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Had my biggest horse bet since Cheltenham today.. Bellarina Lady at 17/2 each way (4 places) in the 1:40 at York.
I just can’t get my head around the price with no rain expected. If it rained, she would be pulled out but the forecast suggests it’ll be dry and the good ground at York as of right now would be firm enough for her to run.
A little look at the form.. she was green as grass on her debut when second at Newmarket (if you watch the race, you’ll see she wandered around and didn’t know what to do). She finished well that day to finish second despite the greenness. From that debut run:
- The winner has come out and won again since.
- Our filly here was 2nd and then beat the boys at Leicester.
- The 3rd that day has run a good 2nd next time
- The 4th then came 2nd herself behind another in this
- The 5th was then 4th at Bath
- The 6th has not run since
- The 7th bolted up by 5 lengths next time and then came 2nd last week in a class 2.
- The 8th won comfortably at Windsor next time
- The 9th won comfortably next time at Goodwood and is the second fav in this race (Canonised)
- The 10th, 11th and 12th have not run again since that day.
So then our filly after that great run in debut at Newmarket, goes over to Leicester to take on the boys. She’s again green and changes her lead leg 4 times in the final half mile before really getting the hang of it late on and wins by 2 and 1/4 lengths. Whilst on this occasion the form is questionable, she couldn’t have beaten them much easier.
I just can’t get my head around the price with no rain expected. If it rained, she would be pulled out but the forecast suggests it’ll be dry and the good ground at York as of right now would be firm enough for her to run.
A little look at the form.. she was green as grass on her debut when second at Newmarket (if you watch the race, you’ll see she wandered around and didn’t know what to do). She finished well that day to finish second despite the greenness. From that debut run:
- The winner has come out and won again since.
- Our filly here was 2nd and then beat the boys at Leicester.
- The 3rd that day has run a good 2nd next time
- The 4th then came 2nd herself behind another in this
- The 5th was then 4th at Bath
- The 6th has not run since
- The 7th bolted up by 5 lengths next time and then came 2nd last week in a class 2.
- The 8th won comfortably at Windsor next time
- The 9th won comfortably next time at Goodwood and is the second fav in this race (Canonised)
- The 10th, 11th and 12th have not run again since that day.
So then our filly after that great run in debut at Newmarket, goes over to Leicester to take on the boys. She’s again green and changes her lead leg 4 times in the final half mile before really getting the hang of it late on and wins by 2 and 1/4 lengths. Whilst on this occasion the form is questionable, she couldn’t have beaten them much easier.
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