed at Cheltenham. It's quite a hard race to weigh up - my guess is the 'saved for Aintree' horses will be over bet in Hitman & Protektorat, but I don't like either. Hitman hasn't done anything to deserve being as short as 7/2 IMO, and Protektorat has been losing at short odds on and is post wind op. I'd have him @ 9/1 vs Hitman any day of the week, but neither appeal to me. Fusil is just one of those horses I cant find any love for and at 9/4 I can pass him by. Tizzard is still in abysmal form so I couldn't have Eldorado Allen who had a tough race in behind Shishkin, then you have The Shunter. 5/1 seemed very fair. Tough horses that enjoy their winning are hard to find and he's in banging form and easily a 150's+ horse.

        Comment


        • #5
          Its a race full of horses i don't like its a grade 2 in quality

          And I was really taken by the way the shunter travelled in the plate

          Comment


          • #6
            ....Not so Sleepy had some good horses behind in the CH & I think is a little under the radar at a big price in Aintree Hurdle.

            Gone for a few in the Foxhunters:
            Dashing Perk - Newland has a decent record in this & I read he was keen to pursue this route.
            Frederici - Cliff horse
            More Bucks - Mickey Bowen did me a favour in this when Dineur finished 2nd @ 50-1 & then won @ 20-1. More Bucks is 100-1, I couldn’t resist a little interest.
            Last edited by Eggs; 6 April 2021, 12:47 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Some interesting races on Thursday. Early fancies would be Sametegal in the Hunters with Will Biddick on board and Dostal Phil in the Red Rum. Already backed Zanza e/w and will add Sully D'oc when we get the extra places.

              I'll probably add The Shunter today as the first race is pretty weak but need to have a proper look.

              Song for Someone should run a big race in the Aintree Hurdle, but one I'll wait to see the ground conditions.

              Comment


              • #8
                Agree on sametagal his experience over the fences makes him very interesting

                As does his beating of Porlock bay

                will back him if one of my others comes in beforehand

                Comment


                • #9
                  I have taken a look at the horses that placed and whether they ran at Cheltenham or not over the past 3 runnings at Aintree, I did similar for trials day before we lost it and know some people find it useful so thought I'd share this again if it may be of use for some people!

                  Manifesto 2m 4f Nov Chase
                  2017
                  1st - Flying Angel - 6th JLT
                  2nd - Cloudy Dream - 2nd Arkle
                  3rd - Top Notch - 2nd JLT

                  2018
                  1st - Finian's Oscar - 5th JLT
                  2nd - Rene's Oscar - No Fest Run
                  3rd - Calino D'airy - No Fest Run

                  2019
                  1st - Kalashnikov - UR Arkle
                  2nd - La Baue Au Roi - No Fest Run
                  3rd - Mengli Khan - 3rd JLT

                  No shock here that JLT runners come to this, interestingly it seems that those lower placed perform okay, I'm assuming this is probably due to the liklihood of the JLT winners not coming here and potentailly those horse's being better suited by Aintree's flatter nature, but no one in this years field had a poor run at the festival. Fusil is rightly favourite for Thursday based on his 2nd in the Marsh but a couple have stepped up in trip from the arkle and taken 1st & 2nd respectively and that for me may be a big plus for Eldorado Allen who stayed on well for his Arkle 2nd and the form behind Shishkin can only be a plus.

                  Juvenile 2m Hurdle
                  2017
                  1st- Defi Du Seuil - 1st Triumph
                  2nd - Divin Bere - 2nd Boodles
                  3rd - Bedrock - No Fest Run

                  2018
                  1st - We Have A Dream - No Fest Run
                  2nd - Gumball - PU Triumph
                  3rd - Apple's Shakira - 4th Triumph

                  2019
                  1st - Pentland Hills - 1st Triumph
                  2nd - Fakir D'oudairies - 4th Supreme
                  3rd - Christopher Wood - No Fest Run

                  The best juveniles tend to come to the top yet again with Cheltenham form carrying across. This would place Adagio at the top of
                  the pile using that, however Monmiral on raw form has 5L or so on him if you look at their respective results across the season
                  against Nassalam at face value. Either way I would expect the winner to come from them 2.

                  Betway Bowl 3m Chase
                  2017
                  1st - Tea For Two - UR Gold Cup
                  2nd - Cue Card - F Gold Cup
                  3rd - Smad Place - 8th Gold Cup

                  2018
                  1st - Might Bite - 2nd Gold Cup
                  2nd - Bristol De Mai - No Fest Run
                  3rd - Clan Des Obeaux - No Fest Run

                  2019
                  1st - Kemboy - UR Gold Cup
                  2nd - Clan Des Obeaux - 5th Gold Cup
                  3rd - Balko Des Flos - 7th Ryanair

                  Many ways to look at this one but starting with a fact not covered by the top 3 shown above; 2017 & 2019 all runners came from Cheltenham Festival. So it then makes Bristol & Obeaux's runs in 2018 stand out and suggest that those fresh from avoiding the Festival mayhem may be good for this race. This doesn't provide much value in Clan Des Obeaux's case with him being favourite, but Waiting Patiently is another who skipped the festival who may well then be worth a look. Personally I feel he is a touch too skinny as 5s, I've never been a huge fan of his but his run in the King George shows he can get 3m (even if Frodon did lead a merry dance during that) and he had 6L on Clan round Kempton. Much may depend on how much pace is in the race, so maybe on whether Native River can bowl along at the front (shit pun intended). His 4th in the GC does fit the trends of lower in GC, I would loose my mind if he won this but lets be realistic 3m round Aintree on good ground it's all going against him. The really interesting thing that shows here is that you want those who were way off the pace in the Gold Cup that are better suited to Aintree, Aso in theory would be that back with a flatter 3m but his course form is far from inspiring and is priced as he should be. One coming off the back of a disappointing festival for me is Mister Fisher at 9/1. He wasn't jumping too bad early on but Allaho justs killed everyone in that field with his pace and electric jumping which saw the Fish make a few mistakes before leading to being pulled up. He may well be the best e/w bet of those coming from the festival with ground to suit and no Allaho to disrupt the flow, Native may well give him a target to sit behind and if his jumping holds up alongside my favourite warrior then he may go close with a flat 3 miles and will be one I may have to have onside. Tiger Roll obviously doesn't have any past cheese hoppers to compare to but it would be ultimate O'Leary shithousery to win this.

                  Aintree 2m 4f Hurdle
                  2017
                  1st - Buveur D'air - 1st Champion Hurdle
                  2nd - My Tent Or Yours - 2nd Champion Hurdle
                  3rd - The New One - 5th Champion Hurdle

                  2018
                  1st - L'Ami Serge - 8th Stayers Hurdle
                  2nd - Supasundae - 2nd Stayers Hurdle
                  3rd - Clyne - No Fest Run

                  2019
                  1st - Supasundae - 7th Stayers Hurdle
                  2nd - Buveur D'Air - F Champion Hurdle
                  3rd - Ch'tibello - 1st County Hurdle

                  First look theres an interesting record of those coming from the Stayers Hurdle to this race, but it may well be that those horses were better suited by the intermediate trip. There is no one who fits this coming down in trip from the festival but there are a few who come from the fest. Of those Buzz doesnt have the handicap win you would suspect you need to come close here. The best form of the Champion Hurdle sits with Not So Sleepy who for me isn't good enough he seemed to cling on to take his 5th last month and not sure if the step up will help personally, but at a range of 20-33/1 wouldn't knock anyone chancing him e/w in a race where I know 4 places are about. Silver Streak was only just behind him but his one try at this trip hasn't painted him in glory at all. Abacadabras comes off the back of a fall and could well be the classiest horse from Cheltenham for me, which seems to certainly rise to the top in this, with step up in trip setting to suit he should go close.

                  Interestingly a stat again not shown is the one of those who have no festival run. At the moment they are 0/7 for places in the top 3 over the last 3 years. However in all fairness none of those 7 runners have the form lines that some of those bring into this race who skipped March. There are big players that may well break that stat, with McFabulous and Brewin'upastorm clashing again after the laters 5.5L win at Fontwell around 5/6 weeks ago. However McFabulous did concede 6lb that day so that may well make a difference Brewin seems to have renewed life in his hurdling career since coming back from Chasing, with 2 impressive wins. Both horses hold interesting Aintree form with Brewin taking 2nd in Mersey Novices Hurdle in 2019 & McFabulous winning the bumper the same year. The market has them around the same price initially but the younger of the 2 has been more fancied in McFab. As good as these 2 are if anyone cares where I'm looking it will be the other British horse who skipped Chelts for this, Song For Someone. The 9/1 available seems far too big for me for a horse that continues to improve all season and has had this as a long term target since before Christmas. He has plenty of positives which mean I'm willing to forgive his defeat to Goshen in what was quite tough ground.

                  Of those not mentioned Jason The Militant and Buevuer D'Air probably deserve a mention. BDA has proven his form in this and could be too big at 11/1 if he still retains his ability which there certainly were glimpses of at Haydock during his comeback 2nd. Jason has Rachel onboard which will no doubt see casual punters plough into him now they have finally seen how good the Queen of racing is after years of having Bryony touted as the 2nd coming of AP by ITV, but thats a different story. His form is very nice to look at and has him in and around the top of the Irish 2m hurdling division but to be honest his price seems a little skinny being around 5/1 at most places seeing as he tends to be stayed past at the finishing post earlier in the season.

                  Foxhunters Chase 2m 5f
                  *Runners obviously either ran in the festival Foxhunter chase or didn't so position is from Chelts if they did
                  2017
                  1st - Dineur - No Fest Run
                  2nd - Balnaslow - 5th
                  3rd - Big Fella Thanks - No Fest Run
                  4th - Pacha Du Polder - 1st
                  5th - Mendip Express - 9th

                  2018
                  *1st DSQ after so all technically bumped up 1 place
                  1st - Balnaslow - 7th
                  2nd - Bears Affair - No Fest Run
                  3rd - Greensalt - No Fest Run
                  4th - Barrakilla - No Fest Run
                  5th - On The Fringe - 9th

                  2019
                  1st - Top Wood - 3rd
                  2nd - Burning Ambition - No Fest Run
                  3rd - Road To Riches - No Fest Run
                  4th - Coastal Tiep - PU
                  5th - Road To Rome - 4th

                  Looked at top 5 here due to place terms an general field sizes. Bit of a mixed bag, no surprise really as this race if 7f shorter than its Festival counterpart. This suggests
                  that some can come on from the fest to run well, with Billaway the obvious favourite having claims, of the other 3 who ran at cheltenham Latenightpass certainly seems to tick boxes for this with the last 2 horses who were past the post first running respectably at the festival themselves, and him arguably not quite seeing out the distance could be a good e/w alternative to Billaway at 10/1. Only 3 who have placed were under the age of 10 so that may go against the 2 previously mentioned here.7/15 places were to those who skipped the festival so plenty to pick from in this field to fit that. Too many to run through here but the obvious route to go down now we have Amateurs back in the saddle is to focus on the big 3 amateur jocks, here are their form in this race below:

                  Mullins PU
                  Codd PU F PU
                  O'Connor 212

                  Surprisingly Codd has a very poor record last 3 years, and it looks like O'Connor is the king of the national course, with this in mind I will probably be chancing the 25/1 available for his mount of Federici, as horse who is proven to get these fences with a good pilot on board, seems worth a dabble! Caution should be stressed as Federici is likely not quite the levels of his previous rides in this but it certainly seems too big all the same to me.


                  Red Rum 2m Handicap Chase
                  2017
                  1st - Double W's - 9th Brown Plate (down 1lb)
                  2nd - Theinval - 3rd Annual (up 4lb)
                  3rd - Bun Doran - 6th Brown Plate (no change)
                  4th - Yorkist - No Fest Run
                  5th- Romain De Senam - No Fest Run

                  2018
                  1st - Bentelimar - No Fest Run
                  2nd - Theinval - 4th Annual (no change)
                  3rd - Gino Trail - 2nd Annual (up 1lb)
                  4th - Doitforthevillage - 6th Annual (no change)
                  5th - Bun Doran - No Fest Run

                  2019
                  1st - Moon Over Germany - No Fest Run
                  2nd - Lady Buttons - 4th Mares Hurdle
                  3rd - Champagne At Tara - 9th Annual (down 2lb)
                  4th - Adrrastos - No Fest Run
                  5th - Brelan D'As - 3rd Annual (up 2lb)

                  As above looked at top 5 again due to place terms and field size. Turns out 9 of the 15 who finished top 5 actually did have a run at the festival so taking that as something to focus on there are just 3 horses that fit this profile. The first of those is one I know people were keen on in the Annual, Zanza. He was pushed along early before pulling up after being hampered by a faller, he hasn't seen his mark changed so still comes here off 145. Personally I feel like he is well within the grasp of the handicapper and I won't be touching him, however in his favour he may well have needed the run as any break over 90 days his form read 6, PU, 4, PU, in fact his form for his 2nd run after that break is 1, 1, 2, so I wouldn't put you off him at 12/1 if you were a fan of his! Another of these options came from the Annual too, On The Slopes. Personally he is my main choice in this race, his 4th in the Annual is nice form and tends to match the profile of those who then do well in this race. His mark is untouched and the flatter nature of Aintree should hopefully suit this prominent runner and 8/1 with 5 places seems very worth taking. The other option from the festival is Sully D'oc who ran the Plate. On 2017 we saw 1st & 3rd come from the plate outside the top 5. His 8th suits that, and for me he was running okay early on, Richie did nudge him along just after 3 out so clearly wasn't happy and this drop back in trip may well suit him, 25/1 with 5 places tempts in, especially an outsider JP horse its always tempting in a handicap, with him also carrying under 11stone being a bonus.

                  Mares Bumper 2m 1f

                  Only 2 mares ran the bumper than this, Irish Roe in 2017 (20th bumper) coming 7th & The Glancing Queen (5th) winning it. So Elle Est Belle may have a chance. I think Eileendover could be very solid in this and tough to beat, however 4YO don't have the best record in recent years and Elle Est Belle does have course form along with cracking Festival form. The only angle I've found is that Alan King has 2nd & 1st in last 2 meetings. The win with Glancing Queen makes sense with her quality form, Midnightreferendum 2nd at 25/1, so may be worth watching Finest View one he has entered this year, her prep was just on the AW in a jumpers bumper with weight on her side, but visually won it well and quite easily so might be worth a go at 25/1 based on King's recent approach in this race for a placer at higher odds.

                  I think based on all of the above I'll be getting the following on side, still need to look and finalise any others but these lot I'll definately cover:
                  Eldorado Allen
                  Mister Fisher
                  Song For Someone, heart may win out and end up covering D'Air too
                  Latenightpass & Federici
                  On The Slopes & Sully D'oc
                  Finest View

                  Oh and obviously no prize's for guessing my inevitable bet on Native River

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thanks for that NR, a lot of info to take in their I’m hopeless at this meeting, so any info/views are very welcome.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Great right up that

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        .....Henderson fairly positive on Mr Fisher’s Festival run:

                        https://national.attheraces.com/stab...icky-henderson

                        Another dry, sunny & windy day here in Liverpool, a little snow flurry at the moment but it seems a while since we had any rain.
                        Last edited by Eggs; 6 April 2021, 04:28 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Excellent work Native River, although 'Zanza pushed along early before getting pulled up' is waaaaay off (where is the fish hook emoji). He's travelled round well, hit the first ditch which forced RJ to roust him away from the fence, then his race was taken from him at the next.



                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Quite glance over the card and I quite fancy the below.

                            Waiting Patiently - ran 2 crackers this season over 2 completely different trips. Had a nice break for this, flat track which plays to his strengths imo.

                            Song For Someone - probably would like it softer than it is but again missed Cheltenham and comes here fresh.

                            Gaelik Coast - the fav Getaway Trump is carrying 13lbs more than this lad, who gave him a 4 and a half length beating only receiving 1lbs. Now that was over 2m 4f at Mussy but don’t see why 2m won’t suit him.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Moon Over Germany 14/1 with B365 is far too high a price. 7s with PP. Jordan Gainford on board and won in 2019. Cracking value.

                              Comment

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