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The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

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  • #16
    Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

    Yeah, I'd be inclined to look this way too, though it means I usually end up with a list of about 15 horses and thats without considering anything outside of novices.

    I wonder how compact the Ultima, Plate and the likes will end up now the Novice Chase is out the window.
    Iv thought it for a while now that the novice chase is gone we will see all of those above get a lot more compact. Hiding a novices ability must be easier than getting a few lbs of an exposed horse.

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    • #17
      Liking the look of The Conditional returning here thought it was a decent enough run at Newbury and the losing of 1lb is a bonus. Only concern is I can imagine there might not be much juice in the pricing up of him when we get the markets soon

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Native River View Post
        Liking the look of The Conditional returning here thought it was a decent enough run at Newbury and the losing of 1lb is a bonus. Only concern is I can imagine there might not be much juice in the pricing up of him when we get the markets soon
        You're probably right regarding the price if going for the same race...


        Returning favourites that DIDN'T win can often be wildly over priced.

        Returning favourites that DID win - can't see it happening.

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        • #19
          I am sure I read somewhere that The Conditional's owner is knocking on and would like a Gold Cup runner. It wouldn't surprise me if they had a crack at that Cheltenham trial at the end of January.

          If he does go Ultima then I would be surprised if he was much more than 12/1 at any stage.

          He does travel very well but the negative for me is this habit he seems to be developing of not finishing his races off as strongly as you might expect.

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          • #20
            Took a glance at the ever valuable Gaultstats today fopr this.

            Most interesting indicator for me so far is the last 7 winners have either been a novice or run in the Hennessey (fuck Ladbrokes).

            So our winner could well be in that field - but could also make the obvious ones (The Conditional) overbet

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            • #21
              Un Temps Por Tout won the Ultima as a novice in 2016 @ 11/1 of 148, ran poorly in that years Hennessy 10th and won this again of 155 @ 9/1. So its doable in successive years

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              • #22
                Originally posted by robith View Post
                Took a glance at the ever valuable Gaultstats today fopr this.

                Most interesting indicator for me so far is the last 7 winners have either been a novice or run in the Hennessey (fuck Ladbrokes).

                So our winner could well be in that field - but could also make the obvious ones (The Conditional) overbet
                Hennessy decide to stop putting money in to the sport, yet still get the benefits and credit a few years on?

                I wonder how long that'll last for..... the years and years of money shouldn't be forgotten, but that's a bit harsh on Ladbrokes isn't it

                Then again, people call it the Hennessy then people discuss it actually being the Ladbrokes, so maybe even increasing the exposure to the brand. They probably are both pretty pleased

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                  Hennessy decide to stop putting money in to the sport, yet still get the benefits and credit a few years on?

                  I wonder how long that'll last for..... the years and years of money shouldn't be forgotten, but that's a bit harsh on Ladbrokes isn't it

                  Then again, people call it the Hennessy then people discuss it actually being the Ladbrokes, so maybe even increasing the exposure to the brand. They probably are both pretty pleased
                  I reckon we'll be calling the RSA the RSA long after RSA have ended their sponsorship...

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                  • #24
                    I think Aye Right would go close in this - no idea if he will be aimed here. Horse is obviously flying this season - ran in the RSA last year and has also ran at Cheltenham over hurdles. Reportedly having a break now and be out again in the spring. Would be a decent each way price due to the small yard.

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                    • #25
                      One for the team has started quite nicely over fences for Nick Williams, plenty of ability over hurdles and they won a festival handicap with siruh du lac a couple of years ago

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                      • #26
                        Coo Star Sivola too

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                        • #27
                          Yes I forgot about coo star Sivola - even better!
                          Last edited by jackh50; 2 December 2020, 02:07 PM.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                            Hennessy decide to stop putting money in to the sport, yet still get the benefits and credit a few years on?

                            I wonder how long that'll last for..... the years and years of money shouldn't be forgotten, but that's a bit harsh on Ladbrokes isn't it

                            Then again, people call it the Hennessy then people discuss it actually being the Ladbrokes, so maybe even increasing the exposure to the brand. They probably are both pretty pleased
                            As an ad planner the main benefit of sponsorship is to build those System 1 network of associations (source: Kannhemann) so things come to mind quicker. For example Guinness build a long term association with rugby. They then don't pay the hefty fees for the World Cup, but over 50% of people believe they did because Guinness = rugby in people's minds.

                            People already associate bookies with racing, so it's silly to sponsor races imo. Having done some work in the sector, bookies sponsor stuff/buy stuff purely to stop other bookies having it rather than for any real benefit to themselves.

                            And I've now outed myself as David Oglivy

                            (It was harsh on Ladbrokes)

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                            • #29
                              IIRC, there’s a lot of previous Cheltenham form in placed horses in this race.

                              Discorama was 2nd in the 4 miler, and then 3rd in this last year.
                              holywell won the pertemps, then won the ultima in ‘14 and runner up in ‘16.
                              vintage clouds 3rd in 2018, 2nd in ‘19


                              kildisart is definitely a horse I have my eye on. Ran off 150 at the festival, now only 153. Get that mark back a couple more lbs and think he’ll be good come March
                              Last edited by dannycraigpirates; 2 December 2020, 03:17 PM.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by dannycraigpirates View Post
                                kildisart is definitely a horse I have my eye on. Ran off 150 at the festival, now only 153. Get that mark back a couple more lbs and think he’ll be good come March
                                They may well have been using the Hennessy as the starting point for the 'ratings crash' that he needs but I'm confused why they started the horse out over hurdles at the Charlie Hall meeting, why not run the horse in the inadequate Charlie Hall itself ?

                                Interesting Kildisart opened last season on 156 and after several poor runs had 150 for the Ultima, clever planning or just a result on Ben Paulings horses being out of form for most of the year, I don't know the answer to this but I am of the view that novices are becoming increasingly better handicapped for festival handicaps and that'll be where I focus my efforts...

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