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2023 Bumper

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  • Originally posted by Mighty View Post
    The one small piece of form is through Run for Harry, who was nearly 15L 4th here, and was also beaten into 3rd behind Better Days Ahead and Chapeau de Soleil by 9 1/4L at Fairyhouse.

    I don’t know if Run for Harry ran to form in both races but that’s a small piece of encouragement for those (inc me) sitting on big prices.

    The time figures with others on the day will be interesting though Outlaw any thoughts? He shouldn’t be 4/1 of course, but he deserves to be near the top of the market in a weak division this year.
    With the hurdles omitted ran within 6L of the 2m novice on circuit(not particularly strong), quicker from 3to 2/1 out with that factored in with minimal effort quite easily. Looked very good visually a 126 RPR gets you 3rd on RP ratings this season and a rating around there would prob be sensible thou as we know they get excited easily this season so a 130+ wouldn't shock from them.

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    • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

      Courtesy of Gaultstats.
      Briar Hill, Silver Concorde and Moon Racer won 2013/14/15 renewals on back of just one run (win) and I seem to remember going back further there were a few...
      Now that is a stat you can make read however you want

      3 in 10 or 0 in 7 makes very different viewing!

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      • Originally posted by Irish Rugby View Post
        Thanks. Where is the Declan Phelan quote from, or has he some sort of private subscription service?
        Expensive, but excellent, private service

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        • Originally posted by qzy View Post

          Expensive, but excellent, private service
          Thanks. Good luck. I'd heard he was a very good judge. Can remember reading some of his thoughts what must be about 10 years back.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post

            Was impressive, but she was getting 5lbs of a very average sort. Add to that a bit like his wife's colours i'll be taking Patrick's colours winners with a pinch of salt. Get them out, get them looking like Annie Power, and get them sold.
            Always pays to be very sceptical of impressive bumper winners that are then sold when owned & trained by that yard. There’s been an example of this probably every year for the past few, usually they are mares as well. Panic attack, take tea, pink in the park , no doubt there is more!

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            • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

              Courtesy of Gaultstats.
              Briar Hill, Silver Concorde and Moon Racer won 2013/14/15 renewals on back of just one run (win) and I seem to remember going back further there were a few...
              Gaultstats seem to have slipped up on this one: Moon Racer had run (and won) twice before and Silver Concorde had run in three previous NHF races.
              Perhaps the stat was for horses with just the one run in that season?
              Last edited by Bayoffreedom; 22 January 2023, 04:21 PM.

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              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                This wasn't lost on me SW, 11/2 second fav the jockey should be banned for a month for that ride.
                He'll get away with it because he's an apprentice.
                Watching the race unfold it just got funnier this lad was 20l off the pace and never asked to pick up, beat 90l, was literally given a gentle canter, really surprised more wasn't said of this on such a slow news day....
                It was horrible to watch, I though the horse must have something wrong, and be pulled up, but he kept on, and going further behind - and he was the 2nd Fav and from the winners stable
                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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                • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                  It was horrible to watch, I though the horse must have something wrong, and be pulled up, but he kept on, and going further behind - and he was the 2nd Fav and from the winners stable
                  It was his first ever ride in public, but even making concessions for that, it was an inexplicable ride and performance; he would go faster riding out on a normal morning.

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                  • Don't miss our timefigure guru on Gaelic Warrior, Allegorie de Vassy, It's For Me and an unraced bumper horse to keep on side.


                    Section at the bottom on the bumper and Graeme Norths PTP figures for some of the horses in the betting.

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                    • Any thoughts on No Time To Wait winning easily today? Worth any kind of consideration or no? Form boost for Ile Atlantique, who is looking like a good one for next year in novice hurdles.

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                      • Originally posted by Many Clouds View Post
                        Any thoughts on No Time To Wait winning easily today? Worth any kind of consideration or no? Form boost for Ile Atlantique, who is looking like a good one for next year in novice hurdles.
                        Not for me. Was a poor race with the 2nd being well beat the last twice.

                        Chosen Witness put up by Ruby as the value bet for the Bumper from Willie's lot.

                        The interesting thing he said though was that It's For Me was working well and they expected him to win, although a caveat that they don't actually know what the bumper horses will do until they hit the track.

                        Do him and Patrick have some sort of agreement to say the opposite about the Mullins horses? They never seem to agree on the home work of the bumper horses.

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                        • ….Ruby suggests Chosen Witness could be where the value lies with the Mullins horses;

                          https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...preview/206850

                          20-1 365.
                          Last edited by Eggs; 25 January 2023, 08:15 AM.

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                          • Originally posted by Eggs View Post
                            ….Ruby suggests Chosen Witness could be the ‘best of Mullins’;

                            https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...preview/206850

                            20-1 365.
                            Maybe it's my lack of coffee and I'm misreading, but he's just suggesting he is value as opposed to being the best of Mullins' isn't he?

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                            • Originally posted by Dandrew99 View Post

                              Maybe it's my lack of coffee and I'm misreading, but he's just suggesting he is value as opposed to being the best of Mullins' isn't he?
                              ….probably, I’ll re-word.

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                              • Originally posted by Dandrew99 View Post

                                Maybe it's my lack of coffee and I'm misreading, but he's just suggesting he is value as opposed to being the best of Mullins' isn't he?
                                Yeah that's right.

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