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Just to add to what Saxon has said, after doing the Cheltenham trends I was reminded how poor a recent record this race has for the Gold Cup:
2022
1st - Chantry House - PU Gold Cup - Henderson 8YO
2nd - Santini - 8th Gold Cup - Gundry 10YO
3rd - Aye Right - 9th Gold Cup - Harriet Graham 9YO
2020
1st - Santini - 2nd Gold Cup - Henderson 8YO
2nd - Bristol De Mai - 9th Gold Cup - NTD 9YO
2019
2nd - Elegant Escape - 6th Gold Cup - Tizzard 7YO
2018
1st - Definitly Red - 6th Gold Cup - Ellison 9YO
2nd - American - 9th Gold Cup - Fry 8YO
PU - Tea For Two - 7th Gold Cup - Nick Williams 9YO
2017
3rd - Smad Place - 8th Gold Cup - Alan King 10YO
2016
1st - Smad Place - 6th Gold Cup - Alan King 9YO
F - Djakadam - 2nd Gold Cup - Willie (IRE) 7YO
PU - O'Faolains Boy - 7th Gold Cup - Curtis 9YO
662P is the current form of the winners, with HMS Santini being the best faring winner of last 6 years.
These trends have a direct correlation with the recent Irish dominance of the Gold Cup, improved prize money in Ireland and the emergence of the DRF, fewer Irish horses are making the trip over when big prizes await back home.
Most big UK races no longer act as festival trials, after all Irish horses are winning the vast majority of G1/G2 festival races these days...
These trends have a direct correlation with the recent Irish dominance of the Gold Cup, improved prize money in Ireland and the emergence of the DRF, fewer Irish horses are making the trip over when big prizes await back home.
Most big UK races no longer act as festival trials, after all Irish horses are winning the vast majority of G1/G2 festival races these days...
The Main reason I don't do a GB Race Planning Diary
That and the sheer amount of races in GB c/w Ireland.
I don't think Noble Yeats has an earthly in this BUT I do think he has a shout in the national. Any opinion if 10/1 is good price for him in that? I just seem to remember Willie saying he was a National horse. I know it's not this race so possibly wrong thread but related so.... ?
I don't think Noble Yeats has an earthly in this BUT I do think he has a shout in the national. Any opinion if 10/1 is good price for him in that? I just seem to remember Willie saying he was a National horse. I know it's not this race so possibly wrong thread but related so.... ?
You know he won the race last year CG ?
That was off 147, what he gets this time might stop him.
Grand National thread:
I don't think Noble Yeats has an earthly in this BUT I do think he has a shout in the national. Any opinion if 10/1 is good price for him in that? I just seem to remember Willie saying he was a National horse. I know it's not this race so possibly wrong thread but related so.... ?
I don't think Noble Yeats has an earthly in this BUT I do think he has a shout in the national. Any opinion if 10/1 is good price for him in that? I just seem to remember Willie saying he was a National horse. I know it's not this race so possibly wrong thread but related so.... ?
The last horse to win the Grand National with top weight was Red Rum in 1974.
I just see so many negatives this time:
1. He'll have to carry a stone extra this time.
2. If he goes close in the Gold Cup there must be a significant chance he doesn't go to Aintree.
3. Jocked up for Cheltenham on Saturday and if he wins his mark will likely go even higher. Doubt he'd get dropped even with a poor performance in the Cotswold Chase.
Well remember Master Oats winning the Gold Cup by 15 lengths in 1995 and then being backed into 5-1 favourite for the National carrying top weight 11st 10lbs.
Many people thought he was thrown in as Gold Cup winner whose last 3 starts that season earned rprs of 175-176.
He was beaten 15 lengths in seventh at Aintree - the weight hobbled him.
People will rightly say it's a different race now - but one of the biggest differences is that the field has so much more depth these days.
I certainly wouldn't back Noble Yeats without nrnb and I'd seriously question whether backing him at 10-1 makes as much sense as having a few quid on the likes of Corach Rambler at 20-1. Trainer says Aintree's the target and if NY runs he gets in on 10st 3lbs on current marks.
The last horse to win the Grand National with top weight was Red Rum in 1974.
I just see so many negatives this time:
1. He'll have to carry a stone extra this time.
2. If he goes close in the Gold Cup there must be a significant chance he doesn't go to Aintree. 3. Jocked up for Cheltenham on Saturday and if he wins his mark will likely go even higher. Doubt he'd get dropped even with a poor performance in the Cotswold Chase.
Well remember Master Oats winning the Gold Cup by 15 lengths in 1995 and then being backed into 5-1 favourite for the National carrying top weight 11st 10lbs.
Many people thought he was thrown in as Gold Cup winner whose last 3 starts that season earned rprs of 175-176.
He was beaten 15 lengths in seventh at Aintree - the weight hobbled him.
People will rightly say it's a different race now - but one of the biggest differences is that the field has so much more depth these days.
I certainly wouldn't back Noble Yeats without nrnb and I'd seriously question whether backing him at 10-1 makes as much sense as having a few quid on the likes of Corach Rambler at 20-1. Trainer says Aintree's the target and if NY runs he gets in on 10st 3lbs on current marks.
But what do I know
The higher rated he becomes, the more likely it becomes he's proving a top class animal.
He then has an advantage over any horse officially rated 24lbs lower than him, as they will start to run "out of the handicap"
Master oats was a grand horse but i've always been of the opinion he didn't quite stay the grand national trip, and this was his reason for not winning, not the burden of weight. He faced many horses at an advantage on the weights in the grand national not a disadvantage.
The Cotswold Chase just does what it says on the tin. It's a solid race.......................................for GRADE 2 staying chasers. It's their Gold Cup.
Strange race that to watch. They basically all seemed to get outpaced and different stages and they stay on. Even Protektorat seemed to be staying on and closing at the finish, assumed he'd fade completely.
Really hope GDC wins this to be honest. Any other result will be a painful watch.
Actually bothered recording some of my bets this week. And I'm fairly over commited on Conflated at the moment. So those all looking crap has probably helped there at least.
Last edited by Benjy23; 28 January 2023, 01:41 PM.
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