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  • Originally posted by EnvoyAllen View Post

    Look, the price any bookmaker would even give you on Envoi Allen running in the King George would be hovering around evens money right now - hell, he’s only 7 or 8/1 to win it 11 months in advance.

    That, of course, is the bookmakers right to cover that eventuality.

    My odds would be 50/1 on the basis that there is a 99.9% chance he will not run in the King George.

    But there is a 99.9% chance, should he be running over 3 miles, his Christmas trip will be in Leopardstown.

    I’d be sure of it.
    What’s happened to your basic maths ?
    and calculator ?

    50-1

    99.9%

    Comment


    • 50/1 is about 10x the price he should be haha. Envoi more in the mould of a Don Cossack as in he has more speed than a staying boat. Gordon had no problem going to Kempton with the Don and it will probably be the easier option next year. I’d still favour the Savill’s but wouldn’t totally dismiss the KG.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

        What’s happened to your basic maths ?
        and calculator ?

        50-1

        99.9%
        Apologies, I got it wrong.

        The chances of Envoi Allen running at Kempton on Boxing Day are 99.99999999% a no no.

        And I’ll still offer anyone 50/1 he’ll run AT Kempton.

        My betting calculator only works properly for Cheltenham.

        Apologies to anyone who thought I’d blown my maths GCSE.

        Comment


        • Hi Kevin,

          We’re sorry, we’ve had to go offline for a short time. We’re updating our website to improve your online experience. But don’t worry, we’re working really hard to get you back online as soon as possible.
          • William Hill Gaming will be offline (Monday 25th January) from approx. 5am-9am
          • William Hill Sports will be offline (Monday 25th January) from approx. 5am-3pm
          So, you won’t be able to log in to our website during these times. Apologies for any inconvenience and thank you for your patience.

          To get progress updates please check our social pages.

          Kind regards

          William Hill




          I wonder if this is to do with the issues people have been having/flagging?

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
            Hi Kevin,

            We’re sorry, we’ve had to go offline for a short time. We’re updating our website to improve your online experience. But don’t worry, we’re working really hard to get you back online as soon as possible.
            • William Hill Gaming will be offline (Monday 25th January) from approx. 5am-9am
            • William Hill Sports will be offline (Monday 25th January) from approx. 5am-3pm
            So, you won’t be able to log in to our website during these times. Apologies for any inconvenience and thank you for your patience.

            To get progress updates please check our social pages.

            Kind regards

            William Hill




            I wonder if this is to do with the issues people have been having/flagging?
            Possibly a stock check to get a number on their Cheltenham liabilities from fat jockey bets

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              Hi Kevin,

              We’re sorry, we’ve had to go offline for a short time. We’re updating our website to improve your online experience. But don’t worry, we’re working really hard to get you back online as soon as possible.
              • William Hill Gaming will be offline (Monday 25th January) from approx. 5am-9am
              • William Hill Sports will be offline (Monday 25th January) from approx. 5am-3pm
              So, you won’t be able to log in to our website during these times. Apologies for any inconvenience and thank you for your patience.

              To get progress updates please check our social pages.

              Kind regards

              William Hill




              I wonder if this is to do with the issues people have been having/flagging?
              Don't believe so Kev, as according to their Technical Team on Friday they were still investigating the Open bets problem. Let's just hope that whatever updates they do make, tomorrow don't break something else.



              Comment


              • Simon Claisse at Cheltenham is currently predicting Heavy ground for the Trials this coming weekend. If that becomes the case, I would expect to see a few high profile non runners both in the Cleeve Hurdle, Cotswold Chase and other key UK trials. I'm presuming that a few would heve benefited from Cheltenham experience and we shall also miss out on asssessing them.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Nortons who View Post
                  Simon Claisse at Cheltenham is currently predicting Heavy ground for the Trials this coming weekend. If that becomes the case, I would expect to see a few high profile non runners both in the Cleeve Hurdle, Cotswold Chase and other key UK trials. I'm presuming that a few would heve benefited from Cheltenham experience and we shall also miss out on asssessing them.
                  Probably a good idea to back a few mudlarks when entries come out tomorrow as there will be value to find if more fancied runners don't turn up

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by EnvoyAllen View Post

                    Look, the price any bookmaker would even give you on Envoi Allen running in the King George would be hovering around evens money right now - hell, he’s only 7 or 8/1 to win it 11 months in advance.

                    That, of course, is the bookmakers right to cover that eventuality.

                    My odds would be 50/1 on the basis that there is a 99.9% chance he will not run in the King George.

                    But there is a 99.9% chance, should he be running over 3 miles, his Christmas trip will be in Leopardstown.

                    I’d be sure of it.
                    So are you laying me 50s or not then? On him turning up. 50/1 you’ve said..

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post

                      So are you laying me 50s or not then? On him turning up. 50/1 you’ve said..
                      We don't have licences for this

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                        We don't have licences for this

                        Apologies Kevla.

                        May as well state I have no intention of taking the 50/1 anyway. Was just highlighting that EA is all talk. There’s no way he would lay that at 50/1. No chance.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post

                          Apologies Kevla.

                          May as well state I have no intention of taking the 50/1 anyway. Was just highlighting that EA is all talk. There’s no way he would lay that at 50/1. No chance.
                          I think the general point (without wishing to sound ‘all talk’), is “what price do you give something that will not happen?”

                          Is it 10/1, 50/1, 1000/1, 10,000/1?

                          At what point does any bookmaker offer a price to cover any eventuality?

                          We don’t know for sure yet, but we and the bookmakers believe Envoi Allen might be of the very key protagonists in the 3 mile chasing division during next season’s National Hunt season.
                          The horse is also unbeaten thus far, and has jumped 80 obstacles successfully.
                          He also sits currently at a short price of 4/5 to win his novice chase in 7 weeks time.

                          Given all of that information, historical and present, the correct price the bookmakers have to give for Envoi Allen to win the King George at Kempton in 11 months is a single figure one - all historical data on the horse leads to this.

                          That’s the data. And it has to cover the 3 mile chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

                          The reality is - simply, his next run in England post the this year’s Cheltenham festival will be next year’s Cheltenham festival, in England


                          So I’m kind of asking, what then is the price of an event ‘not happening’?





                          Comment


                          • Perhaps people would like to post their own prices what they think their take on Envoi Allen running in the 2021 King George at Kempton Park on Boxing Day is?

                            That would be a better idea.

                            I’ll stay with my 50/1 that he won’t be running in it.
                            I’ll give 10/1 Gordon Elliott doesn’t mention the words ‘King’ and ‘George’ on live tv between the beginning of next season and the time of decs (not including to confirm he won’t be running in it when asked).

                            Or I’ll give you 7/1 with SKYBet he actually wins the thing.

                            Comment


                            • 50/1 to show but 7/1 to win it

                              Comment


                              • It's massive odds on that most people don't give a shit.

                                Comment

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