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2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

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  • talking about IEP and Stateman possibly putting it up CH next year? co commentator asks do you think CH stays hurdling, Hugh says I think so, Jane jokingly says 'sure he seen him schooling the other day wasn't impressed... The hugh cahill special"

    Nothing to freak out about - tongue in cheek about seeing him schooling
    Last edited by HesTheOne; 28 April 2023, 08:14 AM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
      talking about IEP and Stateman possibly putting it up CH next year? co commentator asks do you thinking CH stays hurdling, Hugh says I think so, Jane jokingly says 'sure he seen him schooling the other day wasn't impressed... The hugh cahill special"

      Nothing to freak out about - tongue in cheek about seeing him schooling
      Thanks HesTheOne

      That just shows people need to be very clear and concise as to what is put here on the forum, in regards to making something sounding like something it isn't, as some people make judgements based off comments from on here, and I just hope anyone didn't react to that news last night in a damaging way.

      There's no way something like that wouldn't have been plastered ALL OVER twitter within minutes if it was said in truth.

      Constitution Hill could still end up hurdling, but yesterday wasn't any indication as to that.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
        talking about IEP and Stateman possibly putting it up CH next year? co commentator asks do you thinking CH stays hurdling, Hugh says I think so, Jane jokingly says 'sure he seen him schooling the other day wasn't impressed... The hugh cahill special"

        Nothing to freak out about - tongue in cheek about seeing him schooling
        Nice one mate. Appreciate that. So at best, we've got Hugh Cahill's opinion of him schooling. More likely, given the tone you've conveyed, we have a throw away comment aimed at putting Hugh Cahill down in jocular fashion.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post

          Nice one mate. Appreciate that. So at best, we've got Hugh Cahill's opinion of him schooling. More likely, given the tone you've conveyed, we have a throw away comment aimed at putting Hugh Cahill down in jocular fashion.
          Yea I wouldn't read into it at all. Can see how the sarcasm may have gone over some heads.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by darlojim View Post

            Thanks HesTheOne

            That just shows people need to be very clear and concise as to what is put here on the forum, in regards to making something sounding like something it isn't, as some people make judgements based off comments from on here, and I just hope anyone didn't react to that news last night in a damaging way.

            There's no way something like that wouldn't have been plastered ALL OVER twitter within minutes if it was said in truth.

            Constitution Hill could still end up hurdling, but yesterday wasn't any indication as to that.
            Yea I'd say he probably will head that direction. Ruby did say on Wednesday (in his opinion) they'll stay hurdling. Not sure if it was RTE or RacingTV but I'd obviously hang more merit on Rubys opinion that Hugh Cahill (no offence hugh but your not that guy)

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bollinger View Post
              We won’t be hearing about it tomorrow at all Lobos, I’d be confident of that.

              But we will be hearing about it in due course, whatever the decision.

              With regards his ante post price for the Arkle Lobos, he’s 11/8 v the 6/4 for the Arkle.

              This from his yard’s sponsors.
              But 4/6 for Champion Hurdle with nearly everyone else so hardly a 'sign' of where he's heading from the sponsors.

              Comment


              • Unibet pushed Constitution Hill out to a jt top priced 6/4 for the Champ Hdle, decision made Bollinger ??

                Comment


                • Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post

                  Yea it’s been said a few times by Barry Connell. quote from Barry earlier in the week when he wasn’t declared

                  I would say the Champion Hurdle route is more likely but he has a lot of schooling done over fences and jumps brilliant, so it is an option. He’s only run three times over hurdles and while his jumping was very good at Cheltenham, Michael (O’Sullivan) felt there was room for improvement, he was still hanging in the air a bit which Champion Hurdle horses don’t do. That will come with experience.

                  “Assuming Constitution Hill goes chasing, there’s probably a vacancy. There’s no Hurricane Fly or Annie Power around in the Champion Hurdle, so that is probably the way we are leaning. Good Land (Dublin Festival Grade One winner) will go chasing for sure, though. He ran OK at Cheltenham, if a bit flat, but he’ll be exciting over fences"


                  Reads like CH is certainly a factor in decision making. Echoes his post race comments at Cheltenham
                  Has anyone considered / backed the Marione Nationale / Constitution Hill 'avoidance' double?

                  14/1 (Marine Nationale - Arkle / Constitution Hill - CH) - PP/BFSB/StarSports
                  23/1 (Constitution Hill - Arkle / Marine Nationale - CH) - Ladrokes

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                    Has anyone considered / backed the Marione Nationale / Constitution Hill 'avoidance' double?

                    14/1 (Marine Nationale - Arkle / Constitution Hill - CH) - PP/BFSB/StarSports
                    I could get very interested in this.
                    Start Sports ? If you're tracking their prices you must have lost some accounts Kev...

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                      Has anyone considered / backed the Marione Nationale / Constitution Hill 'avoidance' double?

                      14/1 (Marine Nationale - Arkle / Constitution Hill - CH) - PP/BFSB/StarSports
                      Did this one a few weeks ago as cover for going hard enough on Marine for the CHurdle alone at 8/1 but definitely think it could prove one of the best related doubles. Was less bothered about the other one at the time, but definitely considering it now given my more recent thoughts that Constitution could definitely stay hurdling.

                      It would be really interesting if someone could requestabet both horses to win any race and see how that pulled up in comparison. I'm assuming it would be pretty poor in comparison to the two individual doubles though...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                        Has anyone considered / backed the Marione Nationale / Constitution Hill 'avoidance' double?

                        14/1 (Marine Nationale - Arkle / Constitution Hill - CH) - PP/BFSB/StarSports
                        23/1 (Constitution Hill - Arkle / Marine Nationale - CH) - Ladrokes
                        done this (14/1)and added impaire et pass? for turners for the treble also. Pays a handsome amount and if con hill stays over hurdles you would think these would be the targets

                        Comment


                        • Just thinking of the importance of CH to Henderson's yard revenue. Nicky's championship winners are certainly not as widespread as they used to be. CH was his only winner at the festival this year. His squad in general is getting smaller and smaller each season with less young horses heading to seven barrows.

                          In 22-23 season NH earned ?2.64M across GB NH Racing. CH accounts for 20% of the winnings - another 23% is tied up with Shishkin and Jonbon.

                          From a yard earnings perspective it would be a major risk to go chasing instead of hurdling.
                          • If he was to end up in the champion chase he's playing for less prize money against 2 or 3 formidable opponents.
                            Plus you'd suspect that will be the target for Jonbon, I'd doubt 2 of his top 3 yard earners will head off on the same campaign.
                            -
                          • He's surely not going to campaign him straight at 3 miles either for the Gold Cup this season - which the remaining top 3 earner in Shishkin will be vying for.
                            There is the open idea of the Ryanair but at this moment I'd see that as a fall stop for either Jonbon or Shishkin to divert should they disappoint.
                            -
                          • That leaves the Arkle - which is worth less than 100k to the winner. A reduction of 61% in winning prize money compared to the Champion Hurdle.
                          At this point in time its fair to say Jonbon will have a somewhat easy time picking up 2m prize money in GB prior to Cheltenham.
                          The 3m open company division is hard to call but Shishkin will certainly have to battle for the prize money on offer in that division.

                          From a yard earnings perspective it would be a major risk to go chasing instead of hurdling.

                          I appreciate this does look at it solely in the prism of Cheltenham - perhaps there is a route to pick up prize money on offer outside of Cheltenham.. but the way id see it for Nicky to divide his eggs equally across the baskets it makes very little sense to risk sending him chasing,
                          • Decreased prize money to be won novice chasing
                            -
                          • Decreased chance of picking up prize money in open chase company + he ends up clashing with the other stable horses
                            -
                          • The most obvious of all is the risk in a total loss in revenue due to picking up an injury chasing.
                          For Nicky to max his winnings - given the other stable stars are in no way guaranteed winners I think all roads lead to him staying hurdling for the benefit of the whole operation at seven barrows

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
                            Just thinking of the importance of CH to Henderson's yard revenue. Nicky's championship winners are certainly not as widespread as they used to be. CH was his only winner at the festival this year. His squad in general is getting smaller and smaller each season with less young horses heading to seven barrows.

                            In 22-23 season NH earned ?2.64M across GB NH Racing. CH accounts for 20% of the winnings - another 23% is tied up with Shishkin and Jonbon.

                            From a yard earnings perspective it would be a major risk to go chasing instead of hurdling.
                            • If he was to end up in the champion chase he's playing for less prize money against 2 or 3 formidable opponents.
                              Plus you'd suspect that will be the target for Jonbon, I'd doubt 2 of his top 3 yard earners will head off on the same campaign.
                              -
                            • He's surely not going to campaign him straight at 3 miles either for the Gold Cup this season - which the remaining top 3 earner in Shishkin will be vying for.
                              There is the open idea of the Ryanair but at this moment I'd see that as a fall stop for either Jonbon or Shishkin to divert should they disappoint.
                              -
                            • That leaves the Arkle - which is worth less than 100k to the winner. A reduction of 61% in winning prize money compared to the Champion Hurdle.
                            At this point in time its fair to say Jonbon will have a somewhat easy time picking up 2m prize money in GB prior to Cheltenham.
                            The 3m open company division is hard to call but Shishkin will certainly have to battle for the prize money on offer in that division.

                            From a yard earnings perspective it would be a major risk to go chasing instead of hurdling.

                            I appreciate this does look at it solely in the prism of Cheltenham - perhaps there is a route to pick up prize money on offer outside of Cheltenham.. but the way id see it for Nicky to divide his eggs equally across the baskets it makes very little sense to risk sending him chasing,
                            • Decreased prize money to be won novice chasing
                              -
                            • Decreased chance of picking up prize money in open chase company + he ends up clashing with the other stable horses
                              -
                            • The most obvious of all is the risk in a total loss in revenue due to picking up an injury chasing.
                            For Nicky to max his winnings - given the other stable stars are in no way guaranteed winners I think all roads lead to him staying hurdling for the benefit of the whole operation at seven barrows
                            Does Michael Buckley just go with what Henderson says or does he like to have a big say in where his horses go ?

                            Comment


                            • imo, he's staying hurdling.

                              Hendo is a guy who said CH could've died running on good ground last year. He's getting more and more conservative every year. He'll probably win a 3 runner Champion Hurdle having run once all year before Hendo turns on the waterworks for the cameras

                              edit: I can't remember if it was died or career ending, but Henderson's approach of conflating his running preference with welfare is playing with fire that will burn him or us all one day

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Ice View Post

                                Does Michael Buckley just go with what Henderson says or does he like to have a big say in where his horses go ?
                                Not a clue who holds the power. Suspect its a case of both trying to convince the other.

                                Would think it'd be easier for NH convince Buckley to stay hurdling than vice a versa

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