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UK Novice Chasers and Hurdlers

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  • UK Novice Chasers and Hurdlers

    It's been pointed out to me, that as of this season, novice hurdlers and chasers that hadn't won by February 1st remain novices until December 1st. The news had passed me by somehow, but it's certainly significant based on the impact it could have on new novices making their debut's. Someone else may have picked it up and highlighted it on a thread on here, but I can't find anything? I've only been posting for a couple of months, so apologies if I'm duplicating. If not, I hope it's useful.

    It potentially makes for an interesting list of horses that might be able to exploit the early season novice races that have any decent value attached. The big UK stables will certainly want to exploit it. And from a betting angle, we're talking about more experienced horses who will go into the good earlier novice races with an experience and jumping advantage. There are surely horses that were going to be targeted at Aintree rather than Cheltenham that could be really good pick-ups if we can find them.

    It might be worth compiling a list here, particularly with a view to the Open meeting in November at Cheltenham. Also for fellow stats lovers it may well change a few trends you'd think. Not just for the Open Meeting, but also possibly the Festival itself, so it's something to be mindful of.

    There are also plenty more graded novice races to look out for outside of Cheltenham, particularly at Chepstow, Newbury, Kempton, Ascot, Aintree, Sandown, etc, that will be targeted. So it's definitely an angle to be on top of and be ahead of the game, that has the potential to give a betting/value advantage before punters/bookies latch on.

    Those that have been pointed out to me so far are the Ditcheat horses, and Nicholls is sure to go out of his way to exploit the new rules. But Nicky Hendserson, Dan Skelton, Olly Murphy, Fergal O'Brien, Twister, Hobbs, et al will all be looking at how to take advantage. There's a potential betting angle here, so I'd suggest we put our collective brains together and nominate horses that qualify, and I'll add them to the list for us to watch and potentially jump on early:

    McFabulous NH
    Grand Sancy NC
    Thyme White NH
    Southfield Harvest NH
    Getaway Trump NC
    Ask For Glory NH
    Francin NH
    Last edited by Spectre; 1 September 2020, 02:00 PM.
    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

  • #2
    Getaway Trump another from Nicholls yard Spectre.

    Was reverted to hurdles on his last start after 2 chase runs but seemed well thought of going chasing last season.

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    • #3
      I've added him Craig. I've also denoted each horse by NH and NC so we can easily see if they are for hurdles or chases.
      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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      • #4
        It also occurs to me that the same is true for the Irish yards if they bring their horses over here. On that basis you'd think Gordon Elliott will try and exploit it at some point. Have Charles Byrnes and Tony Martin got anything that fit the bill? Plus any other horses with trainers that like to bring their horses over here?
        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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        • #5
          The same novice conditions have been in place in Ireland for a number of years now with the Royal Bond and Drinmore marking the end of the extended novice period. Subject to the HRI finally issuing a racing programme for the rest of the year, you'd imagine that there will be plenty of opportunities for their novices over the water.

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          • #6
            That's true Archie, but 'certain' trainers like to come over here too, and there's some nice prizemoney to be had rather than clashing with their own horses.

            Also in the case of Gordon Elliott he'll be wondering if it's another opportunity to get the right mark for some of his horses to run down the field perhaps for a novice or even open handicap later in the season.
            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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            • #7
              The diminished prize-money on both sides of the water means that most trainers will be looking to keep transport costs to a minimum. Also, with novices you probably want your stable jockeys on them so quarantine could be an issue.

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              • #8
                You raise a good point worthy of its own thread there Archie. There could actually be very few Irish horses over pre-Festival for the reasons you state.
                Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                  You raise a good point worthy of its own thread there Archie. There could actually be very few Irish horses over pre-Festival for the reasons you state.
                  I reckon they would only come over for the big dough races, or a particular race distance/grade, if there isnt one in Ireland around the same time.

                  Other than that, nothing, save for Gordy's handful of handicap entries to find out UK marks.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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                  • #10
                    Nicholls always likes to send a highly regarded one to the Persian War - Trevelyn Corn went there last year as a second season novice before chasing but something was clearly awry as it was a horror show and he's not been seen since. Secret Investor dotted up the year beforehand after winning a couple of late spring novices.

                    Ask for Glory and Brewers Project would be ones that fit here. Both cost a lot at the sales and are the typical Nicholls future chasing type.

                    Ask for Glory absolutely hosed up in a bumper at Chepstow before running in the Festival Bumper. Started off over 2m lasts season, in a hot little novice but 2m clearly too sharp for him. Had a knock afterwards and then re-appeared in a poor race at Wincanton (after 1st Feb) and won as you'd have expected. I know a few fancy him as an under the radar one for chasing, and I could easily see him starting off again at Chepstow.

                    Brewers Project was barely seen last year, not disgraced in a solid looking Newbury novice before taking a tumble when looking like winning at Exeter. Was out of training for a while afterwards but is back now and I can see him wanting a bit more experience before he goes over fences.

                    Pipesmoker would be one for Nicky over hurdles - similar sort of profile to the above.
                    Last edited by Bonjers; 27 August 2020, 01:51 PM.

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                    • #11
                      I've added Ask For Glory to the list above. He's a really good pick up. I like him Bonjers.

                      The other two are still novices by dint of not having won yet, so don't go on the list. Another Nicholls horse similar to Brewers Project that hasn't won yet, that I think may be even better in time is Bravemansgame.
                      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                      • #12
                        Francin of WPM, won two novice hurdles in Feb and March, does he qualify Spectre?

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                        • #13
                          He certainly does OTL. He's a really good spot.
                          Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by OverTheLast View Post
                            Francin of WPM, won two novice hurdles in Feb and March, does he qualify Spectre?
                            The bookies are also aware of Francin. I requested Francin be priced up by William Hill and entered in their TWAR Cheltenham Festival market for 2021 and they came back with 14/1!!! That’s a dreadful price so they are aware of a potential player in Francin

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                            • #15
                              Dreadful from Ask for Glory there. Akin to Trevelyn's Corn return last season at Chepstow. Not sure where you'd be going after that.

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