Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Saxon Warrior]

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 18th


CHELTENHAM
Wednesday, March 12th

THE JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1)
(Premier Hcap)

TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 150,000
Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
GBP 84,405 to the winning horse
The second to receive GBP 31,800,
the third GBP 15,915,
the fourth GBP 7,950,
the fifth GBP 3,990,
the sixth GBP 1,995,
the seventh GBP 990
and the eighth GBP 510

for five yrs old and upwards

TWO MILES ABOUT HALF A FURLONG (2m 62yds)

Enter by noon, February 18th and pay GBP 225 stake
Confirm by noon, March 6th and pay GBP 525
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 10th

Weights published on..........February 23rd
Penalties, after February 23rd, 2025, a winner of a steeple chase 5lb
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)

PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of FOUR times in Steeple Chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code

2025 Jazzy Matty 6-10-7 15/2 Cian Collins - Danny Gilligan RPR 142
2024. Unexpected Party 9-10-10 12/1 Dan Skelton - Harry Skelton RPR 149

2023. Maskada (MARE) 7-11-1 22/1 H. de Bromhead - Darragh O'Keefe RPR 155

2022. Global Citizen 10-10-6 28/1 Ben Pauling - Kielan Woods RPR 146

2021. Sky Pirate 8-11-6 14/1, Jonjo O'Neill - Nick Scholfield RPR 159

2020. Chosen Mate 7-11-4 7/2F. Gordon Elliott Davy Russell RPR 158

2019. Croco Bay. 12-10-12. 66/1 Ben Case. Kielan Woods. RPR 148

2018. Le Prezien. 7-11-8. 15/2. Paul Nicholls. Barry Geraghty. RPR 160

2017. Rock The World. 9-11-5. 10/1. Mrs JHarrington. Robbie Power RPR 156

2016. Solar Impulse. 6-11-0. 28/1 Paul Nicholls. Sam T-Davies. RPR 151

2015. Next Sensation. 8-11-2. 16/1. M. Scudamore T Scudamore. RPR 156

2014. Savello. 8-11-5. 16/1. A J Martin. Davy Russell. RPR 157

2013. Alderwood. 9-10-11. 3/1F. T. Mullins. A P McCoy. RPR 159


2025 1st OR 135, 2nd OR 144, 3rd OR 134, 4th OR 151 - High OR 156 Low OR 130 20 ran
2024 1st OR 138, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 142, 4th OR 145 - High 152, Low 132 16 ran
2023 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 140, 3rd OR 139, 4th OR 149 - High 155, Low OR 139 19 ran
2022 1st OR 136, 2nd OR 155, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 153 - High 156, Low OR 136 16 ran
2021 1st OR 152, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 140 - High 158, Low OR 136. 19 ran
2020 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 148, 4th OR 150 - High 155, Low OR 140. 18 ran
-----------------maximum field reduced to 20 -----------------------------------------
2019 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 148, 3rd OR 136, 4th OR 153 - High 153, Low OR 134. 20 ran
2018 1st OR 150, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 141 - High 154, Low OR 139. 22 ran
2017 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 142, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 143 - High 154, Low OR 135. 24 ran
2016 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 146, 4th OR 150 - High 152, Low OR 137. 24 ran
2015 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 142 - High 153, Low OR 130. 20 ran
2014 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 142, 4th OR 142 - High 154, Low OR 136. 23 ran

--------

….2025 TREND ANALYSIS for reference;

1) AGE;
There has been a mixed bag of winners in terms of age in recent years, with ten-year-old Global Citizen claiming success in 2022 and seven-year-old Maskada winning in 2023.

However, the trends since 2013 indicate that nine of the last 12 winners have been aged between seven and nine. No horse younger than seven has won the race since six-year-old Solar Impulse for Paul Nicholls in 2016.

2) WINNING EXPERIENC4
All 20 previous winners of the Grand Annual know what it’s like to get their nose in front, with all having recorded between three and seven career victories.

Meanwhile, five of the last 12 winners have recorded a success over fences before lining up in the Grand Annual. Both of those trends bode well for Evan Williams-trained Libberty Hunter.

3) OFFICIAL RATINGS;
The trends indicate that horses rated 138+ have won eleven of the last 12 renewals of the Grand Annual. Meanwhile, the lowest-rated winner over this period was Global Citizen off 136 in 2022.

Each of the last three winners have been rated between 136 and 142, while the highest-rated winner of the race since 2019 was 152-rated Sky Pirate for Jonjo O’Neill in 2021.

4) CHELTENHAM EXPERIENCE;
Horses that have had runs at Cheltenham previously have a strong strike-rate in the Grand Annual. Nine of the victors since 2013 had made at least one previous start at the home of jumps racing.

However, winning experience at the track isn’t essential, with just four winners since 2013 having a previous success at the course to their name.

5) WEIGHT;
Nine of the 12 winners of the Grand Annual have carried between 10st 11lbs and 11st 6lb. But, those carrying under 11st have fared better in recent renewals, with three of the last six winners carrying lighter weights.

In recent history, Le Prezien carried the heaviest weight to victory when carrying 11-8 for the Paul Nicholls team in 2018.



Positives - Pre-2025 Festival

* 12 of the past 16 winners were novices or second-season chasers
* 11 of the past 14 winners were rated between 138-147
* 8 of the past 11 winners carried 11-0 or more


* JP McManus has won 4 of the past 20 renewals (also had 9 runners-up since 2003)
* Last year’s favourite is 3-10 during the past 18 years
* 12 of the past 19 winners were aged between 6-8

* 8 of the past 16 winners had run 9 times or less over fences
* 8 of the past 19 winners had run in the race previously
* 6 of the past 16 winners were novices
* 4 of the past 21 winners were trained by Paul Nicholls
* 3 of the past 8 winners had run over hurdles earlier in the season

* Respect course form
* Respect those who have had a short break



Negatives - Pre-2025 Festival

* Only 2 of the past 16 winners were older than 9
* Only 2 of the past 16 winners had run in more than 13 chases
* Only 2 of the past 20 winners were favourite
* Only 2 of the past 21 winners won last time out
* Winning a handicap earlier in the season is often a negative
* Willie Mullins is 0-9 this century

---------

Early Entries in the Grand Annual at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival:

1. American Mike (IRE)
2. An Peann Dearg (IRE)
3. Asta La Pasta (IRE)
4. Cabhfuilfungi (IRE)
5. Calico (GER)
6. Conyers Hill (IRE)
7. Dancing On My Own (IRE)
8. Dee Capo (FR)
9. Dr T J Eckleburg (IRE)
10. Editeur du Gite (FR)
11. Edwardstone
12. Firefox (IRE)
13. First Street
14. Fringill Dike (IRE)
15. Gaelic Arc (IRE)
16. General Medrano (IRE)
17. Gunsight Ridge
18. Ha d’Or (FR)
19. Harper’s Brook (IRE)
20. Hunters Yarn (IRE)
21. Hypotenus
22. JPR One (IRE)
23. Jasko des Dames (FR)
24. Jazzy Matty (FR)
25. Kalif du Berlais (FR)
26. Libberty Hunter
27. Martator (FR)
28. Midnight It Is
29. My Mate Mozzie (IRE)
30. Nells Son
31. Path d’Oroux (FR)
32. Pinkerton (IRE)
33. Primoz (IRE)
34. Sa Fureur (IRE)
35. San Salvador (IRE)
36. Sans Bruit (FR)
37. So Scottish (FR)
38. Springwell Bay
39. The King of Prs (IRE)
40. The Other Mozzie (IRE)
41. Third Time Lucki (IRE)
42. Touch Me Not (IRE)
43. Traprain Law (FR)
44. Unexpected Party (FR)
45. Western Zephyr (IRE)
46. What’s Up Darling (IRE)

[Istabraq]

33 years of duck eggs for me this race, may well back all 20 on the day just to get the monkey off my back…

[Winging The Last]

Does anyone have data of trainers stats at the festival like runners by year etc?

I just want to know about Noel Meade as I'm pretty interested in Thedevilscoachman but I have a feeling that he doesn't really send many horses to Cheltenham (especially in recent years)

[ToniC]

Does anyone have data of trainers stats at the festival like runners by year etc?

I just want to know about Noel Meade as I'm pretty interested in Thedevilscoachman but I have a feeling that he doesn't really send many horses to Cheltenham (especially in recent years)

He’s had 2 runners in this since 2010 - Ned Buntline twice for JP - came 2nd then 4th.

This is a race JP seems to target and thedevilscoachman would fit the profile of one of his you’d want to be on the right side of - I talk about JP runners here briefly in my trainer stats thread in the members area

[Winging The Last]

He’s had 2 runners in this since 2010 - Ned Buntline twice for JP - came 2nd then 4th.

This is a race JP seems to target and thedevilscoachman would fit the profile of one of his you’d want to be on the right side of - I talk about JP runners here briefly in my trainer stats thread in the members area

Not as many as I had hoped for then but what I had expected.

Hopefully JP and team can twist his arm this year with Thedevilscoachman, but I don't have a huge amount of confidence in that as last year it seems like Meade won the battle to keep him at home when he was one of the favourites for the County.

Thanks for the heads up I will have a look into your thread

[Fouroverthrutwo]

A link to Toni's excellent trainer stats -

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/members-only-cheltenham-antepost-diaries/316882-trainer-stats-race-by-race-2010-onward

[MadeinJapan]

Not sure where to put this one up so gone for this thread as his 2 runs of late will have been at 2m (3 after Saturday), could also be a potential in the Plate I'd imagine too? I've heard nothing about Cheltenham for him & he's not priced up anywhere so have asked a few to price him up here & for Saturday and any race double...

ADRIMEL - he's pretty quirky in that his form is practically all 1s or PUs, some of those PUs are exaggerated however. Last year's Festival, he led the Bartlett field the whole way round until 2 out where he tired getting up the hill and didn't see out 3m. Jumped well & travelled strongly throughout before markedly fading when Vanillier past him up the straight and Richard Johnson immediately pulled him up. Post race noting he lost a shoe. For a long time gave me a great run for my money at 80/1 on the second leg had doubled him up with from his prior Warwick win. The PU after came at Aintree behind My Drogo which probably came too soon after his Bartlett endeavours,

2 chases so far this season - PU first (never travelled) & then 1 (blinkers applied seemed to do the trick). He's out again at Newcastle this weekend re-opposing all of the runners he beat last time out & one other. He won't have the pull in the weights this time round as he did before but he won by 15 lengths so not sure it will matter.

He's trained by Tom Lacey so will be miles under the radar but given his run in the Bartlett last year think he warrants consideration here should he turn up. Best Chase OR is 139 so assume he'd be near the bottom of the handicap should he not get put up again?

[Brooksie]

Does anyone have data of trainers stats at the festival like runners by year etc?

I just want to know about Noel Meade as I'm pretty interested in Thedevilscoachman but I have a feeling that he doesn't really send many horses to Cheltenham (especially in recent years)

I quite like the look of coachman at 25s, eye catching run behind ferny, runs this Sunday and then I could see another run early February for a mark. I think they know the Arkle is out of reach, but I'd like to think they'd come here off a handy mark if playing their cards right.

[darlojim]

Nice of Mark Walsh to put thedevilscoachman straight through about 5 fences.

[taylorch1990]

Thedevilscoachman and Gentleman De Mee seem to have very similar profiles for this race. Both finished behind Ferny on Chase debut then both finished second to another Mullins runner next time out. Both JP owned as well.

[darlojim]

Thedevilscoachman and Gentleman De Mee seem to have very similar profiles for this race. Both finished behind Ferny on Chase debut then both finished second to another Mullins runner next time out. Both JP owned as well.

Yepp both very much on the radar for this race for me.

[DenmanSacre]

I couldn't have Thedevilscoachman in this. Jumping needs to improve loads but over hurdles, his best runs were those were the pace was slow early on and he was able to use his pace late on to win. The 2 times he went up in grade, pace was stronger early on and he fell to pieces. Cheltenham would be completely wrong for him IMO.

I think the British hold the cards in this at the moment.

[JamieSensible]

I couldn't have Thedevilscoachman in this. Jumping needs to improve loads but over hurdles, his best runs were those were the pace was slow early on and he was able to use his pace late on to win. The 2 times he went up in grade, pace was stronger early on and he fell to pieces. Cheltenham would be completely wrong for him IMO.

I think the British hold the cards in this at the moment.

Who's your standout British horse for this? I've got Before Midnight in the book but nothing else atm.

[Lobos]

[QUOTE=JamieSensible;n343578]

Who's your standout British horse for this? I've got Before Midnight in the book but nothing else atm.[/QUOTE
Impossible to say until entries are out

[Eggs]

[QUOTE=Lobos;n343592]

Who's your standout British horse for this? I've got Before Midnight in the book but nothing else atm.[/QUOTE
Impossible to say until entries are out

….name checked as a possible for this by Sam Thomas in his stable tour.