Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase - formerly the Browns Advisory

[ToniC]

No Conflated according to Eddie O'Leary

Ah it’s a kick in the balls but to be fair he was harshly treated by the handicapper and I went off him a bit when he was slapped with 5lb. Assemble of theirs has a good each way chance if getting round now Joseph’s runners are back in form. Going to Cheltenham with 2 Fs next to your name I couldn’t blame anybody for being put off but it looked like a tired fall in Limerick when Joseph’s were badly out of form, then just a silly mistake at the DRF. He’s generally an ok jumper.

[ComplyOrDie]

No Conflated according to Eddie O'Leary

[ToniC]

Only 3 Irish trained horses have won this race since 2010, and 7 of the 11 winners in that timeframe had had a run already at Cheltenham that season (6 of those in an intermediate trip handicap Chase) - the 4 that didn’t include empire of dirt, the storyteller & road to respect: only one British trained winner of this in the last 11 renewals hadn’t run at the course already that season.

losing the last 2 meetings will have prevented a lot of horses taking up intended engagements here as part of their prep, negating the advantage of a recent spin around the course that a lot of the British runners may have otherwise held over the Irish ones that generally wouldn’t have travelled over anyway.

I thought this was quite interesting, then I realised that the head of the market is currently dominated by Irish horses with sexy profiles, so it may be quite meaningless at the moment, though the markets probably due a bit of a shakeup tomorrow & again after 48 hour decs so it could be worth baring in mind if there are some GB trained horses that are strong in the market.

[Kevloaf]

Helps when you've had everything handed to you on a plate. Most of those achievements are on the flat.

He's underacheived in NH given the ammunition he's had. Looks like he's losing interest in NH. I don't think being out of form all season is some grand plot but hope he wins the Grand Annual.

Same thing that'll be thrown at Patrick when he ends up in that position.

Not disagreeing that it helps, not ever commented on whether he deserves it or not.

Just the way it goes, doesn't stop him being excellent.


I also don't think he's been out of form all season on purpose, however I'd be happy with a narrative that they've aimed to peak in the Spring rather than over the Winter.

We'll see

[Exar Essay]

Helps when you've had everything handed to you on a plate.

That'll help here then

[germanshepherd]

Helps when you've had everything handed to you on a plate. Most of those achievements are on the flat.

He's underacheived in NH given the ammunition he's had. Looks like he's losing interest in NH. I don't think being out of form all season is some grand plot but hope he wins the Grand Annual.

[Kevloaf]

Stable form must be a concern.

Future G.O.A.T doesn't need to justify his stable form to a dog.

Edwulf and Ivanovic G are 2 Cheltenham winners to add to his tally too, unofficially, but both winners IMO
and Sir Erec. And his actual winners aren't listed below at Cheltenham.



JOB=GOD




Major wins as a trainer


Ireland

• Irish Derby - (1) - Latrobe (2018)
• Moyglare Stud Stakes – (1) – Intricately (2016)
• National Stakes – (1) – Thunder Moon (2020)
• Matron Stakes – (1) – Iridessa (2019)
• Pretty Polly Stakes - (1) - Iridessa (2019)
• Irish Gold Cup - (1) - Edwulf (2018)
• Racing Post Novice Chase - (1) - Le Richebourg (2018)
• Arkle Novice Chase - (1) - Le Richebourg (2019)
• Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle - (1) - Tower Bridge (2018)
• Spring Juvenile Hurdle - (2) - Sir Erec (2019), A Wave of the Sea (2020)
• Drinmore Novice Chase - (1) - Fakir D’oudairies (2019)

Australia

• Melbourne Cup – (2) – Rekindling (2017), Twilight Payment (2020)

Great Britain

• St Leger Stakes - (1) Galileo Chrome (2020)
• Fillies' Mile - (2) - Iridessa (2018), Pretty Gorgeous (2020)

United States

• Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - (1) - Iridessa (2019)

[FinalFurlong91]

12% in the last 14 days isn't great, but it wouldn't worry me, or stop me betting on the right horse of his. I generally don't worry too much about stable form pre Cheltenham for known target trainers like JOB. He's known for it and let's not forget, a lot of the form pre-Cheltenham is based on horses that wouldn't be anywhere near good enough to run at Cheltenham, with all the best ones tucked away.

12% is in line with his career jumps strike rate and hes having a few winners and plenty of places

I'm not worried at all

He was in shocking form the first few months of the season and consequently has a stable full of well handicapped horses to go to war with at Cheltenham

[charlie]

Stable form must be a concern.

12% in the last 14 days isn't great, but it wouldn't worry me, or stop me betting on the right horse of his. I generally don't worry too much about stable form pre Cheltenham for known target trainers like JOB. He's known for it and let's not forget, a lot of the form pre-Cheltenham is based on horses that wouldn't be anywhere near good enough to run at Cheltenham, with all the best ones tucked away.

[germanshepherd]

Was just coming on to post about the sea of blue

Think hes a great shout

Stable form must be a concern.

[FinalFurlong91]

Been smashed up today. Into single figures in places, I can't find anything that's been said though.

Was just coming on to post about the sea of blue

Think hes a great shout

[charlie]

Added A Wave Of The Sea @ 16/1 NRNB.

JOB has quite a few options for the Grand Annual, and a Leinster National entry would indicate a step up in trip is on the cards.

I think a mark of 142 and 10-6 could leave him very well handicapped if he can creep in.

Been smashed up today. Into single figures in places, I can't find anything that's been said though.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm really coming around to the A Wave of the sea shout made a few pages back

Id be hopeful the step up in trip will eke out a few pounds of improvement

[DenmanSacre]

Whilst true we Cant just back every elliot handicapper

We have to pick the ones we think are ahead of their mark

As i said in my post conflated doesn't strike me as one thats miles ahead of his mark off 149

Don't think hes one who's been hiding his ability, like a coko beach or run wild fred were before the theyestes

My feeling is that there will be something better handicapped in the race than him

An opinion i also have about Farclas another elliot horse

A stat I saw recently was that every Irish winner of a handicap last year was put up in rating less than the average for the Irish horses in the race. So if the average Irish horse was put up 3 pounds in the weight, the winner was only put up 1 or 2 pounds. Not sure if it was the same for prior years or even if the stat is correct but Conflated being put up 5 pounds from his Irish rating can't be a positive for his chances.

[Kevloaf]

Whilst true we Cant just back every elliot handicapper

We have to pick the ones we think are ahead of their mark

As i said in my post conflated doesn't strike me as one thats miles ahead of his mark off 149

Don't think hes one who's been hiding his ability, like a coko beach or run wild fred were before the theyestes

My feeling is that there will be something better handicapped in the race than him

An opinion i also have about Farclas another elliot horse

I'd say that's a case easier to make at 8/1 than when he was 18/1, which clouds things for me regarding his chances and desire to get involved in the debate

....and you could back every Elliott handicapper and go close to making a profit (definitely would have done in the analysis I'd done last year)..... depending on how well you've used NRNB




If you're interested (ha), the ones I'd like the most away from that stable, would be Fils D'Oudaries, Cepage, Happy Diva or Mister Whitaker

Will not nail any colours to the mast just yet though