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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by riccirich View Post
    This is my first year betting antepost and as someone who also doesnt have Appreciate it backed for the supreme ive been thinking about getting him in a roll up soon enough, but what are these specials that ive seen people talking about waiting for? Will there be price boosts for him on the day or another thing I heard is that some horses get boosted for a certain amount of time at preview nights?
    Usually a few.specials a couple of weeks before or on the day, think William Hill gave all money back.one year if in first seven or maybe it was Skybet. Think Skybet gave a free ?10 bet.on first day each day, was ?20 the year before that. Think thats right but sure members may have a better memorary.

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    • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
      Am I alone in thinking Appreciate It isn't a complete shoe in? I think he's the right favourite, but should it be 5/2, 7/1 and 16/1 bar?!

      I still think he'd be a better horse in the Ballymore, and there's a good chance he'll be beaten by something with a better turn of foot. It's just one of those races and markets where I really want to be against the favourite.
      The way that I always look at it is that with the Supreme is it is just as much of a staying race as the Ballymore with the speed that they go at during the race. The horses are none stop for the whole race and hardly get a breather in. Ruby has mentioned this quite often over the years when he's given his opinion on the race that you have to stay much further than the 2 miles to win the Supreme.

      I think that AI would be just as affective in both races the way that they are both run here. He jumps so quickly and will stay longer than anyone (bar Ferny) up that hill. If there was a fence up the hill last year there may have been a different victor

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      • I get that WTL. You have to stay in both races at Championship pace, but one is still half a mile further than the other, and other horses stay well too. Over the shorter trip though, it's those that can travel through there race that contend, and of those still in contention the one that can get up the hill the fastest wins.

        For what it's worth, the two Fry horses have also visually put in performances that potentially fit the bill. The big conundrum is there will be some nice horses turn up that may also be at their best in a fast run race that haven't had the chance to advertise it yet. There haven't been many trials run this season where they gone an end to end gallop, which is partly why the market looks the way it does. It's very possible we have some under the radar lurkers this season.

        Appreciate It won a race where it was clear that being up with the pace was an advantage, and was helped by Ballyadam clearly being out of sorts. The big advantage with him is you know he's going to be in the box and others will have to get past him, so you can be sure he'll run his race. He won't be a hard luck story, which Shishkin easliy could have been last season.
        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          Right....

          Is Appreciate It going to be 11/4 or bigger, between now and the Supreme?
          • Is he going to the DRF? (I can't find any musings from Mullins)
          • Will bookies look to take him on (almost certainly yes)
          • Will he have contracted before they do that?

          I reckon this PP NRNB special at 11/4 might hold for a few days again meaning I can get a decent stake on.
          I’ve only been able to use this once so far with a max restriction... has this been different to you?

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          • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
            Appreciate It won a race where it was clear that being up with the pace was an advantage, and was helped by Ballyadam clearly being out of sorts.
            I feel this has been said on this forum so often now that it seems to be common understanding but I’ve not seen any trainer comments that suggested any specific issue they found with him. Have I missed something in this regard?

            Scooby made a pretty compelling case that Ballyadam’s pre Christmas form was likely not as good as many hoped and this was Gordon Elliot’s comments pre race on his Betfair blog:

            ‘Ballyadam looks to have a leading chance having won his first two runs this season which included the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse last month. He didn't jump wonderfully in the Royal Bond but Jack was keen to get in amongst horses and teach him something that day so the experience he picked up there should help him sharpen up with regard to his hurdling. He's a very talented horse who I hope will be up there with the top novices at the end of the season but this race should tell us plenty more about his prospects as he is taking on some very smart types. I'm expecting him to be right there at the finish.’

            Is it not possible that he just ran his race?

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            • He hasn't said that about Fury Road, Sire de Berlais, Abacadabras, etc, or all the others that clearly ran well below their previous form over Christmas either RC. All we can do is make an assessment based on what we saw. To my eye beaten easily into fourth behind Irascible and Keskonrisk is not the same form he'd showm previously. Also the ratings given to him from every ratings source confirms that. So combined with so many from the yard not firing make my position reasonable I think? Even if it doesn't ultimately prove to be correct.

              He may run poorly again next time. Who knows? Certainly there's a question mark that wasn't there before. Then again he could bounce back and fulfil the promise he showed previously. As you've seen on here before, I'm always prepared to forgive them once. Never twice.
              Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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              • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                He hasn't said that about Fury Road, Sire de Berlais, Abacadabras, etc, or all the others that clearly ran well below their previous form over Christmas either RC. All we can do is make an assessment based on what we saw. To my eye beaten easily into fourth behind Irascible and Keskonrisk is not the same form he'd showm previously. Also the ratings given to him from every ratings source confirms that. So combined with so many from the yard not firing make my position reasonable I think? Even if it doesn't ultimately prove to be correct.

                He may run poorly again next time. Who knows? Certainly there's a question mark that wasn't there before. Then again he could bounce back and fulfil the promise he showed previously. As you've seen on here before, I'm always prepared to forgive them once. Never twice.
                Fair response, my personal feeling was he ended up trailing in fourth as he gave his all to go with AI, couldn’t do it and so tired on the run in and was passed by a couple. While you may well be right and there was something up with the horse it just seems to me that many seem to think that was a certainty and feel they might be disappointed if they are expecting him to markedly improve next time.

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                • I think the thing about not being a certainty is fair enough. I wasn't in that camp either. But I'm sure he travels sweetly in his races, but he folded at Christmas, and it was too far out for it to be normal.

                  I suspect Scooby's reservations are the same as mine, in that he has been talked up wihtout sufficient evidence, and he looks to do it on the bridle, so may get found up the hill. I won't and can't discount him on the evidence at Leopardstown though, and I rate him as a 'contender' still.
                  Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post

                    Fair response, my personal feeling was he ended up trailing in fourth as he gave his all to go with AI, couldn’t do it and so tired on the run in and was passed by a couple. While you may well be right and there was something up with the horse it just seems to me that many seem to think that was a certainty and feel they might be disappointed if they are expecting him to markedly improve next time.
                    I'm with you cowboy.
                    Likelihood is that Ballyadam is not quite good enough.
                    Appreciate It looked to have more gears than all of his rivals the last day and ran away from them easily, and this was even more impressive for a horse that some think is not as speedy as others, as the last hurdle was ommitted, so was a long run in.
                    Appreciate It's biggest danger is himself (and his jockey), overdoing it. Like they did in the bumper (was clearly the best horse in that race IMO)

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                    • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                      I'm with you cowboy.
                      Likelihood is that Ballyadam is not quite good enough.
                      Appreciate It looked to have more gears than all of his rivals the last day and ran away from them easily, and this was even more impressive for a horse that some think is not as speedy as others, as the last hurdle was ommitted, so was a long run in.
                      Appreciate It's biggest danger is himself (and his jockey), overdoing it. Like they did in the bumper (was clearly the best horse in that race IMO)
                      Very much my thoughts too. Was firmly with Ballyadam at the start of the season and wanted him to be a star, but he's probably not good enough yet, maybe in time but certainly off my mind now for the Supreme. I've just watched the race back and Appreciate It has pissed up, like a really really good horse. Good point re the hurdle omission, should have hindered him but didn't. He's a really good horse. I remember Ted Walsh waxing lyrical pre-bumper about this horse with all the usual 'wont get beat' crap, but they have all clearly thought he's some horse for some time and he was the best horse in that race. I actually think there's some juice in 11/4, certainly a good price for a few roll ups this weekend.

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                      • Fallout following defeat of Mullins horses in the Moscow Flyer....


                        He’s a complete novice and I don’t think that was the real Ganapathi, he could easily improve another ten pounds with race experience.

                        Both he and third home Power Of Pause looked like they could do with another furlong or two while Echoes Of Rain, dropped back into mares’ races, could be one to pick up a nice prize somewhere. She needs to learn a lot more about jump racing as opposed to flat racing.

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                        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                          Fallout following defeat of Mullins horses in the Moscow Flyer....


                          He’s a complete novice and I don’t think that was the real Ganapathi, he could easily improve another ten pounds with race experience.

                          Both he and third home Power Of Pause looked like they could do with another furlong or two while Echoes Of Rain, dropped back into mares’ races, could be one to pick up a nice prize somewhere. She needs to learn a lot more about jump racing as opposed to flat racing.
                          Saw this earlier regarding Power Of Pause, he's one I would like for the Martin Pipe. He's rated 136 (I think) so would get in easily enough I'd imagine.

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                          • This is my first real look at the race at some bigger prices. Keskonrisk very impressive before christmas, 3rd place against appreciate it considering JOBs horses really out of form then. The race has a really good record for supreme. 28/1 ? Am i Mad?

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                            • No, I would say the first part of your name is apt to your post.
                              hes a horse I like for the supreme as a lively outsider

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                              • Originally posted by punterorplonker View Post
                                This is my first real look at the race at some bigger prices. Keskonrisk very impressive before christmas, 3rd place against appreciate it considering JOBs horses really out of form then. The race has a really good record for supreme. 28/1 ? Am i Mad?
                                I loved his bumper win and his maiden hurdle win also, real good attitude to win. 28/1 is a very fair price as an each way bet - the trainer maybe my main concern and wouldn't be suprised to see him up in trip .. but if you can 28/1 nrnb it's a decent bet ew.

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