General Chat

[Star Of A Gunner]

I have every cash out back this morning.

[robith]

So in case you guys are horse betting purists, the chat I've seen on twitter is that the 365 issues are Euros related, apparently they've taken to shutting down My Bets during big games meaning people can't cash out

[DeeBee]

Looking back on this years festival, its fair to say that most of my wins (and decent wins) had all been placed by this time last year.. if not by June! A lot of the forum were sweet on Shiskin, Sir Gerhard, Bob Olinger, Monkfish, Quilixios, Appreciate It (albeit the wrong race) at some nice prices... and all they did was get shorter and shorter and look more solid as the season went on... there werent many more horses that appeared that made me think i wasnt on to a winner for a number of these and i generally felt very confident.

My question is was last year a one off? How much was impacted by COVID? Trainers not progressing horses as much as they might normally have, restrictions of sales, races, movement etc. Or was it simply that we were looking at an above average bunch in each of their spheres. I remember numerous comments along the lines of you might wait 5 years or so for a horse the calibre of Envoi Allen to come along but then we get 2 more in the shape of Shiskin and Monkfish at the same time.

Are the likes of Appreciate It and Bob Olinger simply going to follow that? And to a lesser extent possibly Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit? Has racing just evolved that much more in recent times with the dominance of Mullins and Elliot and the amount of money owners are willing to spend on horses mean that there are always going to be a standout.

This year has been a lot harder to be in the same position as last year purely from a price perspective. As always I know there are plenty of winners out there who we havent even seen yet, but from a novice chase perspective and championship level - do we really need to look beyond the head of the market?

[somer1]

any news on B365 Somer ??.

Still no cash out for ante post bets. Not sure about normal bets as not placed one with them since. Might have a look when I get home.

[Istabraq]

My question is was last year a one off? How much was impacted by COVID?

It's a question I'm sure we've all asked ourselves countless times.

My take is that in a normal year the best horses at Cheltenham would have gone on to prove their abilities at Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown and as those meetings were abandoned the prices were effectively frozen, had Monkfish gone to Punchestown and hacked up he won't have been 8/1 for the 3m nov chase in May and June.
I know not everyone got it right so I don't want to say it was easy to spot x, y, z and risk half the forum launching their laptops through the window, but getting the right target (as always) is key and it seemed that a larger than normal number of FJs hit it.
I got Appreciate It wrong, thankfully many here got him right, but his presence in the Ballymore market meant Bob Ollinger was well under the radar for the majority of lockdown #1, like you DeeBee April/May/June 2020 was when most of my AP bets went down as we were all deprived of natural challenge and entertainment and it seemed the prices weren't moving, whether this was a deliberate strategy or turnover was so low or possibly bookmakers furloughed market makers I have no idea, but the fact so many well fancied horses retained their prices into the Autumn was a surprise and not something we can/should expect every year.
I know most in here look at getting on early/building a book but the turnover for bookmakers on, for example, the Mares hurdle in a June is minimal so although you and I can get decent sums down it is still negligible turnover is the bigger scheme of things for the bookmakers.
There was also a huge lack of development opportunity for young horses between March and October, an entire generation of bumper horses didn't see a racecourse and started their careers six plus months later than planned, so for the 20/21 novice hurdle division it was always going to be the novices and bumper horses from the previous season.
It was a freak period even if we didn't realise it at the time, throw in the Gordon Elliott debacle, Brexit and the travel chaos for Irish trainers as well as the ongoing Covid issues all of which contributed to the smaller fields and the pieces just kind of fell into place....

[That Horse]

Still no cash out for ante post bets. Not sure about normal bets as not placed one with them since. Might have a look when I get home.

Cash out has reappeared on my account, and I do mean on antepost bets.

Might just take a while to filter through to all accounts

[Spectre]

I completely agree with that synopsis. I think you've completely nailed it Istabraq.

The only thing I'd add is with regards prices. I like to get my book in shape early because prices only head one way on the fancied horses. The only thing that changes that is an injury, a significant reversal during the season, or the emergence of an unexpected horse that goes to the head of a market. In the open divisions the latter rarely happens because the form is there for everyone to see. It's only really the novice hurdle markets that are genuinely volatile.

For me there are two key times to get on early antepost. Immediately after the Festival, and before the publication and preview season starts. I try to get as much of my book sorted out early post-Festival, and I'll do some balancing of bets and returns during September.

I do think it's become increasingly important to have the basis of what you want backed before the end of September. Tipsters and social media moves markets. It starts late September and cranks up into overdrive through October. The bookies don't waste any opportunity to cut anything that's tipped up by anyone of influence, so essentially you have to be on before they publish or post.

I always think the plan should be to back a horse before it becomes unbackable, and I don't care if a horse is 4/1 now for example. I just stake accordingly. But if I've missed the price and the horse is 7/4 I then leave it alone, and regard is as one for the multiples.

Sure, I make a few mistakes by backing early, but that is significantly overridden by the value I have. Mostly I have cashout, so if I make an error I can correct it easily with little or no impact. Scrolling through my diary now shows that the majority of the horses I've backed are already trading shorter, and most of the remainder are at the same or a similar price, with hardly anything available at a better price. That tells me my strategy works, and I've no need to change it. There's no point in trying to be clever guessing which ones will shorten and which will remian the same. If you're on the right horses they always shorten anyway.

[Middle_Of_March]

So in case you guys are horse betting purists, the chat I've seen on twitter is that the 365 issues are Euros related, apparently they've taken to shutting down My Bets during big games meaning people can't cash out

I can confirm this. It’s very very annoying tbh as I had a good betbuilder trixie a couple of weeks ago and the third was looking in and one had already won. Would’ve been a good cashout at half-time but never got to know what it was. Eventually it lost by one home team corner.

[Istabraq]

More often than not laying the last leg of your multis on the exchange will yield better returns than taking the cashout available, so if you regularly take cashouts offered and these are becoming unavailable you can always lock in your profit by using exchanges…

[DeeBee]

Thanks Istabraq and Spectre with last year being my first big hitting year, it felt a bit too easy looking back when i know from my betting experience it shouldnt be.. i did feel as though COVID must have played a big part and horses werent progressing as they otherwise might but glad to have your inputs.

I think i know where to focus my bets a bit more from here on.. it feels as though targets might be one of the hardest to nail down this year, something we got lucky with last year.. hopefully the same goes for this year and Appreciate It and Bob Olinger in particular continue their success in their expected races

[Kevloaf]

With handsight and ignoring handicaps (Elliott) my gut feeling is that it was a bit of a perfect storm... but I'm naturally quite cautious and after it goes well I always think that'll never happen again, and then try and prove myself wrong for the next 11 months

[Churchtownboy]

Does anyone here lay off their bet on the exchange to cover their stake instead of waiting to cash out.

[Saxon Warrior]

Does anyone here lay off their bet on the exchange to cover their stake instead of waiting to cash out.

I've never done it.

[knockando]

Does anyone here lay off their bet on the exchange to cover their stake instead of waiting to cash out.

Where I have the opportunity to do so and feel it’s the right call - I have done yes. Most recently was when I backed Santa Barbara at 8/1 win for the Guineas (some may say like a mug ) on back of O’Brien stable tour and laid off my stake when reached 6/4

Is there anything in particular you’d like to know?

[robith]

With handsight and ignoring handicaps (Elliott) my gut feeling is that it was a bit of a perfect storm... but I'm naturally quite cautious and after it goes well I always think that'll never happen again, and then try and prove myself wrong for the next 11 months

I would agree Kev, regardless of the fortune of the horses getting there - I was able to make a fair amount of profit in week and the reality is I am unlikely to have that time prior to the festival to have all the research done, not during it to sit at a kind of war room to react to stuff as it happened