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  • Originally posted by Churchtownboy View Post
    Does anyone here lay off their bet on the exchange to cover their stake instead of waiting to cash out.
    At times. It's situational for me though.
    Last edited by Spectre; 7 July 2021, 11:07 AM.
    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
      With handsight and ignoring handicaps (Elliott) my gut feeling is that it was a bit of a perfect storm... but I'm naturally quite cautious and after it goes well I always think that'll never happen again, and then try and prove myself wrong for the next 11 months
      I think that's true to a degree Kev, but the principles of building your book doesn't/shouldn't change. It may evolve based on how races and trends change, but that's all. If the basis of what you do is sound, the circumstances that unfold will dictate who big/small your profit is.

      I'm very specific about using the word 'profit' too. Anyone with a smart strategy should make money backing antepost at the Festival. It would take an enormous amount of bad, even catastrophic luck (not completely impossible), or a scattergun approach to lose. Having enough good antepost prices onboard with horses that have a genuine chance, combined with the ability to cash out/lay off, should always keep you on the right side of the ledger.

      Writing this perhaps makes things seem too simple. So I'd strongly reiterate for anyone that thinks it's easy, that you have to have a sound plan in the first place, and you have to be able to select the right horses. Also you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. Many here, yourself included, have a sound plan and use sound criteria, but it's possible some got lucky last season for all the reasons mentioned, and could catch a cold this season thinking it's easy. Making money takes time and effort, no little skill, and lots of form study. And not least, a good understanding of how the markets work and react.
      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

      Comment


      • I personally feel like I got off lightly with injuries this year

        none of my main bets missed the festival, even the ones I placed in March 2020

        i doubt that will happen again for a while

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        • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
          I personally feel like I got off lightly with injuries this year

          none of my main bets missed the festival, even the ones I placed in March 2020

          i doubt that will happen again for a while
          I agree.

          I looked back at my biggest Win Single bets (all over 1.5pts), and 8 of the 17 of them won.

          Biggest prices on each were 33/1, 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1.

          Of the ones that didnt make it, and cost me over 1pt, only 4 were lost pre-festival, at an average of 1.4pts for each (one died, two were injured and one didnt run after he joined WPM, after Christmas )

          Which meant that my 17 biggest bets all lined up, a
          nd then half of them won, which is definitely unique for me.


          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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          • Last season was very unique. Made a huge difference to all the top horses being injury free for this season with Aintree and Punchestown being cancelled. We'll never have as good a time again.

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            • It definitely felt like a one off and almost certainly was, but surely there's definitely now an element of being able to confidently disregard a large chunk of the British contingent, in a way we previously wouldn't have been able to? I don't see that one changing any time soon.

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              • Tickets on sale for fixtures outside of the festival today, everyone will differ but imo the Nov meeting is a great weekend especially the Sunday absolutely love the races on offer that day particularly the Greatwood. Generally it's a quieter day and being to able to stroll around Prestbury and take everything in without hustle and bustle is grand.
                Last edited by Outlaw; 13 July 2021, 05:55 PM.

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                • Originally posted by Outlaw View Post
                  Tickets on sale for fixtures outside of the festival today, everyone will differ but imo the Nov meeting is a great weekend especially the Sunday absolutely love the races on offer that day particularly the Greatwood. Generally it's a quieter day and being to able to stroll around Prestbury and take everything in without hustle and bustle is grand.
                  I couldn't argue with that, the November meeting is a great three days of racing, i also enjoy the October meeting, sort of breaks you in gently to the jumps season ! I went to the new years day meeting a couple of years back, couldn't believe how busy it was, town centre was gridlocked, i thought everyone would be still in bed nursing an hangover !

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                  • Originally posted by Ice View Post

                    I couldn't argue with that, the November meeting is a great three days of racing, i also enjoy the October meeting, sort of breaks you in gently to the jumps season ! I went to the new years day meeting a couple of years back, couldn't believe how busy it was, town centre was gridlocked, i thought everyone would be still in bed nursing an hangover !
                    I attended every meet the season pre covid & despite getting phenomenal value on an 18-28 pass half the fixtures I won’t go to again.

                    October meet isn’t Chelt worthy, International meet is ok but nothing more. New Years is ridiculously busy, massive social event. Trials day the best individual days racing outside the fez.

                    That was my take on it all.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Outlaw View Post

                      I attended every meet the season pre covid & despite getting phenomenal value on an 18-28 pass half the fixtures I won’t go to again.

                      October meet isn’t Chelt worthy, International meet is ok but nothing more. New Years is ridiculously busy, massive social event. Trials day the best individual days racing outside the fez.

                      That was my take on it all.
                      I've lived in the area all my life so obviously go to as many as possible. For me, the ground is the main issue for all the meetings before Christmas. If it's half decent, then the racing is very enjoyable, but it doesn't take much to turn it into a mud bath. There are also some ropey Friday cards knocking about.

                      I may be a bit of a snob, but I can't be having a 95 rated horse winning at Cheltenham! Great for connections, I know, but it's not for me.

                      Did you get to the Hunter Chase evening? That's so much fun!

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                      • Originally posted by Captain Chris View Post

                        I've lived in the area all my life so obviously go to as many as possible. For me, the ground is the main issue for all the meetings before Christmas. If it's half decent, then the racing is very enjoyable, but it doesn't take much to turn it into a mud bath. There are also some ropey Friday cards knocking about.

                        I may be a bit of a snob, but I can't be having a 95 rated horse winning at Cheltenham! Great for connections, I know, but it's not for me.

                        Did you get to the Hunter Chase evening? That's so much fun!
                        The festival was the last meeting (2020) before covid kicked off properly so unfortunately not. I won't lie my interest in hunter chasing sits between nil and zero but I would of attended merely for the day out as it's still decent with a couple of pals and to cross it off as another meet I have attended etc.

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                        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                          I completely agree with that synopsis. I think you've completely nailed it Istabraq.

                          I do think it's become increasingly important to have the basis of what you want backed before the end of September. Tipsters and social media moves markets. It starts late September and cranks up into overdrive through October. The bookies don't waste any opportunity to cut anything that's tipped up by anyone of influence, so essentially you have to be on before they publish or post.
                          I saw last night that Paul Ferguson's 'jumpers to follow' is going to be published September 10th this year, and likely won't be too long after that when Mark Howard's 'One Jump Ahead' will be out.

                          I am a fan of Mark Howard's book, particularly Declan Phelan's Irish Pointers section, which usually unearths some snippets / quotes of the Cheltenham targets.

                          As you point out in your post above, I find the mayhem usually begins from this point in - will come around soon too, that is for sure.

                          Comment


                          • See there is a Panorama programme next week focusing on what happens to racehorses that ha e career ending injuries etc, and welfare.

                            Have to wait and see what the content, evidence is.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Magpie View Post
                              See there is a Panorama programme next week focusing on what happens to racehorses that ha e career ending injuries etc, and welfare.

                              Have to wait and see what the content, evidence is.
                              There was an albeit brief segment near the end of Monday's Betfair podcast about this, the programme isn't expected to be too kind to the racing industry in regards horse welfare. There was no info as of yet on what yards, trainers, etc were involved in the production.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Magpie View Post
                                See there is a Panorama programme next week focusing on what happens to racehorses that ha e career ending injuries etc, and welfare.

                                Have to wait and see what the content, evidence is.
                                Lets be honest, I absolutely love horse racing, my life increasingly revolves around it these days, but it's definitely something that needs talking about properly because not only is so much of what happens just wrong (it's not difficult to find other exposes here and abroad of what happens to thoroughbreds deemed surplus to requirements, it's no secret, but the sport has done a superb job of making people think they all see out their days frolicking in fields and meadows), pretending it isn't happening risks the future of the sport if we don't continue to push for better, because it leaves it wide open, which is why you end up the focus of Panorama exposes.

                                Brings us back to many of the conversations happening during the whole Elliot picture-gate i.e. racehorses as sports stars, or racehorses as simply livestock/commodities and that people outside rural communities apparently just don't understand. In my opinion they are the former, most people are happy to talk of them as the former when they win championship/group races, when they make fortunes at stud etc... we can't treat the overwhelming majority that make up the also-rans as the latter just because it's convenient and saves money. Well, we can, but nobody should come crying if society decides in the coming decades that the sport is no longer palatable, a situation that really isn't all that difficult to envisage.
                                Last edited by Atlantic Viking; 14 July 2021, 01:28 PM.

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