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The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

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  • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post

    Same here. As Spectre predicted, he's going to go off single figures.
    If I’m reading your diary correctly at 3.5pts ew this is your biggest outlay on any horse (single) bar a 110 pt (?) Envoi Allen play...

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

      If I’m reading your diary correctly at 3.5pts ew this is your biggest outlay on any horse (single) bar a 110 pt (?) Envoi Allen play...
      Almost. I have 5pt ew Sky Pirate in the GA and 7.5pt on Goshen but he's next in line.

      The Envoi bet is misleading as I plan to trade out at some point.

      #GambleResponsibly

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      • Looking at the make up of the race, unless Aso runs top weight will likely be 153 or 154, so Happygolucky will carry 11st 3 or 11st 4 which is in the range of 4 of the last 6 winners.

        4 or the last 6 were also novices, the other two were returners fron the previous season. Un Temps Pour Tout following up his win as a novice in the previous season and Beware The Bear following up his 4th place the previous season. There are no similar profile horses to those two this season, so the ones to focus on are the novices.

        Given the market is a good guide it also pays to focus on those at the head of the market. Usually top 6, but for the purposes of this, but I'll stretch it out a little to include horses that could shorten. This gives us Coko Beach (heading elsewhere), Happygolucky, Escaria Ten (here or NH Chase), Lieutenant Rocco (owner says graded chase), Remastered (Pipe says NH Chase), and One For The Team (poss Aintree).

        After all is considered we only have one with the right profile that connections have commited to the race. Happygolucky.

        Depending on which of the above turn up he will go off in the 5/1-9/1 range, which means there's juice in the price until he goes to single figures. Then it's an ear to the ground to see what connections of the other horses say and whether they commit here.

        Based on the profile of the race the current 12/1 nrnb is fine. 10/1 and you start thinking about it.
        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
          Looking at the make up of the race, unless Aso runs top weight will likely be 153 or 154, so Happygolucky will carry 11st 3 or 11st 4 which is in the range of 4 of the last 6 winners.

          4 or the last 6 were also novices, the other two were returners fron the previous season. Un Temps Pour Tout following up his win as a novice in the previous season and Beware The Bear following up his 4th place the previous season. There are no similar profile horses to those two this season, so the ones to focus on are the novices.

          Given the market is a good guide it also pays to focus on those at the head of the market. Usually top 6, but for the purposes of this, but I'll stretch it out a little to include horses that could shorten. This gives us Coko Beach (heading elsewhere), Happygolucky, Escaria Ten (here or NH Chase), Lieutenant Rocco (owner says graded chase), Remastered (Pipe says NH Chase), and One For The Team (poss Aintree).

          After all is considered we only have one with the right profile that connections have commited to the race. Happygolucky.

          Depending on which of the above turn up he will go off in the 5/1-9/1 range, which means there's juice in the price until he goes to single figures. Then it's an ear to the ground to see what connections of the other horses say and whether they commit here.

          Based on the profile of the race the current 12/1 nrnb is fine. 10/1 and you start thinking about it.
          Yeh it's a complete smash up job now with blue across the board. Well done to whoever mentioned him.

          FYI Hills go 14/1 which can be boosted to 15/1 5 places. Thats not NRNB, but with target confirmed you'd be unlucky for him not to take his place.

          I think the fact David Bass will almost certainly be riding him is a massive plus in a race like that. He's fast becoming a favourite of mine.

          Comment


          • After giving Mister Whitaker a mention for the Plate I must clarify before I make this next case that I have no particular allegiance to Mick Channon!! It is purely coincidental that I like the chances of these two, although he does have a fair track record when targeting the Festival.

            Hold The Note
            Ran an excellent race in the Novice Hcap at last year's festival when 3rd behind none other than Imperial Aura and Galvin in what, on reflection, was an impossible task trying to give them 2lb and 3lb respectively. Before this he had gone down by just 1/2L to Two For Gold off level weights over 3miles at Warwick - that horse is now rated 154. 13L back was Whatmore who is now off 145 and many fancied for here.
            Hold The Note is a 2nd season novice and for whatever reason had a tough time of it in the first half of this season, not disgraced, but never really landing a blow in 4 races. He had a wind op over Christmas and it was much more like it last time going down fighting to Enrilo over 2m 7 1/2f at Newbury. That was off 7lb lower than the Cheltenham performance (145>138) and he might go up a couple for it but if back on form that is no issue. As a relatively unexposed 7yo there is every reason to think there could be more to come. He showed no signs of stopping at Newbury and, coupled with the Warwick performance last Jan, I don't doubt that he's a 3miler - in fact RP comments after his 4th in the John Francome suggested he could be one for the NH Chase! 33/1 NRNB is appealing in a race that may lack depth.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Viking Flagship View Post
              After giving Mister Whitaker a mention for the Plate I must clarify before I make this next case that I have no particular allegiance to Mick Channon!! It is purely coincidental that I like the chances of these two, although he does have a fair track record when targeting the Festival.

              Hold The Note
              Ran an excellent race in the Novice Hcap at last year's festival when 3rd behind none other than Imperial Aura and Galvin in what, on reflection, was an impossible task trying to give them 2lb and 3lb respectively. Before this he had gone down by just 1/2L to Two For Gold off level weights over 3miles at Warwick - that horse is now rated 154. 13L back was Whatmore who is now off 145 and many fancied for here.
              Hold The Note is a 2nd season novice and for whatever reason had a tough time of it in the first half of this season, not disgraced, but never really landing a blow in 4 races. He had a wind op over Christmas and it was much more like it last time going down fighting to Enrilo over 2m 7 1/2f at Newbury. That was off 7lb lower than the Cheltenham performance (145>138) and he might go up a couple for it but if back on form that is no issue. As a relatively unexposed 7yo there is every reason to think there could be more to come. He showed no signs of stopping at Newbury and, coupled with the Warwick performance last Jan, I don't doubt that he's a 3miler - in fact RP comments after his 4th in the John Francome suggested he could be one for the NH Chase! 33/1 NRNB is appealing in a race that may lack depth.
              I thought you made a good case for Mister Whitaker for the Plate and backed him 25/1 NRNB.
              In relation to Hold the Note I presume you meant "for the Ultima" and not NH chase. The 33/1 NRNB is a good cover for the Ultima but the market strongly suggests Kim Muir at less than half the odds. What we dont know is how the handicapper reacts to his much improved 3ml performance on Sunday after his wind op

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Pendil View Post

                I thought you made a good case for Mister Whitaker for the Plate and backed him 25/1 NRNB.
                In relation to Hold the Note I presume you meant "for the Ultima" and not NH chase. The 33/1 NRNB is a good cover for the Ultima but the market strongly suggests Kim Muir at less than half the odds. What we dont know is how the handicapper reacts to his much improved 3ml performance on Sunday after his wind op
                Hi Pendil. Nope, RP analysis stated “...could end up in a race like the National Hunt Chase”. I referred to this to add weight to the argument that the horse is a stayer, despite the good performance at last year’s festival over the intermediate.

                I wouldn’t necessarily say the markets suggest he goes to the KM, there hasn’t been any moves that I’m aware of, it’s just where the bookies have pitched the price upon entry. It’s natural to expect any horse entered in both to be a lower price for the KM as it’s a lower quality race. At the end of the day the horse remains a maiden over fences so is far from bulletproof... do I have the same enthusiasm at 14/1 for the KM? No I don’t. He might well go there, but I made the case here as it’s a price thing - he could get in here off a lovely weight and I can see him running a big race at a big price.

                Comment


                • Does anybody know whether the intention with storm control is to come here or the Kim Miur? The 40s with will hill is tempting me, but I think I’d be more interested in him here than the other race.

                  Comment


                  • I’ve got Hold The Note covered for both handicaps, but I’d be reasonably sure the Kim Muir is the plan. Nothing to do with prices, just how low Channon has been determined to get his mark. The timing of the wind op isn’t coincidence either. I believe they held off and ran a couple of times when they could have done it earlier.
                    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by ToniC View Post
                      Does anybody know whether the intention with storm control is to come here or the Kim Miur? The 40s with will hill is tempting me, but I think I’d be more interested in him here than the other race.
                      Kim Muir is the plan.

                      Comment


                      • Was Cobra De Mai mentioned in Skeltons stable tour? He’d seem a no hoper after his last couple of runs, but he ran well in this last year & is 7lbs lower now. Wouldn’t be guaranteed to get in, but I’d have to have a couple of quid on at 50/1 if he did come here just in case!

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                        • He's gone to Caroline Bailey Stormez. Just owned by one of the original owners now.

                          I'll find out what the intentions are and post when I hear.
                          Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                            He's gone to Caroline Bailey Stormez. Just owned by one of the original owners now.

                            I'll find out what the intentions are and post when I hear.
                            They've taken the decision that he won't get in and they're going to Ascot instead.
                            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                            • Great, thanks Spectre

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                              • Slate House off a second run after a wind op and decent weight in this, if only he could learn how to jump.

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