Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[Saxon Warrior]

Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

Copied from Daily bets, to start a new antepost thread.

The 2 standout antepost prices I would point out, following on from today’s Newmarket races are both with Unibet.

Secret Advisor 50/1 for the Ebor (Unibet) after a fast finishing 2nd behind Dashing Willoughby when he was the only one carrying a 5lb penalty in the race.
The Ebor quoting bookies cut his price to 25s elsewhere and the 50’s is way too big.

He is a Godolphin 6yo Gelding (on the comeback trail after 2 years off) only had eleven runs and won twice over the Ebor distance in Meydan in a Listed and Group 3 at the start of this year.
His form is well worth a look on the Racing Post site, and a rewatch the video of today’s race is well worth it.
I’m sure that price will go quickly.

I am also thinking that the Melbourne Cup could be on the agenda, if travel permits, given his connections, and that he is a gelding. B365 and Unibet the only ones quoting at the moment, both at 50/1 for that race.

Love at 33/1 for the St Leger (Unibet). The Oaks was always going to be her race this year, so taking over 4 lengths out of the 1000 Guineas field on the rising ground was so impressive.
Only two firms quote her for the St Leger, B365 go 12’s and Unibet 33’s.

I’m sure both firms don’t think she will go to Donny, but if she wins the Oaks she could easily take in the St Leger and bid to be the first Triple Crown winner for nearly 40 years
(Camelot narrowly failed, so it does show they are willing to give it a go)

The race programme could allow it:-
Oaks 4th July,
Irish Oaks 18th July (if they want to go again quickly)
St Leger 10th September,
and the Arc weekend 3 weeks later.

Her time was excellent when compared with the rest today, she isn’t quoted in the Arc market yet but she could be worth a bet in that too if Aidan’s 3yo colts don’t step up, as he only has Japan (12/1) below 33/1.

[Kevloaf]

Like those SW
Certainly agree regarding Love in the Arc too!

[Saxon Warrior]

Like those SW
Certainly agree regarding Love in the Arc too!

Maybe we need to do a request-a-bet on the Arc From one or two firms to see if we can tease out a big price.
Defo not a good idea to do a blanket price request, across them all, as the bookies usually copy the first ones that price up.

[Priceiskey]

Hoping Mogul Is Aidens big Derby hope. Definitely a good shout on Love for the Ledger SW.

[Saxon Warrior]

Hoping Mogul Is Aidens big Derby hope. Definitely a good shout on Love for the Ledger SW.

Derby
Yep, Mogul is my biggest winner, I got 28's early doors, and then 12/1.

The other two in my book are:-
Highest Ground 55/1 - however if he doesnt run soon then I think its a loser, as he just wont have anywhere enough experience.
English King 20/1 - what an impressive winner he was.

Much like my 1000 Guineas book
(1st pref Raffle Prize, but also had big prices on Love, Cloak of Spirits and Quadrilateral),
I much prefer Mogul, but would take any of the three of them to win, of course.

In the Oaks I have
Love 25/1
Frankly Darling 33/1
Miss Yoda 40/1

1st pref would be Frankly Darling, as I also have a few small double with her at 50/1 with other antepost horses, but I would be more than happy to see Love bolt up and then have a crack at the Triple Crown at Donny.

[Saxon Warrior]

Well done to anyone who took the standout prices from Unibet posted above.

Love has been cut to 16/1 from 33/1 for the St Leger

Secret Investor has been cut to 33/1 from 50/1 for the Ebor

They both still look decent value, and are currently the best prices in the market.

[Saxon Warrior]

One update On B365s Cashout, is that its cashout values appear to have changed dramatically.

My 25/1 Oaks bet on LOVE, has now had a price collapse with them to 6/4.

My cashout price is still below my original stake. It’s 95% of my initial stake, despite a price drop from 25s to 6/4.

That didn’t happen before lockdown and Cheltenham.

It seems to be a new strategy.

I am not complaining, I benefitted dramatically with their cashout at Cheltenham.

If this is a widespread change to all customers it would stop so many cashing out for profits, as there wouldn’t be any.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

One update On B365s Cashout, is that its cashout values appear to have changed dramatically.

My 25/1 Oaks bet on LOVE, has now had a price collapse with them to 6/4.

My cashout price is still below my original stake. It’s 95% of my initial stake, despite a price drop from 25s to 6/4.

That didn’t happen before lockdown and Cheltenham.

It seems to be a new strategy.

I am not complaining, I benefitted dramatically with their cashout at Cheltenham.

If this is a widespread change to all customers it would stop so many cashing out for profits, as there wouldn’t be any.

I may well be wrong SW but I’d guess this is your belated reward for cashing out that multi mid way through the National Hunt Chase...haha! The fact that it isn’t even 100% despite such a dramatic price drop suggests to me it’s a specific policy on your account. Sure we will find out soon

[Saxon Warrior]

I may well be wrong SW but I’d guess this is your belated reward for cashing out that multi mid way through the National Hunt Chase...haha! The fact that it isn’t even 100% despite such a dramatic price drop suggests to me it’s a specific policy on your account. Sure we will find out soon

Yes, I thought it could be. Happy to have that win, and only 95% Future Cashout, I’m hardly likely to cashout Love to win the Oaks.

I have always considered the main use of cashout to be for bets I wanted to drop before the event, due to a poor run/loss of form.

Cashing out that antepost bet, in-running, was a complete one-off.
Generally if I have kept antepost bets until race day (that I could have cashed out), it’s because I’m happy to let them run.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Yes, I thought it could be. Happy to have that win, and only 95% Future Cashout, I’m hardly likely to cashout Love to win the Oaks.

I have always considered the main use of cashout to be for bets I wanted to drop before the event, due to a poor run/loss of form.

Cashing out that antepost bet, in-running, was a complete one-off.
Generally if I have kept antepost bets until race day (that I could have cashed out), it’s because I’m happy to let them run.

Absolutely makes sense the way you have played it and who knows it might also just be a glitch with this selection.

[Quevega]

I may well be wrong SW but I’d guess this is your belated reward for cashing out that multi mid way through the National Hunt Chase...haha! The fact that it isn’t even 100% despite such a dramatic price drop suggests to me it’s a specific policy on your account. Sure we will find out soon

I mentioned the exact same thing yesterday.
All my antepost bets are no more than 95% 0r 100% of stake, despite big cuts in price.

Be interesting if anyone has any Antepost bets that are available to cash for profit ?

My daily, and after dec's bets do allow for profit on cashout though, just not antepost.

I reckon it's a new tactic from them across the board myself, but would be interesting if it's just specific acounts.

An easy system change to make really, so not a surprise.
Hopefully it means they are not as quick to go grey when a horse is ruled out. They'd be in less of a rush with no profiteering happening.

[nortonscoin200]

Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

Copied from Daily bets, to start a new antepost thread.

The 2 standout antepost prices I would point out, following on from today’s Newmarket races are both with Unibet.

Secret Advisor 50/1 for the Ebor (Unibet) after a fast finishing 2nd behind Dashing Willoughby when he was the only one carrying a 5lb penalty in the race.
The Ebor quoting bookies cut his price to 25s elsewhere and the 50’s is way too big.

He is a Godolphin 6yo Gelding (on the comeback trail after 2 years off) only had eleven runs and won twice over the Ebor distance in Meydan in a Listed and Group 3 at the start of this year.
His form is well worth a look on the Racing Post site, and a rewatch the video of today’s race is well worth it.
I’m sure that price will go quickly.

I am also thinking that the Melbourne Cup could be on the agenda, if travel permits, given his connections, and that he is a gelding. B365 and Unibet the only ones quoting at the moment, both at 50/1 for that race.

Love at 33/1 for the St Leger (Unibet). The Oaks was always going to be her race this year, so taking over 4 lengths out of the 1000 Guineas field on the rising ground was so impressive.
Only two firms quote her for the St Leger, B365 go 12’s and Unibet 33’s.

I’m sure both firms don’t think she will go to Donny, but if she wins the Oaks she could easily take in the St Leger and bid to be the first Triple Crown winner for nearly 40 years
(Camelot narrowly failed, so it does show they are willing to give it a go)

The race programme could allow it:-
Oaks 4th July,
Irish Oaks 18th July (if they want to go again quickly)
St Leger 10th September,
and the Arc weekend 3 weeks later.

Her time was excellent when compared with the rest today, she isn’t quoted in the Arc market yet but she could be worth a bet in that too if Aidan’s 3yo colts don’t step up, as he only has Japan (12/1) below 33/1.

Terrific stuff SW - I've joined you on the Ebor trail with Secret Advisor but sadly missed the knockout 50-1 offering.

I see older horses have a very good recent record in the Ebor - with 3 six-year-olds and one aged 7 winning in the last 5 years.

Also like Secret Advisor's course and distance win in the Melrose, albeit 3 years ago.

Thanks again for tempting me away from Cheltenham, a seam that seems to have been mined fairly thoroughly over the lockdown.

[Viking Flagship]

Interesting point and to add extra confusion my bets are showing a mixed bag... Liberty Beach 33/1 for King's Stand is showing a profit (around about +10%), yet Frankly Darling at 33/1 for the Oaks is at 95% - despite FD now being a lower price that LB!

Also have a Love/Mogul double with Love at 6s - and that hasn't moved from the original 95% cash out.

It doesn't really bother me as I don't use cash-out to profit from individual bets so I'm quite alright with them being held at 95%/100%, I'm just happy the option remains!

[Saxon Warrior]

Terrific stuff SW - I've joined you on the Ebor trail with Secret Advisor but sadly missed the knockout 50-1 offering.

I see older horses have a very good recent record in the Ebor - with 3 six-year-olds and one aged 7 winning in the last 5 years.

Also like Secret Advisor's course and distance win in the Melrose, albeit 3 years ago.

Thanks again for tempting me away from Cheltenham, a seam that seems to have been mined fairly thoroughly over the lockdown.

Nortons,

It looks like a few took up the two prices suggested on Secret Advisor and Love as Unibet have had to cut at least twice, and to duck out of being clear best price.

Secret Advisor (Ebor) was dropped from 50/1 to 33/1 by Unibet last night, but they have had a big cut down to 20/1 at 10.34am this morning to go underprice compared to a general market price of 25/1 now.

Love (St Leger) was dropped from 33/1 to 16/1 by Unibet yesterday evening, and then to 12/1 before the end of the day.

Its a speculative bet that Love ends up at Donny. She does have a much stouter pedigree than Minding, and once Minding had won the 1000 and Oaks she reverted back to 10F and a Mile which her dams pedigree suggested was a more appropriate trip.

Love has a 12F pedigree, so the Triple Crown could be on if she won well at Epsom.
Her full sister Peach Tree won last years Group 3 Stanerra Stakes over 1M6F
Her full sister Flattering won the 2018 1M4F Munster Oaks, and went on to place 5th in the Epsom Oaks, and 4th in the Fillies St Leger - the Park Hill Stakes at Donny over 1M6&1/2F.

NOTE: There is still £35 on Betfair Exchange on Love to win the St Leger at around 28/1 if anyone is interested.

NOTE: Secret Investor is @110 on the Betfair Exch for the Melbourne Cup, for £15 to £20, if anyone is interested in that race for him. That compares favourably with the 50/1 Fixed Odds quotes from B365 and Unibet.

[nortonscoin200]

Phew...I got on Secret Advisor at 10.32am!!!